Predicting Denver Broncos Starting Lineup After the 1st Wave of Free Agency
The Denver Broncos are assembling pieces this offseason to make another run at the Super Bowl in 2015. The team lacks the salary-cap space they had last year, so Denver hasn’t been one of the busier teams during this crazy open market.
Instead of adding big-name free agents for a high price tag, Denver has focused on finding players at positions of need who could be value additions. Players like Owen Daniels, Darian Stewart and Vance Walker may not lead the league in jersey sales, but they are incredibly important free agents the Broncos picked up.
The Broncos will continue to look for quality talent now that the first wave of free agency is done. In addition to veterans, Denver will also look for starters in the 2015 NFL draft.
Here are my predictions for the Denver Broncos starting lineup after the first wave of free agency.
Quarterback
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Starter: Peyton Manning
Backup: Brock Osweiler
Manning took a $4 million pay cut in order to help the Broncos' salary-cap situation. He’s set for at least one more season as the starter, but this time he’ll be operating in a new system. Manning slumped over the second half of 2014, but he still finished the season with 4,727 passing yards and 39 passing touchdowns.
This season, the Broncos should have a more balanced offense under new head coach Gary Kubiak. Manning’s stats won’t measure up to what he did in 2014, but it’s not like they’re going to fall off a cliff. He’s still a top-10 quarterback in the NFL, and he’s only eight games behind Brett Favre for the most career wins by a quarterback in NFL history.
Behind Manning, Osweiler has one more year left on his contract. If the Broncos don’t extend him, then Osweiler is likely to move on in free agency next offseason. If that happens, the Broncos would receive a compensatory pick for the 2017 NFL draft. Expect Denver to add a quarterback like Garrett Grayson (Colorado State) or Bryce Petty (Baylor) in the 2015 NFL draft.
Running Back
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Starter: C.J. Anderson
Backups: Montee Ball, Ronnie Hillman
The Broncos found a star in undrafted free agent C.J. Anderson. He had to wait his turn, but Anderson was ready when both Montee Ball and Ronnie Hillman went down with injury. Anderson didn’t take over until Week 10 against the Oakland Raiders, but he still finished the year with over 1,000 all-purpose yards.
This season, Anderson could be even better. The Broncos are going to be more of a run-heavy offense under new head coach Gary Kubiak. They’ll be using a zone-blocking system up front, and that is perfect for what Anderson can do as a runner. His one-cut-and-go style should work fabulously, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if Anderson rushed for around 1,500 yards in 2015.
Ball will compete for the starting job, but Anderson has to be considered the front-runner. Last season was a wash for Ball, but he could work well as a reserve running back. Hillman is a bit of an odd fit in the new system, but he could contribute as a change-of-pace back for the Broncos.
Fullback
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Starter: Juwan Thompson
Backup: Virgil Green
The running game is going to look different this season. The Broncos are going to be using a fullback for the first time in three seasons. They haven’t picked up any fullbacks in free agency yet, so they could put Juwan Thompson in that spot.
Thompson played the position in college at Duke, and he’s got the size-strength combination to be a good lead blocker or short-yardage runner. I suggested Thompson at fullback when talking to general manager John Elway at the scouting combine earlier this year, and he didn’t shoot down the idea.
Behind Thompson, tight end Virgil Green could see a few snaps lined up in the backfield.
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Wide Receiver
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Starters: Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders
Backups: Andre “Bubba” Caldwell, Cody Latimer
The passing game is going to emphasize the tight end position, but Gary Kubiak will make sure to properly utilize his two star wide receivers as well. The Broncos didn’t want to lose Demaryius Thomas in free agency, and that’s why they placed the franchise tag on him early this offseason.
Thomas once again was the favorite target for Peyton Manning, and he finished 2014 with a whopping 111 catches for 1,619 receiving yards and 11 receiving touchdowns. This year, the offense should be more balanced, so Thomas should see his numbers dip slightly.
Emmanuel Sanders was an incredible free-agent addition last year. Signed for a three-year, $15 million contract, Sanders had a career-best season in his first year with the Broncos. Sanders finished 2014 with 101 catches for 1,404 receiving yards and nine receiving touchdowns. Like Thomas, Sanders should see his receiving numbers decline because of the new offense.
