Kansas City Chiefs Final Free-Agency Outlook and Predictions
The franchise-tag deadline has passed, and the Kansas City Chiefs were one of the few teams who used the tag on a player who could have been highly targeted had he become a free agent: Justin Houston.
Though the Chiefs used the non-exclusive tag, it is rare a team gives up two first-round picks through that kind of tag—it has not happened since 2000.
While working to re-sign Houston, the Chiefs are in a bind with how much cap space is available while in desperate need of wide receiver and offensive linemen.
Chiefs general manager John Dorsey has been heavily criticized for how he has handled certain contracts since joining the franchise in 2013.
Dorsey is on the clock and must prove himself before free agency period begins. In one week, free agency starts at 3 p.m. CT on March 10. By then, Dorsey must have created a lot of cap space and come away with some talent to help improve the Chiefs after falling just short of the playoffs.
Chiefs Must Keep Justin Houston, Give Him Long-Term Deal
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The contract situation between Joel Segal, Houston's agent, and the Chiefs have not gone well.
After failing to agree to a new deal within the past year, Houston benefitted from his 22-sack season. This gives him and Segal leverage and a reason to demand plenty of money, especially since Houston played for $2.78 million in four years with the team while being a big part of the defense.
Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk reported that Houston might consider waiting to sign his franchise tender until Week 10 of the 2015 season, and he intends to aggressively pursue an offer sheet from another team, which would have to give up a first-round pick in 2015 and 2016 if it wants to sign Houston.
On top of that, per Florio, Houston will consult with the NFLPA to explore the possibility of filing a grievance seeking the defensive end franchise tender, which is higher than a linebacker tender.
As if failing to agree to a deal and using the franchise tag was not enough, Florio's report shows signs that there is plenty of discontent with Dorsey.
Chiefs Need to Retain Rodney Hudson
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The Kansas City Chiefs had a terrible group of pass-blockers last season; Rodney Hudson was the only viable offensive lineman on the roster. Since Hudson did not receive the franchise tag, he is free to sign with another team.
The Oakland Raiders are linked to Hudson, as rumors are he is demanding $7 million per year, which the Chiefs are unable to afford while trying to keep Houston and opening cap space for free agency and the draft.
If Hudson signs with another team, the Chiefs are left with no reliable offensive linemen, which is bad news for quarterback Alex Smith and running back Jamaal Charles and could certainly put a big dent on their performance in 2015.
John Dorsey Has to Come Away with a Big WR Signing
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Eagles wide receiver Jeremy Maclin and Packers wide receiver Randall Cobb—two of the best wideouts in 2014—did not receive the franchise tag and are allowed to sign with any other team. Both receivers have connections to the Chiefs, as head coach Andy Reid drafted Maclin in 2009 with the Eagles and Dorsey drafted Cobb in 2011 with Green Bay.
Odds are, Kansas City can only afford one of those receivers.
The Chiefs can't go wrong with either, as both receivers would add speed and help the Chiefs become an end-zone threat. Maclin finished with 10 receiving touchdowns, and Cobb concluded his season with 12. Both receivers logged 1,000-yard receiving seasons, something the Chiefs have not had since the current regime took over.
It is no secret the Chiefs need a wide receiver, and it sounds reasonable to believe the could Chiefs add either Maclin or Cobb because both have connections to Reid or Dorsey.
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Restructure Multiple Contracts
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Wide receiver Dwayne Bowe is set to make $14 million; Tamba Hali is set to make nearly $12 million. Backup quarterback Chase Daniel could become a cap casualty, as he is set to make close to $5 million. There has already been a report from NFL.com's Conor Orr that Mike DeVito, who is projected to make $5.4 million, could be gone.
Releasing all four players gives the Chiefs $21.8 million in cap space, which is plenty of money to keep Houston and add either Maclin or Cobb. But it is doubtful the Chiefs go that route.
The Chiefs still need Bowe, and they certainly need Hali, who has been a huge part of the defensive dominance the past three years. But not everyone will agree to have their contracts restructured. Expect at least a couple of cap casualties.
Predictions
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Justin Houston situation: Houston will earn a new long-term deal, but it will take the entire offseason as Dorsey works to create more cap space as the season goes on. Houston will demand plenty of cash, especially since he worked for under $3 million to help the Chiefs become one of the best in the league against the pass.
Rodney Hudson 2015 forecast: Chiefs fans won't like this, but this is a business. The Chiefs can't afford to keep everyone nor afford every single key receiver and lineman in free agency. Hudson may have played his last game in a Chiefs uniform.
Maclin and Cobb possibility: With Philadelphia's quarterback situation, Maclin might be the most realistic option, as it is safe to assume Cobb will want to continue to play for Aaron Rodgers. But even so, Maclin comes at a high price, and the Chiefs already have problems keeping Houston. But in sports, reunions are common. Maclin's second option could be to join a team who he has familiarity with. With Reid in Kansas City, the Chiefs fit that bill.
Offensive linemen recruits: If the Chiefs want to focus on bringing in better offensive linemen, they have to do so through free agency and not the draft. Last time the Chiefs drafted an offensive linemen in the first round, it was Eric Fisher, who went No. 1 overall—and he has been unproductive for most of his two years. Dorsey is better off finding a proven veteran instead. Bryan Bulaga, Doug Free, Jeremy Parnell are some of the more notable available tackles, while the Chiefs have options in interior linemen in Orlando Franklin, Mike Iupati, Clint Boling, Stefen Wisniewski, Brian De La Puente and Samson Satele.
Cap casualties: Hali said in a radio interview with 610 Sports Radio in Kansas City that he is willing to play for less money. Bowe should take a pay cut, but it is doubtful he agrees to drop his rich contract, resulting in a release. DeVito and Daniel could also be gone, especially Daniel. $4.8 million for a backup quarterback is way too much, and Terrelle Pryor might be a better backup. Yes, he was a Raider and did poorly, but how often do players succeed in Oakland? He has upside and deserves a chance in Kansas City.
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