Which Teams Have Hardest Paths to 2015 College Football National Championship?
2014 was one of college football’s most exciting seasons ever. The inaugural College Football Playoff offered more opportunity for teams to make noise nationally, as Ohio State proved. The Buckeyes suffered a damaging Week 2 loss to Virginia Tech, but recovered in a huge way, going unblemished the rest of the season to win a national championship.
There’s room for error in the College Football Playoff era, but not much. Florida State was the only unbeaten playoff team, but teams like Baylor and TCU were left lamenting lone defeats that kept them on the outside looking in. Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com argues that the playoff should be expanded.
Your schedule still matters. And while you have room for a slip-up, as Ohio State proved, the margin is thin. Here’s a look at 10 teams that could potentially have an argument for the national title, but will be forced to fight through difficult paths to get there.
10. Boise State
1 of 10
Despite an expanded four-team playoff field, the road to a national title remains incredibly difficult for a team outside of the Power Five conferences. In 2014, no program outside of the Power Five seriously contended for a College Football Playoff spot. However, Boise State caught the nation’s attention with a 12-2 season capped by a Fiesta Bowl win over Arizona in coach Bryan Harsin’s first year at the helm.
The Broncos return 17 starters in 2015 but must replace starting quarterback Grant Hedrick and 1,823-yard rusher Jay Ajayi, an early NFL draft entrant. With a Mountain West Conference schedule, Boise has zero room for error, and we’ll know if the Broncos have any shot at a title run by midseason.
The Broncos have a tough opening to the season, hosting Washington and former coach Chris Petersen in the opener, then traveling to face BYU and talented quarterback Taysom Hill the following week.
After a breather against FCS foe Idaho State, Boise has a deceptively tough cross-country trip to Virginia. And a two-game road trip to MWC contenders Colorado State and Utah State will test the mettle of Harsin’s bunch.
The schedule gets easier down the stretch, but it’ll be difficult for Boise to survive the first half of 2015 unbeaten, especially while breaking in a new starting quarterback.
9. Georgia
2 of 10
At a place like Georgia, a national title is always the expectation. So 2014 was a disappointment for Mark Richt and Co. The Bulldogs won 10 games, but failed to win the SEC East and lost to rivals Florida, Georgia Tech and South Carolina. Georgia returns 13 starters, including standout tailback Nick Chubb, but the schedule is unforgiving.
Following winnable games against Louisiana-Monroe and Vanderbilt, the Gamecocks visit for what is always an emotional border war. This season, UGA has drawn Alabama in the SEC East rotation. Three years ago, the Bulldogs gave Alabama everything it wanted in a narrow SEC title game defeat, but the Tide’s last visit to Athens in 2008 was a 41-30 victory.
Alabama is followed by a trip to Neyland Stadium to face an improving Tennessee team and a homecoming date with Missouri. Halloween brings the annual neutral-site showdown with Florida in Jacksonville, and two weeks later, the Bulldogs must travel to rival Auburn.
That’s followed by a trip to Bobby Dodd Stadium to face off with a Georgia Tech team that won 11 games a year ago. To get through this schedule in position to make a title run will require one of Richt’s better coaching efforts.
8. Michigan State
3 of 10
If you want to dismiss Michigan State as a national contender, do so at your own peril. Over the last two seasons, the Spartans are 24-3 with Cotton and Rose Bowl victories, with the only losses coming to Notre Dame, Ohio State and Oregon. This season, Mark Dantonio’s team wants to take the next step, which is making the College Football Playoff and making a legit run at a national title.
The Spartans return 12 starters and must replace their leading rusher and receiver from a year ago, but they do bring back quarterback Connor Cook, who will be one of the nation’s top passers this fall. They’ll need everything they can get from Cook and his cohorts to get through a challenging schedule.
A season-opening trip to Western Michigan won’t be tough, but a Sept. 12 visit from Oregon (even without Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Marcus Mariota) will be a difficult task. That’s followed by a visit from Air Force. The Falcons won 10 games a year ago, and their flexbone option has been known to flummox foes.
The Spartans must travel to rival Michigan and their new coach Jim Harbaugh on Oct. 17, then they'll travel to Nebraska Nov. 7.
They’ll finish the regular season with a trip to defending national champion Ohio State and a visit from what should be an improved Penn State program. Michigan State will be one of the nation’s best teams, but the potential for missteps abounds.
