Envisioning the New-Look Buffalo Bills Offense in 2015

During his time as the defensive coordinator for the Baltimore Ravens and the head coach of the New York Jets, Rex Ryan has developed a reputation as one of the NFL's top defensive minds.

However, since Ryan took the reins of the Buffalo Bills, it's the been the offense that's been given the buzz-saw treatment.

Player	Position	Age
Charles Clay	TE	26
Tyrod Taylor	QB	25
Percy Harvin	WR	26
LeSean McCoy*	RB	26
Richie Incognito	OG	31

That makeover continued on Thursday. As Chris Wesseling of NFL.com reports, the Miami Dolphins decided not to match Buffalo's five-year, $38 million offer to free-agent tight end Charles Clay.

As Wesseling points out, the acquisition of the 26-year-old continues a complete overhaul of the Bills' offensive talent:

"

In Clay, the Bills have landed a versatile H-back, capable of lining up in the backfield as a lead-blocker for recently acquired All-Pro tailback LeSean McCoy in coordinator Greg Roman's power-running attack.

Also a mismatch in the passing game, Clay was a surprise addition to NFL Network's Top 100 Players of 2014 list after producing 69 receptions for 759 and seven total touchdowns in a breakout 2013 season.

In addition to Clay and McCoy, the aggressive Bills also signed uniquely talented game-breaker Percy Harvin. Throw in reliable possession receiver Robert Woods and explosive 2014 first-round draft pick Sammy Watkins, and Buffalo has stockpiled the AFC East's most imposing arsenal of skill-position talent.

"

But, what's the end result of that moving and shaking? How exactly will this "new-look" Bills offense look when Buffalo takes the field for the first time in September?

Well, I'm glad you asked.

OK, so I asked. Let's not get hung up on details.

Quarterback

With veteran Kyle Orton (who started 12 games for the Bills in 2014) calling it a career, one of Ryan's first decisions as head coach was whether to hand the reins to third-year pro EJ Manuel or bring in a veteran to compete with Manuel in 2015.

It didn't take long for Ryan to make up his mind.

As ESPN.com's Mike Rodak reported, the Bills acquired veteran signal-caller Matt Cassel, who started three games for the Minnesota Vikings in 2014, in a swap of Day 3 draft picks.

Years	GS	Comp. %	PYPG	TD	INT	Rating	W/L
10	71	59.0	172.8	96	70	80.1	33-38

The 32-year-old Cassel, who is now on his fourth NFL team, told Rodak he looks forward to battling Manuel for the starting job in training camp:

"

I think I’ve been in this league long enough to know that you’ve got to compete in everything that you do. You know, you have to earn every opportunity you get, so I know there’s going to be competition.

I know that EJ’s here, and he’s a young, talented player. I expect that there’s going to be a competition. Again, you have to go out and earn your opportunity to play in this league.

"

Ryan and general manager Doug Whaley weren't done. New Buffalo offensive coordinator Greg Roman had more than a little success with the zone read in San Francisco, so the Bills added a mobile young quarterback in Tyrod Taylor.

According to Chris Wesseling of NFL.com, Taylor turned down more money from the Denver Broncos in favor of the opportunity to start for the Bills:

"There is going to be a competition. No one is really ahead of the other guy right now. They're looking forward to us coming in and pushing each other to make this team better."

Ryan, for his part, told CJCR (via Wesseling) that he's been trying to get Taylor on his team for some time:

"

I actually tried to trade for (Taylor) when I was with the Jets. If he's not the fastest quarterback in the league, he's certainly up there with them. He's got great run skills. I'm not gonna say he's Russell Wilson, but he's got a little of that in him, where he's able to run zone-reads and pull the ball down and be effective.

"

Make no mistake. The most important position in the NFL remains the Bills' Achilles' heel on offense. Cassel wasn't a worldbeater under center on his best day, and he hasn't been effective as a starter since throwing 27 touchdown passes against only seven interceptions for the Kansas City Chiefs back in 2010.

Manuel, on the other hand, struggled mightily as a rookie before losing the starting job to Orton last year. The next time Taylor starts an NFL game will be the first.

Ryan insisted to Chris Brown of the team's website that no player has the inside track in this battle:

"

It’s going to be open. It’s a competition and whoever earns the job will be the guy that’s out there. We have some talented guys and we’ll see what happens. You bring in a veteran like Matt Cassel. He’s done some pretty good things in this league. He’s got that veteran presence about him.

With EJ back there just going into his third year I really believe EJ is going to improve with his fundamentals having (quarterbacks coach) David Lee here. I love the fact that he’s a gym rat and he’s smart. With our offense being multiple we’ll be able to get out of bad plays, so the mental part of it all of the quarterbacks we have should be able to handle that.

