Washington Redskins: Realistic 2015 Projections for Every Major Stat Category
As it is for every NFL team, the endgame for the Washington Redskins in 2015 is to return to the postseason.
With new general manager Scot McCloughan in charge, the team has taken steps toward accomplishing this goal by turning over its roster.
But for the bottom line to change—you know, the win-loss record?—the stats will have to back the improvement the team's made on paper.
With that in mind, let's project out Washington's showing in every major stat category for the upcoming season.
Unless it's stated otherwise, all statistics are courtesy of ESPN.com.
Passing Offense
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2014 Stats
- Passing Yards - 4,407 (11th)
- Completion Percentage - 66.5 (4th)
- Touchdowns - 18 (27th)
- Team QBR - 39.3 (26th)
- Sacks - 58 (31st)
Washington's quarterbacks were cast as the scapegoats for the team's dismal record last season and for good reason.
The trio of Colt McCoy, Kirk Cousins and Robert Griffin III had a combined QBR of 39.3 and were sacked 58 times.
Even with that said, the team's passing game wasn't all gloom. The Skins' quarterbacks did tally over 4,400 yards through the air and completed 66.5 percent of their passes.
With the support of a solid receiving corps and a bolstered offensive line, there's reason to believe the team's passing attack can improve on last year's showing.
Named as the starting quarterback by head coach Jay Gruden while he was speaking with reporters, the onus will fall on Griffin to make this improvement a reality.
His struggles adjusting to Gruden's offense are well-chronicled. A year under his belt in Gruden's system will help Griffin with the mental side of playing quarterback, but the key to a resurgence from him will be throwing the ball downfield.
In 2012, he completed over 56 percent of his passes thrown 10-plus yards downfield. Fast forward to 2014, and that number dropped to 48 percent.
Gun-shy to make such throws, he was also sacked 33 times.
With the support the team has thrown behind Griffin with its roster moves at receiver and along the offensive line, his regression stops here.
Griffin won't be elite, but the Redskins at the very least will receive league-average play from him in 2015.
2015 Projections
- Passing Yards - 3,600
- Completion Percentage - 64
- Touchdowns - 22
- Team QBR - 51.0
- Sacks - 38
Passing Defense
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2014 Stats
- Passing Yards - 3,990 (24th)
- Completion Percentage - 66.5 (28th)
- Touchdowns - 32 (32nd)
- Sacks - 36 (21st)
Seeing how bad Washington's pass defense was last season, aren't you the least bit curious how RG3 and Company looked in practice?
It couldn't have been bad.
Shaun Hill, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Mark Sanchez are quality backups on their best days. And even they proved to be serviceable starters when opposed by the Redskins' porous pass defense last season.
With that said, it comes as no surprise that McCloughan acquired three new starters in the secondary. Gone are Ryan Clark, Brandon Meriweather and David Amerson—just in the starting lineup.
In their place will be Jeron Johnson, Dashon Goldson and Chris Culliver.
Are these changes enough, though?
Johnson and Goldson have their own question marks—experience and tackling—and we haven't even touched on the holdovers from last year's secondary.
Bashaud Breeland is a capable starter if he cuts down on his penalties, but the trio of DeAngelo Hall, Tracy Porter and Amerson doesn't inspire much confidence.
This puts the onus on the team's pass rush to stymie opposing passing attacks. The loss of Brian Orakpo stings in this regard. Then again, with his injury history, life without Orakpo is something the Redskins are already accustomed to.
Ryan Kerrigan was a one-man show in 2014 with 13.5 of the team's 36 sacks. Paired with rookie Preston Smith, Trent Murphy and a stout defensive front, Kerrigan will have the support this go-round to pick up the pass defense.
Washington won't go from worst to first here, but behind its pass rush, it'll field a middle-of-the-road pass defense.
2015 Projections
- Passing Yards - 3,800
- Completion Percentage - 63.5
- Touchdowns - 29
- Sacks - 40
Rushing Offense
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2014 Stats
- Rushing Yards - 1,691 (19th)
- Yards per Rush - 4.2 (14th)
- Touchdowns - 15 (9th)
The strength of the team as far back as 2012, the Washington running game underwhelmed in Gruden's inaugural season.
