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Unfortunately, the takeaways from the first month of the season are largely negative.
Unfortunately, the takeaways from the first month of the season are largely negative.Orlin Wagner/Associated Press

3 Biggest Takeaways from the 1st Month of the Chicago White Sox's Season

Matthew SmithMay 7, 2015

True, not every takeaway from the first month of the Chicago White Sox's season is negative.

After all, Jose Abreu hasn't succumbed to a sophomore slump, Melky Cabrera is picking it up a bit, Zach Duke and Dan Jennings have been quite good, and David Robertson is about as good as it gets.

Oh, they also scored four runs in the bottom of the eighth inning Wednesday night to take their second straight contest from the Detroit Tigers. They did it against Joba Chamberlain, of course, but hey, a comeback is a comeback, right?

The come-from-behind victory isn't enough to mask the larger issues, however. Those run much deeper.

Let's take a look at three things that stand out the most after one month of the season. This will not be a feel-good column.

To set the table a bit, we will not be looking at any one player's production. That would be too easy.

Rather, we will look at larger themes—things that are harder to overcome because they involve multiple players.

Finally, we are going to stay away from arguing that manager Robin Ventura needs to be fired. Not that removing him of his duties would be unwarranted given the White Sox's level of play since the end of 2012, but he does deserve at least a little more time to allow this particular roster to jell before making any final decisions.

Let's get going.

3. The Back of the Rotation Is a Mess

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Going into the season, many believed the White Sox had one of the better groups of pitchers at the top of the rotation.

Simply put, Chris Sale, Jose Quintana and Jeff Samardzija form a group of starters that is the envy of many teams across MLB. Their stuff is that good.

The three of them haven't put together back-to-back-to-back efforts worthy of the adulation, but it's the last two spots that are most worrisome.

Consider: John Danks entered the season with three straight campaigns where he finished with an ERA and a fielding independent pitching (FIP) over 4.70 and a strikeout-to-walk ratio (K/BB) below 3.50. And while Hector Noesi had a rather nice run at the end of last season and has incredible movement on his pitches, he was still an unproven commodity at the major league level.

Well, Danks' ERA and FIP have worsened to this point in the season, and Noesi has been a train wreck, posting a 6.75 ERA with a 6.93 FIP, 1.500 WHIP and an unacceptable 1.44 K/BB.

At some point, something has to change if the White Sox are going to make a run in the American League Central. Options include Erik Johnson, Scott Carroll and Carlos Rodon. Of the three, Johnson seems the likeliest candidate to permanently slide into the rotation first.

True, the White Sox announced via their Twitter feed that Rodon is starting on Saturday. As general manager Rick Hahn noted when Rodon was promoted, however, the club is "going to ease him into" his role, per the Chicago Sun-Times' Daryl Van Schouwen. That means he will likely not be called upon to start on a full-time basis until later in the season.

And Carroll has been fantastic out of the bullpen. His ability to pitch in long relief is too valuable at the moment given the uncertain results of the rotation.

Either way, the back of the rotation is a mess at the moment, only confirming the fears of many entering the season.

2. The White Sox Are a Liability in the Field

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Regardless of how you feel about advanced statistics on defense, the White Sox are a terrible fielding baseball team.

That may be an understatement actually.

Going into action on Wednesday, for example, Ventura's club had committed 20 errors, good for 12th in the American League. Worse yet, its .976 fielding percentage sat at 14th in the AL. Most of the errors are of the throwing variety.

Compounding the problem is a general lack of range.

Per FanGraphs, the White Sox had only made 63 OOZ (Out of Zone) plays all season, ranking ahead of only the Chicago Cubs and Cleveland Indians. What that indicates is that if the defensive alignment isn't on point, guys like Micah Johnson, Melky Cabrera and Avisail Garcia generally won't be able to make up enough ground to make the play.

Looking more broadly, Ultimate Zone Rating UZR measures four key variables—outfield arm runs (ARM), double-play runs (DPR), range runs (RngR) and error runs (ErrR)—to quantify general defensive effectiveness. Here, the White Sox are the fifth-worst club in MLB at minus-11.3, per FanGraphs.

Again, terrible is an understatement.

All told, this is an area where there isn't much room for improvement. Conor Gillaspie (three errors), Geovany Soto (three) and Alexei Ramirez (five) aren't going to magically improve. They are what they are. And when we combine the throwing miscues with a lack of range, it's a recipe for disaster.

The consequence for the Keystone Kop play is that the pitching staff needs to execute at a high level to keep the club in games. It also means that the moribund offense is playing from behind most nights.

And as we're witnessing, neither area is coming through.

1. Time Is Running Out—Already

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Yes, John Danks and Hector Noesi have been brutal. And yes, the defense is toward the bottom of MLB in various measurables.

The biggest takeaway from the first month of the season, however, is that if the 25-man roster does not pull it together quickly, all bets are off. From FanGraphs' Dave Cameron:

"

There was a scenario where things broke right and the White Sox became legitimate contenders — the Astros are currently in the midst of that scenario at the moment — but it was going to require the team's role players step up and fill some of the areas where the team was expected to get replacement level production.

That hasn't happened. ...

So they have roughly 80 games to get back in the race, and if Detroit and Kansas City play at even their modest projected rest-of-season winning percentages, the White Sox would have to play ~.650 baseball to overtake them by the end of July. 

"

As Cameron noted, the end of July is critical because that is when the MLB non-waiver trade deadline arrives. And with guys like Jeff Samardzija and Alexei Ramirez either entering free agency or having expensive options for 2016, there are men to be moved—if the White Sox don't turn it around.

Unfortunately, the first month of the season hasn't given anyone reason to believe this group of players under this manager are capable of going on an extended run.

That said, this White Sox fan is going to hold out hope that Conor Gillaspie's recent run is for real and that Chris Sale's struggles will disappear after he comes back from his looming suspension. Just keep clinging to the idea that Avisail Garcia is better than the projections and that Tyler Flowers will hit his weight.

And hey, this two-game winning streak is the start of something big. Right?

Unless otherwise noted, all traditional, team and advanced statistics are courtesy of FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference.com. Transaction, injury and game information are courtesy of MLB.com.

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