Predicting Washington Redskins Starting Lineup After the 1st Wave of Free Agency
A younger, quicker defensive line and a partly retooled secondary are what the first wave of free agency brought the Washington Redskins. Thankfully, both of these needed to be included in 2015's starting lineup.
A defense ranked 30th in points allowed and 24th against the pass last season has rightly undergone an overhaul. The changes in personnel, especially those up front, reflect a necessary shift in philosophy.
Yet for all the fine work adding to the front seven, Washington stood pat with the same offensive line that surrendered 58 sacks in 2014. Putting that group in front of a quarterback rotation that's just as muddled as last season leaves little doubt about where this team's obvious weaknesses lie.
Unfortunately, those deficiencies could once again undermine a cast of skill-position playmakers that's on a par with any in the NFL.
Find out how things are shaping up for the Redskins on both sides of the ball now the first wave of free agency is in the books.
Quarterback
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He wouldn't be my choice. He may not even be yours. He probably isn't head coach Jay Gruden's preferred choice.
But for all the issues surrounding Robert Griffin III, he's still set to enter a fourth season as Washington's starter under center. Whether he's pulling the strings on this one or not, it was Gruden who declared Griffin will get the nod in 2015, per Mike Jones of The Washington Post:
"We’ll go into the season with Robert as the No. 1 guy obviously, and it’s up to Robert to continue to grow and mature as a quarterback and a person and moving forward, we just want to see some improvement. That’s up to us as a staff to get more out of him.
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Gruden's last line is significant. It speaks to the central issue this team faces between coach and quarterback. Specifically, will the coach build his system around what Griffin can and can't do, or will the quarterback be forced to adapt to a scheme imposed on him?
Former starting free safety Ryan Clark saw this conflict play out firsthand last season. He pinpointed where he believes the blame should lie during an interview on ESPN's First Take (h/t Scott Allen of The Washington Post):
"When you give up what you gave to get an RGIII at a No. 2 pick, you make things work for him. You don’t make him change his game to fit what you want to do. And I think that’s where Jay Gruden went wrong last year."
Of course, that's easier said than done. Griffin's primary attribute is his dual-threat skill. At least it was before a pair of serious injuries diminished his mobility.
The process of modifying a natural read-option quarterback into a more traditional, pro-style passer was inevitable at some point. But there's no doubt it's been enforced ahead of time on both player and team.
What's tricky is refining the mechanics of an athletic marvel without taking away his natural big-play potential. That's not easy for Gruden or any coach, not when Griffin is blighted with so many core issues.
Holding onto the ball for too long is a major problem. It stems from a struggle to read defenses. To some, that serves as an indictment of Griffin's football IQ.
But in truth, this issue is as much one of temperament. Griffin has an instinctive, almost frenzied desire to hit the long ball on every play.
Some quarterbacks have a gift for settling for what a defense gives them. Others have to be taught. Griffin clearly belongs in the latter bracket.
That's why hiring Matt Cavanaugh as quarterbacks coach could turn out to be one of the best moves Washington has made this offseason. His rich history mentoring young quarterbacks, mobile quarterbacks and with the West Coast offense will surely benefit Griffin.
Of course, that's assuming he's receptive to the teaching. Granted, at this stage of his career, Griffin should know he's short of fresh chances and needs to make the most of the help around him.
But the process won't be determined by Griffin alone. If Gruden's willing to declare Griffin his starter, then he must fully commit to making him better.
That means really working with Griffin, really crafting an offense designed to make the young quarterback's life easier. It doesn't mean simply tolerating Griffin until a few high-profile mistakes make it easier to justify introducing either Kirk Cousins or Colt McCoy.
For this team to win with Griffin taking the snaps, coach and quarterback meeting each other halfway will be as important as the scheme and supporting cast.
Running Back
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Even after three 1,000-yard seasons, Alfred Morris seems like a running back entering the season under pressure. It's a pressure borne from proposed tweaks to the ground scheme that's made the former sixth-round pick an instant hit in the pros.
Both Gruden and new general manager Scot McCloughan have expressed preferences for more power-based blocking. Those preferences help explain the arrival of new line coach Bill Callahan.
What it means for Morris is proving that he's more than merely a product of the famed Shanahan stretch-style zone scheme. Fortunately, there are reasons to believe No. 46 can still be as effective as ever.
For one thing, he can thrive between the tackles. Gruden took some advantage of that talent in 2014 by including more I-formation looks and power concepts up front.
It's also worth noting that the team's signature zone stretch runs aren't as effective as they were two years ago. Opponents have become adept at filling the cutback lanes with blitzes through the middle.
Meanwhile, D-linemen have started to attack downhill to get behind laterally shifting blockers. It also doesn't help that Washington's front five is routinely dominated along the interior.
