Envisioning Green Bay Packers' Starting Lineup for 2015 Season
The 2015 NFL draft and subsequent undrafted free agent signings are the last piece in the offseason puzzle in terms of personnel additions.
For a team like the Green Bay Packers, which does not participate heavily (or at all) in free agency, it's the most important piece.
Given that rookie minicamps are barely underway, this is an early prediction of the starting lineup. But given the holes that we know exist in Green Bay's roster, we're plugging them in as well as we can at this point in the offseason.
What follows is just that—a prediction of the starting lineup, meaning 11 players on offense, 11 players on defense and special teams. We'll release a complete, 53-man roster and depth chart prediction when training camp is underway.
Though we're only targeting starting players, I've also included an "in the hunt" section to applicable position groups, indicating which players could compete for and potentially win starting jobs in training camp.
These predictions are based on the Posse personnel grouping on offense (3 WR, 1 RB, 1 TE) and the 3-4 base defense (3 DL, 4 LB, 2 CB, 2 S). However, as the Packers play in defensive sub-packages a majority of the time, I've also indicated what the starting cornerback situation means for the nickel corner job.
Quarterback
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Starter: Aaron Rodgers
In the Hunt: No one
It's somewhat of a relief that Aaron Rodgers will have the experienced Scott Tolzien standing behind him this season, as well as rookie Brett Hundley, whose upside is clear.
However, even given his recent injuries in 2013 (shoulder) and 2014 (calf), if neither of those backups ever has to take the field Rodgers could have one of his best seasons yet.
In 2014, playing injured at the end of the season, Rodgers threw for the most yards (4,381) since his record-setting 2011 season. His five interceptions were a career low.
His completion percentage, however, fell to 65.6 percent, the lowest it's been since 2009, and injuries very well may have affected that.
This season Rodgers will also enjoy the stability of all five of his offensive linemen from last season returning, an explosive running game led by Eddie Lacy and a stacked lineup of pass-catching weapons. Everything is in place for him to take advantage of and continue re-writing the history books in 2015.
Running Back
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Starter: Eddie Lacy
In the Hunt: No one
Since he was drafted, Eddie Lacy has proved to be one of the greatest boons to Green Bay's offense in the Mike McCarthy era, helping the Packers convert third downs and giving Rodgers freedom from constant cover-2 looks.
McCarthy, for his part, understands that the best Lacy is a fresh, uninjured Lacy, and has been better about using him less per game—making him more effective overall.
Lacy's attempts per game decreased from 18.9 in 2013 to 15.4 in 2014, but his average yards per attempt jumped from 4.1 to 4.6.
Furthermore, his eight runs of 20-plus yards were five more than his three in 2013.
Grading out as Pro Football Focus' No. 4 running back in the league in 2014, Lacy averaged 2.8 yards after contact per attempt, demonstrating the bruising back's ability to eke out every last yard.
Wide Receiver
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Starters: Jordy Nelson (No. 1), Randall Cobb (No. 2), Davante Adams (No. 3)
In the Hunt: Jared Abbrederis/Jeff Janis/Ty Montgomery (No. 3)
Do the Packers have one of the league's deepest receiving corps? It sure looks like it.
Given all the talent that Ted Thompson has assembled at the position, it seems likely that the Packers will carry six receivers into the regular season. Though Davante Adams has an edge on locking down the No. 3 spot, 2014 rookies Jared Abbrederis and Jeff Janis and 2015 third-round pick Ty Montgomery can certainly push him for it in training camp.
Adams had 38 receptions, 446 yards, and three touchdowns in 2014.
Of course, Nelson and Cobb were the real stars of the group in 2014, and the most productive receiving duo in the league. They combined for 2,806 receiving yards and 25 touchdowns in the regular season.
The pair set a new franchise record for touchdowns in a season, breaking the record of 24 touchdowns previously set by Nelson and Greg Jennings in 2011.
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Tight End
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Starter: Richard Rodgers
In the Hunt: Andrew Quarless
In 2014, Andrew Quarless had 11 starts and 715 snaps, per Pro Football Focus, to then-rookie Richard Rodgers' five starts and 543 snaps.
However, given the rapid improvement in his play in the second half of the season and through the playoffs, Rodgers is in position to win the starting job in training camp.
In the first half of 2014, Rodgers started four games but had just seven catches for 111 yards and zero touchdowns. Per Pro Football Focus, he played 214 snaps during that time.
In the second half of the season, Rodgers played 277 snaps and totaled 114 yards over 13 receptions for two touchdowns.
He also had a huge touchdown catch for the team in the divisional round against the Dallas Cowboys.
Rodgers struggled in run blocking during his rookie year, but improved late in the season. That will be a determining factor in his ability to win the starting job.
Offensive Line
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Starters: David Bakhtiari (LT), Josh Sitton (LG), Corey Linsley (C), T.J. Lang (RG), Bryan Bulaga (RT)
In the Hunt: No one
When the Packers re-signed right tackle Bryan Bulaga during free agency, they ensured that the 2014 starting five will be together through 2017.
Then-rookie Corey Linsley was ranked as the fifth-best center in the league, per Pro Football Focus, demonstrating the ability to keep up with Green Bay's hurry-up offense and Aaron Rodgers' frequent audibles.
Josh Sitton and T.J. Lang finished among the top five guards in the league last season, per Pro Football Focus. They only allowed three sacks between them.
This offensive line helped Green Bay find success in both running and passing the football.
The Packers' offensive line was the eighth-best in the league in run blocking last season, according to Football Outsiders' Adjusted Line Yards formula.
Per Pro Football Focus' pass-blocking efficiency metric, the line was the second-best in the league in 2014 in pass protection, allowing just 112 total pressures and 18 sacks.
