2015 Fantasy Football Outlook for Atlanta Falcons Stars
The offensive corps of Atlanta Falcons Stars survived the offseason upheaval. Now Roddy White, Matt Ryan and Julio Jones must get acquainted with new coaches, new teammates and a new playbook while maintaining their upper-echelon fantasy football status in 2015.
Atlanta’s defense devolved into one of the worst in the NFL, which is why the Falcons hired Seattle Seahawks defensive coordinator Dan Quinn to replace Mike Smith at head coach.
The offense continued to finish strong, ranking eighth in yards and 12th in points scored—finishing ninth in standard fantasy scoring. New offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan will attempt to balance Dirk Koetter's pass-heavy attack.
General manager Thomas Dimitroff survived the restructuring but not without some attrition. Owner Arthur Blank promoted Scott Pioli to assistant GM, while granting Quinn final control over the 53-man roster, according to Mike Florio and Mike Wilkening of Pro Football Talk.
D. Orlando Ledbetter reported Dimitroff isn’t concerned.
"It’s not about who has final 53 or who has authority over one thing or another. It’s about working together. It’s about nice equal footing and a partnership. Given the fact that this is Dan Quinn and he has all of his understanding of the defense and how he believes he wants to build a football team. I have no problem with how the set-up is. I encouraged it.
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If all the new leadership finds harmony, the Falcons offense is set to dominate in fantasy once again in 2015.
Players are shown in ascending order from least to most valuable from a fantasy perspective in 2015.
Honorable Mention
1 of 11
Levine Toilolo, TE
Toilolo graded dead last in receiving among tight ends in 2014, according to Pro Football Focus.
The 2013 fourth-rounder out of Stanford is better suited to block, which is what he will be doing in 2015.
Tony Moeaki, TE
Atlanta signed Moeaki in March, according to the Falcons’ official Twitter page:
"The Falcons have signed tight end Tony Moeaki. #RiseUp
— Atlanta Falcons (@AtlantaFalcons) March 19, 2015
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The injury-plagued free agent saw limited work with the Seahawks in 2014. Atlanta signed Jacob Tamme on the same day.
Moeaki will most likely finish behind Tamme in the tight end pecking order for 2015.
Leonard Hankerson, WR
The Washington Redskins allowed Hankerson to test free agency after missing most of 2014 recovering from torn knee ligaments. The 2011 third-rounder out of Miami played his first three years under Kyle Shanahan as his offensive coordinator.
Atlanta brought in the 6’2”, 211-pound perimeter threat to back up Roddy White and Julio Jones who have both struggled with nagging injuries over the past few seasons.
Hankerson must overcome his own injury troubles before garnering more significant fantasy attention, however.
Steven Jackson, RB
2 of 11
Atlanta released the soon-to-be 32-year-old in February. Jackson responded in a statement on his website, SJ39, “Make no mistake: I can still punish a defense. I still have a warrior's heart. There are 1,000-yard seasons left in these legs. I know what I am still capable of, and I have every intention of proving it.”
Jackson posted his two lowest yards-per-attempt averages in his two seasons with the Falcons—3.5 and 3.7 in 2013-14 respectively. But Atlanta’s offensive line fell far below standard in run-blocking during that stretch, according to Pro Football Focus.
Dan Quinn’s new regime isn’t as likely to bring back the 11-year veteran as the previous, but sometimes familiarity is the strongest piece of a resume. Jackson still rates as a solid reserve in fantasy circles, and he shouldn’t be looking for work come September.
Devin Hester, WR
3 of 11
Atlanta is loading up at wide receiver, which doesn’t bode well for Hester’s fantasy prospects at the position. The full-time return specialist nearly scored as many touchdowns on special teams (one) as he did on offense (two) in 2014.
The Pro Bowler’s place on the Falcons’ roster is safe as long as he is a threat to score from anywhere on the field. Hester’s greatest value from a fantasy perspective is to Atlanta’s team defense/special teams, especially in leagues that value return yards.
