LaMarcus Aldridge or Marc Gasol: Which Star Should NY Knicks Covet More?
Congratulations, LaMarcus Aldridge and Marc Gasol. You're the next contestants on "Which Superstar Free Agent Is Worthy of Saving the New York Knicks?"
As the NBA playoffs wage on, the lottery-bound Knicks are looking ahead to their actual postseason. It begins with the draft and stretches through free agency, where their immediate future will ultimately unfold.
Entering the summer with the guarantee of a top-five pick is great and gives the Knicks an opportunity to add a legitimate building block at minimal cost. But with a soon-to-be 31-year-old Carmelo Anthony in tow, the Knicks aren't in the business of waiting. They need to strike now.
Luckily for them, they have $25-plus million with which to strike, per Basketball Insiders. That's enough scratch to get them in the room with a laundry list of star free agents, including the summer's biggest potential prizes: Aldridge and Gasol.
We know the Knicks will be interested in both because, well, they need competent players. Beyond that, team president Phil Jackson has emphasized the importance of acquiring big men.
Poaching one of Aldridge or Gasol from their respective franchises remains a long shot. Accept that, because it's a fact.
But in the event fantasy becomes reality and the Knicks have a chance at both, they need to sign the right one—the player who best complements Anthony and is most capable of sprucing up whatever product they inevitably roll out.
The Case for Marc Gasol
Mentioning Gasol in the same breath as New York is not a new exercise. The Knicks have been linked to him since before their season even started, and it's no secret as to why.
Jackson remains determined to implement the triangle, a reactive offensive system predicated on reading defenses, ball movement and, most importantly, interior versatility.
Most of the Knicks' offensive sets will begin around the elbow, an area with which Anthony is familiar. But they need more than him, as part of his job—whether he plays small forward or power forward—entails circling the outside. And if you're going to demand Anthony operate off the ball, you better have players in place willing to feed him spot-up looks.
Gasol will not become that guy.
He is already that guy.
DeMarcus Cousins (20.4) and Joakim Noah (23.0) were the only centers with higher assist percentages than Gasol during the regular season (19.7). Since 2011-12, among players with at least 50 total appearances, only Noah's assist rate (20.5) exceeds that of Gasol (17.8).
Aided in large part by shot selection, Gasol's court vision is forever. More than 25 percent of his attempts come outside 16 feet, which stretches defenses to the point of vulnerability.
Fellow bigs aren't always used to stepping outside of the paint, and the spacing in general creates ample room for his running mates to slip through off-ball screens and make aggressive cuts to the basket:
That he excels with his back to the hoop only makes him more dangerous.
Roughly 37 percent of his offensive touches came in the form of post-ups during the regular season. He averaged 0.95 points per possession in such situations, putting him in the 81st percentile of low-post efficiency.
Defenses have no choice but to send help or collapse entirely when Gasol works down low. And because he keeps his head up, he's able to exploit help by finding unattended shooters:
The Memphis Grizzlies marginalize that part of his game to a certain extent. They don't employ enough marksmen or shoot enough three-pointers, so they're more dependent on Gasol's elbow-extended bullets.
Although the triangle doesn't necessarily call for three-point shooting, there's room for it, largely because those looks are the natural offshoot of pounding it into the post. And, as luck would have it, the last time Anthony was healthy (2013-14), he drilled 43.2 percent of his spot-up bombs, making him a perfect complement to Gasol's offensive game.
Valuable still, the Knicks would be getting the best version of their investment. At 30, Gasol is finishing up a career season that saw him pay attention to every detail, however minor, even off of the court. As Michael Cohen wrote for The New York Times:
"What Gasol has added this year stems from a rigorous off-season regimen in which he overhauled his diet and reshaped his body after sustaining a knee injury that cost him more than 20 games last season. Slimmer, more agile and more aggressive on offense, Gasol is in the midst of perhaps the best stretch of his career on a Grizzlies team many consider a legitimate contender in the Western Conference.
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Gasol isn't just an offensive boon, either. He's a former Defensive Player of the Year who, while not a volume shot-blocker, provides solid rim protection. Opponents shot five percentage points below average when being guarded by him within 10 feet of the basket, and he's quick enough to offer help off of blown dribble-penetration coverage.
