Hater's Guide to the 2014-15 NBA MVP Race: Why Your Favorite Candidate Won't Win
We don't know who it'll be yet, but one of six viable candidates is going to wrestle the 2014-15 NBA MVP award away from a crowded field of contenders.
They've completely separated themselves from the pack statistically, so one of Stephen Curry, James Harden, LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Chris Paul or Russell Westbrook will give an acceptance speech in a matter of a few short weeks. The other five will be bummed.
That's a certainty. They have to give it to somebody.
Very Important Disclaimer: These six players have been beasts this season, and you'd have to work pretty hard to muster outrage if any of them were to take home MVP hardware.
As such, we're playing devil's advocate here. These are the arguments you'd make against each candidate if you were so inclined.
We're going to nitpick. We'll have to.
These guys have been that remarkable.
Stephen Curry, PG, Golden State Warriors
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Though it flies in the face of the conventional "best player on the best team" logic that has controlled plenty of past MVP votes, the case against Stephen Curry* is pretty basic.
His team is too good.
This works against the Golden State Warriors point guard in a couple of ways.
First, Curry's counting numbers take a hit whenever he spends time on the bench during blowout wins. Golden State is 65-15 this season and boasts one the league's all-time highest margins of victory.
So Curry's been sitting a lot.
Broderick Turner of the Los Angeles Times writes, "Curry hasn't played in the fourth quarter of 17 games because he and the Warriors have been so dominant this season."
Quick-and-dirty math: If Curry had logged just six fourth-quarter minutes in each in those 17 contests and maintained his per-minute scoring rate, he'd be averaging 25 points per game instead of 24. That may not seem like much, but it would move him from sixth on the scoring list to fourth, just a fraction behind James.
We value volume in most awards, and for the sake of uniformity, we should do the same here. Though Curry leads the league in win shares per 48 minutes, those blowout-induced fourth-quarter rests have resulted in a win share total that trails both Chris Paul and James Harden, albeit narrowly.
A related final point against Curry's MVP chances: The Warriors roster is so loaded with talent that you could argue Curry ends up looking better than he actually is. Never mind that the difference in the Dubs' net rating with Curry on the floor instead of off is plus-15.9 points per 100, according to NBA.com.
With Klay Thompson drawing defenders, a brilliant scheme that frees up everyone for open shots, and the likes of Andrew Bogut and Draymond Green leading an elite defense, it would be hard for Curry not to look good.
*Note: This one hurts. Curry should be the MVP.
James Harden, SG, Houston Rockets
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James Harden is probably the NBA's most unstoppable one-on-one force, and he's been propping up an otherwise uninspiring Houston Rockets offense by himself for most of the 2014-15 season.
Per Jenny Dial Creech of the Houston Chronicle, Harden believes that's sufficient. “I think I’ve done enough," he said when asked if he deserved this year's MVP award.
Not so fast, Beard.
The Rockets offense falls apart entirely without Harden's nonstop parade to the foul line propping it up. Nobody can argue that. But Houston's defense makes a leap when he sits as well, per NBA.com. To be clear, the team is still better with Harden on the floor than off, but an MVP can't just be marginally helpful.
He's got to be a team-altering, two-way force.
Though the cruel YouTube gag reels have mostly ceased, and though the narrative of this season holds that Harden has improved defensively, the fact is that he's still not a positive asset on that end. The obvious counter is that the team asks Harden to do so much offensively that it's not fair to expect brilliance on D.
Who cares about fair? This is the MVP we're talking about.
Harden is the best player on a good-but-not-great West team, and he's only dominant on one end of the floor. We need more from someone gunning for the league's highest individual honor, don't we?
LeBron James, SF, Cleveland Cavaliers
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Sure, we could pick out LeBron James' two-week vacation as a knock against him.
We could dock him for playing in a conference whose competition level sometimes looks only marginally stiffer than the kind you'd find in Thursday night pickup games at the Y.
Oh, you led the Cavs to a 30-point win over the Charlotte Hornets, LeBron? Congrats! Good luck against the Philadelphia 76ers tomorrow. I hear they have a few guys who played some D-II ball.
We could even note the benefits James derives from playing alongside Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love, both of whom draw plenty of defensive attention and generally make his life easier.
These are all good options.
You know what the real case against James is, though?
Boredom.
We've become accustomed to LBJ's play, and we take it for granted.
It's no big deal when he puts up 30 points, eight rebounds and nine assists because that's what he's supposed to do. That's what he's done for a decade.
