Complete Seattle Mariners 2015 Season Preview

A season full of optimism and expectations for the Seattle Mariners is less than two weeks from getting underway.

The Mariners far outperformed projections last season with an 87-75 record, falling just one game short of breaking a franchise playoff drought that now stands at 13 years. With some new additions at previous positions of weakness, Seattle is expected to get over that hump and be a serious contender in the American League.

Anything short of a postseason berth would have to be considered a massive disappointment in Seattle. Of course, the Mariners had similar expectations following a promising season in 2010 and produced one of the most miserable years in franchise history, but there are plenty of reasons to believe this team won't repeat that failure.

With a mix of star power and young contributors, the Mariners will at the very least be an entertaining club with plenty of upside.

All stats via FanGraphs.com unless otherwise noted.

Spring Training Recap

Lenny Ignelzi/Associated Press

The top storyline of the spring has been Taijuan Walker, who has looked absolutely dominant.

Seattle stands at 10-10 through Wednesday's action in the Cactus League. The record isn't terribly important nor are the stats for the vast majority of players, but there were some things at stake entering the spring.

The single most interesting thing in Seattle's camp at the beginning of March was the shortstop battle between Brad Miller and Chris Taylor. Both got off to fast starts at the plate in the spring, so it looked like it would be a close competition that came down to the wire.

Unfortunately, the battle ended early, as Taylor suffered a broken wrist on March 14 and will be sidelined for four to six weeks, according to Greg Johns of MLB.com. Miller, who may have won the job anyway with a spring on-base plus slugging percentage of 1.090, will be the starting shortstop for at least the first month of the season.

The fifth spot in the rotation was also up for grabs between Taijuan Walker, Roenis Elias and a few other fringe candidates. However, Walker has just about ended the discussion, tossing 18 scoreless spring innings while allowing just six hits and four walks and striking out 19.

Seattle has to be thrilled with what Walker has shown this spring, as both his stuff and his command are absolutely on point. Walker looks more ready than ever to tap into his limitless pitching potential, giving the Mariners rotation tons of upside.

With the 25-man roster just about decided, Seattle's main goal for the rest of the spring will be to stay healthy. One more interesting thing to watch will be a potential Erasmo Ramirez trade, as he is unlikely to make the rotation and would certainly be claimed on waivers if Seattle didn't keep him on the active roster.

Injury Updates Entering Opening Day

Charlie Riedel/Associated Press

Chris Taylor suffered the most significant injury of the spring for the Mariners.

SS Chris Taylor

Taylor's four-to-six-week timetable means he should be able to return sometime in mid-April. Combine that with whatever rehab time he needs in Tacoma and Taylor is likely to miss at least the first month of the regular season.

The decision for the Mariners will be whether Taylor deserves a spot on the active roster when he returns. Taylor was making a case with a strong spring and could be a valuable bench piece with his defense and speed.

While Willie Bloomquist offers a bit more versatility, the Mariners don't want to be running him out at shortstop too often. Taylor offers more upside as a bench player. If Brad Miller struggles out of the gate, Taylor could become the starter very quickly as well.

SP Danny Hultzen

After spending a year and a half recovering from a torn rotator cuff and labrum surgery, Hultzen was finally able to return this spring. Hultzen was surprisingly able to shake off the rust in his one spring outing, tossing a scoreless inning while allowing just one walk.

There's a long way to go before Hultzen will be ready to pitch in the majors. However, there's not a ton of starting pitching depth in the system, so Hultzen could help somewhere down the line if his first few starts in Tacoma go well.

SP James Paxton

Paxton missed about three weeks after injuring both of his forearms following a fall during an athletic drill early in camp. The injury wasn't that serious, but the Mariners decided to be extra cautious given Paxton's fragile health in the past.

In his spring debut last Sunday, Paxton looked fine, pitching 3.1 scoreless innings while allowing five hits and one walk and striking out two. Barring any setbacks in his final spring outings, Paxton should be completely ready for his first start of the regular season.

Lineup Preview

Charlie Riedel/Associated Press

Even if he can't match his 2014 power numbers, Nelson Cruz will be a major upgrade at DH.

Starting Lineup

1. Austin Jackson, CF

2. Seth Smith, RF

3. Robinson Cano, 2B

4. Nelson Cruz, DH

5. Kyle Seager, 3B

6. Logan Morrison, 1B

7. Mike Zunino, C

8. Dustin Ackley, LF

9. Brad Miler, SS

There shouldn't be too many surprises here. Seattle manager Lloyd McClendon has already said that he plans on batting either Seth Smith or Justin Ruggiano second, per Bob Dutton of The Tacoma News Tribune, which will move Ackley down towards the bottom of the lineup.

There are some concerns in Seattle's starting lineup for sure, but no true black holes exist like in years past. The heart of the order is by far the best the Mariners have had in quite some time and will be dangerous for any pitcher to face, even if there are issues elsewhere.

McClendon has set the goal at 700 runs, according to Tyler Kepner of The New York Times, a number the club hasn't reached since 2007. With strong hitters in the Nos. 3-5 slots, even accounting for Cruz's likely drop in power, Seattle has a reasonable chance to reach the benchmark.

