2015 NBA Free Agents: List of Top Available Players This Offseason
With the NBA’s regular season drawing to a close, the offseason immediately looms for 14 of the league’s 30 teams, and that means those franchises and their fans are ready to start asking: Who are this year’s best available free agents?
To answer that, we have to define the word “available” because it doesn’t mean the same thing across the board. For various reasons, the true viability of some players changing teams is between unlikely and just not happening.
Whether it’s not in their best interest financially, they’re just happy where they’re at or they’re restricted free agents, many players are likely to stay put. But others are chomping at the bit for the chance to leave.
Here are the top players in free agency, ranked by position, according to their expected level of play over the next four seasons, along with a discussion of the likelihood they go somewhere.
PG 4: Rajon Rondo (Unrestricted)
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Rajon Rondo’s best years appear to be behind him. More critically, the upward slope of his increasing stubbornness seems to have intersected with that of his diminishing skills.
So at what point is he more trouble than he’s worth? The Dallas Mavericks are probably questioning that now and whether it was worth trading for him.
Not only are the results he's had in Dallas discouraging from a statistical standpoint (9.3 points, 6.5 assists), but it's been bad for chemistry. Per NBA.com/Stats, before trading for Rondo, the offense was scoring a blistering 113.6 points per 100 possessions. Afterward, it plummeted to 104.0.
And, making matters even worse, it's only 101.4 with Rondo on the court.
Rondo had a spat with Rick Carlisle, and it wasn’t his first run-in with one of his coaches.
Someone will offer Rondo something, but he’s not the daily triple-double threat he once was. And he might bring more grief than success. There’s reason to believe his career with the Mavericks will be short-lived.
PG 3: Reggie Jackson (Restricted)
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Reggie Jackson is a pending restricted free agent whom the Detroit Pistons traded for at the deadline. During his stint in the Motor City, he is averaging 17.4 points, 9.1 assists and 4.7 rebounds. Per Basketball-Reference.com, his player efficiency rating is 19.1.
Typically, when you move for a guy at the trade deadline, he’s playing well and you can assure yourself of keeping him, you do. But there are reasons to postulate a change could happen, per Steve Kyler of Basketball Insiders:
"The Reggie Jackson situation is a tough one to read. Since Greg Monroe went down to knee injury, Jackson has been on fire, logging double-double type numbers. The problem is the Pistons have regressed a lot since acquiring Jackson, making his future in Detroit murky at best. Sources close to the process say the team is still very committed to keeping Jackson long-term and does plan on making a sizable free agent offer. Jackson will be a restricted free agent so the Pistons can control the process in some ways, but there is a sense that there are limits to how far the Pistons will go in a new contract, which opens the door for another team if they want to test the Pistons’ resolve.
"
There are teams out there with tons of money to spend (the New York Knicks and Los Angeles Lakers, for example) whom I speculate could drop a max offer on Jackson. Should that happen, it’s feasible that he moves. But not for much less.
PG 2: Goran Dragic (Player Option)
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Goran Dragic isn’t having the great season he had last year when he won the Most Improved Player award. But, he’s not doing badly, averaging 16.3 points on 57.7 percent true shooting and 4.5 assists. Whether those numbers are going to justify the type of contract he might get is a big question.
Per Marc Stein of ESPN, “Sources say L.A. plans to chase Dragic this summer anyway with an aggressive four-year offer that would be valued as high as an estimated $80 million if it approaches max-contract territory.”
Ramona Shelburne, senior writer for ESPN, tweeted after the Miami Heat traded to acquire Dragic, “The Heat would not have done this trade for Dragic without feeling good that he re-signs this summer. Expectation is he'll get a five-year max.”
There could be a bidding war coming up this summer over Dragic’s services, and whoever wins will probably lose in the long run. I just don’t see four years of max-contract value coming out of Dragic. But it’s a seller’s market, and he’s likely to prosper from it.
PG 1: Brandon Knight (Restricted)
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Brandon Knight won’t cost as much as Dragic, but he will probably provide better play over the next four seasons, which is why, even though the Phoenix Suns fell off the map after the trade deadline, they made the right moves.
