The Mookie Show: What Red Sox Fans Should Expect from Mookie Betts in 2015

Boston is quickly falling in love with Mookie Betts. 

The diminutive 22-year-old outfielder set social media abuzz this week after a remarkable performance against the Washington Nationals on Monday afternoon. In the game’s first four innings, Betts robbed Bryce Harper of a home run, stole two bases (in one play) and smacked a three-run home run over the Green Monster. 

Betts debuted in the majors last June, and his performance was one of the lone highlights of Boston’s disappointing 2014 season. And his efforts on Monday reminded Boston fans—and the MLB—that the Red Sox may have found a future superstar. 

Bleacher Report’s Mike Rosenbaum covered this earlier in the week, but there’s good reason to believe Betts is no fluke. For one thing, he has excelled at literally every level of the game. Betts hit better than .500 in both his junior and senior year of high school before being drafted by Boston in 2011. 

Since then, he hasn’t looked back:

Year	AB	BA	Hits	2B	HR	OPS	SB
2013 (Greenville, Salem)	551	.314	145	36	15	.923	38
2014 (Portland, Pawtucket)	464	.346	138	30	11	.960	33
2014 (Boston Red Sox)	213	.291	55	12	5	.812	7

Betts has practically never not been a baseball star. Plus, he’s only 22—and he’s smart, as he demonstrated with his savvy baserunning against Washington on Monday:

He has the stats, the youth, the brains and the talent. Betts will almost certainly be a fixture in the MLB for a long, long time. 

But baseball season is long. And, apart from the unpredictable specter of injury, plenty of athletes have fizzled out after hot starts to their career.

Betts will not fizzle.

His speed and defense are unlikely to diminish, but his performance at the plate will ultimately determine his place in the game. Monday’s performance notwithstanding, his stats in 2015 are underwhelming; Betts is currently just 9-for-40, good for a .225 batting average. 

So, what can Red Sox fans expect this year? What are the best- and worst-case scenarios for Betts’ 2015 season?

Worst Case

Frankly, the worst-case scenario is that Betts finishes 2015 in the minors. The Red Sox have Rusney Castillo—a highly regarded Cuban signed for $72.5 million this offseason—waiting in the wings. And Boston’s lineup is extremely deep. 

So, if Betts fails to recreate his 2014 offensive performance, the Red Sox could justifiably demote him. A starting outfield of Castillo, Hanley Ramirez and Shane Victorino (or utility man Brock Holt, or even Allen Craig) may be more productive at the plate than a lineup including Betts. 

And the Red Sox are in no rush. Even without Betts, Boston will probably make the playoffs and compete for a title. Their lineup is arguably the league’s best. And Betts is only 22. If Red Sox management decides that Betts’ hitting would benefit from more minor-league seasoning, and if the team can contend without him, it’s not out of the question for Betts to spend time at Triple-A.

Best Case

Fortunately for Boston fans, the scenario described above is extremely unlikely. Betts brings speed and highlight-reel defense, and keeping him in the majors might do more for his long-term development than a seasoning stint in the minors. Either way, Boston’s lineup is deep enough to mask any struggles Betts might have at the plate, and his defense is worth keeping around:

And while there’s a chance that his hitting performance in 2014 was misleading, there’s an equally good (if not better) chance that his slow start to 2015 is anomalous instead. If Betts’ 2014 numbers are extrapolated for a full season, here’s what you get:

Year	BA	H	2B	HR	OPS	SB	WAR
2014 (Boston)	.291	55	12	5	.812	7	2.1
2015 (Extrapolated)	.291	171	37	16	.812	22	6.5

If Betts plays a full season—or close to it—it seems virtually certain that he’ll steal between 20 and 30 bases and play solid outfield defense. And in a best-case scenario, he’ll hit .290 with an OPS over .800, he’ll knock over 15 home runs and he’ll finish with more than 170 hits. 

That would be a pretty good year for a 22-year-old outfielder. 

Likely?

Of course, neither of the outcomes described above is necessarily likely. The best-case scenario is closer to reality than the worst-case, however, and Red Sox fans should stay excited. I suspect Betts’ batting average, OPS and WAR to dip slightly from last year; I’ll predict him to finish at about .280/.780/5.5, respectively. 

But his steal totals should improve as he becomes familiar with professional pitchers and catchers. He could easily steal 30 bases (he’s on track for more than 60, but that’s probably where extrapolation loses its value). And 170 hits is not far off. 

As I said, Betts’ defense and speed are unlikely to decline in the near future. And the “likely” outcome I’ve described above, while perhaps not the best-case scenario, is still one that should keep Boston fans drooling. Outfielders as young as Betts who hit .280, play good defense and steal bases are not easy to find.

In all likelihood, the Red Sox have found a future star. He will be an important cog in their lineup this year, and Sox fans should hope the team's management can sign him to a long-term deal in the future.