Predicting Preseason AP Top 25 Poll for 2015 College Football Season
Whoever said rankings don't matter has somehow managed to ignore how big a deal the Associated Press Preseason Top 25 Poll is in college football.
Released in the weeks leading up to each season, this prediction of the upcoming year's top teams is one of the most talked-about items of the offseason. It's as much of a guess as anything, with voters setting their ballots based on a combination of past results and expected performance while also factoring in any significant news that's occurred since the last games were played in January.
According to sportswriter Phil Steele, the tendency is for voters to give the most weight to the makeup of returning starters, how teams did in their bowl game and where they ended last season in the rankings.
Even though we're still more than 16 weeks away from the start of the 2015 season, we'll attempt to project what this year's poll will look like. Using Steele's criteria as a guideline, here's our take on what the AP voters will say in a few months.
Others Receiving Votes
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Mississippi State (11th in final 2014-15 AP poll)
Unranked to begin last season, the Bulldogs rose to No. 1 and held that spot for five weeks while running out to a school-best 9-0 start. Losses in three of four down the stretch took some of the shine off that year, though, and while quarterback Dak Prescott is back for his senior campaign, he doesn't have much to work with.
Missouri (14th)
Tigers fans should be used to the preseason snub by now, as they weren't in last year's initial AP poll after winning the SEC East in 2013 and finishing fifth nationally. Another East Division title, another bowl win and another high end-of-season ranking won't result in a spot in the 2015 rankings, though, at least not at the start.
Nebraska (Not ranked)
While winning at least nine games every year might not be good enough for the fanbase and administration, what the Cornhuskers did on an annual basis under Bo Pelini was plenty to get into the preseason rankings and stay ranked for most of the year. New coach Mike Riley won't get the same consideration, though, and as a result Nebraska will start outside the top 25 for the first time since 2008.
Stanford (Not ranked)
Last year was an anomaly for the Cardinal, which from 2010-13 won 46 games and spent most of that time in the top 10. Stanford should be better than 2014's 8-5 mark, and having a senior quarterback will aid that cause, but defensive losses will make this team have to earn its ranking rather than be gifted it.
Utah (21st)
The Utes spent most of the second half of last season in the rankings, holding their own in the ultra-tough Pac-12 South Division. They return a workhorse running back in Devontae Booker and a good number of the players who helped them lead FBS in sacks in 2014, but not top pass-rusher Nate Orchard.
25. Wisconsin
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Final 2014-15 AP ranking: 13th
Returning starters: 13
With the departure of a 2,500-yard rusher and the arrival of a coach who is likely to shift Wisconsin from its recent run-heavy approach to one with more passing, we really don't know what to make of the Badgers for this season.
Well, other than to presume that they'll be pretty good, like they are almost every season.
Wisconsin has been in the preseason top 25 every year since 2010 and in 17 of the past 18 years. Expect that streak to continue.
24. Oklahoma State Cowboys
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Final 2014-15 AP ranking: Not ranked
Returning staters: 16
Oklahoma State was a few minutes away from the Fiesta Bowl in December 2013 but didn't start the following season ranked. After a promising performance against Florida State to open last year and then five straight wins, the Cowboys had risen to 15th in the polls before going on a five-game losing streak.
But there's promise coming out of Stillwater, as a late two-game win streak and a large group of returners should make Oklahoma State one of a handful of teams that split votes for the final spots in the preseason poll.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
23. Boise State Broncos
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Final 2014-15 AP ranking: 16th
Returning starters: 16
Last year's preseason poll didn't include any teams from outside the Power Five conferences, yet non-power teams made up 12 percent of the final rankings. That trio of Boise State, Marshall and Memphis are all expected to be good again in 2015, but only Boise has the reputation that warrants giving them votes.
The Broncos, who knocked off Arizona in the Fiesta Bowl, graduated its quarterback and saw running back Jay Ajayi turn pro early. But almost everyone else is back, which has prompted SB Nation's Bob Connelly to say they have a strong chance to post a perfect record for the third time in a decade.
"From a stat perspective, the Broncos are far and away the safest mid-major bet," Connelly wrote. "The question isn't whether they'll be good, it's whether they'll be undefeated."
22. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
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Final 2014-15 AP ranking: 8th
Returning starters: 13
While the prevailing trend in preseason voting tends to lean toward overvaluing late-season and bowl performances, there's always an exception that proves the rule. This year, that exception will be Georgia Tech.