Bench

Justin Ruggiano, OF

Jesus Sucre, C

Willie Bloomquist, UTIL

Rickie Weeks, UTIL

This is where Seattle could run into some trouble. Ruggiano is a capable fourth outfielder and Weeks offers upside at the plate, but the other two spots have to be considered weaknesses for now.

Weeks, who posted a strong 127 wRC+ a year ago, will platoon with Ackley in left field and figures to play some first base as well. While it would be ideal for Ackley to continue his hot second half to the point where he doesn’t need a platoon partner—which would keeping Weeks' poor defense out of the outfield—that may be too much to ask for.

Ruggiano has mashed lefties in his career (lifetime 128 wRC+) and will platoon with Smith in right field. If Jackson can't bounce back from his awful second half with the Mariners, Ruggiano has the ability to play some center as well.

Taylor's injury all but guarantees Bloomquist a 25-man spot on Opening Day. Bloomquists' defense ability will be limited as a 37-year-old coming off of major knee surgery, meaning the Mariners may prefer Taylor or another infielder on the bench at some point.

Sucre is a good defensive catcher, but any defensive value he brings is just about negated by his nonexistent offensive skills. Seattle will likely look to upgrade at backup catcher sometime during the summer, with prospect John Hicks emerging as a possible candidate.

Rotation Preview

Felix Hernandez, RHP

Hisashi Iwakuma, RHP

James Paxton, LHP

J.A. Happ, LHP

Taijuan Walker, RHP

Although the lineup is improved, Seattle's pitching staff is still the true strength of the team. With an excellent No. 1 and No. 2 at the top and two intriguing young pitchers, the Mariners rotation has the upside to carry the team to a pennant.

It would be a surprise if Elias beat out Walker for the fifth spot at this point. However, it's very rare for a team to make it through the season with only five starters, and Elias makes for pretty good injury insurance.

Hernandez has yet to disappoint at any point in his career. There are some concerns about Iwakuma's durability down the stretch, particularly if the Mariners are in the playoff race, but he's posted a combined 6.9 WAR his two years as a full-time starter.

That means Paxton and Walker will be the biggest variables in Seattle's rotation. With maturation and consistency, both have the stuff to be dominant.

The Mariners would be fortunate to get the same level of production that Chris Young offered last year out of Happ. Still, Happ is a fly-ball pitcher who will fit well in Safeco Field and figures to be a serviceable back-of-the-rotation starter.

Bullpen Preview

Ross D. Franklin/Associated Press

Fernando Rodney often makes it interesting, but he led an outstanding Seattle bullpen in 2014.

Fernando Rodney, RHP

Danny Farquhar, RHP

Dominic Leone, RHP

Charlie Furbush, LHP

Tom Wilhelmsen, RHP

Yoervis Medina, RHP

Tyler Olson, LHP

The Mariners return six members of a bullpen that was one of the best in the majors in 2014 by just about any measure. Losing Brandon Maurer, who was outstanding after being transitioned to the bullpen, hurts some, but the Mariners have the depth to replace him.

Relievers are volatile from year to year, so a repeat of last year's numbers may be unlikely, particularly for Medina or Leone. Still, there are plenty of other power arms with upside here.

The only spot still to be decided is the second left-handed reliever behind Furbush to replace Joe Beimel. Tyler Olson has emerged as an out-of-nowhere candidate to take the position, striking out 11 in nine spring innings while allowing just one unearned run on five hits and no walks.

If someone gets injured or is ineffective, the Mariners have a nice depth piece in Carson Smith, who is ready to take over at any time.

Prospects to Watch

OF Alex Jackson

The consensus top prospect in the organization will certainly be worth watching in 2015. Jackson hit .280/.344/.476 in his first professional season in the Arizona Rookie League last year despite missing some time with a fractured bone in his face.

This season, Jackson will move up into levels of the minors where his statistics will mean a lot more. Even though the Mariners selected Jackson sixth overall in last year's draft, scouting director Tom McNamara believes the team has a No. 1 overall talent, per David Laurila of FanGraphs.

Jackson already has a home run to his credit in spring training.

3B/1B D.J. Peterson and Patrick Kivlehan

Peterson and Kivlehan are behind Jackson on the overall prospect rankings, but are much closer to the majors. With Morrison a bit of an uncertainty at first base, either one has the potential to help the Mariners as soon as this summer.

Peterson survived in a post-High Desert hitting environment last season, posting a 126 wRC+ in 58 games at Double-A Jackson. Kivlehan was a bit slower to develop, but he broke out in a major way last season with a 140 wRC+ in 104 games at Jackson and an outstanding performance in the Arizona Fall League.

It will be interesting to watch how both perform in their first round at Triple-A, which should come early in the season.

SS Ketel Marte

The Mariners have two young shortstops with the potential to anchor the position for years to come. But Marte could be on the brink of the majors in 2015 and could potentially be a third option.