Everything about him makes sense for the Knicks. From his play style, to his stat lines, to his rigorous off-court regimen, Gasol is a transcendent talent who can vault them back into the playoff conversation immediately.
The Case for LaMarcus Aldridge
In today's pace-and-space NBA, Aldridge is the perfect bridge between the offense New York wishes to install and contemporary small-ball models that are growing in popularity and potency.
First, there's the triangle itself. The off-ball action and reflexive nature of most movements makes it a difficult system to understand, but Aldridge fits every bill imaginable, as Ian Begley previously detailed for ESPN New York:
"He’s widely seen as a player who can thrive in the triangle offense. The 29-year-old is effective in the post and can knock down a perimeter shot. Those skills, of course, are valuable in any offense. But they have significant value in the triangle, which can produce plenty of post touches and midrange shots.
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No player averaged more mid-range attempts than Aldridge this past season (11.1). And while those looks aren't encouraged by many top offenses these days, they're a prevailing element of the triangle, so the Knicks need bigs who can shoot them.
But Aldridge has also developed into a truer stretch forward. He hit more three-pointers in 2014-15 than he did through his first eight seasons combined, and he did so at an efficient clip (35.2 percent).
Having that type of versatility is huge, even if the Knicks don't plan on utilizing smaller lineups exclusively. Stepping beyond the arc means Aldridge won't be battling for position with Anthony on the block if both are joined by a post-oriented center.
And, to that end, Aldridge can play center. He's not much of a bruiser, but he is 6'11", ranked higher than Gasol on the post-up scale and recorded a player efficiency rating of 28.3 at the 5 slot, according to 82games.com.
Aldridge is actually more of a chameleon than Gasol in many ways. His assist totals are lower, but they're high enough and will only climb if he's passing by design. He also assisted on at least 10 percent of the Portland Trail Blazers' made baskets when on the floor in each of his four previous seasons.
Combine that with his more extensive offensive range and flashier rebounding totals, and Aldridge promises to yield just as much value.
Defense is the only area in which he falls short. Still, despite being a defensive minus for 2014-15, he's serviceable as paint-policer. He'll block the occasional shot and knows how to rotate between multiple players on the same possession:
Constantly shimmying between interior and perimeter presences does curb his block totals, and he's more susceptible to getting picked off when backpedaling against smaller ball-handlers. But this perpetual shifting doesn't make him a glaring liability.
Opponents shot 5.6 percentage points below average when going up against him inside 10 feet of the basket during the regular season. More impressively, he helped make Portland's defense flawless early on by serving as Damian Lillard's interior safety net, making it so Nicolas Batum and Wesley Matthews weren't forced to switch off of their assignments.
Besides, the Knicks cannot be choosy.
They ranked 29th in defensive efficiency and are in no position to nitpick over someone who can exist alongside Anthony while elevating the their defensive ceiling ever so slightly.
Final Tally
And the winner is...Aldridge.
After pretty much guaranteeing he would stay put nearly one year ago, Aldridge appears to be more obtainable following the Blazers' latest first-round loss to Gasol's Grizzlies.
Some teammates are already worried he'll leave in free agency, according to The Oregonian's Jason Quick. One player even went as far as declaring Aldridge's departure a "50-50" possibility.
Prior to Game 3 against Memphis, ESPN.com's Chris Broussard (h/t CBS Sports) asked Aldridge if Portland would be his first choice in free agency, to which he responded: "We'll see."
As far assurances go, that simply isn't one.
To be fair, Aldridge continues to shower his incumbent organization with praise, per Quick:
With the window of opportunity at least partially open, the Knicks would do well to pounce. Both Gasol and Aldridge are beyond ideal fits, yet it's Aldridge who's slightly younger. It's Aldridge who figures to age better, if only because he doesn't play center full-time.
It's Aldridge who, unlike Gasol, can coexist with either Karl-Anthony Towns or Jahlil Okafor—two big men who figure to go first and second overall in the draft—because of his ability to play power forward and center.
It's Aldridge who has appeared in just one second-round playoff series his entire career and, by extension, may have more reasons to leave his current digs.
And so, with the Knicks in the market for another fortunes-turner, it's Aldridge who they should prioritize first and foremost, ahead of everyone else, even if it comes at the expense of chasing Gasol.
Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com unless otherwise cited.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @danfavale.
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