Post-2015 Spring Practice College Football Playoff Predictions
Now that spring football is wrapping up, all that's left until the real games of the 2015 college football season is the waiting. About four months' worth, to be exact.
But once that's over, before you know it we'll be watching the second edition of the new playoff format that was such a wild success a year ago. Full of intrigue and excitement, as well as some healthy controversy, we got four of the best teams in the country battling it out in a single-elimination winner-take-all format to crown an undisputed national champion.
So much can happen between now and then, but based on what we've seen in spring practice as well as how all of the top teams stack up, this is our best guess as to who will make the final four and who will walk away with a shiny gold trophy for the school to proudly display.
Just Missed the Cut
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Before getting into the qualifiers, let's spend a little time on the schools that will be in the running but ultimately didn't have enough to earn a spot in the semifinals.
Baylor (11-1)
As coach Art Briles has said, per Bill Bender of the Sporting News, "If you can go undefeated in our league, you'll be in the College Football Playoffs." Yet the Bears won't manage that feat because of a late-November loss at TCU, which will come after a 10-0 start and combined with an awfully weak nonconference slate will cause them to narrowly miss out on the playoffs yet again.
Clemson (11-2)
For several years, Clemson has been the ACC's bridesmaid, losing to Florida State during regular-season play and (by virtue of being in the same division) unable to win the conference title or even get a shot at playing for it. That will change this season, as the Tigers will knock off the Seminoles and also claim the ACC crown, but losses elsewhere will knock them out of the playoff race.
Georgia (11-2)
Another year, another roster with overflowing talent, yet also another season with some surprising slip-ups along the way. Put it all together, and Georgia will have a good year but not good enough to make the semifinals. The Bulldogs will win the SEC East Division but lose in the conference title game and have to settle for playing in the Peach Bowl.
Michigan State (11-1)
The Spartans get a revenge game at home against Oregon early in the season and then get to take on defending national champion Ohio State late in the year. A big win in the former will boost Michigan State's playoff chances early on. But losing at the Buckeyes in November will not only keep it from playing for a Big Ten title; it will prevent MSU from getting a chance at a resume-boosting 13th game.
No. 4 Seed: USC (12-1)
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Out of the west the Trojans come, emerging from a Pac-12 South Division that's almost as deep as the SEC's West. They won't come out unscathed, losing at Arizona State in late September, but big wins at Notre Dame and Oregon as well as in the regular-season finale over rival UCLA will make USC's resume quite strong despite a loss.
A victory over Oregon or Stanford in the conference title game will guarantee USC the league's second straight playoff bid, just barely edging out the rest of the field listed on the previous slide.
And though the selection committee won't admit to it, there will be plenty of discussion that the desire to have a West Coast team in the field (and one that features such a slew of offensive weapons as well as do-everything sophomore Adoree' Jackson) helped the Trojans' cause.
"The Trojans have the right combination of blue-chip talent and experience in the right places," Bleacher Report's Ben Kercheval wrote.
No. 3 Seed: Alabama (12-1)
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After another few months of talk about whether the SEC could get two, maybe three teams into the playoffs—didn't we learn anything from last season?—the dominoes will start falling in November, and only the Crimson Tide will still be standing.
And even they will have a blemish, compliments of Georgia when the teams meet between the hedges in October, but after that Alabama will roll through a strong run of opponents, most of which will come on the road, to win the West Division.
Having knocked off Texas A&M, Mississippi State and Auburn on the road will have the Tide in a prime position to get into the semifinals with a conference title, which will come after avenging that loss to Georgia with a victory in Atlanta.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
No. 2 Seed: TCU (12-0)
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Gary Patterson pitched a six-team playoff after the committee snubbed his Horned Frogs for last year's tournament, but such a format won't be needed as his team navigates the solid Big 12 without a loss and erases any possibility that the conference's lack of a championship game will hurt its chances.
TCU gets its playoff run started with a solid victory over Minnesota on the opening Thursday of the season, but it will be the one-two punch of winning at Oklahoma and then taking down Baylor right after Thanksgiving that seals up the bid.
Trevone Boykin has a Heisman-worthy season at quarterback, and days before spending a Saturday night in New York City at that awards ceremony, he'll be celebrating a playoff appearance.
