Best-Case Scenarios for the Most Needy NBA Teams of the 2015 Offseason
With the NBA Playoffs in full swing, it's easy to forget that most teams are already home—or golfing, or fishing, or some other cliche loser activity—pondering how to fix things for next season.
Some teams don't have very much to panic about. The Oklahoma City Thunder figure to have Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant healthy again next season, for example. The Indiana Pacers will return a healthy Paul George, a decent draft pick and a few offseason additions. Not all lottery-bound teams have reason to fret too much.
But a distinguished corner of the association—you know who's there—is already plotting out dream scenarios in hopes of exiting the league's cellar.
Phil Jackson, Mitch Kupchak: We're looking at you.
A handful of teams enter this summer with lots of work to do. For some, it could result in a playoff appearance this time next year. Others may take minor strides, while some may not improve at all.
But, before the offseason festivities officially begin, Plan A is usually a good place to start.
Philadelphia 76ers
1 of 7
Draft a point guard and make a run at Danny Green or Tobias Harris.
Constructing a best-case scenario for the Philadelphia 76ers still must be reasonable. Sam Hinkie likely won't make a run, nor would he have a chance, at grabbing a Jimmy Butler or Kawhi Leonard. But, slowly, the Sixers are on the right track, and this offseason could bring relatively big strides toward the future.
They figure to have two of the league's most promising big men starting for them next season in Nerlens Noel and Joel Embiid. A number of the minimal-salary players they've taken a chance on have actually panned out—Robert Covington, Isaiah Canaan, Tony Wroten to name a few—and they're yet again armed with multiple picks in this year's draft.
With the top two picks this June likely being big men, Hinkie should be eyeing a point guard in Emmanuel Mudiay or D'Angelo Russell. Even if Philly lands a top-two pick in the lottery, a trade back to the third or fourth slots could net even more picks in return.
With Mudiay or Russell on board, the 76ers would have a legitimate floor general and scoring threat at the 1, with Noel and Embiid at the bigger positions. This leaves the starting wing spots to be rounded out.
Robert Covington proved he can handle legitimate NBA minutes last season, averaging 13.5 points on 37.4 percent shooting from three-point range in 49 starts. He's a good building block, but if the Sixers are hopeful to get out of the East's cellar next season, it's time to make a run at a coveted NBA free agent.
Tobias Harris is hitting restricted free agency this summer, meaning the Orlando Magic would be able to match any offer a team makes. But when it comes to legitimate NBA personnel, Philadelphia will need to overpay anybody to join their predominantly losing situation.
Harris averaged 17.1 points and 6.3 boards with Orlando this season and shot a career-best 36.4 percent from three-point range. His athletic frame would fit in with the Sixers roster, and he'd bring scoring ability that doesn't exist outside of the paint for Philadelphia.
Danny Green, an unrestricted free agent from the San Antonio Spurs, is another option. It would be the ultimate leap of faith by Green, leaving the basketball heaven known as San Antonio and joining one of the league's most losing franchises over the last few years. Yet, Green is familiar with coach Brett Brown from their careers with the Spurs.
In addition to his shooting, Green, with his long frame, is able to contribute excellent defense at multiple positions. Basketball-Reference had his defensive box plus/minus at plus-2.8, which ranked fourth among Spurs rotation players. San Antonio had the second-best defense in the NBA this past year.
This offseason figures only to be another stepping stone toward a brighter future, but hope exists that 2015 should bring more tangible steps for Philly.
Minnesota Timberwolves
2 of 7
Find a trade partner for Nikola Pekovic and draft Karl-Anthony Towns first overall.
Flip Saunders is in charge of a unique rebuild in that there are several, high-salary pieces left over from the previous regime. There's plenty of young talent on board, but to get this process into full swing, the leftovers have to go.
Nikola Pekovic's contract calls for $35 million over the next three seasons according to Basketball Insiders, which simply isn't necessary, considering Gorgui Dieng's promising sophomore campaign and that Pekovic will be 30 in January. Moving the center shouldn't be overly difficult, as several teams could use some bulk in the paint, and he did post player efficiency ratings over 20 in each of the three seasons prior to this one.
In a best-case scenario, the Wolves are picking first overall in this year's draft. They have the best shot at doing so—a 25 percent chance—and inserting top prospect Karl-Anthony Towns would be a dream for Minnesota.
Lineups with Dieng, Towns and Andrew Wiggins in the frontcourt would be defensive nightmares for opposing teams and athletically amazing to watch. With Kevin Martin—should Saunders opt to keep him and his $7.1 million salary—there to stretch the floor, and Ricky Rubio paired with a new pick-and-roll partner in Towns, the Wolves would instantly become one of the most fun League Pass teams to keep an eye on.
Orlando Magic
3 of 7
Hire Tom Thibodeau as head coach and sign a few "glue guys."
As things stand now, just two NBA teams are searching for new head coaches for the 2015-16 NBA season. That could change after this postseason, with chronic rumblings that the Chicago Bulls and Tom Thibodeau are headed toward an inevitable breakup.
