Can Dallas Mavericks Sustain a Comeback in 1st Round of 2015 NBA Playoffs?
The Dallas Mavericks looked done after Game 3 of their first-round series against the Houston Rockets. Despite a 3-0 deficit and having two starters sidelined, the Mavs showed heart by extending their postseason lives with a 121-109 Game 4 victory on Sunday. But a comeback still appears a far-fetched dream.
The Mavericks scrambled in Game 4. They dived for loose balls, sprinted on every opportunity in transition and occasionally played some disruptive defense.
J.J. Barea and Al-Farouq Aminu, inserted into the starting lineup as a last-ditch effort by head coach Rick Carlisle to salvage the season, stepped up big time. Barea ran the show all evening long, ending the night with 17 points and 13 assists in 36 minutes of play. In his 38 minutes, Aminu added a double-double of his own with 16 points and 12 rebounds.
It was a terrific adjustment by Carlisle. Raymond Felton and Richard Jefferson, who both received starting nods in Game 3, simply didn't bring much to the table. They might be savvy veterans, but they're simply not major difference-makers at this stage of their careers. They combined for three points on 1-of-7 shooting from the field in that game (both also picked up minor injuries, partially forcing Carlisle's hand in Game 4).
While the adjustment was great, it feels like it unfortunately came a game too late.
Jefferson has been the Mavs' best spot-up shooter, but Aminu has made a significantly bigger impact on the floor since cracking the rotation. Felton hasn't played all year long and was all of a sudden thrown into a starting role in the biggest game of the season, all while the postseason-tested Barea had to come off the bench.
A huge "what if" hangs over Dallas' 130-128 defeat in Game 3 as a result. What if Aminu and Barea had started and set the tone early? Perhaps Dirk Nowitzki and Monta Ellis' combined 68-point effort wouldn't have gone to waste. Maybe the Mavericks could be tied heading back to Houston for Game 5.
Either way, Carlisle made his move and it will be up to Rockets head coach Kevin McHale to make adjustments in another closeout game on Tuesday. The Mavs will take it game-by-game and continue doing what has yielded positive results over the last two contests.
Keeping tabs on Barea will be McHale's biggest challenge. The Puerto Rican's aggression has taken pressure off of Dirk and Monta, which has allowed them to be very efficient in the last two games.
Barea is a 34.5 percent career three-point shooter, and he has knocked down a couple of open threes in this series. Since Houston has to respect his outside shot, Barea has been able to leverage that to his advantage. The Rockets haven't had an answer for his pick-and-rolls with Nowitzki and Tyson Chandler.
If the Rockets overload on Nowitzki in the pick-and-roll, Barea can get to the rim in a blur. His tiny frame allows him to change direction quicker than most guards, making it easier to get clean looks at the basket. When Houston has turned its attention to Barea, he has shown great patience. Take a look at this picture:
Barea hit Chandler on the roll at the perfect moment here. Dwight Howard was a little reluctant coming over to help initially, but he has no choice once Pablo Prigioni is left in the rear-view mirror. Chandler is sprinting to the rim when he receives the ball on that pick-and-roll, while Howard is rooted in place just outside the paint.
He has occasionally been a little brash with his shot selection, but Barea's emergence as a dual-threat is partly what has kept this series alive. He has almost single-handedly elevated Dallas' pace and resurrected its transition offense.
Aminu is the other piece to the puzzle. Carlisle had him defending Harden for short stints in the first three games, which yielded mixed results. Aminu spent a significant portion of Game 4 on Houston's superstar, this time bothering him like few players in the league can.
The tone was set early when Aminu forced Harden into an eight-second violation:
It's beautiful to watch. Aminu calmly anticipated the dribble pattern and poked the ball out with relative ease. He is terrific at using his long limbs on plays like that, which is something that took Harden aback. Here is another example:
Aminu helped on Howard's post-up, recovered to Harden, stayed down on the little fake, poked the ball out yet again and contested a tough three with the shot clock dwindling down. That is exemplary defense on one of the best offensive players in the league, who was often smothered in similar one-on-one battles with Dallas' defensive ace.
One of the most impressive plays of that duel took place in the third quarter. Take a look:
Notice how high Houston sets the screen—almost at mid-court. Aminu sees the pick before Harden accelerates, which allows him to fight over it and get back to contain the drive in time. Nowitzki also forces Harden into a crossover dribble, slowing him down for just a split second. But that's all Aminu needs to get back in position and block the shot.
Harden has been able to punish the Mavs in semi-transition during this series on almost identical plays to the one above. He has used his burst to get to the rim even off made baskets, something he couldn't do as much in Game 4.
The Rockets have constantly targeted Nowitzki on high pick-and-rolls. With guards slamming into screens and Dirk unable to shuffle his feet fast enough, Houston has created easy dunks on that particular action. Aminu also stepped up in that regard. Here is an example:
Harden gets the phantom superstar call here, but it's great defense nonetheless. Aminu fights over the screen and the re-screen, and he somehow manages to stay in front of Harden before the whistle blows.
Aminu nailing three long-range shots and grabbing 12 huge rebounds in Game 4 was the icing on the cake, while his individual defense on Harden was the main dish.
Houston's star still ended up with 24 points, but that is acceptable. He was limited to just five assists, mainly a result of Aminu doing good work and the Mavs not needing to rotate over on Harden's drives.
If Aminu can maintain a steady offensive game, Dallas will be tough to deal with. He even had an opportunity to post-up Harden, a play he finished with a ferocious dunk. Carlisle rained praise over the young wing after the game.
"He's come light-years this year as a player offensively," Carlisle said, according to Tim MacMahon of ESPNDallas.com. "For a guy who is new to a team, playing a totally different style, it takes a while. It takes a while to learn two positions. He's one of our most relentless workers. He's earned this opportunity. He impacted the game in a lot of ways tonight."
While Aminu and Barea made the biggest difference in Game 4, other players deserve credit as well. Nowitzki and Ellis have been great in the last two games, and even Charlie Villanueva hit a couple of big shots on some nifty sets designed specifically for him. Everyone will need to continue on the same path for Dallas to have a chance in Game 5.
Final Thoughts
Dallas has shown an ability to compete with Houston over the last two games, but a historic comeback is still highly unlikely.
As great as Aminu and Barea have been, it's unfair to expect them to put up monster performances like that again. Even so, they will be a handful to deal with, and McHale will have to figure out a way to keep them under control.
Despite Aminu's individual defensive show, the Mavs still had a lot of problems stopping the Rockets. Guys were falling asleep on backdoor cuts, blowing rotations and over-helping on a lot of occasions. Houston missed a bunch of great looks, and the Mavericks can't expect their opponents to shoot 7-of-31 from beyond the arc again.
With Rajon Rondo out, the offense is clicking. In a lot of ways, Dallas has reverted to its early-season strategy of simply outscoring the opposition. It's not really a sustainable recipe in the playoffs, and that's why the Mavs gambled on bringing in Rondo in the first place. They are now back to their old tricks, but are unfortunately without the Jameer Nelson-Brandan Wright-Jae Crowder trio that went the other way in the Rondo trade.
It would take a miracle for the Mavs to win this series, but they are still alive and have nothing to lose heading into Game 5.
You can follow me on Twitter: @VytisLasaitis
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