Trent Cole Signing Provides Much Needed Boost to Colts Pass Rush

The Colts finished ninth in Football Outsiders' adjusted sack rate last season, but that number belied a real problem with the pass rush: It was entirely blitz dependent.

The Colts' lack of edge-rusher talent proved to be a real problem in the playoffs. Their great hope at the position, first-round pick Bjoern Werner, was so unproductive that the Colts deactivated him for the AFC Championship game. 

What's a team to do? Well, wandering into one of the best free-agent markets for edge-rusher talent in recent memory is a good start. The Colts walked out of it with former Eagles outside linebacker Trent Cole, a player that general manager Ryan Grigson is familiar with from his time in Philadelphia. According to ESPN's Adam Caplan, Cole will ink a two-year contract that pays him $16 million total and $8 million in guarantees.

In Cole, the Colts have a win-now stab at fixing their major issues. Cole has fallen off from the dominant levels he was at in the beginning of the decade. He averaged 11.5 sacks from 2006-2011 but has managed just 17.5 over the last three seasons. 

Still, sacks don't tell us the whole story of a player. And at the price the Colts are investing here, they're clearly not banking on Cole being the sole solution to their problems from last season. 

This could perhaps be just the first step for Indianapolis at solving the position, perhaps following the advice of some random Internet scribe. 

Player	Snaps	Sacks	PFF Pass Rush Grade	QB Hurries
Trent Cole	834	6.5	+11.3	26
Top 4 Indy Pass Rushers	1,828	16.5	-3.4	44

There's really not much debate to be had over whether Cole will invigorate the Indy pass rush: He's as good a bet as the Colts could have hoped to find. Obviously, injuries and age (Cole will be 32 on opening day) could strike quickly, but pass-rushers have been evading Father Time much more frequently as specialization in sports medicine continues to grow.

I don't know that Cole is necessarily the best available rusher on the market—to me that's Greg Hardy—but he's a very legitimate attempt to correct the problem.

The question it leaves me with is: What will Indianapolis do with the rest of its depth at the position? 

Player	2014 Snaps	Sacks	PFF Pass Rush Rating	QB Hurries	Cap Savings if Released
Bjoern Werner	762	4	-6.6	18	$3.75 million
Erik Walden	669	6	-0.9	13	$420k
Jonathan Newsome	397	6.5	+3.4	13	-$1 million
Robert Mathis	0	n/a	n/a	n/a	$4 million

I think Erik Walden is a prime candidate from this group, as he can really only provide adequacy as a pass-rusher and holds the edge like a crying child asked to pay attention to a rattle. However, there's also a lot of uncertainty in the group as a whole.

Robert Mathis will be coming off an entire year lost to a substance abuse suspension and a torn Achilles. Jonathan Newsome showed some flashes of talent in his low snap count and may be worth a longer look as a starter. Nobody knows what to make of Werner at this point. I wouldn't even be surprised if he got asked to bulk up and attempt to hold down the 3-4 end spot Cory Redding has left. 

If I were Grigson, I'd probably release Walden and either add another pass-rusher or make it a draft priority in the first round. But I think there are a number of defensible positions to take with this current pass rush core, and I wouldn't even be surprised if they now think they're settled. 

One thing is certain: The Colts and Grigson have smartly vacated the middle-class, free-agent pack and are instead moving to the older, formerly elite tier of free agency. It's a place the Broncos and Patriots have exploited well over the past few seasons to get solid production at middle-of-the-road cap prices. 

I think this shift should excite Colts fans. It's one thing to have the best team and another to attempt to win a championship. These win-now moves, unlike the stopgap Walden/LaRon Landry/Donald Thomas tier, show that the Colts are unquestionably going for it. 

All DYAR and DVOA numbers cited are courtesy of Football Outsiders. Learn more about DVOA here.

 

Rivers McCown is the AFC South lead writer for Bleacher Report and the co-host of the Three-Cone Drill podcast. His work has also appeared on Football Outsiders and ESPN.com. Follow him on Twitter at @riversmccown.