New England Patriots: Reassessing Draft Needs After 1st Wave of Free Agency

Evaluating draft needs before free agency is the type of exercise that probably inspired cliches like "putting the cart in front of the horse."  With billions of dollars in contracts flooding the market, several teams have seen their roster compositions change drastically.

The New England Patriots certainly fall into that camp, as an offseason focused on retention has failed to bring back their two biggest free agents.  In fairness, the markets for Darrelle Revis and Shane Vereen mushroomed to unpalatable levels, and the Pats are more flexible in the long run for not mortgaging their future over the past week.

Still, that's not what the fanbase wants to hear, even just five weeks after a fourth Lombardi Trophy that almost felt as cathartic as it did thrilling.  The Patriots are unquestionably a worse team than they were on February 1, and while no rational mind should panic given how early it is in the roster-building season, there's certainly plenty of ground to make up.

New England will add some value signings in free agency as they do every year, but the most intriguing offseason additions will now arrive through the draft.  It's always presumptuous to expect a rookie to save a squad, particularly one with Super Bowl aspirations, but there are several positions aching for an impact contributor in 2015. 

With the caveat that an NFL roster is always a fluid entity, let's re-evaluate where the Patriots' draft needs stand now that most of the biggest free agents are off the market.

5. Base-Package Linebacker

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Unlike the other positions on this list, the Patriots don't really have the need for an immediate-impact linebacker.  Jamie Collins and Dont'a Hightower will see their contracts expire after the 2016 season, but New England's healthy long-term cap outlook could allow it to retain both.  Thus, while someone like Swiss army knife Shaq Thompson could be a fun chess piece, the Pats should probably pass on linebacker early.

I specified base package here because of the loss of Jonathan Casillas.  Acquired in a midseason trade from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Casillas replaced Jerod Mayo's role in base packages, with 48 percent of his snaps coming against the run, per Pro Football Focus.  Jonathan Freeny, whom the team announced as a signing from the Miami Dolphins, could fill that role, though he's likely just exploratory depth at the moment.

In the middle rounds, someone like Michigan's Jake Ryan or Michigan State's Taiwan Jones could appeal as a thumper.  Both check in between 6'2" and 6'3" and 240-245 pounds, and they boast impressive collegiate resumes.  Jones in particular was an effective A-gap blitzer in Lansing, a valuable pass-rushing wrinkle that Collins and Hightower executed with great success last season.

No prospect in New England's range is likely to develop into the type of three-down mismatches that Collins and Hightower were last season.  If Mayo can work out a pay cut with the front office to remain on the team, this might not even represent that pressing of a need at all.  Still, it's always good to replenish the pipelines periodically, so don't be surprised if the Patriots draft some insurance for the position.

4. Running Back

With both Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley hitting free agency, this position was always going to be an area where the Pats would need more depth.  Vereen priced himself way out of New England's range in landing a three-year, $12.35 million deal with the New York Giants, while Ridley will likely move on given the logjam of power backs in the Patriots backfield.  Reggie Bush looks like a realistic possibility to sign, but the 30-year-old would represent more of a bridge than a long-term solution.

The Pats could likely get by relying on the trio of LeGarrette Blount, Jonas Gray and James White, but it would be an unspectacular backfield without the type of ball-carrier who can wriggle out of a two-yard loss and turn it into a two-yard gain. 

Truthfully, New England hasn't employed that kind of back since Corey Dillon, but with Tom Brady approaching his twilight years and the defense once again on its heels, the Patriots might need a new way to take the burden off No. 12.

Fortunately, the draft is ripe with backs who could have a Week 1 impact; along with edge-rusher and wide receiver, it's arguably this class' deepest position.  Todd Gurley and Melvin Gordon might be first-round luxuries the Patriots can't afford anymore, but Ameer Abdullah, Tevin Coleman and Jay Ajayi are potential three-down backs who could be had on Day 2.

If the Pats are looking for a receiving specialist, Miami's Duke Johnson and Michigan State's Jeremy Langford are two options I highlighted as potential Vereen replacements before free agency.  On the other end of the spectrum, Karlos Williams and David Cobb are two bruising backs with one-cut, downhill running styles, a prototype that has traditionally fit well in Foxborough.  All four of these names should be available in Rounds 3-4.

Unless the Pats fall in love with someone like Gurley, don't expect them to spend a premium-round pick on a running back.  Fortunately, even if they wait until Day 3, the Patriots could still end up with a terrific value and a player who contributes meaningfully to their backfield-by-committee in 2015.

3. Defensive Tackle

The interior line looks a little thin at the moment, but the Pats have been shopping around and seem likely to add at least one veteran to the mix. 

New England is still in the race to bring Vince Wilfork back to Foxborough, as NFL Media's Ian Rapoport suggested that the Patriots were one of four teams that the 33-year-old was considering.  Additionally, the Pats have been linked to Nick Fairley, though the ex-Detroit Lion has yet to visit.