Defensive Line
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Starters: Datone Jones (LDE), B.J. Raji (NT), Mike Daniels (RDE)
In the Hunt: Josh Boyd (LDE), Letroy Guion (NT)
Though Letroy Guion played 633 snaps last season, per Pro Football Focus, as B.J. Raji sat out the season with a torn bicep, the prediction is that Raji wins the starting nose tackle job in camp. It's his second chance at a one-year, "prove-it" deal and he demonstrated his commitment to the team last season by attending practice and remaining in Green Bay even though he was on injured reserve.
Jones and Daniels should step back into their starting roles (in the base defense) from last season. Daniels is on his way to being one of the NFL's best defensive ends. He ranked No. 8 among 3-4 defensive ends in 2014, per Pro Football Focus, with six sacks, 11 hits and 24 hurries.
Jones played 323 snaps last season, compared to 263 in 2013. He also had three starts. However, he was still used primarily in pass-rushing situations, and will need to prove he can be a more versatile defensive end.
Josh Boyd is in the hunt for more snaps in 2015. He's more of a utility player than Jones and better against the run, but Jones is a better pass-rusher. Expect a fair amount of rotation on the defensive line.
Linebackers
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Starters: Clay Matthews (LOLB), Matthews/Jake Ryan (LILB), Sam Barrington (MLB), Julius Peppers (ROLB)
In the Hunt: Mike Neal (LOLB), Carl Bradford (LILB)
Green Bay's linebacker group is incredibly fluid heading into the season, and these projections reflect that.
For instance, Clay Matthews can't physically be a starter at both inside and outside linebacker, but expect him to spend a significant amount of snaps at both until another inside 'backer proves he's capable of holding down the middle next to Sam Barrington.
Could that player be fourth-rounder Jake Ryan? It's entirely possible. Though 2014 rookie and outside-linebacker convert Carl Bradford has more experience in Green Bay's system, Ryan is taller (6'2" and 240 pounds) and faster (4.65-second 40) than Bradford (6'1", 250 pounds, 4.76-second 40).
Ryan also played middle linebacker his senior year at Michigan, while Bradford played defensive end/outside linebacker at ASU.
When Matthews moves inside, expect Mike Neal and Nick Perry to continue to get meaningful snaps opposite Julius Peppers, especially as Perry is effectively now in a "prove-it" year after the Packers declined to pick up his fifth-year option.
Defensive coordinator Dom Capers ran the linebacker-heavy NASCAR package often last season to get the best pass-rushers on the field and, as this might be the last year Matthews, Peppers, Perry and Neal are all together, he'll take advantage of that.
Secondary
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Starters: Casey Hayward (LCB), Sam Shields (RCB), Morgan Burnett (SS), Ha Ha Clinton-Dix (FS)
In the Hunt: Quinten Rollins/Damarious Randall (LCB)
2015 rookies Quinten Rollins and Damarious Randall would have to develop awfully quickly to challenge Casey Hayward for the starting outside job next to Sam Shields. Thus, expect Hayward to win and Rollins and Randall to compete with Micah Hyde for nickel and dime coverage.
Hayward played 225 of his 470 possible snaps (or 48 percent) in the slot in 2014, per Pro Football Focus, but he had three interceptions. He's proven that he has the athleticism to cover on the outside despite his 5'11" height.
Shields allowed opposing receivers a catch rate of just 51.9 percent last season, one of the lowest in the league among all cornerbacks, per Pro Football Focus. But his passes defensed (nine) and interceptions (two) were down from 2014, giving him something to prove this season.
For the safeties, Morgan Burnett and Ha Ha Clinton-Dix each had one interception, while Hyde had two. Burnett's performance was trending up: he had 130 combined tackles, a career high, 1.5 sacks and four passes defended. Pro Football Focus graded him the No. 16 safety in the league.
Clinton-Dix had a very brief learning curve as a rookie, and by the playoffs he was in the zone. In the conference championship against the Seattle Seahawks, Clinton-Dix had two interceptions of Russell Wilson. He also had three passes defended in that game, half of his regular-season total.
Special Teams
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Starters: Mason Crosby (K), Tim Masthay (P), Brett Goode (LS), Micah Hyde (PR), Ty Montgomery (KR)
In the Hunt: Cody Mandell (P), Jared Abbrederis (PR)
Head coach Mike McCarthy has become fixated on improving Green Bay's special teams unit, which was ranked last in the league in The Dallas Morning News' special teams rankings.
McCarthy announced in a news conference he would give up play-calling for the offense—in part to work on fixing the special teams.
"I think we need to adjust our special teams philosophy," McCarthy said during the combine, via ESPN.com's Rob Demovsky. "We had starters play more on special teams [last] year than we had in the past, and that will continue to increase. Special teams needs to be an asset, not something that we use as a stepping stone offense or defense."
Fear not, however, for the Packers may not need to subject Randall Cobb to injury risk on kick returns in 2015, having drafted extraordinary return man Ty Montgomery of Stanford. Montgomery led the team in 2013 with 12 punt returns for 238 yards (averaging 19.8 yards per return) and two touchdowns. It was his first year returning punts. On kick returns, he had 17 for 429 yards, a 25.2 yards-per-return average.
Mason Crosby had one of his best seasons in recent years in 2014, making 81.8 percent of his field goals. That's lower than his 89.2 percentage in 2013, but it's his third-highest percentage in his eight-season career.
Tim Masthay had the worst season of his career in 2014. The Packers made it clear he'll have to earn his spot, having signed Cody Mandell, a former Alabama punter, in January to give him competition in camp.
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