Breaking Down the Bottom of the Eastern and Western Conference Playoff Races
We're into the stretch run of the season now, and while much attention this year has been lavished on the best of the best in Golden State and Atlanta, there are compelling races going on at the bottom of each conference's playoff bracket.
In the West, three teams are fighting for one spot. Oklahoma City sits in the eighth-seed position as of this morning, while New Orleans and Phoenix are right behind.
The East is even more of a jumble, with six teams duking it out for the last three playoff bids. Milwaukee's in sixth place, but it's fading fast. Miami holds the No. 7 seed, while Charlotte has three challengers—Boston, Indiana, Brooklyn—within a game of their hold on the eighth and final spot.
In times like these, it's important to take stock and see what's what. Where are all these teams right now, and where are they going? Who do they have left to play, and where? Who, in all likelihood, will we be watching on TV come May and June? Let's break it down.
Western Conference
By clicking through the options in the interactive graphic above, you can see that the Thunder currently hold a 2.5-game lead on the Suns and a 3.0-game lead on the Pelicans for the No. 8 seed in the West.
OKC and New Orleans have each played 70 games, and they each have an even split of home and road games in their 12 remaining contests this season. Phoenix has already played 71 games, so the Thunder and Pelicans have a game at hand, and the Suns are at a disadvantage compared to the others with only five home games in their final 11.
Phoenix is also at a disadvantage in terms of the quality of opponents they'll face the rest of the way. In those 11 games, they'll face nine teams with a record of .500 or better, while both the Thunder and Pellies only face seven in their 12 remaining games.
All those factors are why NumberFire's projections (which are based on their nERD score, "a complex mathematical formula combined with an advanced algorithm for factoring in situational variables to get a much clearer and more accurate sense of performance") have the Suns as the least likely of the three teams to make it into the postseason, despite them currently sitting a half-game ahead of New Orleans.
Of course, none of these numbers tell us about what might be the most important factor in the Western Conference playoff race: injuries.
The Thunder are without both Kevin Durant and Serge Ibaka for the foreseeable future. The Pelicans are still without Jrue Holiday and Ryan Anderson, while Omer Asik and Tyreke Evans each sat Sunday's game against the Clippers. Anthony Davis has dealt with various issues of his own, as well.
OKC is only 19-21 without Durant in the lineup this season, but they're 8-5 in this most recent, post-All Star break absence where Russell Westbrook has been lighting the world on fire. With Enes Kanter, Steven Adams and Mitch McGary on hand to pick up Ibaka's slack, the Thunder are more able to weather the absence of their two stars than ever before.
A 2.5-game lead, the easiest remaining schedule and Westbrook should be enough to solidify that final playoff spot for Oklahoma City.
Predictions
In: Oklahoma City
Out: Phoenix, New Orleans
Eastern Conference
The Bucks are falling apart. They once looked like a surefire playoff team, but they're 2-8 in their last 10 games and have lost six straight after falling to Cleveland on Sunday. Even their 3.5-game lead over the ninth-seeded Boston Celtics doesn't look safe anymore.
Luckily, they play two-thirds of their remaining games at home, where they're 19-14 this season. Despite this recent slide, the NumberFire projections still give them a better than 95 percent chance of knocking down the postseason door.
Miami, in seventh place, has a negative home-road split in their 13 remaining games, but with the second-easiest schedule of these six teams and a 2.0-game lead on ninth place, they look to be fairly safe as well. NumberFire's got them with nearly a 75 percent chance of dancing come May and June.
That final spot, though, is a mess. Charlotte currently leads, but Boston, Indiana and Brooklyn are all within a game or less. The Hornets are unlucky in that they play the Hawks and Raptors twice each over their final 14 games, and they don't get a disaster like the Knicks mixed in anywhere like the Nets do.
Brooklyn has the best home-road split (9-4) but also the toughest remaining schedule with seven of 13 games against teams that are .500 or better. After opening April against the Knicks, the Nets have to go through a Toronto-Atlanta-Portland-Atlanta-Washington gauntlet before finishing with Milwaukee, Chicago and Orlando.
Boston has the easiest remaining schedule of these six teams, but the C's unluckily have two games against Cleveland mixed in. The Celtics also have six games against the other five (Milwaukee twice, each of the other four teams once) who are fighting for positioning left on the schedule that will essentially determine their postseason fate.
Indiana's schedule looks pretty nice until you get to the very end, when they close with a brutal Thunder-Wizards-Grizzlies stretch in their final three games.
Like I said, the East is a mess. None of these teams is all that likely to challenge the Hawks or Cavaliers in the first round of the playoffs, even if the Pacers were to get Paul George back. There's just not enough time for them to hit something resembling full strength.
Making the playoffs is good for locker-room morale, but whoever gets there is exceedingly likely to make an early exit. Milwaukee and Miami are pretty good bets, while Brooklyn, given its schedule, seems likely to be staying home.
As for the Charlotte-Boston-Indiana jumble, NumberFire gives each of the three teams somewhere between a 37.0 percent and 37.5 percent chance of making it, which underscores just how close this really is. Charlotte, with their game at hand, half-game lead and superior conference record (the next tiebreaker after head-to-head), has the inside track.
Predictions
In: Milwaukee, Miami, Charlotte
Out: Boston, Indiana, Brooklyn
