Oklahoma City Thunder: NBA's Most Unpredictable Wild Card in 2015 Playoff Race
Everybody knows the Oklahoma City Thunder are dangerous, but what's changed lately is that nobody seems clear on what kind of danger they present.
For a long time, it was simple. There were two specific threat levels for OKC.
One was Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant. The other was Westbrook or Durant.
Each presented problems for opponents, with the former obviously being the scariest. Any time you've got two of the best five players in the league—as the Thunder do when KD and Russ are on the floor—you're a legitimate contender and a favorite to win most games on most nights.
Injuries have intermittently allowed us to see the less frightening solo acts of Durant and Westbrook over the past several seasons. Naturally, opponents prefer that scenario to facing OKC at full strength, but it's not exactly like anyone's thrilled to square off with either of those two.
Together this season, Durant and Westbrook have been highly productive, and the Thunder's results have been good:
| With Both | .667 | 107.6 | 98.3 | +9.3 |
| Overall | .552 | 102.8 | 100.5 | +2.3 |
This is hardly a surprise.
Oklahoma City reached the NBA Finals with a healthy Durant-Westbrook core (and some help from James Harden) three years ago, and the Thunder might have made it back since then if not for ill-timed injuries.
Durant's uncertain health introduces the first key variable in this season's stretch run. He's undergone two surgeries on his right foot, one to repair a Jones fracture before the season and another to alleviate discomfort resulting from that initial operation. The second procedure was far less invasive, and it's possible that when the Thunder evaluate him in the first week of March, they'll come away encouraged that a speedy recovery is likely.
Then again, Durant might be out longer. And whenever he does come back, perhaps he'll be rusty. Or still bothered by the toe injury that cost him four games. Or the sprained ankle that sidelined him for six.
Nobody can be sure what's ahead for KD, and that makes the Thunder's prospects difficult to peg.
Westbrook has been a monster this season, and he's thrived without Durant on the floor. Nobody's arguing the Thunder are somehow more potent without both of their stars healthy, but it's become clear that they're still extremely formidable with this tuned-up version of Westbrook wreaking havoc.
| With | 22.3 | 9.1 | 7.6 | 50.2 |
| Without | 35.0 | 8.6 | 7.0 | 55.8 |
Per B/R's Adam Fromal, who slotted Westbrook at No. 1 in his most recent NBA Superstar Rankings:
"Westbrook has been the driving force behind the Oklahoma City Thunder's ascent into the playoff picture, and he's the primary reason that Scott Brooks and Sam Presti shouldn't feel any need to rush Kevin Durant back from his latest foot issue. Westbrook has always played with unbridled and seemingly vitriolic passion, but now he seems more motivated than ever to embarrass the opposition.
"
It's true. We've never seen a version of Westbrook who could harness his raw talent into something that also makes teammates better. You know, like this, via Anthony Slater of The Oklahoman:
The secret behind Westbrook averaging 30.4 points, 10.2 assists and 8.7 rebounds in February?
Westbrook said, per Royce Young of ESPN.com:
"Just learning. I am taking what the defense gives me. There are different opportunities to take different shots and make different passes. My job is to come out and find a way to lead us. If it's scoring, it is scoring. If it is rebounding, it is rebounding. If it's passing, it is passing.
"
What's especially interesting about the Thunder now, though, is that there may be a third way to view them. In addition to Durant and Westbrook, and Durant or Westbrook, we've now got an improved cast of rotation players that could force defenses to divide their attention more than ever before.
Deadline deals brought in Enes Kanter, D.J. Augustin and Kyle Singler while sending out discontented backup Reggie Jackson. Mitch McGary has looked like a rotation player at times, and Kendrick Perkins—long an on-court negative—is gone.
Since adding reinforcements, the Thunder are 3-1, and they've gotten excellent production from their acquisitions.
Enes Kanter has been a force inside, averaging 15.8 points and 9.0 rebounds on 57.1 percent shooting. Kyle Singler has started in place of Durant, and he's been doing a little of everything, including hitting threes at a 36.4 percent clip.
D.J. Augustin hasn't quite settled into his role as second-unit leader, but he's been drilling treys at 42.9 percent.
Toss in Serge Ibaka's defense and floor-stretching jumper, Steven Adams' eventual return and the off chance Dion Waiters might get hot at the right time, and you've got a lot of options.
We're dealing in small samples, of course, but what the newly deep Thunder have shown is that they may be able to attack teams from more than one (or two) angles going forward. That's a big deal for a team so frequently maligned for its lack of strategic innovation and offensive diversity.
There's another factor that complicates any predictions about Oklahoma City, and it doesn't even have anything to do with the Thunder. The bottom half of the Western Conference playoff ladder is in a state of flux. The San Antonio Spurs have lost four in a row, the Los Angeles Clippers have dropped two straight without Blake Griffin and the Dallas Mavericks and Portland Trail Blazers have leveled off.
Who knows what the stretch run has in store for those teams?
The result of all this is that we can't be sure where the Thunder will end up in the playoff picture, who'll be there to face them or even which of their own superstar duo will be at full health for the series.
Any conceivable iteration of the Thunder is a threat over the season's final few weeks, and the same is true for the playoffs. OKC is beastly with both of its big guns, pretty darn good with just one and, now, newly dangerous by committee as well.
The Thunder are the devil you know, the devil you don't and the devil you've never even thought of, all rolled into one.
Have fun with that, Western Conference.
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