The Yellow Jackets emerged from a crowded and middling ACC Coastal to nearly knock off defending national champion Florida State and then run past Mississippi State in the Orange Bowl. They did it with an old-school offense, the option, that bucked the trend of uptempo assaults and did so with consistent success.
But aside from quarterback and leading rusher Marcus Thomas, the rest of Tech's option weapons have moved on. There's a strong line to work behind, but those kind of losses are apt to make voters worry that 2014 was a one-year thing and Tech doesn't have the staying power to be a perennial standout, at least when it comes to top-10 status.
21. Texas A&M
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Final 2014-15 AP ranking: Not ranked
Returning starters: 15
Few teams have seen larger jumps and dips in the polls during the last three seasons than Texas A&M, but since coach Kevin Sumlin got the Aggies into the national spotlight in 2012, they've rarely stepped outside it.
They shot into the top 10 in 2012 after shocking Alabama, then in 2013 had two occasions where they fell at least seven spots after a loss. Last season, A&M began 21st but after one week were ninth, rising as high as fifth...before being unranked three weeks later.
That kind of fluctuation makes projecting how a team will fare very difficult, but since preseason polls are built on hope, this will give A&M a spot despite its 8-5 record last season.
20. Arizona Wildcats
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Final 2014-15 AP ranking: 19th
Returning starters: 12
Arizona won the Pac-12 South last season, emerging from arguably the toughest division in FBS behind a roster that was overflowing with freshmen and sophomore contributors. That young talent wasn't able to finish strong in 2014, with losses to Oregon and Boise State, but its return is enough to warrant the Wildcats' opening in the rankings for the first time since 1999.
Coach Rich Rodriguez has resurrected his career after a disaster of a run in Michigan, and despite failing to produce a draft pick in two of his three seasons he's won at least eight games each year. That kind of consistency tends to translate into increased expectations, which starts with a preseason ranking.
19. LSU Tigers
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Final 2014-15 AP ranking: Not ranked
Returning starters: 15
If the preseason polls were based on how much voters liked the coaches, LSU would be in contention to be No. 1 almost every year. Les Miles is just that well-regarded, and even subpar results the last few years haven't led to reduced ratings the following seasons.
That's why the Tigers will still find themselves in the preseason top 25, even after losing five games and having a train wreck at the quarterback position. Miles' reputation will mask the on-field red flags, while the play of rising sophomore running back Leonard Fournette won't hurt either.
18. Tennessee Volunteers
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Final 2014-15 AP ranking: Not ranked
Returning starters: 18
Tennessee hasn't been ranked in any AP poll since September 2012, when it spent a week at No. 23 before losing at home to Florida en route to a 5-7 record that led to coach Derek Dooley's firing. The Volunteers haven't been ranked to start a year since 2008, but that didn't last long, as they dropped their opener to UCLA and after going 5-7 forced out longtime coach Phillip Fulmer.
So why, then, will Tennessee open 2015 in the polls? Call it the Butch Jones factor, as the coach has this program trending upward, unlike at any point in more than a decade, and voters will want to project that further ahead for continued improvement.
The Vols could also benefit from the recent trend of teams coming out of nowhere (read: unranked to begin the season) to become major players, such as Auburn and Missouri in 2013 and Mississippi State and TCU last season. Of that group, only MSU had offseason momentum, so Tennessee might be compared to the Bulldogs and earn some early hype.
17. Oklahoma Sooners
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Final 2014-15 AP ranking: Not ranked
Returning starters: 13
If ever there was a program that epitomizes the inaccuracy of preseason polls, it's Oklahoma. In fact, it's become so common that the Sooners end up woefully over- or underrated that their fans would be better off turning a blind eye to the first ranking.
Rich DeCray of SB Nation's Crimson and Cream Machine blog illustrated this last year after Oklahoma opened at No. 4 in the AP poll. Though he used coaches' polls for his data, the same story would have been told: Under coach Bob Stoops, the Sooners ended the year at least four spots below their preseason ranking five times and four or more spots above in two seasons.
Make that six times falling far short of projections, as the Sooners ended 2014 unranked.
These performances haven't influenced preseason rankings before, but last year's letdown was especially notable and will in turn lead voters to be far less optimistic about Oklahoma...though not to the point that they won't begin the season ranked for the 16th straight year.
