Projecting the Boston Red Sox 25-Man Roster at the Start of Spring Games

Despite what the weather in the Northeast would indicate, live baseball is upon us. 

The Boston Red Sox began their spring games by playing a split doubleheader against a pair of college teams this past Tuesday. They'll face their first MLB competition of the season Thursday when they square off against the Minnesota Twins. 

It may not be the most meaningful baseball ever, but there are things worth monitoring throughout March. It's an opportunity to study up on one's team and fantasize about the grand exploits the 2015 season may bring.

With the season of optimism comes roster forecasting, as 25-man units begin to take shape. That's the game we'll play here today: projecting which Red Sox make the final cut ahead of the April 6 regular-season opener. 

Starting Infield

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Locks

• Christian Vazquez, Catcher
• Mike Napoli, First Baseman
• Dustin Pedroia, Second Baseman
• Xander Bogaerts, Shortstop
• Pablo Sandoval, Third Baseman
• David Ortiz, Designated Hitter

Borderline But In

• N/A

Just Missed

• N/A

Boston's Opening Day infield is set in stone—a useful truth for someone tasked with projecting a 25-man roster. It's as safe to write in these six as it is for noted bracketologist Joe Lunardi to predict that ranked men's basketball teams will make the NCAA tournament. 

That's not to say there aren't questions within the bunch. Vazquez's offensive development is crucial to watch, the size of Sandoval's belly is always of interest, and the health of Pedroia and Napoli bears monitoring as they attempt to bounce back from unimpressive offensive campaigns. 

Bogaerts is arguably the most interesting of the group since tangible takeaways can be gleaned from his spring training play. One area the 22-year-old can mature offensively is to replicate his boyhood idol, Derek Jeter, and go the other way more often. 

The spray charts from Bogaerts' 2014 season that Fangraphs provides highlight his glaring inability to use the whole field. Most of the shortstop's opposite-field hits were really more to right-center than to right. The number of ground balls he peppered opposing third basemen with indicates he's rolling over a lot of pitches. He needs to work on cutting down his swing in certain situations to poke the ball through the hole between first and second base—just like vintage Jeter.

Most good batters excel at mashing against one pitch, and then they're either a plus-hitter versus at least one other offering or have no overwhelming weaknesses versus any single pitch. For example, Pedroia in his prime season of 2011 destroyed opposing fastballs (30 fastball runs above average, according to Fangraphs) and was a good hitter against curveballs (4.1 curveball runs above average, according to Fangraphs) while hovering around league average versus all other pitches. 

Bogaerts was mediocre versus every opposing pitch in 2014 except one: the slider. Unfortunately for him, the outlier wasn't a positive as he amassed a minus-9.8 runs above average rating vs. sliders (wSL), according to Fangraphs. It was the single-worst rating against the pitch in MLB last season.

He doesn't need to start crushing sliders in order to succeed, but Bogaerts can't have it be so damaging when pitchers attack his flaw. Ideally he'd start owning fastballs and cut his slider ineffectiveness in half (still a very poor minus-4.9 wSL mark that would have ranked in the bottom 15 last season) in order to spike his offensive output. 

Baseball's former No. 2 overall prospect has pedigree to thank for his stranglehold on the starting shortstop gig. I envision Bogaerts having a nice bounce-back season, but if he swoons the way he did for the greater part of 2014, he could find himself out of a job.

Say Shane Victorino is his 2013 version, Rusney Castillo establishes himself, and Mookie Betts proves last year was no fluke. It's conceivable that the Red Sox could experiment with shifting former second baseman Betts to shortstop in order to get all three of those players in the lineup. I'm not saying it's likely, but Bogaerts has a little more heat on him than most realize. 

Starting Outfield

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Locks

• Hanley Ramirez, Left Fielder
• Shane Victorino, Right Fielder
• Mookie Betts, Center Fielder

Borderline But In

• N/A 

Just Missed

• Rusney Castillo (On Bench)

Once again my job starts out really easy. New $22 million-per-year addition Ramirez has left field cornered, and John Farrell was adamant Victorino will get the first crack in right as long as he's healthy.

My stance on Betts is clear, and center field should be without question his job. However, he only got the "lock" label because of Castillo's oblique injury. Farrell told WEEI's Rob Bradford that Castillo will be sidelined for at least a week after getting hurt on March 4. With no firm return timetable, it's hard to imagine the Cuban will be able to do enough to overtake Betts before Opening Day. It's disappointing for Red Sox fans to be deprived of the enigma who was slated to be the most interesting guy to watch this spring.

If there is any silver lining to the Castillo injury, it's that it ends the dumbest perceived spring training battle in all of baseball. Betts was arguably Boston's best player during his 55-game stint last season. You don't bench a guy coming off that kind of success, who also happens to be your top leadoff option, for someone with 10 MLB games to his name.

