2015 NBA Rookie Ladder: Last-Chance Look at Regular-Season Progress
At some point during this season, the NBA's rookie wall was replaced with a trampoline.
Even with three of the top seven picks on the shelf—Joel Embiid out all year after foot surgery, Julius Randle sidelined since opening night with a broken leg, Jabari Parker gone since December with a torn ACL—this batch of first-timers has powered toward the completion of its debut campaign.
Andrew Wiggins, long ago cemented as the top-scoring freshman, continues lighting the lamp with regularity. Elfrid Payton has been an assist machine and a constant presence on the glass. Nerlens Noel remains the top defensive power in this class, and Nikola Mirotic is still doing damage in a crowded Chicago Bulls frontcourt.
Those four sat atop our last rookie ladder, and that part of the conversation hasn't changed. But that just means it's still crowded near the top rung and deep behind it.
We're not looking to gauge the careers sitting in front of these freshman phenoms. Rather, we're ranking what they've done this season and closely examining their recent contributions.
A tight-knit race down the stretch has sent these first-year ballers barreling toward a photo finish.
10. Bojan Bogdanovic, SG, Brooklyn Nets
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An up-and-down rookie year for Bojan Bogdanovic is ending on a high note. He'll exit his roller-coaster ride from starter to seldom-used reserve as a key contributor off Lionel Hollins' bench.
The Brooklyn Nets' scoring swingman, who didn't log a minute in three consecutive February games, has shot his way back into the rotation.
Over his last 14 games, Bogdanovic has put up 10.9 points per game, while hitting 48.4 percent of his field-goal attempts and 43.8 percent of his three-point tries.
Scoring—more specifically, shooting—is key to his on-court survival. He doesn't bring much else to the offensive end, and his average-at-best athleticism limits what he can do on the opposite side.
But when his shots are falling, he can play a major part in opening up driving lanes or clearing congestion around the basket. And, like any good role player, the 25-year-old already understands the importance of deflecting credit for his individual production.
"I am more involved in the offense," he said, per Mitch Abramson of the New York Daily News. "The teammates are starting to look for me. And that's the only [reason] why I start to play better."
Bogdanovic gave that quote after a brilliant 21-point effort, during which he drilled all eight of his field-goal attempts. How's that for humility?
He might not have the highest ceiling, but his above-average basement is good enough to get him on this list.
9. Jusuf Nurkic, C, Denver Nuggets
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The Denver Nuggets are obviously sold on rookie Jusuf Nurkic's potential. At the trade deadline, Grantland's Zach Lowe heard from several league sources that the blossoming big man was Denver's "only true untouchable."
Plenty has changed since, none of which has helped the throwback bruiser.
Nurkic missed more than two weeks with an injury problem, and the lottery-bound Nuggets have taken the cautious route since his return.
Denver has also since handed the coaching reins over to Melvin Hunt, although his interim status has made his tenure a continuous audition for the permanent position. As such, he's leaning heavily on his veterans and limiting the exposure of young Nuggets like Nurkic.
The Bosnian banger has averaged just 16.2 minutes over his last 16 games, all but four of which he began on the bench. He's logged single-digit minutes in four of those contests, and ongoing foul troubles (eight outings with four or more during this stretch) haven't helped.
Still, his per-36-minute marks peg him as a nightly double-double threat, and he's a pest at the defensive end. His recent decline hurts, but it didn't do enough damage to knock him off this ladder.
8. Rodney Hood, SG, Utah Jazz
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Few, if any, NBA freshmen have helped themselves more down the stretch than Utah Jazz scoring swingman Rodney Hood. The only thing keeping him from a higher spot here is the fact that he needed such a big lift to recover from a quiet, injury-riddled first half.
Several losing bouts with the injury bug—mostly over various foot ailments—held him out of 29 of Utah's first 53 games. All of that starting and stopping prevented the sharpshooter from finding his rhythm, and he owned a grisly .338/.337/.692 shooting slash at the end of February.
But with his health battles (mostly) behind him, he's finally had the opportunity to tap into his deep bag of basketball tricks. When he doesn't have to worry about his body, opponents have to scramble to keep his potent scoring in check.
On March 10, he scored a career-high 17 points. He's posted three new personal bests in his 15 outings since, topping 17 points seven different times. During this scorching 15-game stretch, he's putting up 14.3 points a night while converting 48.8 percent of his field-goal attempts and 38.5 percent of his long-range looks.
"Rodney is a special player," Jazz forward Trevor Booker said, per Aaron Falk of The Salt Lake Tribune. "And to think he's only a rookie and he'll only get better, that's scary."