Gruden wanted to incorporate more of a power-running scheme. The problem was he lacked the personnel up front to do so. Well, that's changed.
Headlined by No. 5 pick Brandon Scherff, the team drafted three offensive linemen who fit the physical approach Gruden, McCloughan and new offensive line coach Bill Callahan want.
It'd be naive to think all three of these rookies would see extensive action in 2015. With the presence of sophomores Morgan Moses and Spencer Long on the roster, though, there isn't a need for them to—outside of Scherff, of course.
Callahan won't have an offensive line the caliber of the one he left in Dallas at his disposal. Still, just by emphasizing the run more, the Redskins' Alfred Morris-led attack will churn out more yards.
Remember, Washington was 21st in rushing attempts in 2014.
A better showing from Griffin at quarterback would go a long way in keeping defenses honest against the Redskins' running game. Regardless of his play, though, they will field a top-10 rushing attack.
2015 Projections
- Rushing Yards - 2,000
- Yards per Rush - 4.4
- Touchdowns - 17
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Rushing Defense
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2014 Stats
- Rushing Yards - 1,722 (12th)
- Yards per Rush - 4.1 (13th)
- Touchdowns - 11 (14th)
A strength of the defense a season ago, the Redskins run defense should be even better in 2015.
Why you ask? Well, in place of an injured Barry Cofield and Stephen Bowen, the team now has the likes of Stephen Paea, Terrance Knighton and Ricky Jean-Francois along the defensive line.
Oh, and don't forget about holdovers Jason Hatcher, Chris Baker and Frank Kearse. With Keenan Robinson, Perry Riley, Trent Murphy, Kerrigan and a rotation up front that's two-deep at each position, the defense won't fall victim to fatigue and attrition like it did in 2014.
2015 Projections
- Rushing Yards - 1,600
- Yards per Rush - 3.9
- Touchdowns - 9
3rd-Down Efficiency
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2014 Stats
- Third-Down Conversion Percentage, Offense - 31.5 (30th)
- Third-Down Conversion Percentage, Defense - 43 (26th)
The money down in the NFL, third downs were a nightmare for the Redskins last season. More than anything, their struggles here explain why they were watching the playoffs at home.
Of last year's playoff participants, only the Dallas Cowboys, Carolina Panthers and Detroit Lions ranked in the bottom third of the league on third downs on offense or defense. And here Washington is struggling on both sides of the ball.
How does this get fixed?
It starts with penalties.
The Redskins were the most penalized team in the league last season. Not each one occurred on third down, but in lengthening or shortening the distance before the first-down marker, their penalties hampered both the offense and defense.
Specifically on offense, the team has to do a better job of gaining more yards on first and second down. In 2014, Washington faced 3rd-and-short (two yards or less from a first down) just 35 times.
Furthermore, it faced 3rd-and-long (eight yards or more from a first down) 62 times. With more of a commitment running the ball, at the very least, the Redskins can cut down the number of 3rd-and-longs the offense faces.
2015 Projections
- Third-Down Conversion Percentage, Offense - 38
- Third-Down Conversion Percentage, Defense - 40
Turnover Margin
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2014 Stats
- Takeaways - 19 (25th)
- Giveaways - 31 (29th)
- Turnover Margin - minus-12 (30th)
More games are lost than won in the NFL—or the cliche goes something like that.
In the case of the Redskins, this statement carries a lot of weight. On countless occasions, the team— literally!—gave away the game.
Looking to the defense, it lacked playmakers. And to be frank, not much has changed in this regard this offseason.
Culliver did have four interceptions last season, but next to him Hall is the only noted ball hawk in the secondary.
Johnson has just one start under his belt, so he's an unknown at this point. As for Goldson, he may deliver the occasional big hit, but his glory days have long passed. He has one interception combined the past two years.
On offense, by merely keeping Cousins out of the lineup, Washington can keep its turnovers down.
He led the team with nine interceptions in just six games. According to SportingCharts.com, his interception rate of 4.8 percentage was the third-worst in the league.
2015 Projections
- Takeaways - 20
- Giveaways - 22
- Turnover Margin - minus-2
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