2015 NBA Free Agents: Predictions for Top Available Players This Summer
While the NBA postseason is sure to be a spectacular affair, featuring plenty of memorable matchups, the 14 teams that aren't involved in the proceedings are going to be awfully bored if they don't have anything to think about. Fortunately, they have free agency to look forward to, and plenty of big-name players could soon become available.
Of course, the current playoff squads will be thinking about this too in coming weeks, even if their focuses currently rest elsewhere.
Between now and the actual start of the offseason, plenty of news will break. Some players will officially opt out or make it clear they'd like to go to a certain location. Others will hold tight amid the breathless speculation about their futures.
But we already know enough to make some educated guesses about the eventual landing spots of the league's most prominent upcoming free agents.
Those Who Aren't Turning Down Player Options to Go Elsewhere
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Luol Deng, SF, Miami Heat ($10,151,612 in 2015-16)
Three Miami Heat players show up in this section, and Luol Deng would fall behind only a certain shooting guard if we were ranking those least likely to flee. After all, this veteran small forward isn't turning down over $10 million for a smaller payday, and he's not getting a big one with this much wear and tear on his worn-down tires.
Goran Dragic, PG, Miami Heat ($7,500,000 in 2015-16)
While Goran Dragic will test the market, he's not doing so for any reason other than maximizing his leverage and signing a long-term deal with the team that traded for him. He's already told Bleacher Report's Ethan Skolnick that he wants to return: "I had a great time here in Miami. I want to come back, but we'll see what happens."
Lest we forget, the Miami Heat were indeed on his list of top choices when he was still a part of the Phoenix Suns, as Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo Sports reported.
Roy Hibbert, C, Indiana Pacers ($15,514,031 in 2015-16)
According to Scout.com's Phillip B. Wilson, Larry Bird has already stated that Roy Hibbert didn't play well this season and will have a smaller role if he's back next year. But even with that warning ringing in his ear, the big man will return.
He has about 15.5 million reasons to do so, and no team will offer him nearly that many if he hits free agency.
LeBron James, SF, Cleveland Cavaliers ($21,573,398 in 2015-16)
Let's turn to Bleacher Report's Kelly Scaletta for this one:
"The list of reasons that LeBron James isn’t going anywhere:
- He’s not going to commit career suicide.
- He has no financial incentive to turn down his option, as he’s better off inking a new deal after the new TV deal kicks in.
- He’s not going to commit career suicide.
- He really does want to win a title with the Cleveland Cavaliers.
- He’s not going to commit career suicide.
- His family is at home in Cleveland.
And, oh yeah, he’s not going to commit career suicide.
"
Al Jefferson, C, Charlotte Hornets ($13,500,000 in 2015-16)
"I've got unfinished business here. That's not even an option for me," Al Jefferson told Rick Bonnell of The Charlotte Observer after his season came to a close. "Unless something dramatic changed, I can't see myself opting out and leaving that bad taste in my mouth. And in the Charlotte Hornets' mouth. I can't walk away from that."
Brook Lopez, C, Brooklyn Nets ($16,744,218 in 2015-16)
Based on his play during the second half of the season, Brook Lopez could certainly test the waters and see what type of contract offer he could get from a team with lots of cap space. The Los Angeles Lakers, for example.
But there are still too many concerns here, and Lopez would be better off enjoying his guaranteed financial windfall while proving that he can stay healthy and remain effective for a longer stretch. Then, it's time to cash in with a long-term deal.
Dwyane Wade, SG, Miami Heat ($16,125,000 in 2015-16)
Duh?
Dwyane Wade is the Miami Heat. He ain't going anywhere.
David West, PF, Indiana Pacers ($12,600,000 in 2015-16)
David West started his career with the New Orleans Hornets, but he's a vital part of the Indiana Pacers organization now, so often functioning as the team's heart and soul. He surely knows that better things are in store next year, especially with Paul George back on the court and again occupying his place in the realm of NBA stars.
Arron Afflalo, Portland Trail Blazers
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Position: SG/SF
Age: 29
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 13.3 points, 3.2 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 0.5 steals, 0.1 blocks, 10.7 PER
Type of Free Agency: player option ($7,500,00 in 2015-16)
Arron Afflalo is used to bigger roles, and he's more than capable of handling them when he's in the right system (aka not Brian Shaw's offensive schemes with the Denver Nuggets). We're still only one year removed from this shooting guard looking like a fringe All-Star candidate while he was suiting up for the Orlando Magic.
Choosing to pick up his player option means resigning himself to a season filled with appearances off the bench. He knows he'd be backing up Wesley Matthews, and the Portland Trail Blazers like to keep their starting unit on the court as much as possible.
