Projecting the Miami Heat's 2015 Free-Agency Big Board
The Miami Heat are currently battling to remain in the Eastern Conference's playoff picture. But even so, what's really important is next season.
Miami's current squad is a lot of fun to watch, but it doesn't have a chance at making any postseason noise. Next year, however, could be a different story. With a healthy Chris Bosh and Josh McRoberts back in the lineup, the Heat have a real shot at being an Eastern powerhouse. Especially if they can shore up a few weaknesses in free agency.
Miami's biggest concern is the quickly expiring contract of its star point guard (more on that later), but it could stand to add a rotation wing as well. The Heat essentially have no depth at the 3—they've got Luol Deng, and that's about it.
Miami isn't looking to add too much salary, but it should at least be able to make a signing or two. Ideally, it would find a knockdown shooter who isn't a defensive minus to back up Deng or even Dwyane Wade for stretches. “Three and D” wings aren't always easy to find, but there are a few good options on the market this summer.
Let's take a look at who Miami might be targeting. Players are ranked based on priority.
No. 6: Wesley Johnson
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Wesley Johnson would be an interesting fit with the Heat and worth signing if they could lure him over for cheap.
Johnson's a bit of a project (even at 27 years old), but he's worth gambling on. He's shooting 36 percent from deep and 39.2 percent on spot-up attempts—more than enough to be playable in any of Miami's lineups.
His problem is that he's being pressed to do far too much for the Los Angeles Lakers. The Lakers are asking Johnson to create a fair bit of his own offense via high pick-and-rolls or isolations, and he's just not that type of player. He doesn't have the handle to get all the way to the rim, and as a result, he's launching a lot of clunky pull-up jumpers.
In Miami, he could play almost strictly off the ball. Beyond just being a good catch-and-shoot threat, he's actually a dangerous cutter. He's isn't always the best at picking his spots when diving to the hoop, but he's hitting 72 percent at the rim.
He could also fit in well defensively for Miami. He's not a great defender right now, but he's a springy athlete who would slide nicely into the Heat's aggressive blitzing scheme. He's played at the 2, 3 and even the 4 at spots in his career, which would give Miami a lot of freedom to switch defensively as well.
No. 5: Kyle Singler
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Kyle Singler is an admittedly limited player, but as nothing more than a strict backup for Deng, he would fit nicely.
It's probably a stretch to call Singler a “Three and D” wing. But he's some facsimile of that and is slated to be relatively cheap this offseason. Over half of his shots are vanilla catch-and-shoot attempts, and he's knocked them down at a great clip. He's shooting 40 percent from deep this season, including 43 percent from the corners.
The problem is that he genuinely can't do almost anything else offensively.
His attempts at creating off-the-bounce have been awful. He's hitting just 44 percent from inside 10 feet and getting to the line at an anemic rate. He's also shooting a bricky 27.6 percent on pull-ups. He'll be fine so long as Miami expects nothing more than spot-up attempts. But things could get ugly if they look to him for shot creation.
Defensively, Singler is average.
In fact, he's holding opponents to almost exactly their season averages (in terms of shooting percentage) when he defends them. He's not the quickest wing, so the Heat couldn't use him to hide guards like Shabazz Napier or to give Wade a defensive breather. However, he plays hard and is big enough to switch onto some 4s, which gives him a little utility.
This wouldn't be a game-breaking signing. But Singler is a helpful rotation player, and his shot-making fills a clear need. They could get solid value out of him.
No. 4: Al-Farouq Aminu
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Al-Farouq Aminu has a 2015-16 player option, per HoopsHype. He wouldn't offer Miami much in the way of shooting (he's hitting 26 percent from deep), but he's such a useful wing it wouldn't be surprising to see the Heat target him anyways.
Only a handful of players offer the kind of defensive versatility Aminu does.
ESPN's real plus-minus system ranks him as the sixth-best defensive wing and the league's 13th-best defender, period. When he's on the floor, the Dallas Mavericks are giving up just 98.9 points per 100 possessions. Over the course of the season, that would be the second-best mark in the NBA.
Aminu is one of the rare wings whose sheer flexibility allows teams to hide their worst defenders. He's played four positions for the Mavs this season, including a small chunk of minutes at center (!!).
That kind of amorphous defense would be terrific in the Heat's scheme. It wouldn't be quite so easy to punish Miami after a failed blitz if Aminu was waiting in the wings to hedge or switch onto the rolling big.