Yet, even with the problems up front and the tweaks to the schemes, Morris' success could really hinge on another factor. Specifically, how often Gruden gives him the ball.
Morris is a true workhorse, one who establishes a rhythm through repetition. This is a 20-30 carries-a-game back, not one who will flourish when he gets the ball less than 15 times, the way Morris was limited in seven games last season.
Regardless of the quicksand at quarterback or the marquee game-breakers in the passing game, Morris is still the strength of this offense. Getting him the ball more often should be at the top of Gruden's to-do list for 2015.
Of course, he barely has a choice when scanning the depth chart. Last season's undrafted rookie Silas Redd showed some promise despite very limited opportunities. But his body of work isn't enough to believe he can suddenly carry the load.
Then there's brittle, pint-sized speedster Chris Thompson. He's never had the frame or the skills of a primary ball-carrier.
The decision not to opt for a supporting veteran runner during the early stages of free agency was certainly a surprise.
Fullback
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Morris' task can be made a lot easier if Gruden simply features Darrel Young more often. He's one of the best fullbacks in football, but also perhaps the most tragically underused.
Young is a punishing lead-blocker, a skill that should have greater importance if the ground scheme is really going to feature more power plays between the tackles. Young could be the key to the modified rushing attack.
But that needn't be the end of his value. The 27-year-old is also a very underrated runner in his own right. In particular, he has a real knack for short-yardage situations near the goal line.
Yet it's Young's receiving skills that really merit more pages in the playbook. As a backfield receiver with sure hands and big-play potential after the catch, Young is the ideal safety valve for a quarterback who needs to trust his checkdowns more often.
In today's game, most offenses love to flood the field with multiple-receiver sets or flex "move" tight ends into the backfield to manipulate defenses. Those factors are chiefly responsible for the decline of the fullback position.
But a current trend should count for nothing when a team boasts a fullback this flexible and talented.
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Wide Receiver
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DeSean Jackson looked like a luxury signing when the Redskins pounced on him last offseason. But there was nothing frivolous about the 1,169 receiving yards and six touchdowns he tallied in 2014.
Jackson wasted no time overtaking Pierre Garcon as this team's go-to receiver. It's a frustrating transition for some considering Garcon is a catch machine who can make plays at every level of coverage.
But Jackson's ascension is actually fitting with this coach and his offense. He's the burner Gruden makes the focal point of his passing attack.
It's what he did with A.J. Green while running the offense for the Cincinnati Bengals. Gruden did the same for Jackson last season.
Griffin also needs a field-stretching game-breaker. It's the only way to maximize one of the quarterback's main attributes: His absolute rocket of an arm.
Jackson is the best deep threat in football, but the challenge now is to take more advantage of what that threat does to defenses. That should be the cue for Garcon to feature more often underneath.
The sturdy pass-catcher is a physical force once he takes the ball on the run across the middle. Gruden has to include more plays that emphasize that niche skill.
For all his faults, previous offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan designed some wonderful middle screens to set Garcon free. Gruden needs a few more of those in his playbook.
Garcon has been talked about as possible trade bait after a drop in production last season. Real Redskins blogger Rich Tandler examined the case from both sides:
"The $15 million in cap space they would save by trading Garçon could carry over and go towards resigning the likes of Ryan Kerrigan and Trent Williams. Why not deal Garçon to a team that believes it is close to contending for a Super Bowl and get money and a draft pick to build your future?
On the other hand, the Redskins also will need a quarterback if they are going to make annual playoff runs. It just might be worth the investment to keep Garçon on board to help with the development of Robert Griffin III (or whoever is taking snaps) and to perhaps make the team more watchable while the rebuilding is going on.
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Even with a talented receiver like Andre Roberts also on the roster, the Redskins would be smart to keep Garcon around a little while longer. He may need to adapt his game to become more of a foil for Jackson, but they are a potentially devastatingly potent combination few defenses will be able to shackle.
Of course, the situation at quarterback needs to calm in order for Washington to see the benefit from its star double act on the outside.
Tight End
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In one of his smarter moves in free agency, McCloughan brought back Niles Paul. It ensured tight end remains one of the strongest positions on the roster.
Picking a clear, day-one starter between Paul and Jordan Reed isn't easy. But it needn't be much of an issue.
Reed is more athletically gifted. His speed, smart route running, leaping ability and good hands make him a true matchup nightmare. But perhaps the real nightmare is this coverage-beating "Joker's" inability to stay healthy.
He's missed 12 game since being drafted in the third round in 2013. Reed's injuries last season opened the door for Paul, an opportunity he certainly seized.
What followed was a career year for the converted wide receiver and valuable special teams demon. Paul has the same move skills Reed possesses, and Gruden certainly wasn't short of ways to set him free in 2014.
