NBA Playoffs 2015: Updated Odds for Every Remaining Team to Win a Title
As the second round of the 2015 NBA postseason rolls on, a clearer picture of the true title contenders is beginning to emerge.
Or maybe that should be singular: title contender.
Based on the latest odds, the Golden State Warriors have distinguished themselves as a separate class of playoff threat. After a 4-0 first-round sweep, an easy Game 1 win over a Memphis Grizzlies squad missing its starting point guard and an MVP award ceremony for Stephen Curry, they're the unequivocal favorites.
It's good to be Golden State these days.
Meanwhile, the other seven conference semifinalists all seem to be facing some combination of fatigue, rust and injury. Strategic tweaks, conference difficulty and favorable matchups weigh heavily on the odds.
But if nothing else, the current state of the playoff slate proves that good fortune on the health front matters above all in a title chase.
Let's run down each team's chances to hoist the Larry O'Brien Trophy in June.
Memphis Grizzlies
1 of 8
Championship Odds: 40-1
The Memphis Grizzlies aren't the least title-worthy team remaining in the field, but they are the club whose playoff future looks bleakest.
That's because they're tangling with the Warriors, which are healthy, motivated and seemingly committed to proving historic regular-season dominance doesn't have to stop after 82 games.
Mike Conley's facial fracture was a devastating blow to a team that was already at a significant disadvantage, per Ethan Strauss of ESPN.com:
"This is a series between a flexible team and one that cannot shape itself to the situation. With Mike Conley injured, the Grizzlies are depleted at point guard, left without viable alternatives. Dave Joerger went without a true point guard lineup in spurts, but the measure seems like a Band-Aid on a gusher.
"
Conley's Game 1 absence meant the Grizzlies had no choice but to field lineups with clear deficiencies.
Play Nick Calathes, and the Warriors can ignore him on offense. Play Beno Udrih, and Golden State attacks him relentlessly on the other end. Play without a point guard, and Memphis has to lean entirely on Marc Gasol for playmaking duties.
With Conley in the lineup, the Grizzlies still lack the depth and three-point shooting to keep pace with the juggernaut Dubs. Without him, their title hopes are all but dead.
Washington Wizards
2 of 8
Championship Odds: 20-1
Despite a first-round sweep and a promising start against the top-seeded Atlanta Hawks, it's still difficult to find many bettors willing to back the Washington Wizards.
A complete offensive collapse at the end of the regular season probably has plenty to do with that, but anyone who's watched the Wiz during the playoffs knows that this is now a completely different team. Just like they did at this time a year ago, the Wizards have located their extra gear.
Not only that, but a strategic shift toward smaller lineups with Paul Pierce at the power forward spot has also completely rejuvenated a stalled-out attack.
Now, John Wall has more room to operate, more space to penetrate and more shooters to find for open looks. It shouldn't have taken this long for the Wizards to give a point guard with an unparalleled combination of speed and vision the spread options necessary to maximize his value, but this is a "better late than never" situation for Washington.
Injuries are a concern here, as Wall bashed his non-shooting hand in a hard fall during Game 1, and Bradley Beal rolled his right ankle landing on Al Horford's foot.
"I'm all right," Wall told reporters, per Ohm Youngmisuk of ESPN.com. "My hand hurts. Swollen, but other than that, I am fine."
If he's anything other than fine, the Wizards are in trouble. And sure enough, minutes before the start of Game 2, Chris Miller of CSN Washington confirmed Wall was unable to go Tuesday night.
All that space and shooting is great, but it's hard to imagine Ramon Sessions exploiting it as effectively as Wall does.
Like Memphis, this is a team whose postseason survival depends on the health of its floor general.
Atlanta Hawks
3 of 8
Championship Odds: 18-1
The Hawks aren't exactly title-odds darlings, either, which has as much to do with the broad belief that the other series in the East features the conference's two best teams as it does with Atlanta's uninspiring six-game win over the underwhelming Brooklyn Nets.
Simply put, it's been a long time since the Hawks resembled the team that won 19 consecutive regular-season games. The worry is that the last 19 contests of their campaign, during which span they won just 10 times, is more indicative of their true talent than the winning streak that feels like ancient history.
The Hawks still move the ball better than anyone else in the East, and they'll be hard to guard as long as they feature so many threatening shooters from long range. But troublesome injuries to Al Horford (right hand) and Paul Millsap (right shoulder) have made the team far more predictable than it once was.
Despite those issues, ESPN's Amin Elhassan likes the Hawks to advance because, unlike the Wizards, we've got a full season of evidence pointing to offensive sustainability: "Atlanta has the decided edge in execution, and postseason success more often than not goes to the team who can play as mistake-free as possible."
Advancing past the second round and winning a title are two very different things, though. And as you can tell from the Hawks' odds, there's a consensus building that their 2014-15 run will stop far short of a championship.
Houston Rockets
4 of 8
Championship Odds: 16-1
I guess one way to keep things brief would be to substitute "See Game 1 against the Los Angeles Clippers" for any in-depth analysis that would have occupied this space.
Because while a 16-1 shot at a title feels a little long for a No. 2 seed in the West, all you have to do to understand why the Houston Rockets aren't serious contenders is watch the tape of their complete and utter roll-over against a Clips squad missing Chris Paul.
Turnovers, lazy transition defense and a total lack of urgency against Los Angeles cast new light on everything from the Rockets' glaring lack of leadership to their suddenly not-so-impressive first-round defeat of the Dallas Mavericks.
