Can Eli Manning Salvage a Once Hall of Fame-Worthy Legacy?

Late last week, when the Pittsburgh Steelers gave quarterback Ben Roethlisberger a new blockbuster deal in order to avoid having Big Ben play out a contract year in 2015, the natural assumption was that the New York Giants and quarterback Eli Manning would follow suit with that Roethlisberger deal working as a blueprint. 

Not so much. 

“We’d certainly prefer to do it before the season," Giants co-owner John Mara said Monday, according to the New York Post, "but if it doesn’t happen, we’re still going to line up and play." 

"There are no guns to anyone's head," said co-owner Steve Tisch, per NJ.com, "no ticking clock. I have not heard he has been putting any pressure on us, so I think let's just wait and see."

Now, some of that could be posturing, and Tisch also noted that he wants Manning to play his entire career in blue. The franchise tag is always on the table if the two parties don't see eye-to-eye on the framework of a new long-term deal, so by no means does this indicate Manning's days in New York are numbered. 

Still, the Giants seem to realize that they're better off waiting to see what Manning is able to do with a fuller arsenal of weapons in 2015. Not only could it help that the offense won't have to deal with the growing pains that came with learning new offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo's new system in 2014, but Manning could benefit greatly if top receivers Odell Beckham Jr. and Victor Cruz can actually play full seasons. 

The Giants could save salary-cap space immediately by extending Manning now, but it's not as though they were going to spend much more money this offseason. The first wave of free agency is over, and New York still has about $8 million in cap space, per Over the Cap. 

But when you consider that Manning was on top of the football world as the reigning Super Bowl MVP just three years ago, it's hard to believe he's back in a position where the Giants are asking him to prove it.

At one point, it appeared Manning was on the Hall of Fame track, thanks mainly to those two David-over-Goliath Super Bowl performances. And yes, you could argue that those legendary runs will land him in Canton regardless of what he did before, afterward and in between, but it has to at least be a legitimate debate now. 

That's how far Manning has fallen since that 2011 championship. Tisch admitted Manning has had "a couple off years," which is commendable but may still be an understatement. 

The reality is he's been the league's most mistake-prone quarterback for almost the entirety of his NFL career and particularly during his prime, which should have started around the time he led the NFL with 25 interceptions as a 29-year-old in 2010. 

Regardless of sample size, Manning has not put up the type of individual numbers that are usually required of those who belong in the Hall of Fame conversation. 

If we take his first three growing pain-filled seasons out of the equation and look at his career since 2007, he ranks below the league median in every key rate-based stat except yards-per-attempt average:

Category	Total	Rank out of 35	Ranked around him
Comp.%	60.4	23rd	Flacco, Fitzpatrick
TD-INT ratio	205-141	25th	Favre, Campbell
Interception rate	3.3	30th	Palmer, Anderson
Yards/attempt	7.3	14th	Favre, Ryan
Rating	85.1	20th	Dalton, Cutler
Winning %	.555	16th	Warner, McNabb

By no means did he improve in those areas during what was supposed to be his prime:

Category	Total	Rank out of 36	Ranked around him
Comp.%	60.9	20th	Fitzpatrick, Stafford
TD-INT ratio	134-97	27th	Cassel, Fitzpatrick
Interception rate	3.4	35th	Ponder, Geno Smith
Yards/attempt	7.5	11th	Kaepernick, Newton
Rating	85.6	19th	Vick, Newton
Winning %	.513	18th	Rivers, Stafford

And now even that winning percentage has plummeted, too:

Category	Total	Rank out of 34	Ranked around him
Comp.%	60.3	20th	Foles, Flacco
TD-INT ratio	74-56	27th	Vick, Schaub
Interception rate	3.3	29th	Cutler, Dalton
Yards/attempt	7.2	14th	Palmer, Brady
Rating	83.1	24th	Flacco, Stafford
Winning %	.458	22nd	Tannehill, Stafford

For those who insist on using team stats to assess individual performances in a team sport—a practice which is completely unfair—yes, Manning has helped New York win two titles, but keep in mind that he and the G-Men have won just 13 games the last two seasons and have missed the playoffs five times in the last six years. 

