Tom Thibodeau's Lack of Playoff Adjustments Will Cause Breakup with Bulls

It's no secret that Tom Thibodeau's job as head coach of the Chicago Bulls is on the line in these playoffs. A relationship that once held so much promise has deteriorated past the point of salvation.

In his first year as an NBA head coach in 2010, Thibodeau was named Coach of the Year. 

The Bulls won 62 games that season, the most in the entire league. They made quick work of the Pacers in Round 1 and Hawks in Round 2. Then LeBron James and the Heatles blitzed Thibs' Bulls in the Eastern Conference Finals, 4-1. 

Chicago hasn't been back since.

The Bulls need to conquer their demons—or in this case, a demon King and his Cavalier minions.

But a win over LeBron and the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference Semifinals won't be enough. Too much damage has been done already. It's "NBA Finals or bust" for Thibs, and as the end of the Bulls-Cavs series creeps nearer, "bust" is looking more and more likely.

The Bulls' postseason has been ugly. Thibs has never been known as an offensive mastermind, but Chicago is shooting just 35.5 percent from the field as a team in the playoffs.

He simply hasn't made smart adjustments, even when something works, such as Derrick Rose ball screens.

According to SportVU data from NBA.com, Rose excelled at ball screens in Game 4, scoring 1.16 points per play on 42 possessions (45 percent of all Rose possessions). Thibs used Rose in ball screens just 36 percent of the time in Game 5. Even if he wasn't as effective initially, those plays have worked all series, but Thibs just went away from it. 

For Chicago to sustain offensive momentum, it needs to screen for Rose and wear out Cleveland's defenders as much as possible.

While Chicago's defense has gotten even stinger, the intensified playoff defense of the opposition has rendered its offense inept for large portions of the game. 

The table below shows the drop Chicago has experienced in both scoring and scoring efficiency, though the Bulls' 97.1 defensive rating does lead all playoff teams:

Averages	PPG	FG%	Opp. PPG	Opp. FG%	OffRtg	DefRtg
Regular Season	100.8	44.2	97.8	43.5	104.7	101.5
Playoffs	98.1	35.5	92.5	40.6	101.4	97.1

Still, it's amazing Chicago has come even this far with such lousy offensive displays. 

The Bulls have been given every opportunity in the world to thwart the first chapter of LeBron's fairytale return to Cleveland. 

Kevin Love is gone for the entire postseason. J.R. Smith was suspended for the first two games of this series. Kyrie Irving has admirably played through left knee tendinitis but hasn't been 100 percent. Iman Shumpert has dealt with a lingering groin strain.

Even LeBron sustained a left ankle injury in Game 4, though his Game 5 performance reminded us that mortal injuries need not apply to the King.

And still, the Bulls find themselves down 3-2 heading into Thursday night's pivotal Game 6.

Granted, Chicago hasn't entirely avoided injury, either.

Thibodeau hasn't had the services of All-Star center Paul Gasol since he sustained a hamstring injury midway through Game 3. Gasol is expected to be back tonight, according to Bleacher Report's Sean Highkin, but how effective he can be is anyone's guess:

With Gasol back tonight, Thibs would be wise to utilize the high screens that worked so effectively between Gasol and the Bulls guards in Game 1. According to SportVU data, Gasol received a pass on 34 percent of screens he set, shooting on 18 percent of those plays and finishing with eight points out of such sets, the most of any player in the game. 

Thibs needs to use Gasol's ability to stretch the defense, which will allow Rose and Butler to get back into the paint with ease, something that hasn't come easily with Gasol sidelined. 

Even if Gasol can play extended minutes, Thibodeau cannot start making baffling decisions with the season on the line, like he did with Rookie of the Year runner-up Nikola Mirotic earlier in this series.

Highkin explained Thibodeau's sometimes confounding decision-making following the first two games of the Bulls-Cavs series, games in which Mirotic totaled just nine minutes:

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This isn’t the first time a Tom Thibodeau rotation decision has caused confusion. Those decisions are responsible in part for why his relationship with the Bulls' front office has gone to the place it has. He has his guys, and they’re the ones who are going to get any minutes that are up for grabs. It’s a reality the Bulls have had to live with all year.