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7. Clemson
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Under Dabo Swinney’s watch, Clemson has quietly established itself as a national title contender. The Tigers have strung together four consecutive 10-win seasons and want to take the next step forward in 2015 and bring home the program’s first national title since 1981.
It won’t be a simple task. The Tigers return 10 starters, including electric quarterback Deshaun Watson, but they must restock a defense that returns only three starters, none on the defensive line.
Clemson’s schedule gets tough in mid-September. The ACC schedule begins with a Sept. 17 trip to Louisville, a Thursday night game nationally televised by ESPN. That’s never an easy task for opponents.
Following an open week, Notre Dame makes its first trip to Death Valley since 1977 for one of the season’s most hotly anticipated non-conference games. That’s followed by a visit from Georgia Tech, which blasted Clemson 28-6 a year ago in Atlanta.
Back-to-back trips to Miami and an improving N.C. State team are followed by the ACC’s game of the year when Florida State (which has won three consecutive games over the Tigers) comes calling on Nov. 3. The Tigers finish the season with an always-nasty rivalry game at South Carolina, which has beaten Clemson five of the last six seasons.
6. Stanford
5 of 10
2014 was a down season by Stanford’s standards. Following a pair of Pac-12 championships, David Shaw’s team took a step back with an 8-5 record. However, Stanford gave its fans reason to be excited at season’s end, blasting UCLA and Maryland to finish 2014 strong. Senior quarterback Kevin Hogan told Jon Wilner of the San Jose Mercury News that his team was hungry entering spring practice.
"We've recognized, coming off a season that was disappointing, that we have to hold ourselves to a higher standard," Hogan said. "It was a good situation, and it's carrying over to practice."
Stanford hopes to recover its status as a Pac-12 power this fall. Against this slate, it won’t be easy. The season begins with a trip to Big Ten foe Northwestern, and Central Florida visits the following week. The Pac-12 season begins with a two-game road trip to Southern California and Oregon State, followed by an Oct. 3 conference home opener against defending Pac-12 South champion Arizona.
An open date is followed by visits from UCLA and Washington.
While the season ends with a three-game homestand, it will be difficult. It begins with national runner-up Oregon, continues with Bay Area rival Cal (an improving program) and finishes with Notre Dame. Stanford will be a trendy dark-horse playoff pick this fall, but meeting expectations will be tough with this schedule.
5. Georgia Tech
6 of 10
2014 was a year to remember for Georgia Tech and Paul Johnson. After winning the 2009 ACC title, a 28-25 record over the next four seasons had some wondering if Johnson was long for the Flats. An 11-2 season, ACC Coastal Division title and Orange Bowl win over Mississippi State answered that in the affirmative.
Now, an even bigger challenge awaits: Build on that campaign and make a run at a national title. The Yellow Jackets return 13 starters, including standout quarterback Justin Thomas, but repeating that success won’t be easy.
On Sept. 19, the schedule ramps up with a trip to Notre Dame, thanks to the ACC’s scheduling arrangement with the Fighting Irish. That’s followed by a trip to Duke to face the Blue Devils—who defeated the Yellow Jackets a year ago—and a home game against North Carolina.
Then, the Yellow Jackets must travel to Clemson—where they haven't won since 2008, when they defeated the Tigers in Dabo Swinney’s first game as interim head coach—and host Florida State in a three-week span, with only a game against Pitt in between.
The season closes with a home game against Virginia Tech, a trip to Miami and a huge rivalry game against a Georgia team who will be out for revenge following Tech’s upset win a year ago.
A year ago, the Jackets lost three games. Cutting that down to a single defeat and making a national title run? That won’t be easy at all.
4. Auburn
7 of 10
2014 wasn’t a season to remember in Auburn. Following a surprising run to the BCS National Championship Game in 2013, the Tigers couldn’t catch a break (or stop an SEC opponent), as they slipped to an 8-5 record. Coach Gus Malzahn canned defensive coordinator Ellis Johnson and replaced him with former Florida coach Will Muschamp, which is reason enough for excitement.
The Tigers return 12 starters, get talented defensive end Carl Lawson back from a torn ACL and add a talented recruiting class filled with impact players like tailback Jovon Robinson and defensive end Byron Cowart. In other words, there’s reason for optimism.
However, a tough schedule could temper that glee on the Plains.