No. 1 Seed: Ohio State (13-0)
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The defending national champions will be strong favorites to repeat when the season begins, and the results will do nothing to sway sentiment that the Buckeyes are deserving of a shot at another title. Unlike Florida State a year ago, Ohio State won't narrowly beat opponents or have to make major comebacks, not with a lineup that's almost the same as the one that rolled to 13 straight wins after an early loss to Virginia Tech.
The Buckeyes will dominate the Hokies on the road on Labor Day then continue with lopsided results until a critical two-game stretch to end the regular season. First will be a win over Michigan State then the trip to Ann Arbor to face a still-building-but-inspired Michigan team that will prove to be OSU's toughest opponent of the regular season.
All three of OSU's quarterbacks will see time on the way to the playoffs, though Cardale Jones will get the bulk of the work. However, it will be Ezekiel Elliott's huge rushing season that gives the Buckeyes the kind of results that warrant them being the No. 1 seed.
Cotton Bowl (National Semifinal)
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Matchup: No. 3 Alabama vs. No. 2 TCU
The higher seeds get to play in a location as geographically advantageous as possible, and it's hard to find anything more favorable than Fort Worth-based TCU playing 15 miles away at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. But that will also be a familiar locale for Alabama, which will have opened the 2015 season there with a win over Wisconsin.
Both schools will be well-represented in the stands as well as on the field. Heisman Trophy runner-up Trevone Boykin will have matched his production from the year before, while Alabama comes in riding the two-headed monster of bruising running back Derrick Henry and redshirt freshman David Cornwell.
Cornwell, who beat out Jake Coker and others for the starting job in camp, will be used more as a game manager than the center of the offense like Blake Sims was in 2014, but he'll still be effective.
Yet it will end up being the defenses that determine this semifinal outcome. Alabama's front seven, among the best in the country all year, will wreak havoc on TCU's offensive line and rattle Boykin unlike any other team has this season. This will cause the senior to slip back into his freelancing form from two years ago, and a critical late interception will seal the win for the Tide.
Prediction: Alabama 24, TCU 23
Orange Bowl: National Semifinal
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Matchup: No. 4 USC vs. No. 1 Ohio State
There have been seven previous postseason matchups between Ohio State and USC, all in the Rose Bowl as part of the traditional Big Ten/Pac-12 pairing. And while six of those bowls either directly or indirectly impacted who would be named national champion, none had the added allure of being an elimination game like this one.
Ohio State won't have the luxury of playing close to home as the No. 1 seed, but that didn't matter much to it during last year's title run with strong fan showings in the Sugar Bowl and in North Texas. USC will be far less represented by attendees in school colors, having to play across the country from its fanbase due to being the lowest-seeded team in the field.
But it will be USC jumping out to an early lead and (at least temporarily) quieting the crowd with a two-score lead. Looking for a spark, Ohio State coach Urban Meyer will switch from Cardale Jones to J.T. Barrett at quarterback, and suddenly the Buckeyes offense takes off thanks to Barrett's mobility and elusiveness.
With that added element, USC's defense has to start overplaying the edges, which is why Heisman winner Ezekiel Elliott starts gashing the middle. And that leads to a runaway victory.
Prediction: Ohio State 37, USC 24
College Football Championship Game (Glendale, Arizona)
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Matchup: No. 3 Alabama vs. No. 1 Ohio State
The roles have been reversed a year later, with Ohio State entering the national championship as the decided favorite while Alabama is the underdog not given much chance to win. OSU turned those tables as the dark horse last January. Can the Crimson Tide do the same this time around?
That will depend on which quarterback Alabama has to deal with, as Urban Meyer will stay silent during the time between the semifinals and the championship on whether he'll stick with J.T. Barrett or go back to Cardale Jones following the switch midway through the Orange Bowl.
Alabama has to plan for both while also making sure not to forget about Ezekiel Elliott, a task that stretches coordinator Kevin Steele and his defensive staff to the limit during the preparation.
The game plan they come up with is a good one, but it's not good enough to avoid giving up some big plays—or from being able to switch up on the fly as Meyer alternates between Barrett and Jones within the same series.
OSU leads throughout and forces Alabama to have to take to the air early and often, but David Cornwell isn't able to handle the added responsibilities. The Buckeyes repeat as national champions, becoming the first 15-0 team in FBS history and making a great case for being labeled as a dynasty thanks to 28 consecutive victories.
And Meyer, with a fourth title, moves past Nick Saban as the best coach in the game today.
Prediction: Ohio State 33, Alabama 21
Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