At just 21 years old, Marte has already had a good season in Double-A and has played some ball in Triple-A, which are fantastic signs for someone his age. Marte dosen't strike out much and has the speed to steal 30-plus bases, making him a possible leadoff hitter in the future with good defensive skills at shortstop.

Marte committed three errors in his first three spring games, so his time in Tacoma will be important for his confidence. If Marte continues his success from last year, he will become a very valuable asset, either as a trade chip or as part of the team's future plans.

Breakout Candidate

Associated Press

Among Seattle's young position players, Zunino is the most poised to make the leap towards stardom.

C Mike Zunino

Zunino has already established himself as an everyday player in the major leagues, so he isn't a breakout candidate in that regard. But 2015 could be the year that Zunino transforms from a good player into a star.

In his first season of being a starting catcher, Zunino posted a respectable 1.7 WAR, which doesn't account for his strong pitch-framing ability. Zunino hit 22 home runs, tied for third among catchers, while providing outstanding defense and receiving ability.

It's his skills besides power at the plate that were the problem. A .199 average, .254 OBP and 33.2 percent strikeout rate are not good enough for a starter on a playoff contending team.

Those numbers are a bit alarming, but they make more sense when considering how quickly the Mariners rushed Zunino to the majors. Zunino played just 115 games in the year between being drafted and debuting in Seattle, giving him little time to adjust to advanced pitching.

The Mariners put a ton on Zunino's plate early, so it's understandable that he's a bit behind with the ability to make contact and recognize pitches. More experience is only going to help and Zunino should improve greatly in his second full year in the majors.

If he can push that average to .230 and OBP towards .300 with a few less strikeouts, Zunino will be a very valuable player to Seattle in 2015.

Top Keys to Success

Associated Press

Another dreadful performance from Austin Jackson could be a disaster.

Stay Healthy

Health is the key to any team looking to make a deep run in October. The Mariners have depth at a few positions, but they absolutely cannot afford injuries at others.

Walker, Paxton and Iwakuma don't exactly have clean injury histories over the past couple of seasons. If the Mariners were forced to turn to a seventh starter behind a strong depth piece in Elias, it's unclear exactly where they would go.

The organization also is extremely thin in the outfield. Ruggiano is a fine platoon partner and has the versatility to play any position, but the Mariners would have to turn to Stefen Romero or James Jones on the bench if Ruggiano is pressed into a starting role due to injury.

No matter how well they are constructed, few teams have the depth to combat any injury scenario. Health could ultimately be the difference for a Mariners team with little margin for error.

Austin Jackson Bounce Back

Jackson looked like the key to sparking a postseason run in 2014 after the Mariners got nothing out of center field for the first four months of the season. Instead, Jackson was dreadful after the trade deadline, posting a .527 OPS.

It's fair to trust Jackson's four years of relative success over two months of failure, but there is some concern here. Seattle absolutely cannot afford to have a black hole at such an important position and in the leadoff spot ahead of a strong middle of the lineup.

Jackson believes spending more time with Lloyd McClendon, his hitting coach with the Detroit Tigers, will help, per Dutton: 

"

My first four years being with Lloyd, he was able to iron out some of the problems I had in my swing—he knew the key things we can go back to, to get me locked back in. I didn’t have that last year. It was kind of tough to make adjustments on the fly…Last year, I would try to find it, but I think I created some bad habits, and it was kind of tough to get out of them. This offseason, I tried to work on those things as much as I can. Hopefully, when spring training starts, we can get some good work in.

"

Young Players Take the Next Step

The Mariners have enough star power with Hernandez, Cano, Cruz, Seager and Iwakuma to be a good team—maybe even a wild-card contender. However, it's the performances of a few younger players that could turn Seattle into a World Series threat.

Zunino's potential to breakout has been previously mentioned. Brad Miller could also help in a big way if he reaches anything close to the 122 wRC+ he posted in the second half of 2014.

On the pitching side, the next step in the developments of Paxton and Walker could help the Mariners rotation be dominant. Walker in particular will be a key, as he has the upside of an ace and has shown some of that potential in the spring.

If the Mariners can get just a couple of these young players to take the next step, they will be a team of very few weaknesses. 

2015 Season Outlook

Associated Press

McClendon and Cano are ready to become Seattle heroes and carry the Mariners into the playoffs.

There's no sugarcoating the 2015 season: Failing to reach the playoffs would be a massive disappointment for Seattle. With the amount of talent on the roster, the ALCS could even be considered a minimal goal.

The last time the Mariners received this much hype, in 2010, they failed miserably. But there are far more reasons to believe that this roster will succeed—Cano will be starting at second base instead of Chone Figgins, for one.

Seattle isn't in an easy division, but the Mariners are the AL West favorites on paper. The Los Angeles Angels and Oakland Athletics, the two other contenders in the division, have gotten worse since last year, while the Mariners have only improved.

Most importantly, the Mariners are built to win now, but they also have a window of contention that will last a few years. With star-caliber players, young talent, a good manager and improvements at their biggest weaknesses from a year ago, there's no reason Seattle shouldn't finally reach the postseason for the first time since 2001.