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Even if Thibodeau makes smart adjustments, the Bulls are still likely to lose. LeBron was unstoppable last game and knows that if he starts the game aggressively and attacks from the post, there isn't much the Bulls can or will do to stop him.

Whether it comes in Game 6 at home or Game 7 in Cleveland, this will in all likelihood be the end of Thibs' tenure in Chicago.

Most everyone agrees that little beyond a parade through downtown Chicago with the Larry O'Brien Trophy riding shotgun will salvage the damage already done in the Thibodeau-Bulls relationship.

Sports Illustrated asked its panel of five basketball experts which coach they believed would be employed by their current team at the end of this season: David Blatt or Thibodeau. All five respondents believed Thibs was on his way out. 

Ben Golliver explained his reasoning:

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That said, the Bulls are already stuck in a purgatory with Derrick Rose's knees; a fourth straight loss to James, ongoing health problems for Joakim Noah and all the same complaints about Thibodeau's minutes management adds up to a truly frustrating deja vu for the organization. The particularly heartbreaking and perplexing nature of Game 4 doesn't help matters either. 

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The blow would obviously be cushioned considering the wealth of attractive jobs currently on the market, as Golliver noted:

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Plus, the desire to part could easily be a two-way street. Multiple jobs are currently open—New Orleans, Orlando, and Denver—and Thibodeau would be one of the most sought-after (and highest-priced) candidates if he winds up entering the job market thanks to his reputation as a hard-charging defensive innovator with consistent postseason success. 

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However, there could be a move available that few would ever expect, one that sounds like it could have been ripped from the script of a bizarre basketball-themed Spaghetti Western flick written by Quentin Tarantino, according to SI's Jeremy Woo:

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Let's examine Chicago's nightmare scenario. Bulls lose Game 6, Thibs gets canned hastily, Blatt bumbles onward, but not enough to satiate James and gets the axe too. LeBron wants a coach to maximize the potential of his supporting cast, and Dan Gilbert's first call goes to...Thibodeau. Cleveland would be the best win-now job available, and the Bulls would be forced to deal not only with James, but their old mastermind, who knows the team inside and out. I’m already getting cold sweats.

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How dark and poetic that would be: Thibs' teaming up with his old nemesis on a team that has held a grudge against the Bulls ever since this shot:

I wouldn't go as far to say that Thibodeau will land in Cleveland. The Cavaliers look poised for a title run, meaning Blatt's job should be safe for at least another year, especially considering the injuries Cleveland has had to endure.

There are several attractive jobs still out there, though, as Golliver noted: New Orleans, Orlando and Denver.

Steve Kyler of Basketball Insiders reports that Orlando is willing to deal a second-round pick or more in exchange for Thibodeau, while also meeting his hefty salary demands:

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Sources close to the situation say not only would the Magic give the Bulls compensation (likely a second-round pick or two) for the chance to get at Thibodeau, sources also said the Magic would meet the expected $7-8 million per year coaching salary Thibodeau likely commands in his next deal.

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Reports have also surfaced that the Pelicans are waiting for the Bulls to finish the season in the hopes that Thibodeau may become available, according to John Reid of the Times Picayune: "League sources confirmed on Wednesday that the Pelicans are waiting to see if the Chicago Bulls and coach Tom Thibodeau are going to part ways. If Thibodeau is let go by the Bulls, he could possibly emerge as a candidate for the Pelicans job."

Thibs could become one of a number of attractive free-agent coaches this offseason:

Coach	Seasons	W/L	W/L%	Playoff W/L	Playoff W/L%
Tom Thibodeau	5	255-139	.647	23-27	.460
Scott Brooks	7	338-207	.620	39-34	.534
Mike D'Antoni	12	455-426	.516	26-33	.441
Alvin Gentry	12	335-370	.475	12-9	.571
Mike Malone	2	39-67	.368	0-0	.000

We can play the guessing game all we want, but no one will know for sure where Thibodeau will land after what will likely be an ugly divorce from Chicago following a second-round playoff exit.

Regardless of how it ends, this is a badly needed separation for both teams. 

And to think that just five years ago the future looked so bright. 

All team and player statistics courtesy of NBA.com, unless otherwise noted.

All coaching statistics courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com.