Hester ranks as a fantasy reserve at wide receiver in only the deepest leagues. Fourth-rounder Justin Hardy and free-agent signee Leonard Hankerson figure to eat into Hester’s already meager offensive production.
All-Too-Early 2015 Projection: 25 receptions for 325 yards and one touchdown.
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Jacob Tamme, TE
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Tamme is the favorite to win the starting tight end gig in Atlanta based on health and experience. Tony Moeaki can’t stay on the field, and Levine Toilolo’s track record indicates he’s more suited to blocking than receiving, despite his towering 6’8” frame.
Atlanta lured the seven-year veteran away from the Denver Broncos because he’d see more action atop the Falcons depth chart. ESPN.com’s Vaughn McClure speculated the Broncos had Tamme’s ear right up until he signed with the Falcons, according to his Twitter page.
"Hearing that TE Jacob Tamme apparently has agreed to contract with Falcons. I wouldn't rule out Broncos though until deal is announced.
— vaughn mcclure (@vxmcclure23) March 19, 2015
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Tamme figured to be buried behind Owen Daniels and Virgil Green in Denver.
Kyle Shanahan offenses utilize pass-catching tight ends traditionally, but that won’t elevate Tamme above anything but a deep sleeper for fantasy purposes in 2015.
All-Too-Early 2015 Projection: 35 receptions for 300 yards and two touchdowns.
Justin Hardy, WR
5 of 11
Atlanta selected Hardy out of East Carolina in the fourth round of the 2015 NFL draft. The 5’10”, 192-pounder is the favorite to replace Harry Douglas, who departed for the Tennessee Titans via free agency.
What Hardy lacks in size and speed he makes up for with heart, an underappreciated intangible that can translate to a prolonged NFL career. He won the 2014 Burlsworth trophy awarded to the most outstanding college player who began as a walk-on.
Hardy told D.J. Shockley of Atlanta Falcons.com that blocking is a central part of his repertoire because the Pirates coaching staff told him, “if you don’t block, you don’t play.”
A blocking wide receiver is extremely valuable in zone-scheme offenses like Kyle Shanahan’s. The rookie will thus be likely to see many more snaps and gobble up plenty of high-percentage passes without a significant pass-catcher at tight end.
Hardy is only worth a look in PPR leagues at this point—dynasty or otherwise. His part in Atlanta’s offense isn’t likely to change even if Julio Jones or Roddy White miss time with injuries.
All-Too-Early 2015 Projection: 50 receptions for 550 yards and two touchdowns.
Antone Smith, RB
6 of 11
Smith touched the ball only 36 times in 2014 but exploded for 366 combined yards and five touchdowns. Including his brief 2013 stat line, the 2009 undrafted free agent out of Florida State averaged 12.1 yards per touch in limited work.
His seven career touchdowns on 43 touches breaks down to a score nearly every sixth time the Falcons slipped him the rock.
Atlanta didn’t protect Smith from free agency but still re-signed him when no other team made a better offer, per ESPN.com’s Vaughn McClure on Twitter:
"Falcons announce they've agreed to terms with Antone Smith
— vaughn mcclure (@vxmcclure23) March 10, 2015
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The five-year veteran doesn’t appear to be a big part of Atlanta’s offensive plans at this point, but his nose for the goal line makes him an intriguing sleeper.
All-Too-Early 2015 Projection: 120 yards and two touchdowns rushing, plus 10 receptions for 120 yards and two touchdowns.
Devonta Freeman, RB
7 of 11
Freeman fell in line as the unquestionable starter heading into the draft after Steven Jackson’s release and Jacquizz Rodger’s departure to the Chicago Bears via free agency. Then Thomas Dimitroff drafted Tevin Coleman in the third round, casting a cloud over Atlanta’s backfield from a fantasy perspective.
