Nikola Mirotic or Taj Gibson: Who Should Be Chicago Bulls' 3rd Big?

The Chicago Bulls have weathered injuries to key players before, but there was something different about the ankle injury that sidelined reserve forward Taj Gibson for three weeks. Rookie Nikola Mirotic got called up to be the first big man off the bench, and he genuinely thrived in that role.

It is something akin to the NFL’s quarterback controversy—should head coach Tom Thibodeau consider switch in his frontcourt rotation?

Gibson has been the anchor of the Bulls’ second unit for the last five seasons. He started off as a defensive stalwart and has gradually put together a respectable offensive repertoire. The former USC Trojan was slated to crack the first unit until veteran Pau Gasol was signed. Despite the lost starting opportunity, he continued to flourish as his team’s blue-collar player.

Mirotic was more than serviceable while Gibson convalesced. The 6’10” versatile forward averaged a stellar 20.8 points and 8.2 rebounds per game between February 28 and March 19. His predecessor returned for the March 20 contest against the Toronto Raptors but was used sparingly. That didn’t break the young Montenegrin’ stride; he scored 29 points and pulled down 11 rebounds.

It’s an interesting postulation. On one hand, there is a player who has consistently served the team well as a bench player. On the other hand, there is a youngster who has exceeded expectations and demonstrated he can be a significant contributor. Should a coach choose the tried-and-true option, or should he select the high upside?

By comparing and contrasting various statistical data, it will be decided if a rotational change is in the best interest of this club.

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Head-to-head

There are a couple of ways to use these players’ statistics to analyze who fits better as the primary frontcourt reserve. Let’s start with the basic cumulative stat line:

	MIN	PPG	FG%	FT%	OREB	DREB	REB	BLK	STL	AST
Taj Gibson	28.1	10.5	49.3	70.8	2.8	3.8	6.5	1.2	0.6	1.3
Nikola Mirotic	19.5	9.5	40.7	80.1	0.8	4.2	4.9	0.7	0.6	1.1

At a glance it looks like the advantage tilts in favor of Gibson. The six-year veteran has the edge in points, field-goal percentage, rebounds and blocks. Those last two categories go a long way on a Thibodeau-coached team, but if the numbers are looked at in terms of production on per-minute basis, the spotlight shifts.

When the number of points scored and rebounds accumulated is divided into the number of minutes played, Mirotic scores a point every 2.1 minutes and secures a missed shot every four minutes. Gibson contributes offensively every 2.7 minutes and rebounds every 4.3 minutes during his allotment. The efficiency slightly favors the rookie even though the more experienced player has the quantitative advantage.

That edge is not a decisive one, though. Mirotic’s numbers have been helped by his high production during Gibson’s absence. In an effort to level the playing field, a new angle of observation is needed. Applying their performances to a per-36-minutes paradigm does the trick as neither player regularly logs that much playing time. Their projections within that frame of reference shed more light on the effectiveness of their productivity.

Per-36	PPG	OREB	DREB	REB	BLK	STL	AST
Taj Gibson	13.6	3.6	4.9	8.5	1.6	0.7	1.6
Nikola Mirotic	17.5	1.4	7.7	9.1	1.3	1.1	2.1

Here, Gibson holds a significant advantage in the offensive rebounding category, but that’s where the positives end for him. Mirotic is near even in blocks and leads in every other set. The former Euroleague star’s play during the month of March validates this model as he has logged an average of 32.1 minutes while producing 21.5 points and 8.5 rebounds.

Whether it’s by-the-minute production or the per-36 hypothetical, it looks like Mirotic should be the new sixth man for Thibodeau and company. The young man has made a valid case for himself going forward, but is that enough to make such a big leap in the rotation’s hierarchy?

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The Solution

Simply put, Mirotic should not replace Gibson in the rotation; however, he has earned the opportunity for more playing time for however much longer the Bulls’ season is.

Thibodeau’s old-school approach to rookies is still effective. One only has to look at Jimmy Butler and Tony Snell as evidence that development is happening even if first-year playing time is scarce. But unlike those aforementioned guys, Mirotic has shown he can handle the weight. This is not a case of being unsure of the talent. The immensity of its potential has been demonstrated and needs to be utilized.

Gibson should not be supplanted though because the playoffs are fast approaching. He may not be as offensively gifted, but he is still a better one-on-one defender who can also give some quality time at the center position. Most importantly, Gibson is battle-tested. Intangibles go a long way in the playoffs, and he has them in spades.

Mirotic cans still be an asset in the postseason. Thibodeau can utilize the young forward to create matchup problems and space the floor. An increase in consistent playing time would also mean more relief for the frontcourt starters. The team may be giving up some defending prowess, but the rebounding would not suffer and the offense would benefit tremendously.

If NBA head coaches could choose their problems, too much depth might be one that they don’t mind taking on as a burden; however, even that can be a headache. Mirotic has shown that he does not deserve to languish at the end of the bench in the name of character building. He should be on the floor to the tune of at least 20 minutes per game. Taking the last few weeks into consideration, it has become that much harder to deny him the chance to play.

All statistics current as of Friday, March 20, 2015.