Predicting Which 2015 NBA Lottery Teams Will Make Playoffs Next Season
The NBA has never been a breeding ground for parity, but every new season sees a select few lottery entrants wedge their way into the postseason conversation without fail.
This year, it was the Boston Celtics, Milwaukee Bucks, Cleveland Cavaliers and New Orleans Pelicans who forced their way into the playoffs a year after a trip to the lottery.
Which lottery-bound teams are primed to make a leap to playoff glory next season?
Based on current roster construction, post-All-Star performance during the 2014-15 campaign and upcoming cap space, five franchises separated themselves from the 14-team lottery pack as potentially praise-worthy 2015-16 performers. Prospective Eastern Conference teams outweighed Western Conference clubs based on the East's comparative lack of depth.
With those qualifications in mind, the following five organizations appear to have the pieces necessary to break through the postseason barrier. Nothing is guaranteed in the NBA, but these squads have a chance at redemption in 2015-16.
Charlotte Hornets
1 of 5
Projected Lottery Position: No. 9 overall
The Charlotte Hornets disappointed in their much-anticipated return to purple and teal, but perhaps their emergence is just on a delayed schedule.
Al Jefferson combated nagging injuries throughout the season, Lance Stephenson was an offensive train wreck—shooting an all-time worst 17.1 percent from three (minimum 100 attempts), according to ESPN.com's Marc Stein—and Kemba Walker missed a month-and-a-half with a torn lateral meniscus in his left knee.
But that's all in the past.
Jefferson is on the record saying he won't opt out of his player option, according to The Charlotte Observer's Rick Bonnell, and his All-NBA low-post scoring capabilities are still one of the league's most lethal weapons in isolation.
"I've got unfinished business here," Jefferson said, per Bonnell. "That's not even an option for me. Unless something dramatic changed, I can't see myself opting out, and leaving that bad taste in my mouth. And in the Charlotte Hornets' mouth. I can't walk away from that."
As for Stephenson—who's coming up on the final guaranteed year of his deal with the Hornets—his redemption hinges on stroking the rock at even a respectable rate.
Per Bonnell, Stephenson is focused on doing just that:
"My 3-point percentage was the lowest ever in history. That’s terrible. I have to come in and figure out how to be a better shooter. Being a good shooter will help my overall game. When people sag off of me (playing him to drive), it’s harder for me to be successful.
It’s confidence—just wanting the shot to go in so bad and then you lose your confidence. That plays a major part when you don’t have confidence in your shot. This summer I’m going to find my confidence.
"
The Hornets desperately need improvement from last summer's big signing, because only the New York Knicks and Philadelphia 76ers were more incompetent on offense this season. That's cringe-worthy company.
However, Charlotte can still hang its hat on a top-10 defense that has emerged as the team's backbone under head coach Steve Clifford.
In a volatile Eastern Conference, don't sleep on Charlotte's ability to achieve upward mobility.
Indiana Pacers
2 of 5
Projected Lottery Position: No. 11 overall
The Indiana Pacers were never able to recover from Paul George's offseason leg fracture one year after making a second straight Eastern Conference Finals appearance.
Although they mounted a late-season charge by going 6-2 in April, the Pacers couldn't overcome their lack of punch in the scoring department. Tied for the league's seventh-worst offense, Indiana scored at a rate equal to that of the Los Angeles Lakers, who just wrapped up their worst season in franchise history.
And after playing at a sub-average pace for the fourth year in a row, changes are in order.
According to the Pacers' Twitter, team president Larry Bird wants his team to play at "a little faster tempo... We’ve gotta score more points and to do that, you’ve gotta run."
With stylistic alterations in mind, the Pacers also appear to be nudging Roy Hibbert toward declining his $15.5 million player option for next season, according to The Indianapolis Star's Candace Buckner. Whether publicly discussing the likely reduction of Hibbert's role is enough to make him decline a large guarantee remains to be seen, but it's certainly a bold step.
Bleacher Report's Dan Favale explained why Hibbert's style of play isn't conducive to Indiana's new preference:
"If the Pacers are really going to push the pace next season, he's not someone they can count on even a little bit. They used just 94.14 possessions per 48 minutes with him in the game, the equivalent of running with bottom-five speed.
Relying on slow half-court sets is generally frowned upon in today's pace-and-space NBA, but plodding systems can be effective or semi-successful so long as the primary center wields a strong back-to-the-basket game.
Which Hibbert does not.
"
With or without Hibbert, the Pacers should compete for a playoff spot in the lowly East next season. A healthy George will expedite the team's ascent into respectable offensive territory, and (hopefully) a full season of George Hill will provide balance in the backcourt.