It seems Farrell was of like mind even before Castillo strained his oblique, as Betts was the one playing alongside the other Red Sox starters in Boston's first spring game on Tuesday. While pitch values isn't the greatest predicting tool when looking at such a small sample size, it was encouraging to see Betts post above-average ratings against three pitches, according to Fangraphs. His heatmap displays his advanced plate coverage, and his spray chart indicates his willingness to go with the pitch and not try to do too much. 

There is a line of thinking that if Castillo isn't starting he should go to Triple-A to get everyday at-bats. I wouldn't be opposed to such a decision, though I imagine the $72 million Castillo commanded will at least warrant him a big league roster spot. He'll get playing time in all three outfield spots, but his greatest ability to vault into a larger role remains in right field, not center.

Victorino getting the initial nod is a classic sign of respect for a veteran. It's a decision I advocated for back in January before any managerial proclamations, and it's the right call. Even more so than Betts, the track record for Victorino speaks loudly. It's hard to demote someone who's had such prolonged success before real games begin for a relative newcomer.

But if the 34-year-old free-agent-to-be stumbles for the first month of the season or struggles with his health, then the door would prop ajar. With the Sox having no commitment to him beyond this season, Victorino needs to perform early to stave off a charge from Castillo. 

Bench

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Locks

• Allen Craig, First Baseman/Outfielder/DH
• Ryan Hanigan, Catcher

Hanigan will serve as the new-age David Ross: a solid defensive backup who will provide a veteran presence but will struggle offensively. He once was a .270 hitter and quality on-base guy, but the last two seasons he's batting just .208 with a .312 OBP over 159 games. He'll spell Vazquez every so often, at least until Blake Swihart has ensured he won't accrue a year of MLB eligibility. 

Craig has the potential to be pinch-hitting weapon deployed when the catcher's spot pops up in a key batting situation. Though more traditionally an NL role, the pinch hitter could serve the Red Sox well given the batting question marks that surround their backstops. A Napoli injury or more built-in off days to keep him fresh seems reasonable to expect, which means Craig should still see some 30 starts even as a reserve. 

Borderline But In

• Rusney Castillo, Outfielder
• Brock Holt, Utility
• Daniel Nava, Outfielder/First Baseman

The uncertainty of Castillo's injury and the notion that a full-time Triple-A role may be more beneficial knocks him down from "lock" status. However, I expect him to be on the 25-man roster. He still at the very least holds value as a defensive replacement late in games for Ramirez and can be utilized as a pinch runner. 

Holt and Nava both appear primed to earn Opening Day roles, but neither is an essential piece. Holt's versatility to play multiple positions defensively holds great value, but the split stats post-All-Star break were ugly (.219 average, .278 on-base percentage, .271 slugging in 192 at-bats). He has one minor league option remaining and could be sent down if Boston opts to keep an extra pitcher or if Sean Coyle and/or Deven Marrero have a strong camp.

Nava is out of minor league options, but at just $1.85 million he could easily be cut if Boston goes the extra pitcher/up-and-coming infielder route. Unlike Holt, Nava turned it on in the season's second half (.297 BA, .359 OBP). Then again, the Red Sox likely already saw the best of Nava in his 2013 career year, and the outfield logjam isn't going to dissipate after this season. 

Just Missed

• Jackie Bradley Jr. (Triple-A)
• Garin Cecchini (Triple-A)

Bradley Jr. is a defensive marvel but has been overmatched at the plate during both of his elongated stays with the Red Sox. On a deep roster there's no room for one-dimensional players. 

Following an impressive 2013 campaign split between High-A and Double-A, Cecchini was serviceable but failed to turn heads in Triple-A last season. His primary position of third base is also blocked for the foreseeable future now by Sandoval, further muddying how he fits on this team going forward.

Both once promising prospects would benefit from a change of scenery. They remain options to be included as smaller pieces in a trade for a high-end starter or a bullpen upgrade.

Rotation

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Locks

• Rick Porcello 
• Clay Buchholz
• Wade Miley
• Justin Masterson

You can take these four to the bank, folks. Masterson is the only one you may question at first glance, but when you factor in John Farrell's comments to CBS Boston about the value he places on past merit when constructing his rotation, the 6'6" righty gets the bump to lock status.

Before the complete tire fire that was 2014, Masterson earned an All-Star nod in 2013. He also posted a career-best 3.21 ERA in 216 innings in 2011, the lowest single-season mark of any Red Sox starter not named Clay Buchholz (who bested that twice but only managed 173.2 and 108.1 innings in those seasons).

Masterson is also a guy the Red Sox know well since he began his career coming up through the organization's farm system. Barring injury, Boston isn't going to shatter his confidence by snubbing him from the initial rotation. If he struggles mechanically, he's a candidate to be pulled from the starting staff until he proves he's found his consistent release point. 