The starting role won't be clearly defined between these two. Instead, expect Gruden and offensive coordinator Sean McVay to rotate the pair, as well as find various ways to get them both in the same formation.
Offensive Line
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It's easy to be at once appalled and understanding about Washington's decision not to add to a woeful offense line during free agency. Obviously, not supplementing a fragile group with extra talent represents a major risk.
This line resembled landing lights guiding pass-rushers to the quarterback in 2014. The group even lost its way blocking for the run, once an obvious strength. The Redskins ranked 14th in yards-per-carry average with 4.2 per rush.
While those factors seem like enough to send any team sprinting into the veteran market for available linemen, fiscal prudence has been a feature of Washington's approach to this offseason.
Free-agent blockers really don't come cheap, and McCloughan has been watching the pennies during this market. So he was never really likely to pay the premium required for O-linemen in today's pass-first league.
That means the predraft starting lineup in the trenches looks the same as last season. Left tackle Trent Williams has firmly established his Pro Bowl credentials, and hopefully left guard Shawn Lauvao will enjoy a better second season in D.C.
Like Williams, center Kory Lichtensteiger is the closest thing this roster has to a dependable lineman. He's not the powerhouse the new schemes may need at center, but Lichtensteiger is still a useful pivot man.
As usual, though, serious doubts persist about the right side. McCloughan re-signed Tom Compton, and at the moment he's the de facto starter.
Next to him, for reasons beyond all understanding, aging, lightweight guard Chris Chester continues his Houdini-style escape act to avoid this team's trapdoor.
What the Redskins really need is for 2014 third-round picks Spencer Long and Morgan Moses to prove their talent and win jobs. That won't be easy for Moses as he rehabs from a serious Lisfranc injury.
Washington took a chance overlooking this position during free agency's first wave. What it's done is increase the pressure on McCloughan to find help in the draft.
Ignoring the group again will require some deft justification.
Defensive Line
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It's all change here, and rightfully so. McCloughan wisely cut the cord to make veterans Stephen Bowen and Barry Cofield Jr. necessary cap casualties.
But that decision wasn't just about saving money. It was also made to clear the way for different linemen, trench warriors who fit a more proactive, one-gap-style 3-4.
That explains the decision to pluck Ricky Jean Francois off the waiver wire and add Stephen Paea during the early hours of free agency. Both are natural defensive tackles most adept at shading into single gaps.
Paea is an intriguing addition. He boasts enticing core pass-rush skills honed during years in 4-3 schemes. He's going to be tasked with getting upfield from both end and tackle in new coordinator Joe Barry's hybrid 3-4, per ESPN Redskins reporter John Keim.
In this context, the 6'1", 300-pounder could form a particularly destructive double act with Jason Hatcher. Both are defined by their ability to split gaps and pressure the backfield.
Paea and Hatcher will lend both the base and nickel fronts the option to rush just four and drop seven into coverage. That's a route to creating more big plays, as well as limiting the number of times yards are surrendered in chunks, two obvious priorities for Barry's D in 2015.
That's the theory at least. The reason for cautious optimism comes from how well a line bloated with pass-rushers will stand up to the run. Neither Paea nor Hatcher have ever been particularly strong in this area.
That thinking must have been behind the decision to recruit mammoth nose tackle Terrance Knighton. In one of the best moves any team has made during free agency, the Redskins acquired an obvious focal point for their run defense.
Knighton is a sumo-style space-eater who will tie up the interior of offensive lines. He's going to force runners to go lateral, where penetration from Hatcher or Paea, along with the pursuit of linebackers, should snuff out a ground attack.
While you need a leap of faith to believe Paea will be an instant hit in a 3-4, or that Hatcher will rebound from a disappointing first season in D.C., you can take it for granted that Knighton will do his job.
Francois will join Chris Baker to provide depth, with the other spots likely filled by Kedric Golston and Frank Kearse. The latter has the rush skills to suit the new system.
A new-look defense required different skills up front. McCloughan used free agency to find them.
While it's dangerous to gush over this defense before a game has been played, it's certainly easy to welcome the changes and new faces.
Linebackers
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Free agency created one obvious hole in the linebacker corps when Brian Orakpo jumped ship to the Tennessee Titans. Even if Orakpo might have received a light shove off the plank, his exit still means the Redskins lost a highly capable pass-rusher.
Oddly enough though, Washington's D may be able to withstand that loss thanks to the increased pressure potential from the line. It also helps that Ryan Kerrigan has steadily developed into a true star at his position.
Given his commitment to his craft and natural flair for playmaking, there's little reason to worry the 13.5 sacks Kerrigan notched in 2014 will be a one-off.
But the other outside linebacker spot remains in flux. McCloughan passed on the likes of Pernell McPhee, Jabaal Sheard and Brandon Graham on the open market.