Had Hood avoided his injury issues, it is scary to think where he might have ranked.
7. Zach LaVine, PG, Minnesota Timberwolves
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Zach LaVine plays with the subtlety of Russell Westbrook's wardrobe. When the Minnesota Timberwolves rookie floor general makes a play, it draws a deafening response from hoop heads across the globe.
As a slam-dunk artist, LaVine is head and shoulders above his competition. (Sometimes, he's even head above the rim.)
But the most encouraging part of his stretch run has nothing to do with jaw-dropping highlights or physics-defying feats of elite athleticism. He's proving himself capable of doing more than keeping the poster-printing business alive.
Over his last 17 games, he's averaged 18.7 points, 4.9 assists and 4.9 rebounds. For context, only seven players have put up at least 18 points, 4.5 assists and 4.5 boards this season. Some might knock LaVine for tallying volume stats on a bad team, but they have to do it with the knowledge that his production is special.
Besides, these are more than raw numbers. They're efficient ones too.
During this scorching run, LaVine is shooting 44 percent from the field and 40.3 percent from distance. Both are substantial improvements from his season averages of 42.4 and 34.6, respectively.
Consistency will be his greatest challenge going forward, and his overall lack of it keeps him from climbing any higher.
6. Marcus Smart, PG, Boston Celtics
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The scoring and shooting columns on Boston Celtics rookie Marcus Smart's stat sheet read with the simplicity of a medical dictionary.
His 36.7 field-goal percentage seemingly speaks for itself.
Remember when the entire basketball world killed Kobe Bryant for his inaccuracy, then learned he'd basically played the entire season with a bad shooting shoulder? Well, pundits made all of that fuss because Bryant hit only 37.3 percent of his shots.
Smart sitting south of that number is obviously troubling, but there might be a reason it's this low. He has appeared intent to quiet the criticisms of his perimeter game. Over 57 percent of his field-goal attempts come from beyond the arc, where he owns a forgettable 33.5 percent conversion rate.
He's trying to rid himself of a weakness, and it's clearly a work in progress.
It's also only a portion of what he brings inside the lines.
Among rookies, Smart ranks third in steals and fifth in assists. He's 12th in rebounds and third among first-year guards. And his best work comes at the defensive end, where impact is still hard to quantify.
"He's a nightmare on defense," wrote Celtics Hub's Tom Westerholm. "He's strong, and he uses that strength to contain players driving against him and keep them out of the paint."
Smart also starts for a playoff-bound team, a claim that no other player on this list can make.
5. Jordan Clarkson, PG, Los Angeles Lakers
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Can we get a quick round of applause for the NBA's analytical evolution? If we were still stuck in basketball's flat-Earth period of talent evaluation, Jordan Clarkson would take some heat for not being a traditional, pass-first point guard.
But that label no longer holds weight in today's position-less, pace-and-space game. As long as someone can play—which Clarkson clearly can—teams will find a way to maximize his impact.
The Los Angeles Lakers have already done that with the obvious steal of last summer's draft. They gave Clarkson a starting gig in late January, and he has piled up the production since.
Over his last 13 games, he's notched 20.2 points on 49 percent shooting, 6.5 assists and 4.8 rebounds. To give those stats some substance, consider this: That's a higher scoring average than Chris Paul, a better shooting percentage than Stephen Curry, more assists than Damian Lillard and better work on the boards than John Wall.
"He's done a hell of a job learning our offense and really learning what he can do on both ends of the floor,” Lakers coach Byron Scott said of Clarkson, per Lakers.com's Mike Trudell. "Each week he's added a little something extra. His work ethic is fantastic; he's a guy that wants to be good, and he works his butt off."
Clarkson, the 46th pick last summer, has a good chance to earn All-Rookie first-team honors. If the Lakers had removed his leash earlier this season, he might have already had the selection in the bag.
4. Nikola Mirotic, PF,Chicago Bulls
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April hasn't been the kindest month to Chicago Bulls stretch forward Nikola Mirotic.
Even after blitzing the Brooklyn Nets for 26 points and six triples in Chicago's 113-86 win Monday, the rookie is only averaging 12 points on 35.3 percent shooting in seven April outings. Before that outburst, he'd gone six straight games without shooting above 42.9 percent from the field and shot 30 percent or worse in four of those contests.
The 24-year-old needs his shots to fall in order to open up the rest of his game. When teams have to chase him off the perimeter, he has an effective pump fake to shed his defender and the ball skills to make plays for himself or his teammates off the dribble.
