Boston Red Sox's Biggest Storylines to Follow at the Start of 2015

Whittling down the large assortment of Red Sox narratives that warrant attention was a tall task. Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval "adjusting" to a new market seemed more like a manufactured storyline than anything. While those guys will draw eyeballs and be exciting for fans to learn and get acclimated to, there are more intriguing things to watch at the onset of the season.

Xander Bogaerts' attempt at a bounce-back campaign would seem to be high on the list. However, as 2014 showed, it will be hard to assess his success level until deep into the season. Two months into last season, he was batting over .300 with an on-base percentage approaching .400. Then, he fell off a cliff.

So, which storylines made the cut? Well, I'm glad you asked.

Rick Porcello's Possible Ascension

Apparently when Rick Porcello says he won't permit contract negotiations during the season, it's merely lip service. Just one day after the sinkerballer placed an embargo on extension talks, the Red Sox handed their offseason acquisition a four-year extension widely reported to be worth $82.5 million.

Porcello avoids the distraction of contract talks like he hoped. However, the pressure turns up a notch. Before he's pitched a game for the organization, Porcello will be paid to be something he's never been at the major league level: an ace. 

Once the extension kicks in next season, the ex-Tiger's $20,625,000 annual salary will make him the 30th-highest paid player and 13th-highest paid pitcher in baseball, according to Spotrac. That's a pretty penny for someone who's compiled a 4.30 ERA over six seasons and 1,073.1 MLB innings.

Even Porcello's career-best 3.43 ERA from a year ago ranked just 36th among qualified starters. That same ERA would have been the ninth-best mark in the majors in 2006. However, pitching is relative. We've come a long way from the mid-to-late 2000s. In today's game, what we once considered "very good" (3.43) needs to be adjusted down to just "good." Like 4,000-yard passing seasons in the NFL, a sub-3.50 ERA has been devalued over the past five years.

So why make this move if you're the Red Sox? The organization has shown its distaste for long-term deals for starting pitchers over 30—a newfound principle it was willing to break for Jon Lester. The Porcello extension begins in 2016. Boston will own his rights for the next five years through the right-hander's age-30 season.

Though he isn't as accomplished as say, Cole Hamels, the Red Sox are banking on getting the best seasons of Porcello's career. By steering away from aging pitchers, Boston figures to protect itself from overpaying for past performance. However, betting big that Porcello will blossom into a star before he's shown he's capable of reaching such heights is arguably just as risky. It's still a gamble. It's just a different game. It's like playing blackjack instead of craps. 

Besides his age, two of the biggest positives for Porcello are his durability and consistency. He's pitched 170-plus innings in five of his six MLB seasons and has eclipsed 176 innings in each of the past four years. That includes a career-high 204.2 innings in 2014, when 21 of his 31 starts were quality starts.

While the career ERA leaves something to be desired, Porcello's advanced FanGraphs stats of fielding independent pitching (FIP) and expected fielding independent pitching (xFIP) do him a great service. Those metrics outperformed his standard ERA in each of his four seasons from 2010-2013. Porcello's next-level stats were particularly strong from 2012-2013, indicating he was a 3.50-ERA caliber starter. That's despite the fact his ERA was closer to 4.50 over those two seasons.

The investment in Porcello indicates the sabermetric savvy Sox believe the pitcher has been trending upward for years and his career-best ERA-plus of 116, according to Baseball-Reference.com, in 2014 was no fluke. Improved defense behind him should help Porcello's cause. However, the hitters' ballparks of the AL East may negate any advantage he'll gain there.  

That leaves all eyes on the New Jersey native as 2015 gets underway. On a team pundits have said time and again is devoid of true No. 1, the Red Sox paid Porcello top dollar after Clay Buchholz pitched like an ace on Opening Day. Porcello will get his turn on the hill next for Boston against the same inept Philadelphia Phillies lineup Buchholz dominated this past Monday. Let the evaluation process. 

Charles Krupa/Associated Press

Koji Uehara's Health

In a way, you can cite health as a key thing to watch for every player in any sport. Mike Napoli, Allen Craig, Ramirez and Buchholz all have lengthy medical charts. However, Koji Uehara is the only injury-prone player currently sidelined. 

A hamstring strain landed Boston's All-Star closer on the disabled list to open the season, but the latest news from The Boston Globe's Peter Abraham is encouraging. Uehara "looked sharp" throwing a 25-pitch live batting practice session Tuesday. That was preceded by 30 warm-up pitches. If all goes well, the 40-year-old could be activated as early as April 13, according to Abraham.

Avoiding going to Edward Mujica at the end of games would certainly put Boston in a stronger position. I dropped their bullpen grade from a "B-plus" to a "C-plus" with the news of Uehara's DL stint. The reoccurring nature of Uehara's hamstring injuries combined with his age make it a particularly delicate situation for John Farrell to juggle when the right-hander is ready to return.