It's tough to see Afflalo just accepting that, especially when he can be a featured offensive option elsewhere. Though this is pure speculation, imagine him on the Indiana Pacers, suiting up next to Paul George on the wings and getting plenty of touches on a team that needs more offensive-minded players.
Prediction: Afflalo signs a long-term deal with the Indiana Pacers.
LaMarcus Aldridge, Portland Trail Blazers
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Position: PF
Age: 29
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 23.4 points, 10.2 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 0.7 steals, 1.0 blocks, 22.8 PER
Type of Free Agency: unrestricted
ESPN.com's Ramona Shelburne recently revealed on 710 ESPN's Mason and Ireland that LaMarcus Aldridge may not be a guaranteed re-signing for the Portland Trail Blazers (h/t LakersNation.com's Ryan Ward):
"I think LaMarcus Aldridge is actually a lot more in play than people think.
You have that group there. How can you really improve that group up in Portland? I think Neil [Olshey] has done a great job up there, but it's Portland, he's never quite fit in and they've made it really clear that Damian Lillard is the face of their franchise.
"
However, why can't there be two faces of the franchise? It's not as if Rip City has ever wavered in its commitment to Aldridge, and he's quite clearly a vital part of a starting lineup that, when healthy, is perennially among the league's best.
"I want to be the best Blazer—ever..." Aldridge explained last summer to The Oregonian's Joe Freeman. "I should be able to leave a mark on a big-time franchise that is going to be seen forever. And I will be able to say I played here my whole career. This city has embraced me and grown with me. I have so much history, it just makes sense to stay."
It still makes sense.
Prediction: Aldridge re-ups on max deal with the Portland Trail Blazers.
Jimmy Butler, Chicago Bulls
4 of 17
Position: SG
Age: 25
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 20.0 points, 5.8 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 1.8 steals, 0.6 blocks, 21.3 PER
Type of Free Agency: restricted ($3,013,123 qualifying offer)
Is there any doubt about what's going to happen here?
No matter how much money another team throws at Jimmy Butler, the Chicago Bulls are going to match the offer sheet and bring him back to the Windy City on a long-term deal. He's too vital to this organization, especially after his breakout year proved he could be a 20-point scorer in addition to serving as a defensive stopper.
I'd say the chances of Butler going elsewhere are slim to none, but that would be incorrect.
They're far closer to none than slim.
Prediction: Chicago Bulls match max offer for Butler.
Monta Ellis, Dallas Mavericks
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Position: SG
Age: 29
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 18.9 points, 2.4 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 1.9 steals, 0.3 blocks, 16.5 PER
Type of Free Agency: player option ($8,720,000 in 2015-16)
Monta Ellis may be the most fascinating potential free agent of all.
First, he has to decide whether he wants to opt into the final year of his deal with the Dallas Mavericks or hit the open market. It's a decision that may be made all the more complicated because he took so long finding the right offer during his last time as part of the free-agent pool. And if he does opt out, he'll then have to find the right home for his set of skills.
Chances are, he's going to take the plunge, especially in light of ESPNDallas.com's Tim MacMahon reporting on the headaches he's causing within the organization: "But Ellis' value is dipping by the day. If you're going to be high maintenance like Ellis is, you'd better be worth the headaches. Ellis sure as heck hasn't been for the last couple of months."
So, if not Dallas, where?
Ellis thrives in offensively geared systems that play uptempo basketball, and there's one of those northwest of his current location, just waiting to spend some of its cap room on a player with star upside. Yes, that would be the Denver Nuggets, a squad that will get even more appealing to Ellis if it hires a certain coach with the last name D'Antoni.
Prediction: Ellis opts out and flees to the Denver Nuggets a on mid-tier deal.
Marc Gasol, Memphis Grizzlies
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Position: C
Age: 30
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 17.4 points, 7.8 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 0.9 steals, 1.6 blocks, 21.7 PER
Type of Free Agency: unrestricted
Marc Gasol spent much of the year embroiled in a heated battle with DeMarcus Cousins for the right to be called the best center in basketball. And now, he's going to be hitting the open market, which means plenty of suitors will come calling.
The New York Knicks are sure to have interest, as will the Los Angeles Lakers. And you can throw pretty much any team with a hole at center and money to spend into the equation as well.
But no matter how many offers he receives, Gasol isn't going anywhere. There's little to no chance of him abandoning the relationship he enjoys with Memphis—and that refers to both the team, his teammates and the fans who routinely support the Beale Street squad.