With Taylor that’s going to be a young man, he’s probably the fastest quarterback in the league. He’s explosive running the zone reads, and we’ll see where he’s at. Then Tuel. We’ve got guys there to work with. That’ll be the important thing. There will be competition, but a person has to earn the job. It hasn’t been handed to somebody.

"

Those comments aside, the Bills would no doubt prefer to see Manuel take the next step (or two), step up and become the player the team thought they were drafting in the first round two years ago.

However, while this is a competition that may well drag on through the summer and into the fall, most of the early scuttlebutt favors Cassel as the team's Week 1 starter.

Whether that's a good thing or a bad one remains up for debate.

Running Backs

The first big step in the Bills' offensive overhaul began all the way back on March 3. That's when Sal Maiorana of The Democrat and Chronicle reported the Bills had agreed to send linebacker Kiko Alonso to the Philadelphia Eagles in exchange for running back LeSean McCoy.

Year	Att.	Yards	Avg.	TD	Rec.	Yards	TD
2009	155	637	4.1	4	40	308	0
2010	207	1080	5.2	7	78	592	2
2011	273	1309	4.8	17	48	315	3
2012	200	840	4.2	2	54	373	3
2013	314	1607	5.1	9	52	539	2
2014	312	1319	4.2	5	28	155	0

After pacing the NFL with over 1,600 yards on the ground two years ago. McCoy's production slipped last year. His yardage per carry was down almost a full yard, and McCoy's 155 receiving yards in 2014 was easily a career low.

Still, McCoy's 1,319 rushing yards in 2014 were only 163 yards less than the Bills had—as a team.

Given that, and Ryan's comments (per Maiorana) about the Bills' run game when he took the job, it's hardly a surprise that the team was looking for an upgrade in the backfield.

"Are we going to do ground and pound?" Ryan said. "Yeah. You're darn right we are."

The acquisition of McCoy spelled the end of the line for C.J. Spiller in Western New York, but as things stand today, the rest of the Bills' backs from 2014 will return this season.

Player	Att.	Yards	Avg.	TD
Fred Jackson	141	525	3.7	2
Anthony Dixon	105	432	4.1	2
CJ Spiller	78	300	3.8	0
Bryce Brown	36	126	3.6	0

What isn't going to be back, at least in the opinion of former All-Pro tailback (and current NFL Network analyst) LaDainian Tomlinson, is the committee attack that saw no Buffalo back top 150 carries in 2014:

"

(Ryan is) going to get Shady the ball any way that he possibly can. He's going to utilize all of the assets that Shady McCoy brings to a team. That means running screen routes, possibly lining him out on the outside and create mismatches. They're going to try to get this guy the ball as much as possible.

We all know that Rex Ryan leans on that run game; that's what he wants to do. He wants to control the pace of the game with the run game. This guy, LeSean McCoy has proven that he can do that. I think it's going to be a perfect marriage with LeSean McCoy and Rex Ryan.

"

It's going to be an interesting marriage to watch unfold. Roman's offense in San Francisco involved a lot of banging between the tackles. On many plays there were lead blockers (be it a fullback, H-back or tight end) to follow.

It's going to be interesting to see how that meshes with McCoy's running style, as he's long been known as a back who likes to stretch plays out or kick them outside as he searches for a hole.

It's also going to be intriguing to see just how much the Bills ride McCoy. In the ageless Fred Jackson, Bryce Brown (who played behind McCoy in Philly) and Anthony Dixon, the Bills have one of the NFL's deeper RB corps. And after signing McCoy to a new five-year, $40 million extension, it would appear to behoove the Bills to manage his touches where possible.

Whether that will happen remains to be seen, but this much we know. This year's stable of backs in Buffalo (at least on paper) looks light-years better than the unit that averaged only 3.6 yards a carry in 2014.

Acquiring a top-10 running back will do that.

Wide Receivers

The Bills actually started revamping their receiving corps a year ago, when they traded up in the 2014 NFL draft to select Clemson wide receiver Sammy Watkins.

That move panned out. Watkins came up just short of 1,000 receiving yards in his first NFL season, averaging a healthy 15.1 yards per catch and finding the end zone six times.

This spring the task became finding Watkins some running mates. The Bills accomplished that goal just as they have with just about every other move they've made in 2015.

Splashily. (I can't believe spell check let me have that one)

As Ted Leshinski of CBS Sports wrote, the Bills signed free-agent wide receiver Percy Harvin to a three-year, $24 million contract. The final two years of that deal are voidable, meaning that essentially the 26-year-old is playing on a one-year "prove it" deal.

