Predicting the Next Wave of NBA MVP Candidates
Even for the very best players in the league, the circle of NBA life is brutally predictable. Every MVP, no matter how seemingly invincible, eventually cedes his spot to the next star in line.
Sometimes, it's injuries that prompt the torch-passing.
Others, it's age.
And we need look no further than this year's crop of MVP hopefuls for proof.
Stephen Curry took home this season's honor, as first reported by Monte Poole of CSNBayArea.com, beating out James Harden to win the two-man tussle that had been dominated by Kevin Durant and LeBron James in recent years.
Durant lost a season to a foot injury, and James put up his worst statistical year since his second season in the league (of course, it says something about LBJ that was still in the conversation).
So, knowing that life as an MVP candidate is fleeting, we look ahead to the next onrush of young talent hoping to populate the award ballot for the league's highest individual honor.
They're all young, they're all hungry, and they're all going to get MVP consideration sooner than later.
The Unfortunately Excluded
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Already There
As you might have guessed, guys like Curry, Harden, James and even Chris Paul aren't fit for inclusion here. Not because they aren't going to be in the running for future MVP awards (clearly, they will), but because they proved they're already prime options.
This is about the next wave, and these guys are at the crest of the current one.
Thwarted by Teammates
Another quick aside: The presence of those players also decreases the odds for their teammates to pursue MVP awards for the foreseeable future.
As long as James is the top dog in Cleveland, it's pretty much impossible for Kyrie Irving to win an MVP. The same goes for the likes of Klay Thompson, Dwight Howard and Blake Griffin.
Those guys are all very good players—and in the cases of Irving and Griffin, great—but if you're not the most valuable player on your own team, no voter is going to deem you the most valuable in the league.
Sorry, fellas; it's not your fault you've got such great teammates.
Anthony Davis, PF, New Orleans Pelicans
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Age: 22
2014-15 Statistics: 24.4 points, 10.2 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 1.5 steals, 2.9 blocks, 30.8 PER
Including Anthony Davis, who very easily could have won his first MVP award this season, feels like cheating.
I guess that's mainly because his league-leading player efficiency rating and positioning on this season's ballot indicates he's very much a part of the NBA's current power structure.
At the same time, there's no reasonable way to talk about the league's future without mentioning the guy who's going to own it.
Davis is just 22, younger than the rest of this year's MVP short list, and his potential for growth on both ends of the floor is mind-boggling.
What happens when he marries his otherworldly quickness and length to the improved timing brought on by experience?
What happens when he gets stronger?
What happens when he starts shooting threes (which, inevitably, he will)?
I'll tell you what happens: We pencil him in for three or four MVP awards and a half-dozen top-three finishes. That's what.
Pick nits if you want; there's just no sense in leaving Davis out of this conversation.
Kawhi Leonard, SF, San Antonio Spurs
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Age: 23
2014-15 Statistics: 16.5 points, 7.2 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 2.3 steals, 0.8 blocks, 22.0 PER
Predicting Kawhi Leonard will be among the next batch of MVP candidates is really a bet that our collective understanding of what matters on a basketball court will continue to mature.
Because when you look at Leonard's averages with an eye that values points, rebounds and assists per game above subtler indicators of greatness, the San Antonio Spurs forward lacks an MVP profile.
But when you view Leonard in a way that accounts for all of his contributions (on both ends), it's clear he's on the fast track to being one of the NBA's very best players. In fact, there's a good argument that he's already there.
"Imagine if the NBA's best offensive player were also an elite defender? He's the MVP, right? Seems like a reasonable conclusion. Now let's flip it around. If the NBA's best defensive player is also an elite offensive player, what then? MVP, right?
This is where we're at with Kawhi Leonard.
"
Leonard is a brilliant defensive player whose offensive game has rapidly risen to nearly that same level. And everybody in a position to know—from Gregg Popovich to Tim Duncan to Tony Parker—has all the faith in the world that Leonard is a transcendent, team-leading talent.
It's not Leonard's game that has to change in order for him to be an MVP candidate.
It's our ability to expand our view of basketball value.
Jimmy Butler, SG, Chicago Bulls
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Age: 25
2014-15 Statistics: 20.0 points, 5.8 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 1.8 steals, 0.6 blocks, 21.3 PER
Jimmy Butler will be 26 when the 2015-16 campaign begins, which, under normal circumstances would indicate there's little room for improvement in his game. And if Butler's progress were to plateau, he wouldn't rightly belong on the list of the next wave of MVP candidates.
But Butler's career trajectory is somewhat atypical in that it hasn't been marked by steady progress so much as minor setbacks and massive leaps forward.
A quick refresher: Butler was a nonfactor as a rookie, but he flashed major potential (and a 38.1 percent stroke from deep) as a sophomore. Tasked with a dramatically expanded role in his third year, Butler saw his efficiency dip. Then, in his fourth campaign, Butler added an off-the dribble game, found his perimeter stroke and made the All-Star team.
If we assume the setbacks are over, and can bank on just one more big jump from the Chicago Bulls two-way dynamo, we'll see Butler ascend into the league's true elite.
