Dirk Nowitzki Won't, Can't Fade into the Sunset for Dallas Mavericks
Dirk Nowitzki has been carrying the Dallas Mavericks for well over a decade now, but even one of the greatest power forwards ever can't single-handedly bear such a burden at the age of 36. The Mavs are 2-5 in their last seven games, and Nowitzki's recent form has been shaky too.
Nowitzki's injury scare in 2012-13 was a worrying sign. The German forward sat out the early part of that season following a knee surgery, which was seemingly a sign that his age was starting to catch up to him. It was a tough year, but Nowitzki still managed to remain efficient. He shot 41.4 percent from beyond the three-point line, the third-best figure in his career.
A below-the-rim style, exceptional shooting and post-up skills have allowed the future Hall of Famer to age gracefully. He has continued to be highly impactful for the Mavs this season, although there is a palpable chink in his armor.
Dallas head coach Rick Carlisle went into the season planning to ease the burden on his superstar. With Monta Ellis running the show, Tyson Chandler back in the middle and Chandler Parsons added on the wing, Dirk was to take a backseat and enjoy the ride.
"We want there to be a balance," Coach Carlisle said before the season tipped off, according to Tim MacMahon of ESPNDallas.com. "We want him to get shots off of being a screener. We want him to get shots off of being a guy that's spotted up when guys are driving it. We want to get him shots in transition."
Essentially, Nowitzki was to be a glorified role player rather than the undisputed primary offensive option.
Carlisle followed through with his plan early in the year. Dirk was simply a vital piece in the mesmerizing flow offense, rather than being a one-man show. He spent most of his time running pick-and-pops and spotting up beyond the arc, rather than grinding through a bunch of exhausting post-ups which he was saving for the postseason.
Since adding Rajon Rondo and stripping the bench in the midseason blockbuster trade, Carlisle has been forced to re-evaluate how he uses Dirk to reinvigorate a declining offense.
Following the trade in December, 23.9 percent of Nowitzki's shots have been threes, according to NBAwowy.com. Prior to adding Rondo, Dirk took 28.1 percent of his shots from long range. Those high pick-and-pops Dallas ran a lot earlier in the season have been replaced with post-ups, as Nowitzki now takes more shots in the paint and down low.
It's not a huge difference. Nowitzki still gets looks in transition and spots up all over the floor, but he can no longer just go with the flow. For Dallas' offense to function, Dirk now has to carry a bigger offensive responsibility.
Carlisle has done a great job limiting Nowitzki's playing time, as he is logging below 30 minutes per game for the first time since his rookie season. Even so, he ranks in the top 15 in total post-ups.
It's getting harder for him to beat guys down low, but Dirk still scores 0.89 points per possession when posting up, according to Synergy Sports (h/t NBA.com). Only five players with higher volume of attempts are more efficient, while bruisers like the Memphis Grizzlies' Zach Randolph and the Sacramento Kings' DeMarcus Cousins score at the same rate.
Nowitzki is still capable of being a major contributor, but wearing down his body in the regular season isn't good for him or the team. Dirk's shooting percentages have been all over the place lately, as he shot 28.6 percent from deep in February and has hit just 35.9 percent from the field in March so far.
Having the offense go through Dirk also makes the Mavs more predictable at times. For instance, take a look at this possession:
Dallas clearly looks for Nowitzki on that play. Following a high screen, Dirk cuts to the low block, but the Cleveland Cavaliers' LeBron James does a great job fronting him. J.J. Barea gives the ball up to Chandler Parsons, who can't find the entry pass either. Instead, he dribbles the ball out to the perimeter, gets the switch on an uninspiring high screen by Amar'e Stoudemire and ends up heaving a tough isolation three.
There was minimal off-ball movement in that possession, which meant that Dallas put all its eggs in one basket. When the initial play didn't work out, the Mavs reverted to isolation basketball, which has become more common for the team lately.
Earlier in the season, Dallas' offense wasn't this telegraphed. Nowitzki's looks in general were better, simply because defenses had plenty of other threats to consider. Floor spacing and mobility had a lot to do with it, and the now-departed Brandan Wright and Jameer Nelson were better fits than Stoudemire and Rondo in that regard.
Nowitzki has been in a slump, but Carlisle remained adamant (and rightfully so) that the team needs to help him, following Tuesday's embarrassing 127-94 home loss to the Cavaliers, according to Bryan Gutierrez of MavsOutsider.com:
"Well, if that is indeed the case, then the guys around him need to function at a higher level so that a) we can get him better shots, b) protect him better on defense and c) play better as a team," Carlisle said. "But let's not make this a Dirk issue. This is a Mavericks issue."
While the Mavericks desperately need Nowitzki to break out of his slump and hit some of his open shots, the system is just not working right now. Since the All-Star break, Dallas has failed to score 100 points in eight out of their 11 games. The Mavs have put up an average offensive rating of 96.6 in that time frame, according to NBA.com. To put in perspective how ugly that figure is, only the Philadelphia 76ers are scoring fewer points per 100 possessions than that this season, according to ESPN.com's Hollinger stats.
The Mavs haven't been healthy since the All-Star break, so it's understandable that they are limping offensively, but such drastic figures are still worrying.
Nowitzki now needs a functioning system around him in order to thrive. If Carlisle can manage to craft effective lineups and reintroduce more ball movement, the Mavs are still a formidable team.
Either way, Dallas personnel are more than confident that the German's gas tank is far from empty, according to Tim MacMahon:
"It's hard to tell how much Mavs president of basketball operations Donnie Nelson is joking when he says he thinks Nowitzki can be a quality contributor until he's 45. There's no doubt, though, that the Dallas front office and coaches are confident the basketball version of a BMW isn't about to break down."
Carlisle said, per MacMahon, "There's never been a 7-foot guy in the history of this league who's played his position the way he's played it to his age. And he's got a lot of good basketball left in him."
Dirk isn't the same player he was during the 2011 championship run, and it would be preposterous to expect that. But he is still the guy opposing teams have to adjust their game plans for, and he is more than capable of doing damage in the playoffs. As long as the Mavericks can figure out their issues until then, that is.
You can follow me on Twitter: @VytisLasaitis
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