Borderline But In

• Cole Hamels

People gripe about the constant projections of a Hamels acquisition, but this isn't being conjured out of thin air. He's by far the most available ace, and the Red Sox's interest has been widely reported from the moment the rumor mill started churning.

The latest speculation comes after a Comcast SportsNet report that special assistant to Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. was spotted at Red Sox camp Monday. The move was labeled "not common" by CSNNE's Sean McAdam and could indicate a deal is nearing fruition. 

It seems doubtful the Phillies would go to such lengths for a close-up of Blake Swihart or Henry Owens. It's clear what those top-tier prospects bring to the table, and if either was the centerpiece of a proposed trade package, this thing would be done already.

It's more likely Boston is trying to sell the Phillies brass on a growing stock like left-handed pitcher Brian Johnson or the allure of 20-year-old outfielder Manuel Margot. An in-person look at potential ancillary pieces Sean Coyle (more expendable than ever with Yoan Moncada in tow), Garin Cecchini and Matt Barnes also makes sense from a Philadelphia perspective. 

So while it's no certainty, I'll continue to fearlessly forecast a deal will be struck. There is copious amounts of smoke, it makes no sense for the Phillies to keep Hamels, and it would be ill-advised for the Red Sox to stop their rebuild at 90 percent completion. 

Just Missed

• Joe Kelly (In Bullpen)
• Henry Owens (Triple-A)

Kelly would be the real loser here. Owens simply needs more time to marinate, and the organization is in no rush to start his arbitration clock. But as NESN notes, the 26-year-old Kelly predicted back in January he'd win the AL Cy Young. While part of you has to respect his self-confidence, hubris doesn't guarantee results.

Just ask Rex Ryan. 

Earning baseball's premier pitching honor would certainly be a tall task for someone relegated to long-reliever/spot-starter duty. If the team does bring Hamels aboard and doesn't ship Kelly to Philly in return, it would take an injury or a Masterson/Buccholz meltdown for the right-hander to vault back into the starting staff. 

Bullpen

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Locks

• Koji Uehara, Closer
• Junichi Tazawa, Setup Man
• Anthony Varvaro, Seventh-Inning Man

This trio will serve as the backbone for Farrell's bullpen. Uehara's health/age concerns are common knowledge, and Tazawa has proved himself a dependable late-inning staple. Varvaro is the name most Sox fans may still be unfamiliar with.

The Sox acquired the 30-year-old from the Atlanta Braves in December. He's a fastball-curveball-changeup pitcher. Fangraphs notes the right-hander sits regularly around 93 mph and can ramp up close to 97 mph when he reaches for something extra. 

Varvaro compiled a 2.74 ERA in 128 relief innings over the past two seasons, trimming his walks in 2014 to help pave the way for his career-best year to date. He showed an improved K-rate last season but isn't a strikeout artist. He's more about inducing weak contact and generating ground balls (49.7 percent ground-ball rate in 2014).

Borderline But In

• Alexi Ogando, Middle Reliever
• Joe Kelly, Long Reliever
• Craig Breslow, Left-Handed Reliever

Just Missed

• Edward Mujica (Traded)
• Eduardo Rodriguez (Triple-A)
• Robbie Ross (Triple-A)

We touched on Ogando extensively earlier this offseason, and while he has upside, the number of physical red flags he has makes it so he can't be a lock. Breslow gets the pen's left-handed pitcher job at the onset simply because of his lack of minor league options. 

Boston went out of its way to re-sign Breslow, which leads me to believe it won't cut bait before the regular season. The Sox will let him try to prove he's regained his effectiveness and pull the plug if he shows his arm is fried. 

Ross can still be sent down two more times, so that makes the decision rather easy. The former Ranger will look to polish off his game after a poor 2014 season and be at the ready should Breslow falter. 

The Red Sox's acquisition of Rodriguez continues to look like a steal. Farrell sang the 21-year-old's praises again after the lefty's latest bullpen session, telling the Boston Herald, "He's been impressive every time he's put a ball in his hand."

Rodriguez's magnificence aside, he'll likely begin in the Triple-A rotation to continue his development as a starter. I detailed why he can be a valuable bullpen commodity, but there is no point in starting Rodriguez's service clock early for him to serve in a new/less impactful role. Realistically that would probably be a June option at the earliest and mean both Breslow and Ross failed. 

Mujica probably ends up getting dealt on the heels of my projected Cole Hamels addition. Bringing in the front-line starter would bump Kelly to the bullpen and put someone on the chopping block.

Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal reported at the end of January that Boston was open to trading the former Cardinals closer. His late-inning experience should make him enticing to some bullpen-needy team. Selling him for 10 cents on the dollar isn't ideal, but it's better than outright cutting the reliever and eating his $4.75 million salary.

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com or Fangraphs unless otherwise noted/linked. All prospect rankings courtesy of Baseball America unless otherwise noted.