Amazingly, both receivers amassed 69 first downs each in 2014, per ESPN's employee-only database. The Broncos will use them to move the chains (and then some) this season as well.
Behind the Broncos' dynamic duo, Andre “Bubba” Caldwell should stick around as a reserve receiver and return man. Second-year pro Cody Latimer has incredible upside, but this offense is going to keep his numbers lower than originally thought. The Broncos will be looking for a fifth wide receiver who can double as a return man during training camp.
Tight End
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Starters: Owen Daniels, Virgil Green
Backups: Dominique Jones, Joe Don Duncan
The Broncos are going to use two-tight end sets as essentially their base formation. It was imperative for the Broncos to keep Virgil Green around after not being able to afford Julius Thomas (Jacksonville Jaguars) in free agency. It was also important (and no shock) for the team to add veteran tight end Owen Daniels.
We should see Daniels as the lead tight end for the Broncos. He’s the main pass-catcher at the position for the Broncos, and he knows the Gary Kubiak offense like the back of his hand. Daniels will be productive on the field, but he’ll also be a valuable guide to other players trying to pick up the new offense.
Green will be the lead blocking tight end for the Broncos, but he should put up career-best numbers as a pass-catcher too. An underrated receiver, Green should use his size and athleticism to move the chains and snare some scoring passes in the red zone. It would not shock me to see Green catch 30-40 passes in 2015.
We could see the Broncos add another tight end (Jacob Tamme?) before the start of training camp. Guys like Dominique Jones and Joe Don Duncan will compete for roster spots in camp.
Offensive Line
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Starters: Ryan Clady (LT), Shelley Smith (LG), Matt Paradis (C), Louis Vasquez (RG), Michael Schofield (RT)
Backups: Ben Garland, Manny Ramirez, Paul Cornick
At this time, the offensive line is a work in progress. Ryan Clady and Louis Vasquez are locks at their respective positions. Both are All-Pro level players, and if the Broncos were to move them (like they did last year with Vasquez) it would not be a good sign.
In the first wave of free agency, Denver added guard Shelley Smith. The former Colorado State prospect should be able to start at left guard because he’s a good fit in the zone-blocking system.
The two spots that are left up for grabs are at center and right tackle. At this time, 2014 sixth-round pick Matt Paradis is penciled in at center. He didn’t play last year, but he did learn the pro game on the Broncos practice squad as a rookie. Free agents still out there like Chris Myers could be options for Denver at the position.
At right tackle, we may see the team use a first-round pick in the 2015 NFL draft to select the starter. They could also rely on last year’s third-round pick Michael Schofield. Like Paradis, Schofield did not play last season as a rookie. He’ll get a chance to prove himself as a potential starter through camp this year.
Reserve players like Ben Garland, Manny Ramirez and Paul Cornick will be competing for spots on the depth chart. It wouldn’t be a surprise if the team parts ways with Ramirez because of his $3 million cap number and odd fit for the zone-blocking system.
Defensive Line
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Starters: Vance Walker (RDE), Sylvester Williams (NT), Derek Wolfe (LDE)
Backups: Malik Jackson, Marvin Austin
The 3-4 defense the Broncos will employ this season under new defensive coordinator Wade Phillips will emphasize discipline and getting after the quarterback.
Nose tackle is considered the fulcrum of the 3-4 defense, and 2013 first-round pick Sylvester Williams will be tasked with filling that role. Williams flashed as a rookie in 2013, but he struggled to make much of an impact last season. We’ll see if new defensive line coach Bill Kollar can bring out the best in Williams.
On the ends, we’ll likely see Derek Wolfe and Vance Walker. Wolfe, a second-round pick in 2012, should be able to keep containment on the edge and has the strength to get some push from the outside. Walker was just added in the first wave of free agency, and his experience will come in handy as a starter opposite Wolfe.
Malik Jackson is best served as a player brought off the bench in a rotation. His energy and fire is great in a part-time role. Marvin Austin might win the starting job if Williams fails to look good in camp. He can be an effective nose tackle because of his size and quickness off the snap. As always, injuries and focus are a concern with Austin.
