Is Dirk Nowitzki a Victim or Part of Dallas Mavericks' Playoff Problem?
Dirk Nowitzki has been must-see TV in the playoffs for well over a decade now. But all good things come to an end, and Dirk's performances in the Dallas Mavericks' first-round series against the Houston Rockets have left conflicting impressions so far. That has to change for the injury-riddled Mavs to survive.
With Rajon Rondo being out indefinitely, and Chandler Parsons done for the rest of the season, all eyes will be on Nowitzki in Game 3. He has shown signs of his vintage form, but it hasn't been entirely pretty.
Nowitzki looked like his former self in Game 1. He was scoring at will in the post, swishing jumpers over helpless defenders with relative ease and finding his sweet spots in transition. He scored 24 points and hit an efficient 10-of-14 from the field.
Game 2 was another story.
The Rockets sent a lot more double-teams his way, especially when he had a mismatch. He did good work on the glass but was just 3-of-14 from the field and couldn't buy a bucket late in the game.
Even though he wasn't shooting well, Nowitzki almost always found the open man when drawing a double-team. When a second defender doesn't come fast enough, Dirk usually finds a way to score:
James Harden knew he couldn't hold his ground against Nowitzki, so he gambled for a steal. Dirk burned him by turning to the basket and laying it in.
Nowitzki has also had more success posting smaller guys up at the free-throw line, where he can scout the floor better and easily shoot over the top.
With Parsons out for the rest of the season with a knee injury, the pressure on Nowitzki to carry the offense has massively increased. He can't simply spot-up beyond the three-point line like he has done most of the season. He is never left open, and other Mavericks have had little success driving and pulling Dirk's defender away from him.
As a result, Nowitzki has only attempted three long-range shots in the first two games. Dallas head coach Rick Carlisle has had Dirk running off screens to create space for mid-range jumpers, but he still spends the majority of his minutes pushing and pulling with Houston's bigs down low.
Unfortunately, the Mavs simply don't have enough three-point shooters and haven't been able to punish Houston's strategy to overload on Nowitzki.
Dirk can still be a major difference-maker, but he isn't able to single-handedly carry the Mavs offense anymore. He is 36, and vintage playoff Nowitzki isn't returning. It was painful to watch him brick jumper after jumper in the fourth quarter of Game 2, when he clearly didn't have his legs under him.
Nowitzki logged 37 minutes and wasn't contributing with much in the fourth quarter. It felt as though he would've benefited from being pulled early in the period to catch his breath. That is especially the case, given Nowitzki has been dreadful defensively and brings nothing to the floor if his offense isn't clicking.
It's no news that Dirk is a minus-defender. He has slow feet and lacks the lateral movement required to match younger, more athletic players.
Throughout the regular season, Carlisle has found ways to hide Nowitzki on slower and less offensively proficient players. He has used Dirk in a lot of otherwise bench-exclusive lineups, having him matched up against the opposing reserves for long stretches of games.
In a playoff series such as this, Carlisle doesn't have that luxury. He is forced to play Nowitzki big minutes with Parsons out and his offensive weapons severely limited. But Dirk's inability to stay in front of anyone is one of the biggest issues for the Mavericks.
Nowitzki has been especially exposed in the pick-and-roll:
Look at how Dirk stepped into the path of Harden but was then extremely slow to recover to the rolling Josh Smith, putting Tyson Chandler in an impossible one-on-two predicament.
A four-minute compilation featuring plays almost identical to the one above could be composed out of just the first two games. Nowitzki is constantly stepping out to deter the opposing ball-handler's drives, but rarely stops the dribble or forces a change of direction. That allows Harden and other guards to consistently find the roll man with a bounce pass, after which a great look is almost guaranteed.
Houston is regularly singling out Nowitzki in pick-and-rolls, and rightfully so. The Rockets even had Smith playing point forward down the stretch of Game 2, forcing Dirk to guard the ball-handler. That didn't go very well, either:
In this play, Harden set the pick and Smith simply blew by Dirk for an easy shot at the basket. The Rockets also ran a ton of pick-and-rolls with Smith and Dwight Howard to great success.
Nowitzki has been struggling outside of the pick-and-roll as well. The Rockets love playing small lineups, which forces Dirk to step out of the paint. But even Houston's regular power forwards Terrence Jones and Smith are able to abuse Nowitzki one-on-one. Here Jones got to the free-throw line with ease after faking him out:
Dirk has also been getting lost in transition a little bit, as Jones likes to slide out to the wings when Houston pushes the ball. Look how open Jones was when he received the ball by the time Nowitzki spotted him here:
Nowitzki is a major problem defensively, but the Mavs have collectively been off. The rotations are slow, guys are giving up on plays and there just isn't much energy. That's simply not going to cut it against a team such as Houston, which probes the defense and lives off open threes and drive-and-kicks. Here is an example:
Al-Farouq Aminu got behind the play after ramming into Howard's screen, and the Mavs had to scramble to cover every open man. But in the end, Nowitzki's terrible closeout attempt on Corey Brewer was the nail in the coffin.
Final Thoughts
The Mavericks are in a desperate hole right now.
Rajon Rondo logged just 10 minutes in Game 2, picking up four fouls while playing recklessly. He spent the entire fourth quarter sitting next to the cameramen along the baseline, observing the action. That's not exactly what the Mavs had in mind when they gave up three role players to land him. Now that Raymond Felton is playing big minutes ahead of Rondo in the playoffs, the trade looks like a complete disaster.
It's crazy to say, but Carlisle should continue playing Felton over Rondo if he doesn't change his attitude (assuming he gets healthy for the series, which seems unlikely). Rondo turned the ball over on an eight-second violation off a defensive rebound in the first quarter and followed that up by completely abandoning Jason Terry the very next possession. It looks like he has completely quit on his team.
With Rondo sulking, Parsons out and Devin Harris also being banged up, the pressure on Dirk's shoulders has been excruciating. The idea going into the season was that Nowitzki would simply stretch the floor and occasionally get the offense going in the post. He cannot create a good look every trip down the floor. He doesn't have the legs for it, and Houston won't let him.
The Mavs need Nowitzki's offense, but Carlisle has to be more willing to sit his superstar down for longer periods when the shots are not falling, especially considering the defensive burden Dirk has been. Aminu isn't quite the offensive player, but his energy and hustle can change games, and he is competent enough to play big postseason minutes.
Nowitzki is very much part of the problem for the Mavericks in this series, but it's hard to not feel sorry for him as he tries to explain the struggle.
"I just never got a good rhythm today," Dirk said after Game 2, reported by Bryan Gutierrez of Mavericks Outsider Report. "I'm not sure why. I felt decent. I tried to battle. I just didn't have the touch tonight unfortunately."
For all his defensive mishaps, Nowitzki is still a warrior and is playing extremely hard. But with his supporting cast having been practically nonexistent so far, it's hard seeing the Mavericks surviving this series.
Carlisle will continue to make adjustments, but the collective energy and effort has to increase tenfold if Dallas is to even win one game.
You can follow me on Twitter: @VytisLasaitis
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