His scoring threat—he's had 11 games with at least 23 points—has kept him relevant in a frontcourt rotation that includes Pau Gasol, Joakim Noah and Taj Gibson. Chicago getting back to full strength has hurt Mirotic's playing time a bit, but the 23rd pick of the 2011 draft has proved well worth the wait.
"Mirotic turned into one of the biggest reasons Chicago held its ground despite a series of injuries," wrote NBA.com's Scott Howard-Cooper.
If Mirotic had the same opportunities as the three players in front of him, he wouldn't be sitting this low on the list. But it's hard to see that as a bad thing when he'll be gaining playoff experience, while that trio gets an early start on its summer vacation.
3. Elfrid Payton, PG, Orlando Magic
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Good floor game, impressive eye for passing and fantastic follicles. That's the recipe for Orlando Magic freshman floor general Elfrid Payton's success.
Scoring has been a struggle (9.0 points per game), and it could remain that way as long as his perimeter problems persist (11-of-41 from three on the season). But good luck finding another area of concern on his resume.
He leads all rookies in assists (6.5), ranks second in steals (1.7) and sits tied for eighth in rebounds (4.3). His 2.65 assist-to-turnover ratio checks in at 14th overall, ahead of the likes of John Wall, Jeff Teague, Stephen Curry and Tony Parker.
Defensively, Payton has harassed opposing point guards with his 6'4" frame and 6'8" wingspan (per DraftExpress).
"On more nights than not, Payton looks like an eight-year veteran, understanding angles and reacting to defensive rotations with systematic familiarity," wrote Michael Pina of Fox Sports and Bleacher Report.
Payton's shooting problems aren't going away. After finishing an encouraging 45.8 percent of his field-goal chances in March, he's converting just 41.7 percent in April. Until he demands some attention from distance, he'll be left attacking jam-packed paints.
But even with that weakness, he's been one of the best rookies—appropriately a hair back of the pair sitting in front of him.
2. Nerlens Noel, C, Philadelphia 76ers
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It's a nightmarish thought for NBA bigs, and it seems like it's coming to fruition: Defensive dynamo Nerlens Noel is extending his impact to both ends of the floor.
His defense, in case you've been (understandably) avoiding the Philadelphia 76ers this season, has been phenomenal.
For those who prefer their defensive analysis in traditional stats, Noel is set to join David Robinson as the only NBA rookies to ever average at least 1.5 blocks and 1.5 steals. Noel, whose status for the season finale is up in the air thanks to a sprained ankle, is putting up 1.9 and 1.8, respectively. He's also tracking down 8.1 rebounds a night, two more than the next-closest rookie (Nurkic, 6.1).
Digging deeper only enhances Noel's defensive dominance. Among the 59 players facing at least six shots at the rim per game, he ranks seventh with a 45.4 field-goal percentage against. The Sixers surrender 4.1 fewer points per 100 possessions when he plays.
Lately, Noel has started wreaking havoc offensively as well. Over his last 15 games, he's averaging 14.3 points on 51.5 percent shooting. His season marks sit at 9.9 and 46.2, respectively.
"I compare him to Dwight [Howard], right now," Sixers guard Jason Richardson said, per Keith Pompey of the Philadelphia Inquirer. "Dwight came in so raw, came in as a defender, rebounder, blocking shots. And as you see right now, [Noel's] blossoming on the offensive end."
Noel is closing the gap in the rookie race. But it's not quite enough to overtake the front-running and still-climbing Andrew Wiggins.
1. Andrew Wiggins, SF, Minnesota Timberwolves
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Andrew Wiggins had his athleticism, defense and drool-worthy upside to thank for being selected first overall last summer. But his offense was supposed to be the developmental challenge for his NBA employer.
He never received that memo.
Wiggins has scored a rookie-best 1,364 points this season. No one else from this class has more than 822 (Mirotic). As impossible as this might sound, the gap between Wiggins and the rest is widening.
He's put up 23.3 points per game in the month of April. Only six players in the entire league have averaged more—five if you don't count Rudy Gay's one-game cameo. Wiggins is also stuffing his stat sheet with 6.0 rebounds, 4.1 assists and 1.0 steals this month.
"No other rookie has had to deal with more expectation, responsibility or nightly pressure to produce than Andrew Wiggins," wrote Michael Lee of The Washington Post. "The No. 1 pick has not only handled it, but he's gotten better as the season progressed."
Wiggins' shooting percentages aren't great (43.6 on field goals, 31.5 from three), but he's largely been the focal point of an undermanned Minnesota Timberwolves attack. The fact that he's still been able to produce through the extra defensive attention solidifies his place at the head of this year's rookie table.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of NBA.com and Basketball-Reference.com.
