Russell Wilson Isn't Worth Elite QB Contract for Seahawks

Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks are facing a crossroads in what has been a fruitful marriage for both sides since Wilson was drafted in 2012. It seems every starting quarterback seeking a second contract automatically receives a deal in excess of $100 million total value, even if it isn't warranted. 

Nothing about Wilson suggests he doesn't deserve to be the next quarterback with that kind of extension. He's turned into a superstar, the face of a franchise that's made the playoffs each season he's been under center, winning one Super Bowl and appearing in another. 

So why do the Seahawks appear hesitant to go that far with the 26-year-old Wilson?

According to Danny O'Neil of ESPN 710 in Seattle, Wilson and the Seahawks appear to be miles apart on the money in a potential extension with $100 million not even being discussed at the moment:

"

Over the past few weeks, it has become possible to sketch the general shape of some of the negotiations, not to provide hard-and-fast negotiating points but to show some of the issues the two sides will need to work out in order to bridge a gap that right now can be counted in the millions. Actually, it's closer to 10s of millions.

...

Yeah, that's ($120 million) not happening judging by the opening tenor of negotiations. In fact, the Seahawks haven't put $100 million on the table right now. The offer of a four-year extension is believed to be worth closer to $80 million.

"

A four-year extension for Wilson wouldn't be a terrible idea for him; as O'Neil mentions it will allow him to renegotiate a third deal at the age of 30. The potential money could be even better if the salary cap keeps rising, as could be reasonably expected given the nine-year, $27 billion television contract signed in 2011.

However, given the success Seattle has had with Wilson leading the offense, the franchise should be itching to keep its starting quarterback happy. The Seahawks have already locked up the rest of their young core with Richard Sherman, Kam Chancellor, Earl Thomas, Marshawn Lynch, K.J. Wright, Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril all signed at least through 2018. 

Conor Orr of NFL.com attempted to put his finger on the pulse as to why the Seahawks haven't gotten to a number that Wilson feels willing to accept so far:

"

The problem with this deal is that it's rather unprecedented. Wilson made the Super Bowl twice in his first three seasons and won once. He has more wins than any other quarterback in his first three seasons.

So is that the product of a heady quarterback, or a solid quarterback who has benefited from an excellent team around him? Remember, Seattle has had tons of flexibility because of Wilson's third-round pick salary.

"

The Seahawks are a rarity in today's NFL. This franchise has been built on a foundation of power running with Lynch, who got his long-term commitment from the team in March after nearly 12 months of negotiations, and an elite defense. 

There's no denying that Wilson has been a valuable part of what Seattle has built, but trying to put an exact dollar figure on that value is difficult. The Seahawks have not ranked higher than 31st in pass attempts in any of Wilson's three seasons at quarterback. 

Christian Petersen/Getty Images

In the two biggest games of Seattle's season last year, against the Green Bay Packers in the NFC Championship and New England Patriots in the Super Bowl, Wilson was a combined 26-of-50 with four total touchdowns (three passing) and five interceptions. 

Wilson does deserve credit for throwing the game-winning touchdown in overtime against the Packers, but one moment of brilliance doesn't immediately gloss over 60-plus minutes of horrid football. 

When the Seahawks lost to the Patriots thanks to Malcolm Butler's miracle interception at the goal line, while there was some talk of what a great read it was by the young defensive back, the bigger story was: Why didn't Lynch get the ball in that spot?

How many elite quarterbacks are going to be questioned for throwing the ball with the Super Bowl on the line? You can say Pete Carroll deserves criticism for the play call, which he does, but Wilson ultimately made the throw and isn't blameless in the outcome.

Two games don't define a career, but think of the last time Seattle won a big game specifically because of Wilson. The defense destroyed Peyton Manning in the Super Bowl two years ago.

The best example is the playoff win this year against a Carolina Panthers team that won seven games in the regular season, as Wilson went 15-of-22 for 268 yards and three touchdowns. 

Wilson absolutely should be asking for the most money he can get, especially after seeing other less-accomplished quarterbacks like Andy Dalton and Colin Kaepernick get big-money, long-term commitments from the Cincinnati Bengals and San Francisco 49ers, respectively, last year. 

But Kaepernick's $126 million total value deal with the 49ers could be a model the Seahawks look to use for Wilson, as it was later reported by Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk that San Francisco worked the language so it can cut Kaepernick at any time before April 1 without being penalized. The contract also includes other de-escalator clauses that will lower his salary unless he meets specific requirements. 

The gold standard for quarterback deals is Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers, who agreed to a five-year, $110 million extension in 2013 that included a $33.25 million signing bonus and $54 million guaranteed, according to Spotrac. 

Christian Petersen/Getty Images

Rodgers is regarded as the best quarterback in the NFL and has been named league MVP two of the last four years. If anyone is worth that kind of investment, it's the Packers star. 

Wilson isn't at that level because no one else in the NFL is right now, but he is coming into these negotiations looking to cash in for the first time in his career. 

As Jason La Canfora of CBS Sports wrote, Wilson has been one of the NFL's great bargains because the Seahawks got him in the third round, which allowed them to keep his salary down over the duration of his rookie contract:

"

Taking what had been the best bargain in all of pro sports the past three years -- maybe in the history of the NFL -- averaging just $750,000 a year and paying him $20 million a season with, say, $80 million guaranteed, would be a huge pill for anyone to swallow. ... It's one of many elements that make Wilson something of an anomaly and what makes the intricacies of this negotiation so compelling to watch unfold.

"

Don't simply cite wins or the team success in relation to Wilson's value. Wins for a quarterback are about as useful in evaluating performance as they are for a starting pitcher in baseball—which is to say, not at all—and championships are a product of what the team does. 

Tom Brady was great in the Super Bowl win over Seattle and a worthy MVP choice, but the Patriots don't win that game without Butler making the interception. 

No one is suggesting Wilson's value to the Seahawks is irrelevant, but his performance does take on an entirely different context with a $20 million price tag instead of the $1.5 million he will make in the final year of his rookie deal, per Over The Cap. 

There's plenty of time for the Seahawks to work out a deal with Wilson before he becomes a free agent after 2015. The front office is smart to negotiate on its terms and not let the shine of team success cloud its judgment on how much its young quarterback is really worth.