16. Arkansas Razorbacks
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Final 2014-15 AP ranking: Not ranked
Returning starters: 15
Few teams spent more time on the cusp of success last year than Arkansas, which showed vast improvement in Bret Bielema's second season but didn't have the results to go with that until November. But after a pair of shutout wins over ranked teams followed by a dominant bowl performance, the Razorbacks have gone from having potential to being triumphant.
And since AP voters tend to put a lot of value in end-of-season momentum, Arkansas could end up being one of the most overrated teams in the preseason poll. This doesn't meant it won't be deserving of the ranking, but rather that it will be this year's trendy pick as a breakout team.
15. Clemson Tigers
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Final 2014-15 AP ranking: 15th
Returning starters: 11
Clemson still has work to do to get into the next tier of college football powers, especially as long as it fluctuates back and forth between being good on offense and defense. But with the potential for being an offensive juggernaut this year even better than when Tajh Boyd was around, the Tigers will again be a dangerous team.
Much will hinge on the health of quarterback Deshaun Watson, who teased us with his talents last year in between injury absences. If he can come back from ACL surgery and show what he did as a true freshman, Clemson has a legitimate chance to finally claim the ACC title and dethrone Florida State.
But the Tigers will still have to prove themselves, and their first ranking will reflect this when they once again start out behind Florida State in the preseason poll.
14. Arizona State Sun Devils
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Final 2014-15 AP ranking: 12th
Returning starters: 16
With as many as six games on its schedule against teams that could be among the preseason top 25, Arizona State is going to be a major player when it comes to determining not just who wins the Pac-12 but also who could play in the national semifinals.
And with coach Todd Graham establishing the Sun Devils as one of the most consistent programs in the country the last few years, they themselves will be in contention for big things.
ASU did lose a first-round draft pick in safety Damarious Randall and its top receiver (Jaelen Strong), but it might be better at quarterback with Mike Bercovici than it was with Taylor Kelly. The Sun Devils also have one of the country's most versatile offensive stars in running back-turned-receiver D.J. Foster, as well as an aggressive defense that has the potential to make waves.
13. UCLA Bruins
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Final 2014-15 AP ranking: 10th
Returning starters: 18
Jim Mora has returned UCLA to what used to be a regular spot among the top programs in the country, and last season the Bruins were considered a trendy national title pick. They couldn't live up to that hype, as three home losses showed, and with franchise quarterback Brett Hundley leaving for the NFL, it might seem like the window has closed.
But every end leads to a beginning, and if things go according to plan UCLA will already have its next franchise passer ready to go in the form of true freshman Josh Rosen. The early enrollee was quite impressive in spring practice, and the prospects for what he might be able to accomplish even in his first year will lead to some lofty preseason projections.
UCLA might not be a title contender again, but it will be in the hunt for the Pac-12 and will remain in the conversation for the playoffs.
12. Ole Miss Rebels
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Final 2014-15 AP ranking: 17th
Returning starters: 16
Last year was a breakout performance for the Ole Miss program, which began 7-0 and earned a landmark victory over Alabama. A lack of offensive spark (keyed by the loss of top wide receiver Laquon Treadwell) led to a late-season slide, but the foundation was laid for the Rebels to replicate that success over multiple years.
Ole Miss' defense was the story in 2014 and will be again this year, though in a different manner. The "Landsharks" had one of the best secondaries in the country a season ago, and now the emphasis moves to a stellar front seven.
And that offense, which lived and died with quarterback Bo Wallace's gunslinging, could be much better depending on who coach Hugh Freeze goes with among three candidates that include former Clemson passer Chad Kelly.
11. Georgia Bulldogs
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Final 2014-15 AP ranking: 9th
Returning starters: 12
For most FBS schools, it would be a good "problem" to perennially finish in the top 10 but not be in contention for a national championship. At Georgia, it's interpreted as a sign that coach Mark Richt has lost control of his program.
The Bulldogs will again enter a season with the expectation that this time they'll get over the hump and not only win the SEC East but the conference championship and be in the hunt for the national title. This will be for a handful of reasons, most notably how promising Nick Chubb looked as a freshman and how much better the running back figures to be as a sophomore.
What's ended up costing Georgia in past years have been some poor in-season performances, particularly in games it should have won. But those shortcomings tend to be pushed aside when it comes to projecting the future, and again the Bulldogs will be given the benefit of the doubt with their preseason ranking.