He's close now—a more offensively diverse version of Leonard who sometimes comes close to matching his terrifying defensive game.
And when he doesn't, he's his own toughest critic, per his comments to Vincent Goodwill of CSN Chicago after a disappointing first-round loss to the Milwaukee Bucks: "I’m supposed to be the primetime defensive guy and I haven’t guarded a soul," Butler said. "I’m worried about offense too much."
Nothing's certain, but with loads of skill and obvious internal drive, Butler is a good bet to make that final push to the next level.
John Wall, PG, Washington Wizards
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Age: 24
2014-15 Statistics: 17.6 points, 4.6 rebounds, 10.0 assists, 1.7 steals, 0.6 blocks, 19.9 PER
Know what takes John Wall from good to great?
Space.
Know what the Washington Wizards have suddenly figured out how to create this postseason?
Yep, you guessed it: space.
It's hard to know why it took so long, but the Wiz have gone small, slotting Paul Pierce at power forward for significant stretches. The result has been a stretched-out defense that Wall has absolutely destroyed with his unparalleled speed.
And once Wall has darted into the lane—sometimes around a screen up top and sometimes without any assistance at all—he's utilized his vision to find open shooters while the defense scrambles to recover. He averaged 12.5 assists per game in Washington's four-game first-round sweep of the Toronto Raptors.
A number like that over the balance of an entire regular season would be sure to get some MVP buzz going. Even if Wall's assist rate dips from its wild high right now, we should assume Washington will maintain it's emphasis on giving its point guard as much room to operate as possible.
That could lead to more perimeter accuracy from Wall, more lanes to the bucket and more shooting fouls drawn.
The Wizards have found something by spacing out, and Wall is going to be the biggest beneficiary going forward.
DeMarcus Cousins, C, Sacramento Kings
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Age: 24
2014-15 Statistics: 24.1 points, 12.7 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 1.5 steals, 1.7 blocks, 25.2 PER
How's your disbelief doing right now? Is it suspended?
Great, we can proceed.
Imagine for a second that DeMarcus Cousins, who put up some silly stats this year, finds his happy place.
If you can convince yourself it's possible for the Sacramento Kings to give him a stable environment, and that Cousins, himself, is capable of casting aside his own emotional volatility, there's a hypothetical scenario in which the big man holds everything together for a full year.
On the surface, it appears Cousins came close in 2014-15. But outside of the brief period when Mike Malone was coaching and the Kings were playing competitive basketball, Cousins' bad body language and insufferable sulking marred his season once again.
Thanks to a coaching carousel, an unfortunate illness and an unpredictable front office, Cousins had reason to be upset.
"It’s been a circus, man," Cousins told Michael Lee of the Washington Post in March when asked to describe his year with the Kings. "It’s been a complete circus. We got off to a hot start. Unfortunately, I got sick, so it ruined the look of the team. I take some blame for that. I know for a fact, if I wouldn’t have gotten sick, things wouldn’t have happened the way it happened. It was no way it could. At the same time, a lot of it is not my fault and we all know why. But this has been a disappointing year.”
It's hard to make the case that everything preventing Cousins from posting an MVP season is external, though. He bears a measure of responsibility for how his career has played out.
But in that perfect world where the Kings somehow become a functional, focused, professional organization and Cousins' maturity improves along with it, it's not really that hard to envision him being a part of MVP conversations.
He's already made an All-Star team, and he behaved well enough to be included on Team USA's 2014 FIBA Basketball World Cup squad.
So we've seen some progress.
Maybe it's overly optimistic to believe Cousins and the Kings will change enough to take that next step toward MVP candidacy. But it's not impossible, right?
Right?
Andrew Wiggins, SF, Minnesota Timberwolves
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Age: 20
2014-15 Statistics: 16.9 points, 4.6 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.6 blocks, 13.9 PER
Rookie of the Year Andrew Wiggins didn't have an objectively great season.
He had a great season relatively speaking.
The relevant qualifier is youth, and in a roundabout way, that's the real reason Wiggins belongs on this list.
He topped 1,200 points, 350 rebounds, 75 steals and 50 blocks in 2014-15. If you'll excuse some statistical cherry-picking and look past the fact that those are the kinds of volume numbers that sometimes obscure more truth than they reveal, consider this: LeBron James is the only other teenager to amass them in a single season, per Basketball-Reference.com, via B/R's Dan Favale.
A little context goes a long way here.
Wiggins has plenty to learn. But he's already a capable defender who can create his own shot, and his rangy 6'8" frame certainly isn't short on raw talent. With James as a starting-point peer, it's difficult to imagine a future in which Wiggins isn't a star.
It may take him longer to get there than the rest of the guys on this list, but rest assured that Wiggins is on the right track.
"I think he’s a fantastic young player and he has an incredible future in front of him," Portland Trail Blazers head coach Terry Stotts told reporters. "But it’s in front of him. He’s not there yet."
He'll get there, though, and that's exactly why Wiggins is on our list.
All stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com, unless otherwise indicated.