The season begins with an interesting neutral-site matchup against Louisville and former assistant Bobby Petrino at the Georgia Dome. On Sept. 19, the SEC slate opens up with a tough trip to LSU, which will likely be new starting quarterback Jeremy Johnson’s first SEC road game. That’ll be followed by a visit from Mississippi State and Heisman Trophy candidate Dak Prescott.
Another difficult stretch starts in mid-October, when Auburn visits Kentucky for a Thursday night game, followed by a trip to Arkansas. Halloween brings a visit from Ole Miss, followed by a trip to Texas A&M and the annual rivalry game with Georgia.
And, of course, the season ends with the Iron Bowl, which will be in Jordan-Hare Stadium this fall. The Tigers might need a repeat of November 2013’s magical finish to make a realistic push for the College Football Playoff. That’s hard to count on, of course.
3. Notre Dame
8 of 10
Despite an 8-5 record in 2014, Notre Dame gave its fans reason for optimism. The Fighting Irish began the season 6-0 and shook off a four-game losing streak to end the regular season with a Music City Bowl win over LSU. What’s more, Brian Kelly brings back 19 starters from a year ago.
The Irish play their typically challenging schedule thanks to an arrangement with the ACC, which placed six ACC foes on the 2015 slate.
The season begins with one of 2015’s most eagerly anticipated nonconference matchups when Texas visits South Bend in the first half of a home-and-home series. A visit to an improving Virginia team won’t be easy, and neither will a visit from Orange Bowl champion Georgia Tech the following week.
Oct. 3 features the most difficult road game on the schedule: Notre Dame travels to Clemson to face off with the Tigers for the first time since 1979.
Under Dabo Swinney, Clemson has turned Memorial Stadium into one of the nation’s most foreboding environments. Two weeks later, the Irish host Southern California in an annual rivalry matchup, and the Trojans (who beat Notre Dame 49-14 a year ago) should be one of the nation’s best teams this fall.
The season ends with four of five games on the road: two away games against Temple and Pitt, a home game against Wake Forest, a “neutral” game against Boston College at Fenway Park and an away game against an improved Stanford team to end the regular season. If the Fighting Irish make the College Football Playoff, it'll be because they earned it.
2. Southern California
9 of 10
When you coach at a place like Southern California, with excellent resources and tradition, expectations are always high.
Following a nine-win debut campaign, that’ll certainly be the case for Steve Sarkisian this fall. The Trojans will return 15 starters and are getting back to full strength following difficult NCAA sanctions, although replacing early entrants to the NFL draft like defensive end Leonard Williams, wideout Nelson Agholor and tailback Javorius "Buck" Allen won’t be easy.
The Trojans’ schedule gets tough on Sept. 19, when an improved Stanford team visits. That’s followed immediately by a road trip to Arizona State, coming off back-to-back 10-win seasons under Todd Graham’s watch.
A Thursday night visit from Washington follows a bye week, and then the Trojans must travel to Notre Dame. USC put a vicious 49-14 whipping on the Fighting Irish a year ago, but the Irish return 19 starters and will be hugely motivated to reverse that result this fall.
The season ends with a home game against Arizona, trips to Colorado and Oregon and the crosstown rivalry game against UCLA. USC should have the talent to contend for a Pac-12 championship and potentially a national title, but this schedule offers no room for mistakes.
1. Alabama
10 of 10
It’s no surprise that Alabama will be a national championship contender again in 2015. The Crimson Tide will return only nine starters from a roster that won an SEC title and entered the College Football Playoff as the No. 1 seed before falling to Ohio State in the Sugar Bowl.
But if you examine the way Nick Saban and his staff have recruited recently, you count the Tide out at your own peril. Alabama will be in the title picture this fall, but a brutal schedule does it no favors.
Saban’s team begins 2015 at AT&T Stadium with a tough neutral-site game against Wisconsin. On Sept. 19, Ole Miss (which defeated the Tide in Oxford a year ago) visits for the SEC opener.
The SEC schedule draw also hurts Alabama. Florida comes off the schedule in favor of a trip to Georgia on Oct. 3, and that’s followed by a trip from Bret Bielema’s rapidly improving Arkansas team. Then, a trip to College Station for a showdown with Texas A&M and a visit from a young, improving Tennessee team looms.
Following an open date, Alabama hosts LSU for what is annually one of the season’s hardest-hitting games and then must travel to Starkville to face off with Mississippi State. And, of course, the season ends with the Iron Bowl in Auburn. Alabama is talented and should improve as the season wears on, but this is clearly the nation’s most challenging schedule.
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