There were strategic failures that contributed to Houston's Game 1 loss against L.A., with an inability to find secondary options on snuffed-out pick-and-rolls standing out most starkly. But the main takeaway from the Rockets' second-round opener was that they lacked the killer instinct real championship threats need.
Jonathan Feigen of the Houston Chronicle explained the effect Game 1 had on Houston's outlook: "The Clippers put up 71 second-half points in a thorough beatdown that brought a hard dressing down from coach Kevin McHale as the Rockets went from an enormous opportunity in Game 1 to a rapid descent into a desperate situation."
Anytime the word "desperate" accurately defines a team in the second round, it's safe to assume you're not dealing with a legitimate championship contender.
The odds reflect that.
Los Angeles Clippers
5 of 8
Championship Odds: 6-1
If knocking off the defending champs in one of the hardest-fought first-round series in recent memory wasn't enough to validate the Clippers' contender credentials, stealing home-court advantage from the Rockets with Chris Paul on the sidelines sure was.
Blake Griffin had plenty to do with the win in Houston, and his second consecutive postseason triple-double made clear the fact that he's capable of being much more than a finisher.
"Blake was just sensational," Clippers head coach Doc Rivers told reporters after Griffin's 13 assists in Game 1. "We told all the guards, be aggressive scorers, let Blake be the facilitator...his vision is unbelievable."
Paul's recovery is still paramount to L.A.'s postseason, but it seems the Clippers may not have to rush their point guard back into action. Houston looks shaky, and Griffin's skills as a playmaker might be good enough to help the Clips steal another game before this series ends.
There's bound to be a counterpunch coming from the Rockets, but the initial blow struck by the Clippers in Game 1 could wind up determining the series. The Warriors will almost certainly be waiting in the next round, and we know the Clippers have no fear of their West Coast rivals.
You have to squint a little, but you can see championship possibilities in the Clippers' future.
Chicago Bulls
6 of 8
Championship Odds: 5-1
It turns out NBA title chances are a lot like real estate; location is key.
In this instance, the Chicago Bulls have better odds than any West team (other than the Warriors) because they're situated in the Eastern Conference, which means the path to the Finals is substantially less difficult to travel.
Despite needing six games to dispatch the Milwaukee Bucks, and despite nagging injuries that have sapped the effectiveness of Joakim Noah and Nikola Mirotic, the Bulls have a 5-1 shot right now.
Derrick Rose continues to show flashes of his former glory, albeit with a few too many ill-advised threes off the dribble. And Pau Gasol feasted on wide-open mid-range jumpers against a Cleveland Cavaliers defense that couldn't contain Rose's drives in Game 1.
There are real matchup advantages in this semifinal series for the Bulls, and despite the entire roster preaching ignorance, the urgency attached to head coach Tom Thibodeau's possible ouster may be motivating the team to capitalize on its chances in the short term.
The Bulls' current odds reflect a general lack of belief in both the Wizards and Hawks, and they also reflect the mounting doubts about the beleaguered Cavaliers' chances.
Speaking of which...
Cleveland Cavaliers
7 of 8
Championship Odds: 5-1
It says a lot about the faith in LeBron James and Kyrie Irving that oddsmakers have given them the same chance as the Bulls to win a ring.
After all, Kevin Love's shoulder injury will keep him out for the balance of the playoffs, and the Cavs are in an early hole against Chicago.
Even with Irving channeling his inner acrobat on the way to 30 impressive points and James putting up 19 points, 15 rebounds and nine assists, Cleveland fell short.
"I have to be better. I wasn't that good," James told ESPN.com's Brian Windhorst. "I have to be much better."
James is selling himself short; he was good in Game 1. But he'll have to be great (and so will Irving) to avoid a scary 0-2 deficit against the Bulls because all of the circumstances that led to the series-opening loss—Love's injury, J.R. Smith's suspension, a lack of depth and Chicago's relentless penetration—will remain exactly the same in Game 2.
The only significant change will be Smith's return, and it's difficult to paint his reinsertion into the lineup as a series-transforming event. This is Smith we're talking about, after all. He's as likely to shoot the Cavaliers out of a game as he is to catch fire.
Big picture: There are worse things than relying on James' greatness to preserve your title chances. The four-time MVP has carried clubs before, so it's not out of the question that he'll simply do it again.
Golden State Warriors
8 of 8
Championship Odds: 4-5
Appreciate what those odds mean for just a second.
There are still eight teams in the field, and we know injuries can crop up at any time. Yet if you want to lay some cash on the Dubs, you'll have to put down more than your expected return.
In other words, the Warriors are favored over the entire field.
That's incredible, but Golden State's special status here fits into the larger narrative of its season. All year long, the Warriors have stood head-and-shoulders above the competition. They won their games by an average of over 10 points per contest, per Basketball-Reference.com.
Nobody else won by more than 6.6 points per game.
Their defense ranked first in efficiency, while the offense checked in at No. 2, per NBA.com. They have the MVP, not to mention the runners-up for the Defensive Player of the Year and Coach of the Year awards. They shot the three more accurately than anyone else.
Take all those advantages, toss in nearly perfect health and you've got the makeup of a team that probably should be the prohibitive favorite.
Unless something dramatic happens, the Warriors will be exactly that.
Odds courtesy of Odds Shark.
Grant Hughes covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter @gt_hughes.
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