On Feb. 19, the Suns traded away Isaiah Thomas to the Boston Celtics and Dragic to the Heat in two separate three-team deals, which brought back Knight as the principal.
Knight has only played 11 games in Phoenix because of injuries, but it’s likely the team has every intention of keeping him around. Knight averaged 17.0 points and 5.2 assists on the season and is likely to command a max(ish) offer somewhere.
For Knight, that probably means something starting around $16-17 million per year. The Suns will have the chance to match, since they own his restricted free agency rights. And I expect they will.
They didn't go through that whole point guard shuffle to let him walk.
SG 4: Dwyane Wade (Player Option)
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Dwyane Wade is the greatest player on this list not named LeBron James. But his future in the league is a massive question mark. He’s averaged 21.5 points, 4.8 assists and 3.5 boards this season. But he’s also missed 19 games. Last season, he missed 29.
His PER fell each of the last three seasons. This year it’s 21.4, the lowest it’s been since he was a rookie. He is clearly on the downside of his presumably Hall of Fame career.
I don’t see Wade opting out this year. If he does, I don’t see him leaving Miami. I don’t see him wanting to. And I don’t see Miami wanting him to. If he does, it will be to adjust his paycheck, not leave.
In short, he’s going to retire in Miami. We may only see flashes of his greatness (see what I did there?), but we’ll never seem in another uniform, which is how it should be.
SG 3: Arron Afflalo (Player Option)
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Arron Afflalo is the shakiest shooting guard on this list. When the Portland Trail Blazers traded for him, they might have saved his career. In Denver, he was shooting just 33.7 percent from deep. In Portland, he’s back up to 40.0 percent, which is about where he’s been the last seven years.
He is a solid three-and-D specialist and should be available for a reasonable price. The only thing is, with Afflalo, the fit has to be right, as evidenced by his jump in percentages from Denver to Portland.
If the Hawks lost DeMarre Carroll, for example, he’d be perfect for them. His talents could be optimized, which would make a ton of sense for both parties (not that there are rumors to that regard; it just makes sense).
I doubt he stays in Portland, where he’d revert to a bench role once Wesley Matthews comes back next season.
SG 2: Monta Ellis (Player Option)
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Monta Ellis may be wearing out his welcome with the Dallas Mavericks in his second season with the club. Tim McMahon of ESPNDallas.com wrote in March: "Regardless of whether anyone will admit it on the record, Ellis is a big part of that problem. Folks in the Mavs organization have been fretting for weeks about the impact Ellis’ moodiness has on the team’s soul."
That doesn’t sound good for the prospects of Ellis returning next year.
An example of that moodiness came against the Denver Nuggets when Raymond Felton led the Mavs to a comeback victory, and Ellis pouted on the end of the bench.
Mark Cuban wrote that off as “bad optics” but normal, according to Eddie Sefko of The Dallas Morning News. OK, I guess that’s what we’re calling it nowadays.
I asked McMahon what he thought would happen with the Rondo/Ellis dynamic, and which—or either—would come back. His thoughts, “Neither more likely than both. Monta more likely than Rondo.”
So there will probably be some shake-up in Dallas next year, but Rondo is the more likely departure than Ellis.
SG 1: Jimmy Butler (Restricted)
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Jimmy Butler is, shockingly, the best shooting guard on the board, which isn’t what anyone expected when the season started. I mean no one predicted that he would average 20 points per game this year.
Outside of James Harden and possibly Klay Thompson, he’s the best offensive shooting guard in the league. His 21.2 PER is third at the position, trailing only Harden and Wade, per RealGM.com. And unlike Wade, Butler’s best years are ahead of him.
That’s not bad for a player who already has a Second Team All-Defensive Team on his record.
Butler turned down an extension, “betting on himself” earlier this season. Now it looks like he’s going to cash in on that bet. He’ll likely get a max-contract offer from someone. If it’s not from the Bulls initially, it will come from someone else.
But if that happens, the Bulls are going to match it. Butler’s two-way play isn’t going to leave the Windy City.