Bleacher Report's Ric Bucher cited league sources last month who said Thibodeau's camp has privately scoped potential new employers for next season, which include the Orlando Magic, currently with a vacant head coaching position.
The caveat is that Orlando just signed general manager Rob Hennigan to a four-year extension through the 2017-18 season, potentially as a sign to prospective coaches that personnel decisions will be left predominantly to the front office—and a coach won't have the final say.
This is of note after Thibodeau's rocky relationship with Chicago management, which would be the reason for his eventual exit. He's gone 255-139 in the regular season with the Bulls for a .647 winning percentage. A Chicago Tribune report form January noted that the coach's relationship with management was "beyond repair," and nothing could save his job for next season.
The Magic are a team searching for direction. With several talented players are different positions, former coach Jacque Vaughn was never able to direct all that talent into a consistent gameplan.
With Thibodeau, you know what kind of team you're getting: a hard-nosed, defensive-minded, grind-it-out squad. Orlando already has a backcourt fit to grow under Thibs with Elfrid Payton and Victor Oladipo. Nikola Vucevic is one of the most promising centers the league has, and 19.3 points and 10.9 rebounds this season.
Dewayne Dedmon emerged as a solid backup to Vucevic, and Evan Fournier is a solid offensive piece. Tobias Harris' free-agency situation is up in the air, but if a team swings in with a max or near-max offer, Hennigan may be inclined to pass.
In a dream land somewhere, Thibodeau is running the Magic with Kawhi Leonard as the face of the franchise. But Orlando isn't likely to grab a player of that caliber just yet.
A Danny Green would be a good start. As would a Khris Middleton or DeMarre Carroll. These are the types of names the Magic should focus on, while the team settles into a decided direction for the future.
Sacramento Kings
4 of 7
Select top-three in the lottery, then trade for Ty Lawson.
The Kings have their man in George Karl, who took over head coaching duties on Feb. 11. The team's next move could be to nab Karl's former top weapon, Ty Lawson, from the Denver Nuggets.
Karl has reportedly already begun to usurp some power from general manager Pete D'Alessandro. In February, Bleacher Report's Howard Beck reported that Karl was interested in making a move with the Denver Nuggets for Lawson, and that the entire roster was available:
"George Karl's first power move as Sacramento Kings coach was to trade for Andre Miller, a trusted old hand from his Denver days. Expect more of the same this summer. Sources say Karl would love to acquire Ty Lawson—if the rebuilding Nuggets were to make him available—or any other members of his last Nuggets team, which won 57 games in 2012-13.
Karl wants players who move the ball and push the tempo, and that could mean wild upheaval on the Kings roster. Even DeMarcus Cousins, their franchise center, is not untouchable, according to a source with insight into Karl's thinking. "At the trade deadline, everyone was available," the person said. Including Cousins? "Every single person (on the Kings roster) was available." Although Karl does not hold a front office title, "he definitely has control" of future personnel decisions, the source said.
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The Kings went with Darren Collison at the point this past season until he suffered a season-ending injury on Feb. 5, and the 27-year-old averaged a career-high 16.1 points on 47.3 percent shooting. But Collison may simply be Karl's prime trading chip, rather than future starter.
The timing of Collison's injury meant he never logged a minute under Karl. Heading into the coach's first full season, the lack of familiarity with Collison, and the supreme familiarity with Lawson, could lead to a deal should Denver make the point guard a trade option.
Lawson spent the first four years of his career under Karl, and averaged 16.5 points and 6.7 assists on 47.3 shooting over his two as full-time starter: 2011-12 and 2012-13. This past season, he finished third in assists per game with a career-high 9.6, and the woeful Nuggets were 7.8 points better with him on the floor, according to Basketball-Reference.
Packaging Collison with Nik Stauskus and Ben McLemore would work financially in a deal for Lawson, and it's reasonable to suspect Karl would do whatever necessary to land his former point guard.
Additionally, Sacramento has a 21.5 percent of landing a top-three pick in this year's draft, as the sixth-worst team. Holding on to that pick after a Lawson deal, and coming away with a Karl-Anthony Towns or Justise Winslow to revamp the team's defense would be as good a scenario the Kings could ask for.
Detroit Pistons
5 of 7
Sign Draymond Green.
What Andre Drummond wants, Andre Drummond gets (in this best-case situation).
"Did Andre Drummond violate the NBA’s anti-tampering rules by tweeting to Draymond Green? http://t.co/8k7KSLDTPJ pic.twitter.com/MxvpMLSScR
— Angelo Mendoza (@iAMgoldenstate) April 20, 2015"
At just 21 and off back-to-back 13-and-13 seasons, the Detroit Pistons already have one of the league's most promising centers with Drummond.
Brandon Jennings improved in his time under Stan Van Gundy. Greg Monroe is no lock to return, entering unrestricted free agency this summer. Adding Draymond Green into the frontcourt to replace him could make the Pistons an instant playoff team in the Eastern Conference.