Expect Gasol to give the Grizz a bit of a hometown discount, turning down max deals for a chance to stay and continue growing with the team that has been so good to him over the past few years. For a player whose value is only upped when he perfectly understands defensive rotations and the cutting locations of his teammates, as is the case with Memphis, there's no better choice.
Prediction: Gasol gives the Memphis Grizzlies a hometown discount.
Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors
7 of 17
Position: SF/PF
Age: 25
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 11.7 points, 8.2 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 1.6 steals, 1.3 blocks, 16.4 PER
Type of Free Agency: restricted ($1,181,348 qualifying offer)
Draymond Green is such a key piece of the incredible puzzle the Golden State Warriors have built, and there's absolutely no chance management is just going to let him walk now. Not after investing so much into his development and reaping the benefits all season long.
After all, Green isn't just a candidate for Defensive Player of the Year now. He's one of the heavy favorites, along with Kawhi Leonard, and he was the Bleacher Report NBA staff's choice for the award:
"Draymond Green has been a defensive diamond in the rough for the Golden State Warriors, transforming from a tweener to a do-it-all combo forward under the tutelage of head coach Steve Kerr.
In his third professional season and first as a full-time starter, Green has posted the league’s fourth-best defensive rating while ranking second on the Warriors in net rating at more than plus-16 points per 100 possessions. Stephen Curry is the only Golden State Warrior who’s been more efficient on a game-by-game basis.
"
The Dubs will surely match any offer that Green signs during the offseason, even if it's a max deal. He's worth it, especially now that the analytic movement is allowing defensive impact to be measured more accurately.
That said, expect the Warriors to submit an early offer to Green and lock him up before anyone else comes around with a tempting contract.
Prediction: Golden State Warriors lock him up just below max money.
Tobias Harris, Orlando Magic
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Position: SF/PF
Age: 22
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 17.1 points, 6.3 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.5 blocks, 16.7 PER
Type of Free Agency: Restricted ($3,394,726 qualifying offer)
"We don't envision a scenario in which Tobias isn't with us," Orlando Magic general manager Rob Hennigan recently told Brian Schmitz of the Orlando Sentinel. But it's easy to say that now, keeping all options open before the free-agency frenzy actually begins in full force.
And as Alex Kennedy wrote for Basketball Insiders back in December, there are going to be plenty of teams giving this restricted free agent a call:
"The New York Knicks have been mentioned as possible suitor for Harris, as he is from Long Island and is good friends with Carmelo Anthony (they even work out together in the summer). The Los Angeles Lakers could be an option as well, since he would fit in with their young core and be the leading scorer that they need for life after Kobe Bryant.
If teams like the Knicks and Lakers strike out on some of the big-name free agents, Harris could get a serious look.
"
In particular, the Los Angeles Lakers should be a threat to offer Harris a sizable contract, one that the Magic don't actually want to match. Orlando has Aaron Gordon waiting in the wings, can add another strong forward in the draft and has plenty of young talent on the roster already, but the Purple and Gold are far more desperate to find immediate contributors with plenty of untapped potential.
A forward nucleus of Harris and Julius Randle would look quite good going forward.
Prediction: Los Angeles Lakers pry him away.
Reggie Jackson, Detroit Pistons
9 of 17
Position: PG
Age: 25
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 14.5 points, 4.2 rebounds, 6.0 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.1 blocks, 17.2 PER
Type of Free Agency: restricted ($3,222,788 qualifying offer)
Reggie Jackson was utterly unbelievable down the stretch. As in, I literally couldn't believe that such a shot-happy and inefficient player with the Oklahoma City Thunder could blossom so quickly while adapting to a new role with the Detroit Pistons.
During his last 16 games, Jackson averaged 19.9 points, 4.9 rebounds and 10.9 dimes, while shooting 48 percent from the field, 39.1 percent beyond the arc and 75.3 percent at the stripe. He was so good that he probably bumped himself up in the pay scale this summer, and that doesn't bode well for the Detroit Pistons.
Expect the New York Knicks—a team sorely in need of a promising point guard, as well as one that was already linked to Jackson at the trade deadline, per Marc Berman of the New York Post—to come calling with a Godfather offer. That franchise desperately needs a talent infusion from the free-agent pool, and adding Jackson to a core that will include Carmelo Anthony and a top pick in the 2015 NBA draft makes for a strong start.
Prediction: New York Knicks get him for just below max money.
DeAndre Jordan, Los Angeles Clippers
10 of 17
Position: C
Age: 26
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 11.5 points, 15.0 rebounds, 0.7 assists, 1.0 steals, 2.2 blocks, 21.0 PER
Type of Free Agency: unrestricted
DeAndre Jordan is far too important to the Los Angeles Clippers for them to let him walk during the hottest months of the year.