And while Aminu isn't a great offensive player, he's not totally damaging, either. The Mavs are scoring at very healthy rates when he's on the floor. He's also a smart cutter and crashes the offensive boards well for a wing.
He would pair well with Goran Dragic offensively, specifically on the break. Nearly 20 percent of his offensive possessions come in transition, a huge number for a wing who rarely handles the ball.
Aminu is smart at leaking out after opponent misses, and he would be a fun partner for Dragic to run fast breaks with.
No. 3 Mike Dunleavy
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Mike Dunleavy's age (he'll be 35 years old next season) is a small concern, but he'd be a huge addition on a short-term deal.
Dunleavy is one of the best spot-up shooters in the league. Well over half of his shot attempts are three-pointers, and he's connecting on 41.3 percent of them.
He's not just a spot-up shooter, however. The Chicago Bulls have used him in all sorts of ways. He runs off screens, uses dribble hand-offs designed to get him moving toward the basket and even does a little pick-and-roll creating.
The Heat are a little light on bench scoring, and Dunleavy could do them a lot of good in that sense. It would be unwise to run too much of the offense through him, but he'd be a great secondary ball-handler in Miami's bench units (and a lot of fun alongside McRoberts).
Defensively, Dunleavy is also solid, albeit a bit more limited than some of the other players mentioned here. He doesn't have the lateral quickness to defend most guards, but he's great against bigger wings thanks to his size (he's 6'9”) and length.
It would be interesting to see him and Deng get a lot of minutes together. Both he and Deng have spent a lot of time at multiple positions throughout their careers, and having them on the court together would allow for a lot of switching—a necessity against smaller teams like the Golden State Warriors.
No. 2: Jared Dudley
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Jared Dudley has an early termination option in 2015-16, per HoopsHype. He may choose to stick with the Milwaukee Bucks, with whom he's been excellent. But if he decides to test the market, the Heat should target him aggressively.
Dudley is a quintessential “glue guy.” He's a good defender (ESPN's real plus-minus system pegs him as one of the league's best defensive small forwards), and he can do a little bit of everything offensively.
His main niche is shooting—he's hitting 40 percent from deep. But like Dunleavy, he can generate a little offense in other ways.
The Bucks actually use Dudley as a screener in a lot of pick-and-rolls, and he's been surprisingly effective in that role. He mostly functions as a pick-and-pop threat, but he's capable of catching the ball in the middle of the floor and making quick passes to shooters in the corners.
One of the best things about Dudley offensively is his unselfishness. He's only averaging 1.8 assists. But he passes the ball a ton and his time of possession is well under a minute per game.
Dudley never stands around and pounds his dribble. If he doesn't see an immediate opening, he'll move the ball along to someone else. That sounds basic, but it's important. The hardest teams to stop offensively are the ones that whip the ball from corner to corner. That's what Dudley helps provide.
No. 1: Goran Dragic
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This is fairly obvious. Dragic has a player option for this summer, per HoopsHype, and the Heat's top priority has to be locking him in to a long-term deal.
Dragic has been phenomenal since joining Miami. He's averaging 17 points and 5.6 assists per game on 61 percent true shooting and has given life to what was a non-existent transition attack.
Prior to obtaining Dragic, Miami was averaging just 8.5 fast-break points per game. With Dragic, it's averaging 13.1 per game.
Nearly 26 percent of his offense has come in transition, and Miami is scoring 1.47 points per possession on those play types. He's one of the league's best finishers at the rim (shooting 70 percent there), in part because he's so good at tricking bigs with fakes or spins around the basket.
It's interesting to contrast the way he and Wade play, especially in the pick-and-roll. While Wade tends to head straight to the basket, Dragic will almost casually probe the defense until a seam opens up for a skip pass or a drive to the rim.
It's that kind of patient style that makes him such a perfect fit with stretch bigs. Dragic would have a field day playing alongside Bosh or McRoberts. With him in tow, the Heat would have some virtually unguardable lineups. They could throw out something like Dragic-Wade-Deng-McRoberts-Bosh, giving them players who can shoot, pass and dribble at every position.
Miami will almost certainly take a massive step backward if it doesn't end up re-signing Dragic. They can't let a player of his caliber slip away.
All statistics accurate as of 3/26/2015 and courtesy of Basketball-Reference or NBA.com/Stats unless stated otherwise.
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