It's not particularly likely, but consider the Golden State Warriors' cap situation. Klay Thompson is under a maximum contract through 2019, and Stephen Curry will command a max deal as well in the summer of 2017. The Warriors will have the chance to match any offer for Green this offseason, matching a big-money deal could, at the very least, give the Lacob management pause.
In February, Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski reported that Green would have interest in joining Detroit next season. The 25-year-old is a Michigan State alum and a native of Saginaw, Mich.
"Green has loved playing with the Warriors and winning, and naturally Golden State is determined to find a way to retain him. Still, the Warriors' salary structure almost dictates that Green has to go onto the market and get an offer sheet for them to match in July.
If the offer is too rich to match, the chance for Green to return to his beloved home state – where he grew up in Saginaw and played at Michigan State in East Lansing – has long intrigued him, sources said. Green still spends most of his time away from the NBA in Michigan.
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Green averaged a career-best 11.7 points and 8.2 rebounds this year and was a candidate for Defensive Player of the Year. With Detroit, his biggest asset could be his shooting, which would provide spacing for an offense that desperately needs it—particularly if the team returns Reggie Jackson, an impending free agent who shot 29.9 percent from three this year as a guard. A 12-game slump to end the regular season dipped Green's 33 three-point clip to a pedestrian 33.7 percent, but he's nailing them at 40 percent in the playoffs.
It would take a lot for Golden State to let Green go in restricted free agency, but don't rule a Detroit homecoming out just yet.
New York Knicks
6 of 7
Draft Karl-Anthony Towns then sign Marc Gasol via free agency.
Phil Jackson's New York Knicks have a 38.7 percent chance of landing a top-two selection in this year's draft, which would assure them a shot at either Karl-Anthony Towns or Jahlil Okafor. Either would surely be welcomed onto a roster barren of any player taller than 6'8" (once free agency begins), but particularly for the Knicks, Towns should be first on the draft board.
According to ESPN.com, the front office sees it that way, too. Towns' defensive potential seems far greater than Okafor's, and while the Kentucky product isn't as polished in the post, his offensive game is more versatile.
Pairing Carmelo Anthony's elite scoring ability with Towns' all-around talent could be enough to give the Knicks the best starting lineups in the Atlantic division. But at that point, they'll still have roughly $25 million in cap room to play with this July, with eyes on the biggest fish in the market.
Considering the Memphis Grizzlies' success over the last few seasons, it's hard to imagine Marc Gasol jumping ship. But in New York's best-case scenario, the 7'1" center finds his way to Madison Square Garden.
With Carmelo Anthony generally being a minus on the defensive end, Jackson would be wise to pack as much defensive talent into the lineup as possible. In Gasol, not only would the team be acquiring a top-level rim protector, but one of the more versatile centers in the league.
Gasol's presence would enable Towns to begin his career playing mostly power forward, which would benefit him defensively. At Kentucky, in lineups with Willie Cauley-Stein, he was rarely the primary rim protector.
Sticking with Jose Calderon at the point would then be sufficient with three bona fide scorers in the frontcourt. There'd still be plenty of work to do in filling out the bench unit, but Langston Galloway and Tim Hardaway are decent pieces to begin with.
Los Angeles Lakers
7 of 7
Draft D'Angelo Russell or Emmanuel Mudiay then sign Kevin Love via free agency.
No, the Los Angeles Lakers' ideal offseason would not include signing Rajon Rondo. No matter how much it would disappoint Kobe Bryant.
With any luck, they'll have the opportunity to select their future franchise point guard in the draft. They have a 47.7 percent chance of selecting top-four, where Bleacher Report's Daniel O'Brien predicts the two best point guards in this draft will land.
Emmanuel Mudiay, a Texas-native out of the Chinese Basketball Association, and D'Angelo Russell may be the first two players picked after Karl-Anthony Towns and Jahlil Okafor. With similar skill sets and long wingspans, either would be a great addition to any lineup.
If both are on the board, Mudiay's size makes him a slightly more sound selection. But Russell's expansive highlight reel would certainly be well-received in Los Angeles as well.
Similar to the Knicks, once LA fills one of its roster holes through the draft, it will have the chance to land a top free agent—or, in other words, finally a chance to bring Kevin Love to Los Angeles.
If Love opts out of his deal with the Cleveland Cavaliers, the Lakers would be able to add an offensive focal point to their lineup over the prime of his career. Turning 27 in September, Love has played under 15,000 minutes in his career, and is likely just entering his most productive seasons.
The Lakers are reportedly inclined to pick up Jordan Hill's team option, according to the Sporting News' Sean Deveney, which would give the team an in-house defensive body in the frontcourt. There should still be cap space left after the Love signing to round out other positions, while Jordan Clarkson and Julius Randle can contribute on minimal salaries.
And once Kobe Bryant's $25 million salary comes off the books after 2015-16, it'll open up even more room for Mitch Kupchak to spend, if Bryant retires or returns on a modest salary.
The team has plenty of holes entering this offseason, but a lineup consisting of Bryant, Russell or Mudiay, and Love alone is a vast improvement over the last two Lakers seasons.
