Weighing the Pros and Cons of Indianapolis Colts Top Free-Agent Targets
The Indianapolis Colts, it seems, are going to be interested in every big-name free agent.
With $41 million in cap space, according to Spotrac, and no shortage of holes, the Colts can basically be forced into a "fit" with just about any free agent or potential cut candidate. So, as expected, they've already been linked, either directly or indirectly, to a number of top free agents.
But which of those free agents fits the best in Indianapolis, for the right cost? Who is worth taking a chance on, and who should the Colts go ahead and let sneak by?
DT Ndamukong Suh, Detroit Lions
1 of 5
Pros: Game-changer, makes those around him better, fills Colts top need
One of the biggest criticisms of Ryan Grigson in free agency over the last three years has been his tendency to go after mid-tier players instead of getting real game-changers, despite having oodles of cap space. Signing Ndamukong Suh would certainly break from the mold.
Suh is the lone free agent in this year's class that can, and does, take over entire games. By being a playmaking force along the defensive line, Suh can impact any given play and have optimal impact on the defensive side of the ball. He's been one of Pro Football Focus' top three defensive tackles for the last two seasons for good reason.
Considering that the Colts desperately need help on the defensive line with just one penciled-in starter currently on the roster, Suh certainly makes sense from a talent and need perspective.
Cons: $$$$$$$, scheme transition
But, nothing in this life is free, and a player with as much talent and upside as Suh will come at a high cost. Suh could command up to $125 million over seven years with $70 million guaranteed, per former Tampa Bay Buccaneers GM Mark Dominik (h/t Fox Sports' Alex Marvez). For the Indianapolis Colts, who have several key players' extensions looming, that cost will create serious doubts.
There is also the question of a scheme fit for Suh. Suh has been so productive in Detroit, in part, because he's been allowed to be a penetrating, one-gap defensive tackle. In the Colts' two-gap system, Suh may not have the same effect. He's talented enough to transcend scheme, but there will certainly be a transition period.
Final Verdict
If Suh was a slam-dunk transitional fit with no history of attitude problems, he might be worth the money. But for the Colts, who have Andrew Luck, T.Y. Hilton and Anthony Castonzo to extend within the next two years, there simply isn't room for a $125 million contract.
DL Pernell McPhee, Baltimore Ravens
2 of 5
Pros: Fills Colts need, versatile, experience with Pagano
One of the few defensive linemen on the free-agent market that wouldn't have much of a transitional period, Pernell McPhee already has experience with Chuck Pagano and the 3-4 hybrid defense that would make for an easy move from Baltimore.
McPhee really fits the Colts needs perfectly. While he played largely outside linebacker for the Ravens in 2014, he has the size and strength to play just about anywhere on the defensive line as well, and he has done so. His rookie season under Pagano was largely as a defensive tackle, and he posted a positive-20.8 grade from Pro Football Focus that season.
Cons: Unproven as a starter, Baltimore free agents trend, cost
There is, however, one big downside to McPhee that terrifies me. The former fifth-round pick has never been a full-time starter, starting just six games over his four-year career. When you combine that with the surrounding talent in Baltimore you get a player primed for regression elsewhere.
It's a trend with the Baltimore front seven, honestly. The talent in Baltimore and defensive culture is a great place for defenders to excel. When players like Danell Ellerbe, Arthur Jones and Paul Kruger have gotten paid big contracts elsewhere, their play has suffered. It's not surprising, given the context.
In this case McPhee would be leaving players like Haloti Ngata, Brandon Williams, C.J. Mosley, Terrell Suggs and Elvis Dumervil to play with Josh Chapman, Arthur Jones, Robert Mathis and Erik Walden. A decline in production is not just likely, it's inevitable.
Final Verdict
If McPhee really does reach the $10 million per year range, which Jason La Canfora of CBS Sports projected, then the Colts should look elsewhere for defensive line help. But Paul Kruger was once rumored to get something similar, and he ended up signing a deal worth about $8.1 million per year. If McPhee can come to Indianapolis for something similar, or less, then it may be worth kicking the tires on.