SF 4: Luol Deng (Player Option)
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Luol Deng’s career didn’t get torpedoed; it got Thibodeaued. In some ways, the best and worst of his years came under the tutelage of the hard-driving coach of the Chicago Bulls.
Deng made the All-Star Game twice, but he paid a heavy price, leading the league in minutes during 2010-11 and 2011-12. That was a hard time too, with Deng locking down the defense on the wings and being an essential part of the offense as well.
The grueling days in Chicago have brought about a premature demise to his career. As hard as it is to believe, he doesn’t turn 30 until April 16, but it feels like he’s older than that.
Even he doesn’t seem to know yet what his plans are, he told Jason Lieser of the Palm Beach Post:
"We’re talking about it early; I’m not thinking about it yet. We could go to Philly and win and the other teams lose and I’m here talking to you about opting in or opting out, then all of a sudden I’ve gotta get my mind right for the Atlanta series. I really don’t want to go there yet. When the season’s over and I sit down and relax, I can start thinking about that stuff.
"
He’s not likely to get more money elsewhere, but he might be better-served coming off the bench in a sixth-man role in terms of his career viability. But he’s going to have to take a pay cut to do that.
So much is up in the air with the Heat this summer that it’s anyone’s guess what happens.
SF 3: Draymond Green (Restricted)
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Draymond Green is one of the more interesting restricted free agents. There’s a good chance he is named the Defensive Player of the Year. A lot of his versatility and ability to defend any position makes the Golden State Warriors' switches work so well.
He’s a key cog to their success on both ends.
However, according to Spotrac.com, the Warriors are already at $82.7 million next season, which is over the expected $81 million tax threshold, per Larry Coon. Another $15 million is going to cost them a lot more than $15 million.
And that raises the question, how much is a guy who's giving you 11.3 points and 8.3 rebounds per game really worth? And that’s a lot harder to answer because Green’s worth isn’t really established by the numbers. He might be the best role player in the NBA. Can he even be a max-contract role player?
As Jesse Blancarte writes for Basketball Insiders, that “role” is a big one:
"In his current role, Green does all the little things that helps a team win games, such as guarding multiple positions, effectively switching on defense, setting hard screens for Stephen Curry, fighting for loose balls, challenging shots at the rim and knocking down open three-pointers. In addition, Green is still young, he is still relatively inexperienced (meaning he has a lot of room to keep improving), and he compares fairly well statistically to the other top small forwards in the league who all are making $14 million a season or more. And perhaps most importantly, Green is a passionate player that is currently the heart and soul of the Warriors and could bring that passion and work ethic to another team.
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If someone thinks he’s worth it and offers Green max money, the Warriors may reluctantly let him go. Or they may try to find someone to eat David Lee’s contract and part with a pick to do it.
SF 2: Kawhi Leonard (Restricted)
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Kawhi Leonard is the reigning Finals MVP. He’s the best wing defender in the NBA. His defensive real plus-minus is the second-best of any player in the league, per ESPN.com.
There are only two players in the NBA who have an offensive real plus-minus and DRPM over 3.0: Leonard (3.34/5.01) and Anthony Davis (3.78/3.74). In short, Leonard has a strong statistical argument for being the best two-way player in the league.
In fact, Stephen Curry is the only player with a total RPM higher than Leonard.
While he had various injuries holding him back at the start of the season, he’s averaged 17.3 points on 49.3 percent shooting and 36.6 percent from three in the Spurs' very egalitarian system over his last 41 games.
So what I’m driving at here is he’s not going anywhere.
SF 1: LeBron James (Player Option)
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The list of reasons that LeBron James isn’t going anywhere:
- He’s not going to commit career suicide.
- He has no financial incentive to turn down his option, as he’s better off inking a new deal after the new TV deal kicks in.
- He’s not going to commit career suicide.
- He really does want to win a title with the Cleveland Cavaliers.
- He’s not going to commit career suicide.
- His family is at home in Cleveland.
And, oh yeah, he’s not going to commit career suicide.