Coleman’s already declared himself the starter, according to ESPN.com’s Vaughn McClure.
"I'm going to come in there and I'm going to get a starting spot. That's what I'm going to do. Whoever is the starting back, they don't have to work. I'm coming in and working right away."
McClure also reported Freeman’s tempered reaction.
"Hey, I've got that same mentality. If you're that type of competitive player, if you're that type of dog, you've got to come in and compete. You just have to be ready to compete and go all out all four quarters and every single practice every single day.
My mentality is, I love that dog mentality. You just have to go out there and show it. Time will tell.
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Atlanta’s 2014 fourth-rounder out of Florida State graded stronger in the passing game than as a rusher last season, per Pro Football Focus. As such the 5’8”, 206-pounder is more likely to see the field in passing or change-of-pace situations rather than all three downs.
Time will tell, as Freeman said, but draft him as your fourth or fifth running back—with PPR upside—unless he somehow separates himself from Coleman in training camp.
All-Too-Early 2015 Projection: 375 yards rushing and two touchdowns, plus 50 receptions for 375 yards receiving and two touchdowns.
Tevin Coleman, RB
8 of 11
If the Falcons were satisfied with their current backfield, they wouldn’t have spent a front-end third-round pick on a running back like Coleman. The Indiana product is confident in his claim to the starting duties in Atlanta’s potent offense, based on his interview with D.J. Shockley of Atlanta Falcons.com.
"I'm going to be the best rookie running back [from this class]. I'm coming out to be the starter, and I'm going to work like the starter. It’s going to be real fun to play with [Julio Jones, Matt Ryan and Roddy White]. It’s going to be special.
[Atlanta] felt like the right fit for me. I just thank God for putting me in that right position.
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NFL.com’s Lance Zierlein compared Coleman to Darren McFadden, while Bleacher Report’s Brent Sobleski sees him as the next Clinton Portis in Kyle Shanahan’s zone-running scheme. His size—5’11”, 206—and speed—4.35 to 4.4 40-yard dash, according to Aaron Wilson of the Baltimore Sun—typify an NFL workhorse.
Pass-blocking is another huge factor, which Coleman told Shockley was his best attribute besides speed.
But Coleman must learn patience and elusiveness to avoid the bust, according to Zierlein.
“Coleman broke a tackle or made someone miss on just 12.2 percent of his carries. Melvin Gordon, Jay Ajayi and Todd Gurley all finished at just over 21 percent, while Duke Johnson clocked in at 19 percent.”
Take the rookie as your third or fourth running back and the worst that can happen is he’ll max out as a flex. If Coleman settles comfortably into the Falcons offense the odds are his ceiling is far higher than anyone else on Atlanta’s roster.
All-Too-Early 2015 Projection: 825 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns, plus 25 receptions for 140 yards.
Roddy White, WR
9 of 11
White’s health is the largest concern heading into his 11th season. The All-Pro wide receiver hasn’t started 16 games since his last Pro Bowl season in 2011.
Still, the former fantasy stud feels he has two to three good seasons left, in an interview on 680 The Fan’s The Front Row (h/t Jay Adams of Atlanta Falcons.com).
"Actually, I feel pretty good. Throughout the end of the season, I felt like my legs were under me. I wish I hadn't missed two games. That was my goal this year, to get through the year completely healthy, but that didn't happen for me. I feel I could play two or three more years, if I could just stay healthy through the whole course of a season and not miss any games.
I feel like I'm playing at a really good level. Any time you can go out there and catch 80 passes in the NFL, you're doing pretty good.
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White’s final stat line—80 receptions for 921 yards and seven touchdowns—tied him with Sammy Watkins for 26th in fantasy scoring among wide receivers in 2014. It marked the seventh time White nabbed 80 catches or more in his career, and the sixth season with at least seven touchdowns.
White either tied or outscored Julio Jones in three of their four seasons together, although Jones’ 26 career touchdowns bests White’s 25 during that span.