He's a centerpiece of the defense, even if Kelly Scaletta accurately explains for BBallBreakdown.com that Jordan doesn't even belong in the Defensive Player of the Year discussion. And that's not even his biggest strength. The forte isn't offense either, though Jordan is insanely efficient and a constant threat to throw down a vicious slam.
Rebounding is his attribute du jour, and he just blew away the field in 2014-15 with his historically impressive 15 boards per game.
Unless the Clippers feel a crazy need to break up their trio of stars, which would only happen in the event of a humiliatingly lopsided defeat at the hands of the San Antonio Spurs in the first round of the Western Conference playoffs, he's going to come back to the Staples Center.
And he won't be wearing purple.
Prediction: Los Angeles Clippers ink him to long-term contract.
Brandon Knight, Phoenix Suns
11 of 17
Position: PG
Age: 23
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 17.0 points, 3.9 rebounds, 5.2 assists, 1.4 steals, 0.2 blocks, 17.1 PER
Type of Free Agency: restricted ($4,790,680 qualifying offer)
The Phoenix Suns placed their future in the hands of Brandon Knight, so of course they're going to match any offer that trickles in from another team.
Technically, the history books will show that Phoenix traded Tyler Ennis, Miles Plumlee and a 2015 first-round pick (via the Los Angeles Lakers) that's protected for the top five picks to acquire his services. But the reality of the situation is that they parted with Goran Dragic and Isaiah Thomas, opening up room in their backcourt for the former Milwaukee Buck.
We didn't get to see much of how Knight and Eric Bledsoe, the incumbent guard in this equation, coexisted, as Knight was hurt for much of his time in the desert. But theoretically, they should work quite nicely, especially with Bledsoe thriving off the ball all season.
Even if this 23-year-old signs a max-offer sheet with another team, the Suns will pony up and match it. They really have no other choice in their semi-rebuilding, semi-competitive state.
Prediction: Phoenix Suns match any offer.
Kawhi Leonard, San Antonio Spurs
12 of 17
Position: SF
Age: 23
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 16.5 points, 7.2 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 2.3 steals, 0.8 blocks, 22.0 PER
Type of Free Agency: restricted ($4,045,894 qualifying offer)
Let's play a game.
Which is more likely: Kawhi Leonard leaving the San Antonio Spurs, who would choose not to match a max offer sheet in this hypothetical situation, or Tim Duncan electing to stave off retirement but going to a different organization rather than returning to his current stomping grounds?
There's only one correct answer.
Neither. They're both impossible.
Prediction: Leonard signs a max deal with the San Antonio Spurs.
Kevin Love, Cleveland Cavaliers
13 of 17
Position: PF
Age: 26
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 16.4 points, 9.7 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 0.7 steals, 0.5 blocks, 18.8 PER
Type of Free Agency: player option ($16,744,219 in 2015-16)
Forget everything you've heard during the season about Kevin Love's impending free agency. What he's said on the topic simply doesn't matter, and neither does any previous rumors and speculation.
Love will ultimately go down one of two paths.
If the Cleveland Cavaliers advance deep in the playoffs—consider "deep" as making it to at least the Eastern Conference Finals, though even that may not be enough—he'll come back. Winning is the ultimate panacea in the NBA, and he'll be more willing to accept his reduced and altered role if he experiences so much success for the first time in his career.
But if the Cavs are upset by an Eastern squad, expect an opt-out and a long free-agency saga, likely culminating in him finding a featured role elsewhere. The Boston Celtics may be the leading candidates in this scenario, but he could ultimately go anywhere if he's too unhappy with Cleveland to stay put.
Right now, we just have no idea what's going to happen. That'll change in the next month or so.
Prediction: come back in mid-June
Wesley Matthews, Portland Trail Blazers
14 of 17
Position: SG
Age: 28
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 15.9 points, 3.7 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 1.3 steals, 0.2 blocks, 16.1 PER
Type of Free Agency: unrestricted
Here's another player with no chance of leaving.
Ever since joining the Portland Trail Blazers after his season with the Utah Jazz as an undrafted rookie, Wesley Matthews has called Rip City home. That's going to be true for, at the very least, the duration of one more contract.
Matthews is too important to Portland, and he's a member of an impressive starting five that simply shouldn't be broken up. Eventually, the Blazers are going to figure out how to assemble a more fear-inspiring bench, and that may already be happening as players such as Meyers Leonard and C.J. McCollum continue to improve.
Yes, it's troublesome that he's going to be coming back from a ruptured Achilles. But again, he's too important to this team, and that was made particularly clear by the fact that Rip City was 5.3 points per 100 possessions better with him on the floor.