James doesn’t even become a free agent, much less leave. He’s here as a technicality only.
PF 4: David West (Player Option)
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David West is such a part of the Indiana Pacers' soul, it’s hard to imagine them letting him go or him wanting to go.
In February, long before the Indiana Pacers miraculously hoisted themselves into the playoff hunt, West told Ethan Skolnick of Bleacher Report:
"I mean, we've got grown men in this locker room. We don't have any kids. We don't have guys that are knuckleheads or anything like that. We've got guys who are professional. We've got young guys who are trying to learn how to be professionals. We've got a good mix. When you have those components, that can get you through some tough times. We all like each other. And we've got a grown-man group, so that definitely helps.
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West has mentored this team since his arrival in 2011-12. He's arguably the biggest reason they're "grown men" and not "knuckleheads." They’re as much his team as they are Roy Hibbert’s or Paul George’s.
Add that to Larry Bird telling play-by-play announcer Scott Agness, “I wanted to keep our group together because in the summer, if David and Roy opt out, we're back to zero, really,” and it’s easy to conclude that West isn’t going anywhere.
PF 3: Paul Millsap (Unrestricted)
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Paul Millsap is in that "will he stay or will he go territory" with good arguments both ways.
On the “stay” side, the Hawks have a great team, and a player in his 30s would probably prefer to be contending for a title versus being on a rebuilding project.
On the “go” side, Millsap has never had the big payday. He’s never had an eight-figure income, and he’s made “only” $53.1 million in his career. So, if the Knicks or Lakers come calling with a massive deal starting around $18 million, he may well be tempted to leave.
Start adding all the elements together. The truly available free agents who might actually go somewhere are limited. Both big-city franchises are experiencing historically bad seasons and will be under the gun to do something. They both have a ton of money to spend.
And if all that happens, Atlanta may prefer to let them duke it out. There’s a chance he stays in Atlanta, but he could just as easily bolt for a contract you can’t say “no” to. It may all depend on what the Hawks do in the postseason.
PF 2: Kevin Love (Player Option)
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Kevin Love’s numbers have gone thud in Cleveland. He went from 26.1 points and 12.5 boards his last year in Minnesota to 16.3 and 9.8 with the Cavaliers. His PER dropped from 29.9 to 18.8.
It’s not a surprise that they fell off, but that they fell off so sharply. He’s been repeatedly benched in the fourth quarter.
Love has pushed away rumors about his free agency, but there’s room for questions as to whether he’ll stick around. He recently talked to Ananth Pandian of CBS Sports about the rumors:
"Obviously the fact that I'm coming up on free agency and with any of the top players that are going to be free agents, there always is going to be that kind of talk. This is a place where I don't necessarily dominate the ball but I am still often effective and able to really help this team when I'm out there on the floor. For me, I am excited to be going to my first playoffs. I want to see how far that gets me.
"
If the Cavaliers have a disappointing playoffs, and/or Love is on the bench if/when they go down, it might be enough to push him out.
And in a bit of an underreported story, Steve Kyler of Basketball Insiders writes, “The Celtics have a ton of cash and are geared up to use it. Target No. 1 is Kevin Love. Target No. 2 is Greg Monroe.”
So, Love could be sitting there asking himself, "Do you want to be the third wheel and underappreciated on a contender in Cleveland, or the centerpiece of a team on the rise in Boston?"
If the Cavs crash in the playoffs and the Celtics offer Love a max contract and top billing, it wouldn’t be a shock if he bolted.
PF 1: LaMarcus Aldridge (Unrestricted)
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Let’s briefly review the facts:
- LaMarcus Aldridge can get the most money if he stays with the Portland Trail Blazers since he qualifies for the Bird exception.
- Aldridge has a superstar teammate in Damian Lillard.
- Aldridge is surrounded by the perfect role players in guys like Robin Lopez and Wesley Matthews.
- Aldridge has a great relationship with his head coach, Terry Stotts.
Aldridge has the type of situation that stars take less money to get into, not get out of. Who doesn’t want a chance to contend while surrounded with ideal teammates and the perfect coach?