Perhaps he really is keen on one of the host of rush ends available in the 2015 NFL draft. That's something prevalent in the latest mock drafts.
Walter Football's Walter Cherepinsky has Washington taking Clemson edge-rushing sensation Vic Beasley fifth overall. A quartet of NFL.com analysts, including ex-Redskins GM Charley Casserly, have McCloughan tabbing either Randy Gregory or Shane Ray.
It's also possible this team trusts 2014 second-rounder Trent Murphy to come good. He's certainly got the hybrid skills to suit the new direction the defense is ready to take.
Yet with little in the way of dependable depth, it would be a surprise to see Washington resist adding to this position. With options now perilously short in free agency, that again puts the draft firmly in focus.
At least things are a little more settled on the inside. That's where potential breakout star Keenan Robinson plies his trade.
The all-action ace should be the most grateful person at Redskins Park for the addition of Knighton. With a nose guard who will keep blockers off him, Robinson can enjoy a brilliant season, provided he stays healthy.
Knighton's arrival will hopefully also key an improvement from active but impact-shy Perry Riley Jr. He needs it after a dismal 2014 campaign.
Just like on the outside, depth in the middle is lacking. It would've been great to see McCloughan pluck a veteran like Curtis Lofton off the market.
As things stand though, any further help will have to come from the collegiate ranks.
Secondary
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It was great to see the Redskins add a cornerback in free agency. With all the talk of safety troubles, it's sometimes been easy to forget this secondary can be just as vulnerable on the outside.
It certainly was in 2014, mostly because DeAngelo Hall tore his Achilles and David Amerson took a major step back.
The latter should find himself replaced as a starter by new arrival Chris Culliver. McCloughan needed a corner, but he certainly took a chance when he gave Culliver $32 million over four years.
That's a hefty amount for a player with a recent history of trouble off the field, as well as one who tore his ACL in 2013.
In fairness though, the former San Francisco 49ers ball hawk did play at a very high level in 2014. Now he must prove he can justify a starring role and a big deal.
Culliver could find himself tested often if last season's rookie find Bashaud Breeland continues to develop at a rapid pace. A fourth-round pick a year ago, Breeland showed no fear as he scrapped with some of the game's best receivers.
His tenacious style is certainly welcome in a secondary that's been too soft on receivers during recent seasons. If Breeland stays focused, he has legitimate shutdown potential.
That leaves Hall and Amerson to duke it out for the slot corner role. The former should get it after being competent there during the 2012 season.
Amerson represents a better conversion project to free safety than does Hall, thanks to his size and need to keep the game in front of him.
Speaking of safety, it remains a huge question mark. McCloughan has tried to go some way to answering the problem by adding Jeron Johnson.
He started just one game in four seasons with the Seattle Seahawks while sitting behind stellar pair Kam Chancellor and Earl Thomas. However, Fox Sports' Mike Garafolo believes Johnson has "starter potential."
The player himself is not short on confidence about his ability to make the leap. He told Redskins Nation host Larry Michael (h/t CSN Washington reporter Tarik El-Bashir): “I’m an all around player. I can play free safety, strong safety. But hitting is part of my game. I’m a physical player. I plan on delivering the blow.”
Johnson's versatility and physicality will certainly be welcome at a perennial Achilles' heel. But it would also make a lot of sense for this team to add a few more bodies at this spot.
Special Teams
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For a rare time in recent history, the kicking game in Washington is actually pretty solid. Kai Forbath isn't the most reliable kicker, but he is at least used to the treacherous surface at FedEx Field.
By contrast, punter Tress Way emerged from obscurity to be one of the league's best in 2014. If he continues that progress, he'll play a key role in winning the field-position battle and aiding the new-look defense.
The coverage units got a boost with arrival of Johnson and the decisions to retain Duke Ihenacho and Trenton Robinson. But the return game remains a lingering doubt.
Neither Paul nor Roberts are particularly explosive. Thompson has potential as a returner, but his ball security and durability issues also make him a risk.
It's understandable that Gruden doesn't seem to want to risk putting Jackson on the field to return kicks. Adding a speedster with this niche skill, either via free agency or the draft, would provide a major boost for this unit and the team as a whole.
Outlook
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Speaking of the team and its look as free agency slows down and the draft looms large, it's easy to sense some improvement.
The defense sorely needed the restocking McCloughan has engineered. But any optimism should remain cautious until Paea has shown his mettle in the new scheme, until Johnson has proved he can make the grade as a starter and Culliver proves he can live up to that contract.
At the moment at least, it's easy to be impressed more by the plan, rather than some of the players it's added to last season's lineups. That plan will come into sharper focus once McCloughan has worked the draft.
All statistics and player information via NFL.com.
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