Marc Gasol, Zach Randolph Must Step Up to Avoid First-Round Playoff Meltdown

The Memphis Grizzlies have history and basic math on their side, and yet the possibility of a playoff meltdown has crept into frame after they were unable to slam the door shut and sweep the Portland Trail Blazers on Monday night.

A seven-point cushion through three quarters figured to be enough breathing room for the short-handed Grizzlies to keep the reeling Blazers at bay. But over the game's final 12 minutes, Portland outscored Memphis, 31-17, to prevail, 99-92, and shift the series back to Tennessee for Game 5 on Wednesday.

If it weren't for the continual struggles of Memphis' big men, the Grizzlies might have been able to avoid a late-game collapse and enjoy some extra rest before a second-round tilt with the Golden State Warriors.

Zach Randolph finished with 12 points on 6-of-20 shooting, marking the third time in four games that he's tallied more shots than points. Marc Gasol admittedly looked sharper, totaling 21 points, seven rebounds and six assists while shooting 7-of-16, but he's generally been more miss than hit throughout the postseason's opening round.

"When you're up 10 points with six minutes in the game in this league, you got to finish," Randolph said following the loss, according to the Associated Press (via ESPN.com). "Especially in these circumstances and what we're playing for. So it's frustrating."

	Date/Time	Result	Series
Game 1	April 19	100-86 MEM	MEM 1-0
Game 2	April 22	97-82 MEM	MEM 2-0
Game 3	April 25	115-109 MEM	MEM 3-0
Game 4	April 27	99-92 POR	MEM 3-1
Game 5	April 29, 9:30 p.m. ET	TBD	TBD
Game 6*	May 1, TBD	TBD	TBD
Game 7*	May 3, TBD	TBD	TBD

Now, Memphis shouldn't be sounding alarms and mashing panic buttons just yet. According to the fine folks at WhoWins.com, no team in league history has ever coughed up a 3-0 series lead and lost in the best-of-seven format.

However, the untimely nature of Mike Conley's facial surgery—which has left him without a concrete timetable for return, according to Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski—has shifted the spotlight to Memphis' two Bash Brothers.

And while Grizzlies guards like Courtney Lee, Beno Udrih, Nick Calathes and Tony Allen have stepped up all series long, Randolph and Gasol have left plenty to be desired.

Kevin Lipe of the Memphis Flyer explains: 

"

Neither Randolph nor Gasol has had a particularly stellar series so far (though Gasol's Game 4 was his best of the series so far, especially on the defensive end, and shows that he's on the right track). That hasn't been a problem yet because the Griz have been able to slice and dice Portland with guard play—Lee and Conley both having big nights, Beno's midrange outbursts in the first two games, et al—but without Conley, the spacing on offense is even worse than it usually is, the passing is all out of whack, and the bigs have even less room to work than normal. That's not good for a team that is now starving for offensive production after breaking triple digits more than once in the series. 

"

Four games in, Memphis' top three plus/minus ratings all belong to guards (Conley, Allen and Lee). Randolph (plus-19) and Gasol (plus-22) haven't been close to net negatives, to be sure, but their offensive contributions haven't resided in a realm of reliability.

Beyond Jeff Green—who's shooting a cringe-inducing 22.9 percent outside of the restricted area—Gasol and Randolph have recorded the lowest field-goal percentages of any Memphis player receiving steady first-round minutes.

Player	MPG	PPG	RPG	FG%	PER
Marc Gasol	38.5	19.0	8.0	37.5%	21.5
Zach Randolph	34.3	13.5	8.5	34.3%	8.4

The key, though, is Randolph. Without Conley, Memphis is down one dynamic scorer and left with few options capable of taking the rock in isolation and scoring repeatedly.

But Randolph can be that guy. In fact, he's been that guy for a long time. When he scored at least 20 points during the regular season, Memphis went 16-5. Last season, the Grizzlies went 25-9 when he topped 20.

That's not a coincidence.

Unfortunately, Conley's absence looms large. Without their fluid point man available to probe Portland's defense and clear out space in the pick-and-roll, the Grizzlies' once-optimal floor balance is in danger of getting overrun by instability.

As Lipe explained, Memphis' spacing has been compromised sans the ambidextrous floor general. To his point, 12 of Randolph's 20 shots in Game 4 were contested, and he converted just three of them.

A chunk of that inefficiency has to do with a rejiggered offense, but Randolph's also to blame here. 

In Game 4, Memphis cleared out the weak side for Randolph consistently to work one-on-one, but he couldn't solve LaMarcus Aldridge's tight defense. The room was there, and countermoves, up-and-unders, pivots and step-back jumpers were all attempted with regularity. But none landed frequently enough to cut Portland's postseason stay short.

Don Ryan/Associated Press

For Randolph and the Grizzlies, success will start with taking a more aggressive approach. Twice during this series—Games 2 and 4—Randolph has failed to attempt a free throw. For a team that's 18-5 when he makes at least five freebies, that's bad news. So if he can use brute strength to initiate contact and get Aldridge in early foul trouble, then the Grizzlies offense will be in business.

"If Randolph can have even a decent game, not necessarily a great one, the Grizzlies have a much better shot at Game 5 than they did at Game 4," Lipe wrote. "That production has to come from somewhere, and if Randolph can do better than 6-of-20, that would be a start."

The same holds true for Gasol.

Although the Spaniard has posted superior counting stats compared to his running buddy, the pressure's on to keep Aldridge in check as another closeout opportunity presents itself.

"He's shooting 34 percent for the series (32-of-94) and is overdue for a breakout performance," Bleacher Report's Dan Favale wrote. "And if that performance comes in Game 5, the Blazers, who had the Western Conference's third-best home record for the regular season, could head back to Moda Center with an opportunity for a Game 7."

Focus has never been an issue for Gasol, nor should it be in Game 5. That said, Aldridge is always a candidate for an improbable scoring outburst, even if it comes against one of the league's most disciplined defenders.

Do the Grizzlies have breathing room? Yes. Does precedent suggest they'll skirt past the Blazers? It sure does. But that doesn't mean Portland is going to fold after a rousing flourish kept its playoff dreams alive Monday.

As the Blazers' confidence builds, it's all on Randolph and Gasol to stomp out their opponents' hopes once and for all.

Otherwise, they risk winding up on the wrong side of history.

All statistics are current as of April 28 and courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com unless noted otherwise.