10. Florida State Seminoles
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Final 2014-15 AP ranking: 5th (tied)
Returning starters: 11
A nearly unanimous No. 1 pick in last year's preseason poll, Florida State was in the position Ohio State figures to be this fall and managed to keep on winning despite less-than-perfect conditions and plenty of naysayers. The Seminoles fell short at the end, and the loss to Oregon in the Rose Bowl felt like the end of an era, especially after an amazing 11 players from that team were drafted.
But top-tier programs like FSU don't rebuild but rather reload. They also don't see huge dips in preseason rankings, even after losing so many significant pieces from the year before.
The Seminoles will be ranked based on promise, with coach Jimbo Fisher's great work on the recruiting trail translating into the belief that the next wave of stars will be as good as the just-departed ones.
9. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
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Final 2014-15 AP ranking: Not ranked
Returning starters: 18
As much as AP voters tend to lean on the past to influence the present, there are certain teams that get the slate wiped clean and are given a fresh start. Notre Dame is high on that list, which is why a four-game losing streak last November will be disregarded but an impressive bowl win over LSU will not.
It also helps that one of the key factors in that late-season slide, quarterback Everett Golson, will not be a part of the equation this year after the senior announced his intention to transfer last week.
The ball now belongs to Malik Zaire, one of the few non-starters from 2014 who will be in a position of prominence this season. Notre Dame will be one of the most experienced teams in FBS this year, which will lead to expectations that the 2015 Fighting Irish will be able to reach the level of the 2012 team that played for the national title.
8. Auburn Tigers
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Final 2014-15 AP ranking: 22nd
Returning starters: 12
Could Auburn be the new Oklahoma, at least when it comes to preseason rankings?
This can be looked at as both a good and bad thing, as Oklahoma has had a history of landing lofty spots in the initial AP polls regardless of how the previous season went, though on several occasions the Sooners fell far short of expectations when the games were actually played.
A case in point: Oklahoma started last season fourth but ended up unranked with five losses. Auburn was sixth to begin 2014 yet also lost five games, and its final ranking was a season low.
But there is hope that Auburn will get back on track this year with a more balanced offense behind quarterback Jeremy Johnson and a much-improved defense thanks to the hiring of former Florida coach Will Muschamp as coordinator. Thus, the Tigers will get a huge poll boost from the end of 2014 to the beginning of 2015.
7. USC Trojans
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Final 2014-15 AP ranking: 20th
Returning starters: 14
It's been three years since USC began a season in the preseason top 10, when it began at No. 1 in the 2012 rankings only to drop out of the poll by mid-November and finish with a 7-6 record.
This year's Trojans team might be as talented as that 2012 version, and after a strong finish to last year under first-year coach Steve Sarkisian expectations at the Los Angeles Coliseum are returning to the level they were when USC was a perennial national title contender.
Even with three straight losses to crosstown rival UCLA, USC will begin 2015 higher in the rankings based on a combination of returning talent and historical reputation.
"USC has the look of a larger-than-life college football team, earning it the benefit of the doubt when setting expectations for a coming season," Matt Brown of Sports on Earth wrote.
6. Oregon Ducks
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Final 2014-15 AP ranking: 2nd
Returning starters: 12
The last time Oregon was coming off a spot in the national championship, it opened the following year third in the AP poll and after remained in the top 13 the entire season. Whether the Ducks will have a similar result in 2015 remains to be seen, but their initial ranking won't be as high because of the uncertainty at a very important position.
That 2011 Ducks team still had Darron Thomas, who started at quarterback in the 2010-11 BCS title game. Last year's starter, Heisman winner Marcus Mariota, is now in rookie camp with the Tennessee Titans, and his former team exited spring camp with a still-yet-to-get-going competition to find his successor.
Backup Jeff Lockie has looked great this offseason, but Eastern Washington transfer Vernon Adams is set to arrive in June and get a shot at the job. The competition might not be settled when the preseason poll votes are due, and as a result Oregon's initial ranking will reflect this uncertainty at quarterback.
5. Michigan State Spartans
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Final 2014-15 AP ranking: 5th (tied)
Returning starters: 13
After Michigan State lost at Oregon and Ohio State fell to Virginia Tech in the second week of last season, the Big Ten Conference was being read its last rites. But when the year was over, that conference had more teams in the top six than any other league, and Michigan State was the top-rated non-champion in the final poll.
Don't expect AP voters to expect how strong the Big Ten finished, especially the top teams, and MSU figures to benefit from being the second-best team in a conference that produced the national champion.
