Finding the Ideal Point Guard for Carmelo Anthony's New York Knicks
For better or worse, the New York Knicks are heavily invested in Carmelo Anthony.
So they'd better get to work this summer on finding the talent that will get the most out their injured franchise cornerstone.
Current Sacramento Kings head coach George Karl teamed up with Melo in Denver for seven consecutive playoff seasons. If anybody knows what Anthony needs to succeed, it's him.
"I would go get a great point guard and then find some good big guys," Karl told Ian Begley of ESPNNewYork.com. "I think you have a stud scorer (in Anthony)—get me a brain, get me a quarterback and then fill in the pieces with maybe second-tier big guys."
It's tempting to gloss over Karl's comments and instead argue that the best way for the Knicks to get the most out of Anthony is to surround him with star-level talent—positional designation be damned. We know Melo was his best self as a member of Team USA, when he could operate as a scoring threat who thrived off of shots created by other big names.
Sure, ideally the Knicks would go out and sign the absolute best players available. They've got $25 million in cap room this summer, so there's a ton of sense in skipping right past the point guard question and knocking down Marc Gasol's door.
But it's probably not realistic for the Knicks to believe they'll lure in marquee free agents so easily—not with their current roster, Anthony's uncertain health status going forward and the general lack of progress during Phil Jackson's first year in charge.
We have to approach this more realistically, focusing on plausible floor-general fits the Knicks could pursue in July.
Perhaps if we look into Anthony's recent history, we'll get an idea of whom they should be targeting.
As Anthony ages, it'll be critical for his point guard to make his role as a primary scorer easier. That means we need to seek out a set-up artist.
The last floor general to play with Anthony in a year where more than half of his baskets were assisted was (deep breath) Allen Iverson. Already, we've strayed from Karl's prototype.
That was back in the 2007-08 season when AI and Melo combined to average 52.1 points per game. Iverson, then 32, started all 82 contests, led the team in scoring and handed out 7.1 assists on average.
Anthony's 56.8 percent true shooting percentage that season, aided by having 55.4 percent of his twos and 96.6 percent of his threes assisted, was a career best, according to Basketball-Reference.com. For reference, only 38 percent of Anthony's two-point shots were assisted this season, along with 78.7 percent of his threes.
Summation, Anthony is better when he's being set up, which isn't all that surprising because just about everyone is.
So while Karl specifically mentioned Andre Miller and Chauncey Billups as the kinds of game-managing quarterbacks he'd like to see paired with Anthony going forward, history says Melo is better off alongside a more dynamic offensive threat.
One problem: There's not really an Iverson type out there for the Knicks to pursue. Not only was Iverson a singularly talented athlete, the kind who comes along once in a generation, but there's also less and less interest in high-volume, low-efficiency ball-dominators in today's NBA.
There are no more Iversons.
But there is a Monta Ellis, who is a fuzzy copy of AI in terms of his athleticism and shoot-first mentality. Ellis may opt out of his current deal at year's end, and he'll be looking to cash in. The Knicks should get involved but will want to be careful about signing Ellis as part of a likely lottery team.
He's been fantastic in the Dallas Mavericks' idyllic environment, but we've seen him sour in unpleasant situations with the Golden State Warriors and Milwaukee Bucks.
Ellis would come with risk.
Maybe that means we need to heed Karl's advice about steadier, headier point guards. If that's the case, all we need to do is look back at Anthony's most successful Knicks season, 2012-13, to find examples.
Those Knicks won 54 games and Anthony, arguably, had the best season of his career, posting personal bests in player efficiency rating and usage rate. His point guards on that team were Raymond Felton, Jason Kidd and Pablo Prigioni, all of whom played well alongside Anthony, according to NBA.com:
Notably, Prigioni was most successful, albeit in the smallest sample of minutes.
If we go with Prigioni as a model, it means we're looking for a guy who can make open threes (Prigioni hit 39.6 percent from deep in 2012-13) and is extremely deferential. The only thing Prigs likes better than a clean look is passing one up.
So, which of the point guards on this summer's free-agent market best fit that bill and stand as realistic targets for the Knicks?
Unfortunately, there aren't any perfect fits.
Brandon Knight is a knockdown perimeter shooter, but he's not a pass-first player, and he'll be restricted anyway. The Knicks can offer him a deal, but it's hard to imagine the Phoenix Suns traded away two of their core guards without intending to keep Knight, their replacement, at all costs.
Rajon Rondo is an intriguing option because he would spend most of his time on the floor hunting for ways to assist Anthony (and others). He's also ball-dominant to an almost Iversonian degree, which kind of makes him a hybrid of what Karl wants and what Iverson provided.
| Anthony-Felton | 1,765 | 111.9 | 105.1 | +6.8 |
| Anthony-Kidd | 1,300 | 110.5 | 103.1 | +7.4 |
| Anthony-Prigioni | 536 | 111.9 | 103.5 | +8.3 |
But Rondo can't shoot and has become such a non-threat as a scorer that his presence on the court might actually make Anthony's life harder. Defenders could ignore Rondo to focus on players who actually plan to shoot once in a while. That's not ideal for Melo.
Patrick Beverley can hit an open three, but he's not a distributor at all.
Jackson's best teams have often functioned with journeyman point guards who could shoot and stay out of the way. Perhaps Steve Blake is also an option.
Jameer Nelson...now there's somebody who fits Karl's mold—a veteran guard who thinks the game, doesn't over-dribble, makes good decisions and can score when left alone. Nelson is hardly an inspiring option, but he might be the best fit of the talent available.
What's strange is that Jose Calderon offers what Karl described perfectly. And he's basically the optimal version of Prigioni. Unfortunately, Calderon didn't work out for the Knicks, which maybe means everything we've studied here, all the precedent we've sought out, is meaningless.
Calderon should have worked, but he didn't.
Maybe that's the triangle offense's fault. Maybe natural decline is to blame. Maybe it's simply time to recognize that Anthony isn't the kind of player around whom you build a team.
On that point, B/R's Dan Favale has a truth bomb for you:
"There's nothing that even remotely suggests Anthony is the type of player others can grow beside.
If it's not his leadership methods, it's his ball-dominant play style—that which does not accentuate the talent of those around him or, by present design, seamlessly fit into New York's presumed offensive ideology.
"
Here's what that means: Forget Karl's measured, experience-based advice. Instead, aim for a player who might actually be better than Anthony—one who won't sign up to grow beside him or fit in but will instead play his game and let Melo conform to him.
That's the Team USA plan. That's the Iverson plan. Maybe it could be the Goran Dragic plan.
Admittedly, pursuing a talent like Dragic, who'll be an unrestricted free agent this summer and could subjugate Anthony in the pecking order, goes against everything the Knicks have done to set Melo up as the organization's figurehead.
Getting him is unlikely anyway, as Dragic has already gushed about how much he loves playing for the Miami Heat.
But that's not the point. The point is, the Knicks need a lead guard who can make Anthony better. They need to close their eyes, hold their breath, hope the Heat fall asleep and shove a max offer toward Dragic as soon as they're allowed.
It's not a perfect point guard plan, but it's the best shot the Knicks have at making this thing work.
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