Adding either Wilfork or Fairley would give the interior line nice depth in 2015, with precocious run-stuffer Sealver Siliga and 2014 first-rounder Dominique Easley also in the fold.  However, it's hard to imagine the Pats passing up on adding more help through the draft when considering the depth of the class.

The trio of Carl Davis, Eddie Goldman and Jordan Phillips are all realistic possibilities for the No. 32 selection, while someone like Preston Smith could be a versatile, three-down 5- and 3-technique.  It's unlikely that the Pats would trade up, but if they identify someone like Arik Armstead or Malcom Brown as a potential game-changer, perhaps they use some of their Day 2 ammo to make a jump.

These aforementioned players are stronger against the run, but what if the Pats add a 3-technique? 

This seems less likely than before free agency.  Jabaal Sheard's signing could allow Chandler Jones to kick inside on passing downs, where his length and quick get-off has given lead-footed guards trouble in the past.  Moreover, despite Easley's ominous history of knee injuries, the Pats seem unlikely to abandon a player they made the 29th overall selection last May.

Nonetheless, a Day 2 option like Bobby Richardson or Michael Bennett would profile as an immediate sub-package contributor.  While it's unclear what type of defensive tackle prospect the Patriots might be looking for, it's likely better than 50-50 that they'll add at least one.

2. Guard

This looked like the Patriots' biggest weakness headed into the offseason.  Based on Pro Football Focus' grading metrics, New England's guards combined for a ghastly cumulative grade of minus-53.3.  Only Ryan Wendell graded positively on the season, while Marcus Cannon, Jordan Devey and Dan Connolly all finished in the bottom quarter among guards.

The free-agent market was never going to ameliorate these woes.  The Big Three of Mike Iupati, Orlando Franklin and Clint Boling have all already reached deals, and even potential bargains like Joe Berger and Todd Herremans are off the market. 

The Pats could plug in a veteran stopgap like Justin Blalock or Shelley Smith, but they'd probably feel more comfortable sticking with Connolly if they go that route.  Philly's Evan Mathis has also emerged as a trade possibility, according to the Boston Herald's Jeff Howe, but there's stiff competition for his services.

However, it's unclear what kind of early-round value the Patriots could get at guard.  Top prospects A.J. Cann and Cameron Erving are probably mid-second round projections right now, so they'd be strong targets if the Pats traded out of the first round.  Additionally, converted collegiate tackle Jake Fisher tested extremely well at the combine and could be a fit with his versatility and experience in a spread system.

New England hosted a quartet of guards at the scouting combine, including Tre Jackson and Laken Tomlinson, according to NESN's Doug Kyed.  Jackson and Tomlinson both figure to go off the board on Day 2 as well.  With three picks between Rounds 2 and 3 (including a projected third-round compensatory selection), this could be a sweet spot for the Patriots to address the interior of their line.

Connolly and Wendell helped New England patch together a competent line after a disastrous start last season, but neither represents the type of long-term stability one would ideally have.  Given the dearth of realistic free-agent options, the draft was always the only avenue for the Patriots to strengthen this unit.

1. Cornerback

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The strongest unit on last year's defense is now unquestionably its weakest after the defections of Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner.  Bill Belichick is never one to wear his heart on his sleeve, but one can only imagine the frustration he must feel after spending years crafting a championship-caliber secondary, only to see everything dissipate after one glorious run.

Regardless, with a relatively barren free-agent cornerback crop left, the Pats will almost certainly need to seek reinforcements through the draft.  Unfortunately, it's hard to determine what kind of prospect New England will seek out without knowing the system they'll play. 

Most are assuming that the Pats will revert to a zone-heavy system, but some like Bleacher Report's Matt Bowen believe that the retention of rangy center fielder Devin McCourty will allow the Pats to preserve some man principles.

The Pats will probably mix lots of zone and man principles—look for increased usage of Cover 4 or "Quarters" defense, a hybrid scheme that teams without dominant corners often play—but what's certain is that they won't play much press. 

Kyle Arrington and Logan Ryan don't have the size to challenge bigger receivers at the line, while Alfonzo Dennard and Malcolm Butler are willing but technically flawed corners who would probably be better served using more liberal doses of safety help.

There aren't many plug-and-play corners in this draft, especially when considering that the likes of Trae Waynes and Marcus Peters figure to go before the 32nd pick. 

LSU's Jalen Collins could intrigue the Pats with his size, though the 6'1", 203-pounder is a raw prospect whose technique hasn't caught up with his physical tools.  P.J. Williams and Quinten Rollins are more experienced prospects with the size to hold up in man schemes, and both should be available when the Patriots are on the clock.

You can be assured that we'll take a deeper dive into corner prospects throughout draft season, as this position now represents the biggest obstacle toward a New England repeat. 

Last year's bullying unit was perfectly equipped to thwart a league where the passing game has gotten shorter and more spacing-oriented.  Now, the Patriots' biggest question is whether they can cobble together enough of a reasonable facsimile to give themselves an earnest chance at a fifth ring.