And outside of those two unforgettable Super Bowl runs, Manning has an 0-3 record in three playoff appearances. In those three losses, he has two touchdowns, six interceptions and a passer rating of 48.4.

Blame former offensive coordinator Kevin Gilbride or the running game or the receiving corps or the defense or the offensive line all you want, but truly great quarterbacks rarely lead the NFL in interceptions. Yet Manning has done that twice in the last five years, becoming the only pivot this century to throw 25 or more picks in two separate seasons. 

In 2013, Manning became the first 30-something-year-old quarterback in modern NFL history to complete fewer than 60 percent of his passes, throw 25 interceptions and post a passer-rating ranking in the bottom three in the league.

Did he bounce back under McAdoo in 2014? Absolutely, but it helped that Beckham had one of the best rookie seasons in NFL history and the new offense certainly made things easier. He was asked to do less and took advantage, posting the highest completion percentage of his career while improving across the board at almost every rate-based or cumulative stat. 

But he was still only the 15th highest-rated qualified passer in football, and he and the Giants were able to win just six games. Ultimately, we were still looking at a guy who was coming off the worst season of his career and in fact one of the worst statistical seasons ever recorded by a quarterback his age. 

Pro Football Focus determined that in 2013, Manning was the league's least accurate qualified quarterback. He improved in that area in 2014 but was still ranked 19th among 27 qualifiers. In terms of accuracy on deep passes, he ranked 16th both years. 

In order to get a feel for where all of this lands Manning in the Hall of Fame conversation, I've taken the average spot in which the nine current Hall of Fame quarterbacks from the modern era (post-1970 merger) ranked in three key categories during their respective careers, and I've compared that to where Manning ranks in the same three areas during his NFL tenure.

Then, for good measure, I've added the average ranks of several great quarterbacks who are still ineligible for the Hall of Fame, as well as several great quarterbacks who have yet to or may never make the Hall of Fame cut:

Credit: Brad Gagnon/Bleacher Report

Even with those two Super Bowls, it's going to be mighty hard for Manning to strut into Canton without improving those numbers or doing something else to spruce up his resume.

Jim Plunkett, who like Manning was a two-time Super Bowl champion and also won himself a Super Bowl MVP, is not in the Hall of Fame, despite possessing individual stats that ranked him in a similar range among his peers to the one Manning's in. 

During his time in the NFL, Plunkett had the 31st-best passer rating among quarterbacks with at least 50 starts. That of course seems very unworthy of the Hall of Fame. But during his tenure, Manning ranks 23rd in the same category.

Right now, it's hard to separate Manning from non-Hall of Famers such as Plunkett, Ken Stabler and even Phil Simms, all of whom won Super Bowls but lacked great individual numbers.

Manning hasn't even been a first- or second-team All-Pro, while Stabler was a Super Bowl champion, a first-team All-Pro and an MVP. Simms had stronger cumulative ratings in the key rate-based stats sampled above and won two Super Bowls. 

For Manning, it's been a career of extreme highs and lows. The reality is it's probably too late for the 34-year-old to really make a substantial dent in his career statistical averages, especially those that are rate-based. And so the key for him now might be to simply make history by leading the Giants to another improbable Super Bowl. 

I promise you Canton won't deny a three-time Super Bowl-winning quarterback and especially a three-time Super Bowl MVP. 

At the very least, Manning has to make some deep playoff runs. He has to carry this team, regardless of the defense or the coaching or the offensive line or the running game. With McAdoo's quarterback-friendly system and with Beckham, Cruz and talented backs Andre Williams and Rashad Jennings in the backfield, he might have more talent surrounding him now than ever in the past. 

Five other starting quarterbacks are older than Manning. One of them, Tom Brady, is the reigning Super Bowl MVP. Another, Drew Brees, passed for a league-leading 4,952 yards in 2014. Another, Tony Romo, was the league's highest-rated passer last season. The oldest of them all, Peyton Manning, is only a year removed from an MVP season. 

In other words, the window remains wide-open.

Manning's committed a lot of mistakes over the years, but he's been able to make up for his bad habits by coming up big when it has mattered most. But now, in order to ride off into the sunset a legend, he might have to make lightning strike one more time. 

Brad Gagnon has covered the NFL for Bleacher Report since 2012.

Follow @Brad_Gagnon