After shoulder issues last season, the recent hammy problem is another reason for Boston to be cautious with their Japanese export moving forward. Don't be surprised if the club takes the Gregg Popovich approach and looks big picture in this circumstance. The team needs Koji in October much more than they do now. It's somewhat presumptive in baseball to plan for the playoffs in April, but not pushing a veteran reliever with an injury history in the early going is just common sense. That's especially true when that reliever is one of the most irreplaceable pieces on the roster.

Along with keeping an eye on Uehara's command and velocity, how Boston manages his workload and who the team chooses to close games when Uehara's not available will be extremely fascinating. 

Return of the Laser Show? 

Chris Szagola/Associated Press

Red Sox Nation couldn't have asked for a better Opening Day from their beloved second baseman. Dustin Pedroia's power outage in recent years is so well-documented at this point that it's practically common knowledge in New England. Concerns over reoccurring wrist and hand issues sapping the former MVP's pop remain legitimate. That's even after he hit two homers in his 2015 debut. 

Forever the wizard with the glove, Pedroia's slugging percentage over the past two seasons checked in at a dreadful .397. After averaging 16 home runs per year from 2008-2012, the four-time All-Star hit just 16 dingers in 1,333 plate appearances from 2013-2014. 

A Pedroia who slugs .450 could take a potential top-five offense and make it the best in baseball. Obviously, an extended look is required before jumping to any conclusions. However,  a two-homer debut (off Hamels, no less) is a great sign. Now, we'll see if the brazen, 5'9" firecracker can back up his mouth and provide fans with a vintage campaign.

The Mookie Betts Experience

Carlos Osorio/Associated Press

A fun-filled, 52-game MLB stint in 2014 (after just a year-and-a-half above A-ball) was followed by a torrid spring training this year (.429 batting average) and then a splashy Opening Day (2-4 with a walk and a home run). The hype around Mookie Betts is such that Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal cited comparisons around baseball to Andrew McCutchen, Derek Jeter and a young Hanley Ramirez.

If you were ranking New England assets for the next decade, it'd probably go: (1) Rob Gronkowski, (2) Brad Stevens, (3) Mookie Betts, (4) Bill Belichick, (5) Tyler Seguin (too soon?).

Betts' quick hands and ability to square up the ball anywhere in the zone make it appear as though this is a player you won't want to miss.

Justin Masterson's Delivery, Velocity

Brynn Anderson/Associated Press

Many blamed injuries for Justin Masterson's catastrophic 2014. Though health problems certainly didn't help, the issues seemed to stem more from a poor delivery than anything. The 6'6" right-hander never seemed able to find his consistent three-quarter arm motion a season ago. He walked 69 batters in 128.2 innings, hit 15 others and had 14 wild pitches. One can contribute his decreased velocity to poor health, but the wildness wreaks of a funky throwing style gone awry. 

Masterson had a solid but unspectacular spring training this year, which doesn't mean much when you consider his preseason success before last season's train wreck (1.09 ERA, 0.81 WHIP in 24.2 innings). Finding his repeatable arm slot and rediscovering some ticks to his fastball (90.3 mph last season after sitting at 93.1 in his All-Star campaign of 2013) and sinker (averaged 88.5 mph last season, 91.1 mph in 2013) are the main things to look for. Those averages are according to FanGraphs.

Improved command with his primary stuff will allow Masterson to throw his best pitch (slider) more because he'll be in pitcher counts more often. Opponents are hitting just .160 off Masterson's slider during the course of his seven-year career, according to FanGraphs.

Joy R. Absalon-USA TODAY Sports

Rusney Castillo and Blake Swihart's Play in Pawtucket

How can you not have an eye on the farm system when the organization has a pair of eye-popping prospects on the cusp? A pair of unexciting veterans block Rusney Castillo and Blake Swihart from MLB gigs. The way the duo performs in Triple-A will determine how quickly their journey to Boston will be.

At 27 years old and with an MLB salary already secured, Castillo appears to have the more immediate future of the two. If he torments minor league pitching as expected, Shane Victorino will need a strong start to the year to stave off Castillo. Unlike with Swihart, there is no fiscal advantage to keeping Castillo in the minors. The decision will be based solely on what's best for the Cuban newcomer, who is still acclimating back to a life of playing professional baseball every day. 

Meanwhile, Swihart's 2015 expectations vaulted thanks to the misfortune of Christian Vazquez. The projected starting catcher's season-ending Tommy John surgery paired with Boston's unwillingness to trade Baseball America's top-20 prospect for an ace has fans assuming Triple-A is just a pit stop for Swihart. With the way Ryan Hannigan and Sandy Leon have hit over the past few seasons, Swihart has a real chance to earn a midseason call-up. He'll first have to answer some lingering questions in Triple-A. He struggled against the more polished pitchers at that level in 2014. 

Note: Stats are courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com or FanGraphs unless otherwise noted. All prospect rankings courtesy of BaseballAmerica.com.