The 33-year-old can be expected to repeat his 2014 performance as long as he stays healthy. He should be drafted in the sixth to eighth rounds as a solid flex option from week-to-week.
All-Too-Early 2015 Projection: 75 receptions for 900 yards and six touchdowns.
Matt Ryan, QB
10 of 11
If there are any doubts how Ryan will adjust to Kyle Shanahan’s style of offense, it isn’t coming from Shanahan, tweeted Jay Adams of Atlanta Falcons.com:
"Shanahan: “Matt Ryan fits into everyone’s offense.”
— Jay Adams (@FalconsJAdams) February 10, 2015
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Ryan mirrored the admiration as offseason workouts began in April, according to Reid Ferrin of Atlanta Falcons.com:
"First and foremost, he has a ton of experience. He’s a young guy, but he has a ton of experience. I’ve enjoyed working with Kyle so far and Matt LaFleur, our quarterbacks coach, as well. I think there’s been really good collaboration on the offensive side. We’ve got a lot of work to do, a lot of time and effort to put in. The first couple of days have been really, really good.
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Ryan is a far better talent at quarterback than the list of Shanahan’s previous signal callers: Matt Schaub (2008-09), Donovan McNabb (2010), Rex Grossman (2011), Robert Griffin III (2012-13) and Brian Hoyer (2014).
The Pro Bowler missed only two starts in seven seasons and finished eighth in fantasy scoring among quarterbacks in 2014. Ryan graded on the positive side of each ratings category for a fifth-place rank among quarterbacks, according to Pro Football Focus.
Ryan’s performance rates even more impressively given the awful state of the Falcons’ mediocre offensive line in 2014. One of Shanahan’s biggest tasks will be to improve the line’s weaknesses and keep defenses guessing with a stronger running game.
The learning curve will hold Ryan at the bottom half of the top 10. But he’s still a bona fide QB1 that will come with great value in the fifth or sixth round. He’ll be a stud in daily fantasy formats as well in 2015, depending on the matchup.
All-Too-Early 2015 Projection: 4,210 passing yards, 25 touchdowns and 12 interceptions.
Julio Jones, WR
11 of 11
Jones bounced back from a recurring foot injury in 2013 with an astonishing 2014 performance. Defenses couldn’t stop the top weapon in the Falcons arsenal despite so little around him—besides Roddy White—to draw their attention.
The Pro Bowler made his fourth season his best, finishing eighth in fantasy scoring among wide receivers. He ranked third in targets (163), receptions (104) and receiving yards (1,593), held back overall by just six touchdowns.
In fact, Jones disappeared in the red zone last season, finishing tied for 43rd in fantasy output (17) with Andre Roberts and Tavon Austin. A better running game and a realistic scoring threat at tight end should loosen defenses up on the perimeter so Jones gains better scoring position when Atlanta gets close.
The 2011 first-rounder out of Alabama is not expected to enter the 2015 regular season without a contract extension, based on what Thomas Dimitroff told ESPN.com’s Vaughn McClure.
"There is no question that our focus in the future will be on Julio Jones and where we are. I don't want to get into specifics about the timing of that, obviously. But now that the draft is over and we continue to build this football team, we understand that Julio is a very important part of our building and evolving as a championship-type team.
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Jones is a must-own wideout from a daily and season-long fantasy perspective. He missed only one game in 2014, and he scored no less than five points in any given week, according to ESPN.com.
He easily ranks among the top five wide receivers and should be off draft boards after the second round in 2015.
All-Too-Early 2015 Projection: 100 receptions for 1,500 yards and 10 touchdowns.
NFL statistics courtesy of Pro Football Reference , fantasy stats provided by CBS Sports.com, fantasy draft projections courtesy of Fantasy Pros, contract and salary cap information provided by Over the Cap and h/t to Rotoworld for tweets and quotes unless otherwise noted.
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