It's not fair (none of these knocks are), but it's a huge reason King James won't take home his fifth MVP trophy.
Voter fatigue is a powerful thing.
Chris Paul, PG, Los Angeles Clippers
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Some of the same habit-driven ennui that will prevent LeBron James from winning the MVP also afflicts Chris Paul, per Eric Koreen of Toronto's National Post:
"Chris Paul leads the league in assists, is the engine of the NBA’s most efficient offence and might be the best defender at his position. He carried the Clippers when Blake Griffin was out with a staph infection. Is it his fault that we are used to him putting together seasons like this?
"
There's something else standing in CP3's way, though. Something difficult to explain.
All year long, Paul has been little more than a fringe contender for the award. The MVP discussion has focused mainly on Stephen Curry and James Harden, with Russell Westbrook's late run and the occasional "don't forget about LeBron" plea cropping up sporadically.
Paul, through no fault of his own, just hasn't been at the core of the MVP chatter.
And that's significant because it reflects broader fan sentiment and, much more importantly, what voters might be thinking. MVP momentum builds over the course of weeks and months, and voters simply don't make late, out-of-the-blue selections that don't confirm most people's expectations.
In other words, Paul won't win the MVP because absolutely nobody expects him to. Nobody is talking about how he should be the front-runner or about the grave injustice of his general exclusion from the Curry-Harden tier.
All anyone ever talks about with Paul is how he should be part of the conversation, which is basically code for "I'd never vote for him, but I think somebody else should consider doing it."
Nobody's going to do it, and despite a brilliant year, Paul won't finish higher than third.
Russell Westbrook, PG, Oklahoma City Thunder
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Russell Westbrook's advocates will brush off his inefficiency and over-the-top usage rate as necessary evils.
With Kevin Durant and Serge Ibaka both missing significant chunks of the year, the case for Westbrook is basically this: Russ had no choice but to play the second half of the season in a fevered haze—shooting like crazy, pushing the pace like crazy and generally, well, looking a little crazy.
The mask helped there.
It's probably not fair to say Westbrook wanted a chance to play like this, all alone with no legitimate reason to share the ball or operate within a system. But on some level, it almost feels like this is what he was built for.
Unfortunately, in an era where we celebrate systems and team play (see: widespread adoration of the San Antonio Spurs), it's only right to knock a guy for basically ignoring his teammates and trying to do everything himself.
And let's not forget that Westbrook's unbridled intensity sometimes boils over to the serious detriment of his team—like when he picked up the technical foul, his 16th, in a loss to the Indiana Pacers on April 12. That tech, unless it's rescinded, will cost Westbrook a one-game suspension, which is a ban the Thunder simply cannot afford as they fight for their playoff lives.
From a physical endurance standpoint as much as anything else, Westbrook's run has been amazing.
But his one-man takeover hasn't netted much in the way of team success. OKC is in a fight for the last playoff spot out West that'll likely go down to the final game of the season. Toss in the 15 contests Westbrook has missed, and he's not quite MVP-worthy.
An enthralling watch? Sure.
A superhuman athlete? Yep.
An unparalleled competitor. Yeah, that too.
MVP? Nah.
Anthony Davis, PF, New Orleans Pelicans
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You can't criticize Anthony Davis' individual production this year. You just can't.
He's on pace to log a player efficiency rating (30.8) that would rank 11th in league history. Only Michael Jordan, Wilt Chamberlain and James have ever posted seasons with higher efficiency ratings than Davis will amass this season.
Catch-all metrics like PER are inherently oversimplified, but in Davis' case, the statistical company he keeps serves as validation.
He's been a monster in the clutch too.
To make the case Davis shouldn't win, you have to rely on two key arguments.
First, Davis lost 14 games to injury this season, and a true MVP can't sit out for 17 percent of the campaign.
Second, you have to lean on the idea that if Davis were really so great, his team would be doing more than scrapping with the beaten-down Thunder for the last playoff spot in the West.
Maybe Davis doesn't demand the ball as much as he should. Maybe he doesn't exhibit the kind of leadership an MVP has to show.
It's not that he's too nice. That's ridiculous.
But maybe he's too young (22), too deferential.
Even if New Orleans holds on to that eighth and final playoff spot, Davis is going to have to wait for his first MVP, which, by the way, is fine. He'll get one sooner than later, and his eventual second, third, fourth, fifth and sixth awards will make him forget all about losing out on the hardware this season.
All stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com unless otherwise indicated.