Entering the summer with financial flexibility, Indiana is in a favorable spot to rebound from its disappointing 2014-15 campaign.
Miami Heat
3 of 5
Projected Lottery Position: No. 10 overall
A perfect storm of transitional struggles and injuries sent the Miami Heat tumbling down the standings this season, but they'll be back in the postseason before long.
Added wear and tear on Dwyane Wade's fragile knees during a largely wasted season was hardly ideal, but the midseason acquisition of Goran Dragic will make Miami a contender for a sizable leap up the Eastern Conference ranks during the 2015-16 campaign.
However, Miami will need to empty its wallet in order to retain Dragic, who will be opting out of $7.5 million guaranteed next season to become a free agent, according to the Sun Sentinel's Ira Winderman.
"I like this organization, this basketball style," Dragic said, according to Winderman. "I had a great time here in Miami. I want to come back, but we'll see what happens."
Based on those comments and Dragic's preference to sign a five-year deal over a four-year pact, per the Miami Herald's Joseph Goodman, Miami should be the odds-on favorite to ink the Slovenian floor general this summer.
A return from Chris Bosh—who was sidelined for the remainder of the regular season on Feb. 20 with blood clots in his lungs—will also provide Miami with a major boost.
"We're going to have an opportunity," Bosh said, according to Winderman, "and the opportunity is there. I think next year will be about really functioning as a team."
With added depth in the form of a healthy Josh McRoberts and the continued emergence of Hassan Whiteside, there's reason to believe Miami can return to elite form.
Oklahoma City Thunder
4 of 5
Projected Lottery Position: No. 14 overall
After making five straight postseason appearances from 2010 to 2014, the Oklahoma City Thunder missed out on the party in a season ravaged by injuries to Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and Serge Ibaka.
And while the harsh regression can be blamed on bumps and bruises, Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski reports the Thunder are re-evaluating head coach Scott Brooks, noting "several league sources close to Brooks have doubts about his job security."
But as Ibaka told reporters, according to The Oklahoman's Anthony Slater, canning Brooks based on uncontrollable circumstances isn't exactly rational:
"Why are you going to fire him? What has he done? Injuries were not his fault. Why would he go? He has not done anything, he’s not responsible for the injuries. He did his best with the team he had. Would other coach do better with a team with so many injuries? What could (Scott Brooks) possibly do about it? The team is with him. You can’t blame him for what has happened.
"
Should Durant (foot) and Ibaka (knee) make full recoveries from their respective injuries, the Thunder will be right back in the thick of the Western Conference title conversation come next season.
However, they need to display serious defensive improvement in order to climb toward the top of the NBA ladder again.
After acquiring Enes Kanter at the trade deadline, the Thunder's defense ranked 27th in efficiency, with only the Minnesota Timberwolves, Los Angeles Lakers and Sacramento Kings clocking in below them.
Ibaka's return will help provide some semblance of an interior equilibrium, but Kanter knows he needs to improve.
"Kanter even cops to his particular weakness," The Oklahoman's Berry Tramel wrote. "Says he plans to get a point guard out on the court with him this summer and work on the pick-and-roll. Get his defensive footwork to match his offensive footwork, which is quite deft and efficient."
Adjustments have to be made, but a team with two healthy top-five players has a shot at reaching the NBA summit.
Utah Jazz
5 of 5
Projected Lottery Position: No. 12 overall
Nope, not a typo.
If the same Utah Jazz team that showed up after the trade deadline comes ready to play next season, they will remain highly competitive in the race for one of the Western Conference's final playoff spots.
Not only did Utah finish a game back of the 10th-seeded Phoenix Suns with a record of 38-44, but its defense is a matchup nightmare.
From Feb. 19 on, Utah touted the league's most efficient defense, holding opponents to 94.8 points per 100 possessions. That's 4.6 points better than the Memphis Grizzlies and Milwaukee Bucks, who tied for No. 2 overall in that span.
Utah's defense was so good over the season's final two months that it contributed to a net rating of plus-6.9 points per 100 possessions—the same as the Cleveland Cavaliers.
Quin Snyder's offense still has kinks to work out, but the return of starting shooting guard Alec Burks from a season-ending shoulder injury should help buoy a unit that ranked at the league average in terms of efficiency.
"I hope I’m the missing piece," Burks said, according to the Deseret News' Jody Genessy. "I really hope so. I hope that I take us to the playoffs."
With shot-blocking terror Rudy Gobert eyeing an offseason full of offensive growth, per SLC Dunk, and Gordon Hayward on a studly scoring trajectory, Utah shouldn't fly under the radar much longer.
All statistics are current as of April 19 and courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com, unless noted otherwise.
