Best- and Worst-Case Scenarios for the Oakland Raiders' Top 3 Picks
A ton of buzz surrounds the Oakland Raiders No. 4 overall pick, especially with the possibility of trading out of the spot. However, there are scenarios that should make Oakland Raiders fans cringe and others that’ll help them envision a foreseeable playoff push.
When examining the selections for the fourth overall pick, the names Leonard Williams, Amari Cooper and Kevin White come to mind, but what’s best for the Raiders? What’s the worst that could possibly happen?
We’ll examine some of these outcomes focusing on the top three picks of the draft. These scenarios have been weighed based on a player’s immediate impact and the potential to become a long-term contributor.
Best-Case Scenario Round 1: Leonard Williams
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Leonard Williams is a versatile three-down defensive lineman who will be an impact player for nearly a decade—and if he falls to the No. 4 spot, he should be headed to Oakland without a doubt.
There’s an increasing belief Marcus Mariota goes to the Tennessee Titans or a team willing to trade up for him. The Jacksonville Jaguars have their sights on pass-rushers Dante Fowler and Vic Beasley. This would allow the USC standout to drop into the Raiders’ lap.
This scenario is only slightly better than choosing the most complete wide receiver in Cooper.
Cooper is the best at his position and fills a need. Williams doesn’t fill a need; the Raiders are already stocked with Justin Ellis and Dan Williams at DT.
However, Williams would be a significant upgrade over Ellis. Secondly, the draft is deep enough to pick up some quality receivers in the second, third and even fourth rounds.
Finally, a transcendent defensive player impacts the game directly, whereas Cooper is dependent on quarterback play. QB pressure, run stopping and occupying double-teams to open gaps for linebackers are some of the ways Williams can affect his side of the ball. Cooper becomes a non-factor if Derek Carr plays poorly or in case of a less talented backup taking snaps.
Worst-Case Scenario Round 1: Shane Ray
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According to CBSSports.com, Shane Ray is the top-rated defensive end in this year’s draft class.
Typically, this is where teams generate QB pressure and sacks. Tweener linebackers also capable of rushing off the edge have diminished Ray's value at DE.
Prospects such as Fowler and Vic Beasley have surpassed Ray in draft stock as premier edge-rushers from the linebacker position.
When focusing on Ray’s productivity, he only has one impressive college season on his resume. He lacks the consistency needed to warrant a top-five pick. He’s still a work-in-progress, and it’s hard to project if he’ll even maintain a starting spot in the NFL, let alone become the dominant pass-rusher the Raiders need.
Best-Case Scenario Round 2: Devin Funchess
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Most of you will scratch your heads here, but following the best-case scenario of drafting Williams, Devin Funchess should be the second-round pick.
Again, the wide receiver class is deep. Rod Streater is on the mend. It's the perfect situation to take a chance on Funchess.
Yes, he’s your classic boom-or-bust-type player. However, he played two seasons as a tight end before producing a solid year as a WR on an offensively challenged Michigan team. Both positions are current needs for Oakland.
Former NFL player and Bleacher Report NFL Lead Writer Matt Bowen points out the boom in Funchess’ skill set:
"This is a player who can be used to beat a linebacker up the seam, run a comeback, run a fade, run a post, match up against a cornerback outside or work underneath—in the middle of the field—on third downs to move the sticks against zone coverages.
You want to reduce his alignment and get him matched up against a linebacker in a Cover 2 defense? That works. And so does the idea of Funchess running the fade route in the red zone.
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The Raiders would have the flexibility of using Funchess similar to Jimmy Graham’s role with the Saints. He can line up as a tight end or wide receiver on the line of scrimmage. Funchess’ versatility is unmatched in comparison to any other WR in the draft.
Teams that field a tweener tight end/wide receiver type are hard to game-plan against because of matchup issues. The New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints and Denver Broncos have all benefited from utilizing a player with a WR/TE skill set.
The Raiders also have the luxury of falling back James Jones' experience, and it seems as though Michael Crabtree will sign sometime Monday night, per ESPN reporter Bill Williamson via Twitter.
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Worst-Case Scenario Round 2: Dorial Green-Beckham
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Nothing is certain in the NFL, but I’m almost certain Dorial Green-Beckham drops into the second round despite his physical gifts.
One can argue his troubles won’t follow him to the NFL, but his transgressions led to being dismissed from the Missouri Tigers program. He hasn’t played a meaningful down of football since 2013.
General manager Reggie McKenzie wants to build a well-tempered, high-character team with an occasional chance on an exceptionally talented player.
Nonetheless, Green-Beckham isn’t the player you want to depend on as Carr’s top receiving weapon coming off an extended absence from football. He needs to get back into playing shape and adjust to the pro level while making better life choices for himself.
That’s a steep learning curve for anyone. Though it’s a second-round pick, it’s a lot to put on a prospect who’s well behind the curve.
Best-Case Scenario Round 3: Trey Flowers
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To recap, McKenzie picks up Williams and Funchess in the best-case scenarios. Now it’s time to address the defensive end position.
Trey Flowers doesn’t have numbers that jump off the page, but he was a three-year starter for the Arkansas Razorbacks. Flowers is also capable of pressuring the QB and thwarting the run.
The best aspect of Flowers' film tape is his display of versatility. He’s a 6’3”, 266-pound defensive lineman who can move inside in 3-4 schemes if he bulks up.
According to Rob Rang of CBSSports.com, he’s not a speedy pass-rusher but makes up for it in power and size:
"Flowers looks the part of an NFL defensive lineman with broad shoulders, long arms and good overall musculature. Average initial quickness for the position but generates good speed off the corner because of his long gait. Length and strength of his arms -- used effectively to discard blockers and lasso ball-carriers on the move ?- are his best traits.
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His ability to evade blocks will allow him to seal the edge on early downs as ball-carriers run away from Williams in the middle. Flowers recorded at least five sacks and 13 tackles for a loss in each year as a starter for Arkansas.
The former Arkansas Razorback is more polished and displayed more productivity at the position than Nate Orchard (Utah) and Danielle Hunter (LSU), both ranked ahead of him, per CBSSports.com.
Worst-Case Scenario Round 3: Mario Edwards Jr.
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Mario Edwards Jr. isn’t a poor pick per se, but he doesn’t fit with the Raiders schematically.
He's listed at 6’3”, 279 pounds, but unlike Flowers he provides very little QB pressure.
According to NFL.com’s Lance Zierlein, he’s also a liability on obvious rushing downs:
"WEAKNESSES
Ineffective as pass rusher. Played some stand-up defensive end in college and showed no explosiveness off snap. Play speed and fire go missing from pass rush. Hand usage is hit or miss and appears to lack power with hands.
Inconsistent getting arm extension, limiting ability to control and dominate a snap. Too involved in hand fighting and plays through a straw, losing sight of ball carrier.
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It seems as though Edwards could reach maximum potential playing inside as a 3-4 DE closer to the ball as opposed to playing on the outside in a 4-3 scheme.
If the Raiders want Williams in the first round, the DE of choice must have a decent arsenal of pass-rushing techniques, which Edwards lacks.
Do you have a list of players the Raiders should avoid? Which players should be considered best-case scenarios within the first three rounds? Tweet your thoughts and reactions to Maurice's Twitter account.
Player draft analysis provided by: NFL.com and CBSSports.com.
Advanced statistics provided by: Sports-Reference.com/cfb
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