But if he's really looking for a blockbuster deal, the risk of severe regression is simply too much.
S Devin McCourty, Patriots
3 of 5
Pros: Elite cover safety, fills Colts need
The only free agent that could possibly challenge Suh for title of best overall defender, Devin McCourty has turned into one of the top three coverage safeties in the league over the last few years.
Along with Jairus Byrd and Earl Thomas, McCourty can play a center field role to mitigate the work for the rest of the defensive backfield. The Colts have needed such a safety for the last five seasons, but with the release of LaRon Landry this year, the need rose exponentially.
Cons: Cost
The only thing that may turn you off from McCourty is his prospective price tag. Byrd signed a six-year, $56 million contract last year, and while many don't think think McCourty is quite on the same level that Byrd was on, the fact that he's one of the league's best coverage safeties remains.
Final Verdict
McCourty is my No. 1 free-agent target in Indianapolis for a reason. They need a center field safety to help give their defensive backfield more talent and flexibility, especially against top-notch tight ends. McCourty can be an elite safety, for a price that pales compared to somebody like Suh.
G Mike Iupati, San Francisco 49ers
4 of 5
Pros: Scheme fit, solidify offensive line
If the Colts are serious about the power-run label they tried to put on the Colts back in 2012 and 2013, Mike Iupati is the best upgrade on the offensive line that will be available. He has experience in power-run schemes in San Francisco and would be a great introduction in the fall in Indianapolis.
Iupati is one of the league's most powerful run-blockers, and he would add toughness and veteran leadership to an interior line that has struggled to maintain either over the last three years. A run game would give the Colts offense a much-needed sense of balance, and Iupati may be the best available rushing attack upgrade.
Cons: Cost/value, pass protection
But while the run game must be improved this offseason, there is a serious question as to how much the Colts should spend in order to improve it. Passing is still king in the NFL, both in Indianapolis and elsewhere. How much does Iupati need to control the ground game to justify a top-end contract?
Final Verdict
In a vacuum, I would prefer Denver's Orlando Franklin to Iupati. Franklin is a better pass protector and has the flexibility to play outside at tackle as well. Iupati is much more limited, but those limitations are what the Colts need right now.
RB DeMarco Murray, Dallas Cowboys
5 of 5
Pros: Versatile player, top-end runner
It's tough to argue with one of the most productive runners over the last two years. Murray has the most DYAR by a running back over the last two years and was in the top five in DVOA in both 2013 and 2014, per Football Outsiders.
He's rushed for nearly 3,000 yards and 22 touchdowns in those two years while also catching over 50 passes in both 2013 and 2014. He's a three-down running back that is in the top six or seven backs in the league right now. Getting that caliber player would be a notable weapon for Pep Hamilton.
Cons: Cost, fit in Indianapolis
But Murray isn't one of the absolute best backs in the league, like Le'Veon Bell, Marshawn Lynch or Jamaal Charles. The Dallas running back has been helped by the best RB situation in the league as a Cowboy: A top-three run-blocking line in each of the last three years with a top quarterback-wide receiver combo to draw a defense's attention.
In Indianapolis, Murray would have a much murkier situation on the offensive line, and it would mean a big dip in production. There are just seven backs in the league that currently average more than $5 million per year, according to Spotrac.com. Is Murray worth that kind of money in a less-advantageous situation?
Final Verdict
There is no reason for the Colts to pay more than $3-4 million for a veteran running back in this year's class. The draft class is going to be loaded with running back talent, where the Colts can get much better value. While Murray is a nice player, he's not a transcendent player, and the Colts' cap space would be better off used elsewhere.
The Colts should instead look for a one or two-year deal for a veteran, somebody to help a rookie (think second-to-fourth round) transition into the league. Those two additions plus Dan Herron would make for a nice group for Andrew Luck.
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