It was a signing that met with Watkins' approval:

Harvin's acquisition also met with the approval of Gregg Rosenthal of NFL.com, who hailed it as one of the better signings of free agency:

"

The price was right, and the fit is even better. Buffalo's offensive coordinator Greg Roman is creative, and has a ton of versatile weapons to use: Harvin, LeSean McCoy, Sammy Watkins, and Charles Clay. We love Harvin's fit in an offense that should focus on short passing and finding mismatches.

Harvin knows he has hit a career crossroads. If he wants another big long-term contract, he will need to produce this season. Buffalo got a Pro Bowl talent at a bargain price.

"

However, it's hardly a "can't miss" signing. The Bills mark Harvin's fourth team in as many years. The seventh-year pro has never topped 1,000 receiving yards in a season, has hit 1,000 total yards only once and hasn't even amassed 800 total yards in a season since 2011.

Year	Team	Rec.	Yards	Avg.	TD	RYards	TD
2009	MIN	60	790	13.2	6	135	0
2010	MIN	71	868	12.2	5	107	1
2011	MIN	87	967	11.1	6	345	2
2012	MIN	62	677	10.9	3	96	1
2013	SEA	1	17	17.0	0	0	0
2014	SEA/NYJ	51	483	9.6	1	202	1

When Harvin's healthy and his head's in the game, he can be one of the most dangerous players in the entire NFL with a football in his hand. However, the occasions where that's happened of late have been increasingly fewer and farther between.

However, the same potential the Bills saw with Harvin will motivate opposing defenses to account for him. That means (in theory) more single coverage for Watkins and the forgotten Robert Woods, who was himself a second-round pick back in 2013.

It's a solid group of young receivers. And they are young, with Harvin the grandpa of the group at the ripe old age of 26.

Now if they can just get a quarterback to put the ball in their general vicinity.

Tight Ends

As I mentioned in the intro, Clay is Buffalo's latest acquisition. As ESPN.com's James Walker reports, the Bills literally made Clay an offer the Miami Dolphins had to refuse:

"

The Bills front-loaded the contract and added a cap hit of about $12 million in 2016, according to a league source.

This helped make Miami's decision easy, as that is the year the Dolphins will be paying big cap charges for Pro Bowl defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh and most likely players with expiring contracts such as quarterback Ryan Tannehill, center Mike Pouncey and defensive end Olivier Vernon.

"

It's a big gamble. Sure, the fifth-year veteran emerged over the past two seasons as a valuable starter for the Dolphins, but Clay hasn't posted top-five numbers to go with that top-five paycheck. In fact, Clay has yet to catch even 70 passes or top 800 receiving yards in a season.

Year	Rec.	Yards	Avg.	TD
2011	16	233	14.6	3
2012	18	212	11.8	2
2013	69	759	11.0	6
2014	58	605	10.4	3

However, as Robert Quinn of Bills Mafia (no group of fans in the NFL with a better nickname) pointed out, there just might be a method to Whaley's madness in this regard:

"

Tight ends have had an increased role in the passing game across the NFL in recent years, but the position is loaded with players of all different shapes, sizes and skill sets. Pretty much every offense at every level of football utilizes the traditional “Y” tight end- the big 6’6” 265-pounder that lines up attached to the line of scrimmage and is used as a blocker or a receiver. Think Scott Chandler.

Now, some offenses are taking tight ends that are faster and more agile than a “Y” but stand only around 6’2” , 230-240 pounds and are using them as an “F” tight end, or “H-Back.”

The “F” is a versatile player that’s moved all across the offensive formations- from the traditional tight end spot, to alongside the quarterback in the pistol, at fullback, or even as a wide receiver.

The “F” needs to be capable of both lead blocking and pulling in the run game, in addition to serving as a receiver in the passing game. Bruce Miller was extremely effective as “F” tight end for Greg Roman with the 49ers.

"

Simply put, a player with Clay's skill set is perfect for that role in Roman's offense. Clay has extensive experience lining up all over the formation, including in the backfield. His run blocking has improved steadily, to the point that Clay ranked a very respectable 11th at his position in that regard in 2014 at Pro Football Focus.

Criticize the size of the deal if you wish, but in Clay the Bills got a player whose versatility and blocking acumen would appear an ideal fit for Roman's system. Better yet, Clay affords Roman something he didn't have in the Bay Area.

A Bruce Miller-type with the athleticism to also make a sizable dent catching the football.

Offensive Line

The Bills' woes at quarterback may have hogged most of the headlines of late, but over the past couple of years, Buffalo's offensive line hasn't made the team's job any easier. The running backs either, for that matter.

Two years ago, the Bills were average at run blocking and horrific in pass protection. It showed, as the Bills were second in the league in rushing but 28th in passing offense.