And Aldridge doesn’t even have to take less money! So, in summary: He’s not going anywhere.
C4: Greg Monroe (Player Option)
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Greg Monroe is gone. Of all the free agents on this list, if there’s anyone who is going to be playing with a different team next year, it’s Monroe.
First, if the Detroit Pistons really wanted him, they would have locked him up last summer, rather than let him play for the qualifying offer. So that’s already pretty telling.
Then Frank Isola of the New York Daily News reports: "Maybe the worst kept secret in the NBA is that Phil Jackson plans to pursue Detroit Pistons forward Greg Monroe in free agency this summer. In fact, one league executive called it 'about as close to a done deal as you can get.'"
Of course, Monroe vehemently denied the claim, but does it really matter?
Because, again, if Detroit wanted this done, it would have already done it. He’ll be the biggest free-agent target to actually change teams, so it’s going to be for max money. Either the Knicks or the Lakers will pay Monroe a max contract. The other will try for Millsap and may or may not strike out.
It’s really that simple.
C3: DeAndre Jordan (Unrestricted)
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DeAndre Jordan is a great rebounder and enormously efficient scorer at the rim. Being that he “anchors” an essentially average defense (ranked 15th) that gets better when he sits down (by 1.3 points per 100 possessions), the whole Defensive Player of the Year thing might be overhyped.
But it’s clear that the Clippers don’t think so, and they aren’t going to let their version of DPOY just walk away for nothing.
Whether you agree that Jordan should be in the running for the postseason award, there’s no denying he’s an important part of what the Clippers do on both ends of the court.
I’m not sure that his massive rebounding and block numbers transfer easily to another team. I don’t know how much anyone would offer him. None of it will matter. He’s staying with the Clippers for a sizable chunk of cash, and they’ll pay him before he explores the market.
C2: Brook Lopez (Player Option)
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Is Brook Lopez going to opt out of his contract with the Brooklyn Nets and test free agency?
Zach Lowe of Grantland reports, “Most execs expect Lopez to opt out and enter free agency after rampaging across the league over the last month.”
But I’m not convinced. Is a month of great play enough to offset what has been a hugely disappointing contract?
Since the 2011-12 season, Lopez has played 167 games and missed 145 due to injuries. While he’s played in 71 this year, 28 of them have come off the bench. And do you really want a max-contract player who is coming off the bench? And, if he’s not coming off the bench, can he play a full season or close to it?
He’s averaging 19.9 points on 52.6 percent shooting and 9.2 boards since the All-Star break. So the quality is there. It's just an issue of quantity.
Can a couple of months of good play offset four years of injury issues? Can Lopez get more money to switch teams by opting out of his current max contract? Can we just assume that signing an injury prone-player to a max contract just screams Knicks?
The answer to all of these questions is maybe. Expect Lopez to put out feelers and see if there’s interest. If there’s not enough to give him a max offer, expect him to play out his last year in Brooklyn. Another season of playing starter's minutes and staying healthy would increase his value.
He'd make a lot more in the much friendlier free-agent waters in 2016.
C1: Marc Gasol (Unrestricted)
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Marc Gasol is the best center in the NBA right now. That's mainly because he’s the one guy you don’t look at any aspect of his game and go “Yech!”
Defense, scoring, passing, rebounding, leadership—he does it all decently to very well.
Joakim Noah can't score. Jordan can't score away from the rim. DeMarcus Cousins has maturity issues. Roy Hibbert can't score or rebound. Al Jefferson can't defend on an elite level. You go down the list, and they all have a glaring weakness.
If there’s an apparent flaw with Gasol, it would be cleaning the glass. But the fact his rebounding percentage jumps when Zach Randolph sits, per NBA.com, suggests he’s just deferring the uncontested misses to his teammate.
While he's the loftiest dream of many a general manager who is looking to land a big name, Gasol is not going anywhere. He’s too entrenched with the Memphis Grizzlies. The team, player and city all love one another. He’s going to get a max offer to stay, and he’s going to happily take it.
Advanced stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