It also helps that the Spartans will have a pretty darn good team in 2015, with its two most notable players—quarterback Connor Cook and defensive end Shilique Calhoun—opting to return for their senior years rather than go high in the NFL draft. That sort of dedication to team success will resonate among voters and also lead them to value those holdovers more than the losses of 1,500-yard rusher Jeremy Langford, top receiver Tony Lippett, half of MSU's vaunted "no-fly zone" secondary and top-tier defensive coordinator Pat Narduzzi.
4. Baylor Bears
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Final 2014-15 AP ranking: 7th
Returning starters: 17
Baylor has ended the two best seasons in school history with disappointing bowl-game losses, the kind of results that can either sap a program's momentum or motivate those who return to strive for more. For the Bears that remain after squandering a 20-point fourth-quarter lead to Michigan State in the Cotton Bowl, it's certainly the latter.
"It sets a fire under us knowing we kind of beat ourselves," quarterback Seth Russell told John Werner of the Waco Tribune. "It definitely has a bitter taste. It’s something we can look back on and watch film and not let it happen again.'
Russell is the likely successor to Bryce Petty, who was stellar the past two seasons but isn't considered irreplaceable thanks to Baylor's proven offensive system. That unit brings back most everyone else of any significance, and the Bears also return a strong foundation on defense led by imposing end Shawn Oakman.
3. Alabama Crimson Tide
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Final 2014-15 AP ranking: 4th
Returning starters: 11
Alabama has begun the season ranked no worse than second every year since 2010, so a No. 3 projection would make it seem like the Crimson Tide are set for a down year. Quite the contrary.
There will be another new quarterback under center, and a record-setting wide receiver who went fourth overall in the NFL draft is no longer out there to catch passes from the new QB. But Alabama might have the best defense in the country this season, and there were plenty of questions about this team's offense last year, and coordinator Lane Kiffin ended up turning Blake Sims into a record-breaker.
Alabama's worst preseason ranking under coach Nick Saban (other than in his first season) was 24th, in 2008, and it ended sixth. Since then, the Tide have started out fifth or better and were 10th or better in every final poll.
2. TCU Horned Frogs
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Final 2014-15 AP ranking: 3rd
Returning starters: 14
Before the BCS was established in the late 1990s, we didn't always get the two highest-ranked teams meeting in a bowl game to determine the national champion. Even with the BCS, though, when the No. 1 team lost in January, it opened the door for the argument that the third-best team was actually better than the team rated second.
The college football playoff was supposed to eliminate any debate, allowing the top four schools to play it out for the championship. But that just shifted the "what if" scenario to the fifth-best team, which last year was TCU after the final playoff rankings were released. The Horned Frogs had to settle for a non-playoff matchup, which they dominated (beating Ole Miss, 42-3, in the Peach Bowl) and fueled their case that they deserved to be in the semifinals.
This prompted coach Gary Patterson to suggest an expanded playoff, with six teams, which would have allowed co-Big 12 champion TCU to get a shot at the title.
No such change has been made, though the Frogs should again be in position to contend for a playoff bid with the return of quarterback Trevone Boykin and plenty of other key starters. And unlike last year, when they didn't enter the AP poll until late September, they'll be high up in the rankings from the outset.
1. Ohio State Buckeyes
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Final 2014-15 AP ranking: 1st
Returning starters: 15
If there's any spot that will be correct when the official preseason AP poll comes out in August, it will be the one at the top. Defending national champions who return any semblance of the team that just claimed a title tend to be ranked first the following season, as was the case with 2013 champion Florida State in 2014 and 2012 winner Alabama in 2013.
It's hard to formulate a strong argument against Ohio State's not starting out 2015 at No. 1, not when the Buckeyes bring back an almost entirely intact starting lineup, including all of the stars. They return potential first-round draft picks at quarterback (Cardale Jones), running back (Ezekiel Elliott), defensive end (Joey Bosa) and elsewhere, not to mention plenty of talent at the rest of the positions.
"There's little doubt the Buckeyes deserve to be No. 1 heading into the 2015 season," ESPN's Mark Schlabach wrote.
There's more intrigue as to whether OSU will become the first team to get every first-place vote. Florida State was close last year, getting 57 of 60 votes, while Alabama had 58 of 60 in 2013.
Returning starter figures are courtesy of PhilSteele.com but have been updated to reflect recent injuries and transfers.
Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