With the exception of Victor Claver, who played only 76 minutes all season, no player had a better on/off disparity. Not Damian Lillard (2.3). Not LaMarcus Aldridge (5.1).
Not anyone.
Prediction: Matthews signs an eight-figure contract with the Portland Trail Blazers.
Paul Millsap, Atlanta Hawks
15 of 17
Position: PF
Age: 30
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 16.7 points, 7.8 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 1.8 steals, 0.9 blocks, 20.1 PER
Type of Free Agency: unrestricted
Paul Millsap originally signed a two-year deal with the Atlanta Hawks, but that was so he could get one big extension while he was still 30, not because he wanted an early exit from his new franchise. Why in the world would that have changed?
Not only has Millsap enjoyed a fantastic season, helping lead his team to the first 60-win campaign in franchise history, as well as the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference, but he's been recognized for his efforts on a national level.
Last January, he received the first and only Player of the Week nomination in his career. This January, his first Player of the Month selection—along with the rest of the Hawks starters. He's even made the All-Star squad in both seasons.
But beyond that, this is a team that thrives on chemistry, and that's often hard to come by in professional basketball. The buy-in Mike Budenholzer has received from everyone involved is quite impressive, and Millsap surely knows how hard that would be to recreate elsewhere.
Prediction: Millsap takes a hometown discount with the Atlanta Hawks.
Greg Monroe, Detroit Pistons
16 of 17
Position: PF/C
Age: 24
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 15.9 points, 10.2 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 1.1 steals, 0.5 blocks, 21.2 PER
Type of Free Agency: unrestricted
It's finally time to see if Greg Monroe's gamble is going to pay off.
After a frustrating offseason, Monroe accepted the Detroit Pistons' qualifying offer, avoiding restricted free agency but gaining a no-trade clause as he waited to become an unrestricted free agent one year later. Now, he gets to test the open market after a fantastic season in the Motor City, one that saw him remain professional and improve his game throughout the year.
"Superagent David Falk said Pistons impending unrestricted free-agent center Greg Monroe hasn't yet made his 'short list' of teams he's interested in, but he indicated strongly the Knicks are expected to be squarely on it," Marc Berman reports for the New York Post in a bit of news that will surprise absolutely no one.
After all, we've known for a while now that Monroe's talents make him a strong fit for the Triangle offense, and the Knicks certainly covet a skilled center to pair with Carmelo Anthony.
"Do I think he'd be a good fit for the Knicks? Absolutely," Falk posited. "He'd be a good fit for 30 teams. Can he work in the triangle? Sure. He played the Princeton offense at Georgetown. He could play in the rhombus. He'd be a great fit for any system."
Well, only one system can have him, and the best bet is one with three sides. It's the same one that would boast the services of Anthony, Monroe, Reggie Jackson and an early pick in the 2015 NBA draft, if our early predictions end up proving prophetic.
Prediction: Monroe cashes in on gamble with the New York Knicks.
Rajon Rondo, Dallas Mavericks
17 of 17
Position: PG
Age: 29
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 8.9 points, 5.5 rebounds, 7.9 assists, 1.3 steals, 0.1 blocks, 13.5 PER
Type of Free Agency: unrestricted
As Ramona Shelburne writes for ESPN.com, acquiring Rajon Rondo is risky, but it's a chance worth taking:
"Yes. It's a risk, but at the right price I think it's worth it. Rondo might be hard to coach, but he's respected by players around the league and it's never a bad thing to have a pass-first point guard.
I wouldn't commit to this course without doing due diligence on Marc Gasol, LaMarcus Aldridge and others, but the Lakers need to get someone this summer as it's the last summer they'll have more cap space than everyone else.
"
For the record, the other members of the panel were split. Baxter Holmes agrees with Shelburne, but only if the right pieces are acquired as well, while Arash Markazi thinks it's a bad idea to hand Rondo a big contract.
Pushing yours truly in Shelburne's direction are the sentiments of Kobe Bryant. We already know that he was disappointed the Lakers didn't trade for the point guard at this year's trade deadline, and he'll surely be disheartened once more if L.A. doesn't make a push to acquire a big-name player like Rondo this summer.
Rondo is inevitably going to be the most polarizing player available this summer, as the Mavericks declined after acquiring him, and he's quite clearly past his prime, failing to ever recover to peak form after his knee injuries years ago. But he also has quite the pedigree and plenty of upside, particularly if he's in a marquee destination with a constant spotlight.
Prediction: Hello, Los Angeles Lakers.
Note: All stats, unless otherwise indicated, come from Basketball-Reference.com. All salary information comes from ShamSports.com.