Year	FO vs. Run	FO vs. Pass	PFF vs. Run	PFF vs. Pass
2013	16	29	25	12
2014	26	19	32	22

Last year, that script was flipped. According to Football Outsiders, the Bills ranked a so-so 19th in the NFL in pass protection but fell all the way to 26th in run blocking. Pro Football Focus was even less kind, ranking the Bills as the NFL's worst run-blocking team in 2014.

Sure enough, Buffalo failed to finish in the top half of the NFL in either passing or rushing offense.

In an effort to improve the team's numbers, the winds of change have hit the Bills' front five as well.

Position	Player	Age	2014 PFF Rank
LT	Cordy Glenn	25	26
LG	Chris Williams	29	110
C	Eric Wood	29	49
RG	Richie Incognito	31	N/A
RT	Seantrel Henderson	23	140

The biggest change comes courtesy of Roman's arrival. Under former head coach (and supposed offensive line guru) Doug Marrone, the Bills ran a zone-blocking scheme. Players are assigned spots, not defenders. Quickness and lateral agility are at a premium, often making smaller linemen a better fit.

A fit that just wasn't there in Buffalo.

As Quinn wrote, the schemes they are a-changing under Roman:

"

Roman will implement a gap, or man-blocking scheme, that will get the offensive linemen blocking vertically downfield, rather than horizontally, as a zone-scheme does.

With massive, powerful athletes such as Cordy Glenn, Seantrel Henderson, Richie Incognito and youngsters in Cyrus Kouandjio and Cyril Richardson, the Bills are better suited for a scheme that allows them to come off the ball and hit someone, instead of moving laterally and “getting in the way” of a defender.

"

Yes, you read that right—Richie Incognito.

After missing the entire 2014 season and half the year before amid the fallout from the bullying scandal that rocked the Dolphins, Ryan and the Bills decided to offer the 31-year-old Incognito a chance to revive his NFL career.

However, Ryan also cautioned that there won't be any nonsense while speaking with Michael David Smith of Pro Football Talk:

"

He’ll be on a very short leash. But again I think that’s something he embraces. I don’t think he’s going to have those issues he’s had in the past. I certainly don’t believe he will and he doesn’t either.

We wouldn’t have brought him into our organization if we didn’t feel that he could be a positive guy, not just in our locker room but in the community as well.

"

Make no mistake, the Bills didn't sign Incognito for altruistic reasons. The ninth-year veteran may not be a nice person, but he was a top-25 guard, per PFF, when last we saw him on the playing field.

So What Does it All Mean?

Listen, I would love to be able to sit here and offer you a detailed, blow-by-blow account of exactly how all the new faces in Western New York will impact the Bills offense.

The problem is, that's a pretty tall order when you don't know who the starting quarterback is going to be, especially when you have a competition involving three players with such different skill sets.

If Cassel does wind up the Week 1 starter, it's likely that we'll see more than a few West Coast elements in the offense—short passes focused on getting the ball in the hands of Watkins and Harvin in space.

If Taylor surprises and wins the job, we could see more than a little of the zone-read elements that Roman had so much success with in San Francisco in 2013. A Manuel-led offense would probably fall somewhere on the Cassel side of in between the two.

In any event we're sure to see a lot of McCoy. As Brad Evans of Yahoo Sports reports, the Jets averaged over 31 rushing attempts per game the past three seasons, an eye-popping number in today's pass-wacky NFL.

But McCoy can't do it by himself. Sure, the Bills' flurry of acquisitions at the skill positions look great in a vacuum. They're the sort of moves that inject enthusiasm into a fanbase.

And after a playoff drought that extends back well over a decade, the Bills Mafia can use all of that they can get.

However, at the end of the day a star running back is of little use if the line fails to open holes. The best receivers in the world aren't going to help if the quarterback can't get them the ball.

And therein lies the key. If one of Buffalo's signal-callers can emerge as even an "OK" starter, the skill-position talent would certainly appear to be there. A large part of that emergence is going to be dependent on the line improving under Roman in 2015.

Accomplish those two goals and what Ryan told reporters in his introductory press conference, per Dan Hanzus of NFL.com, may have been more than just Rex being Rex:

"

I'm not going to let our fans down. I'm not going to do that. I know it's been 15 years since the Bills made the playoffs. Well, get ready man. We're going. We are going. The guarantee? Hey, am I going to guarantee a Super Bowl? I tell you what I will do, I will guarantee the pursuit of it.

"

If they don't, then this will all have been much ado about nothing, all that spending will have been for naught and for all that things have changed in Buffalo the more they'll stay the same in 2015.

Gary Davenport is an NFL Analyst at Bleacher Report and a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association and the Pro Football Writers of America. You can follow Gary on Twitter at @IDPManor.