Linebackers
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Starters: Von Miller (OLB), Brandon Marshall (ILB), Danny Trevathan (ILB), DeMarcus Ware (OLB)
Backups: Steven Johnson, Corey Nelson, Lamin Barrow, Quanterus Smith
The linebacker corps should carry the load for the Broncos defense this year. Wade Phillips is going to bring the heat, and opposing quarterbacks will certainly be concerned with the pressure Denver should be able to bring from the outside linebacker position.
Von Miller played in a 3-4 defense in college at Texas A&M, and he could have a great season in 2015. He’s not coming off an ACL injury like he was last season, and Miller could get 15-20 sacks this season.
DeMarcus Ware has experience playing under Phillips from their time together with the Dallas Cowboys. Last year, Ware started off hot for the Broncos, but his play seemed to slide over the second half of 2014. In this scheme, Ware should be able to maintain his production, and he could get 10-plus sacks.
Inside linebackers Brandon Marshall and Danny Trevathan are going to have a lot of tackle opportunities in 2015. Marshall looks like he's been shot out of a cannon as a run defender, and he has a good nose for the ball. Trevathan is incredibly athletic, and so long as he’s healthy, his skills should help in coverage.
Backup players like Steven Johnson, Corey Nelson and Lamin Barrow will compete for playing time in reserve roles. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Broncos move on from Quanterus Smith, as he’s struggled to stay healthy and is a bit of an odd fit in the 3-4 defense.
Cornerbacks
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Starters: Aqib Talib, Chris Harris
Backups: Bradley Roby, Kayvon Webster, Tony Carter, Omar Bolden
With all the pressure likely to be generated by the front seven, the cornerbacks should be able to make more than a few plays for the Broncos.
Aqib Talib has the size-speed combination to match up against some of the league’s best receivers and tight ends. His first season in Denver was a success when he was used correctly. Wade Phillips is going to put Talib in positions to win at the point of the catch.
Chris Harris is one of the best corners in the game today. The former undrafted free agent (2011) signed a new contract to stay with the Broncos last year, and he can blanket cover almost any player in the league.
Bradley Roby was the team’s first-round pick last year. He was tested early and often as a rookie, but Roby stood strong throughout. Roby has great upside as a nickel corner, and he could start on the outside if need be.
Kayvon Webster, Tony Carter and Omar Bolden will work as reserve players and sub-package corners. We could see Bolden at free safety as well.
Safeties
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Starters: T.J. Ward (SS), Darian Stewart (FS)
Backups: David Bruton
We could see Wade Phillips be much more creative in the way that the safeties are used this year.
T.J. Ward is an in-the-box player who arrives at the ball-carrier with natural violence. He can jar the football loose from an opponent carrying the ball, and he can also pick off passes. Ward should be involved more as a blitzer this year.
The Broncos added veteran Darian Stewart in free agency this offseason. Stewart has battled through injuries during his pro career, but he stayed healthy and looked good for the Baltimore Ravens in 2014. He’s not as athletic as former free safety Rahim Moore (Houston Texans), but Stewart should be able to roam the secondary and make the plays as a center fielder for the defense.
Bruton is a special teams ace who could be counted on as a spot starter if needed.
Special Teams
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Starters: Connor Barth (K), Britton Colquitt (P), Aaron Brewer (LS)
Backups: Brandon McManus, Karl Schmitz
These positions might change before we get to the start of the regular season. Right now, Connor Barth is the kicker—and he should be able to keep his job.
Brandon McManus is the backup kicker and kickoff specialist for the Broncos. He may be on the bubble if the newly acquired Karl Schmitz can impress. Schmitz can kick 70-yard field goals, long snap and work as a punter.
Britton Colquitt is the highest-paid punter in the league in terms of average annual salary. His production does not match his price tag, and he might be on the roster bubble too.
All quotes and injury/practice observations obtained firsthand. Record/statistical information provided via the Broncos' media department unless otherwise noted.
Contract and salary-cap information provided by Spotrac. Transaction history provided by Pro Sports Transactions. Draft grades provided by NFLDraftScout.com.
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