Pre-Spring Practice Record Predictions for Top 25 College Football Teams
For most of us, the freezing void of winter might as well have no end. But for college football teams, spring is in bloom.
Stanford, Michigan and numerous other schools have already opened offseason camp, and the rest of the country will follow their lead by early March. Spring football is almost upon us, which means we're almost one tentpole closer to the season.
To celebrate this important milestone—and to make it seem like "one tentpole closer" doesn't mean "only six months to go!"—here's a wild stab at records for the Top 25 teams in the country.
The 25 teams compiled came from the way-too-early offseason composite, which polled the rankings of six different outlets, so I had no say over which teams were included. But I did have domain over how each team was judged and predicted.
To evaluate each team, I looked at obvious factors such as past performance, returning players, coaching turnover, schedule, etc., and developed a list of optimisms and skepticisms. For teams I feel are undervalued, I gave two reasons for optimism and one reason for skepticism. For teams I feel are overvalued, I gave one reason for optimism and two reasons for skepticism.
Sound off below and let us know what you think.
25. Oklahoma Sooners
1 of 25
Two Reasons for Optimism
1. Reloading on offense. First-year coordinator Lincoln Riley brings the air raid back to Norman, and Oklahoma has the skill players to run it. Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon form a thunder-and-lightning backfield, and Sterling Shepard, Durron Neal, Michiah Quick, K.J. Young and Dede Westbrook will create matchup problems at wide receiver.
2. Progression to the mean. OU was the fifth-least lucky team in the country in terms of turnovers, per Bill Connelly of Football Study Hall, and also bungled close games against TCU and Kansas State. Turnover luck and close-game success are essentially random stats that tend to normalize from season to season.
One Reason for Skepticism
1. They still don't have a quarterback. Or at least they might still not have a quarterback. Reigning starter Trevor Knight will battle Texas Tech transfer Baker Mayfield, redshirt freshman Justice Hansen and experienced backup Cody Thomas for the starting job, but none of those names has proved much at the FBS level.
Predicted Record: 9-3
24. Oklahoma State Cowboys
2 of 25
Two Reasons for Optimism
1. Mason Rudolph. The then-freshman quarterback saved Oklahoma State's dignity, leading the Cowboys to wins over Oklahoma in Bedlam and Washington in the Cactus Bowl. He showed a powerful arm and a surprising command of the offense, although he does need to limit the turnovers. Regardless, Rudolph played so well that he landed at No. 25 on the early Heisman odds board, per Odds Shark.
2. Program stability. According to Football Outsiders, the best indicator of a college team's success is how it has fared the previous five years. In Oklahoma State's case, that's a good thing: Even after ranking No. 67 in Football Outsiders' F/+ ratings last season, the Cowboys have been the No. 10 team in the country since 2010.
One Reason for Skepticism
1. The running game. Top-50 prospect Ronald Jones left for USC in December, leaving Oklahoma State with a pair of uninspiring backups (Rennie Childs and Raymond Taylor) and 3-star JUCO transfer Chris Carson in the backfield. The offensive line returns three starters but didn't do much in 2014, when the Cowboys finished No. 109 in the country in yards per carry (3.51).
Predicted Record: 10-2
23. Arkansas Razorbacks
3 of 25
Two Reasons for Optimism
1. Coaching advantage. Head coach Bret Bielema will always build a strong offense, and defensive coordinator Robb Smith will always build a strong defense. These things get truer with time, so with Bielema entering his third season and Smith entering his second, Arkansas should continue last year's late momentum.
2. The running game. This ties into point No. 1 but is so important that it demands elaboration. Jonathan Williams and Alex Collins are one of the five best running back duos in the country—and that is a wildly conservative number—and the Hogs return four starters from an offensive line that bullied opponents last season.
One Reason for Skepticism
1. Departures from the front seven. Arkansas loses its three best defenders—end Trey Flowers, tackle Darius Philon and linebacker Martrell Spaight—and might not have the depth to replace them. Who steps up and fills the leadership void?
Predicted Record: 9-3
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22. Missouri Tigers
4 of 25
One Reason for Optimism
1. The schedule. By SEC standards, what a cakewalk! Missouri avoids the top four teams from the West division, instead drawing a winnable home game against Mississippi State and a semi-winnable road game at Arkansas. Its only other road trips are to Arkansas State (win), Kentucky (likely win) and Georgia (probable loss).
Two Reasons for Skepticism
1. The passing game. What on Earth became of Maty Mauk? The redshirt sophomore regressed as much as any quarterback in the country—Penn State's Christian Hackenberg included—and now must replace his four leading receivers (Bud Sasser, Jimmie Hunt, Darius White and running back Marcus Murphy).
2. Can they reload the defensive line again? Missouri has lost four NFL-caliber ends in two years, and this time, unlike when Markus Golden and Shane Ray backed up Kony Ealy and Michael Sam, there are no sure-fire starters behind them. Redshirt sophomore Charles Harris showed flashes in 2014 and has a lot to live up to next season.
Predicted Record: 7-5
21. Wisconsin Badgers
5 of 25
One Reason for Optimism
1. The schedule. It's even easier than usual. Wisconsin plays its annual tough nonconference game (against Alabama on a neutral field) but should win almost every other contest. Its toughest Big Ten road trip is at Nebraska—a team it routinely slaughters—and it avoids Ohio State, Michigan State, Penn State and Michigan from the Big Ten East.
Two Reasons for Skepticism
1. Is Joel Stave still the quarterback? If not, it's either the equally unproductive Tanner McEvoy or one of three players (D.J. Gillins, Bart Houston and Austin Kafentzis) who have yet to take a meaningful FBS snap. Wisconsin doesn't need another Russell Wilson as much as someone who won't shoot himself in the foot. But none of these guys has proved he can even be that.
2. Staff turnover. Yes, head coach Paul Chryst was the offensive coordinator under Bret Bielema, but he's still new to most of these players. Same goes for offensive coordinator Joe Rudolph. It was salt in the wound when running backs coach Thomas Brown, one of the Badgers' top assistants, left for the same position at Georgia.
Predicted Record: 9-3
20. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
6 of 25
Two Reasons for Optimism
1. The offensive line. Georgia Tech returns four starters from the unit that carried last year's offense. The one starter it loses, right guard Shaquille Mason, happened to be the best player on the team, but Maryland transfer Nick Brigham is a capable replacement.
2. Defensive continuity. The Yellow Jackets struggled on defense last season but should improve with eight returning starters. Chief among the returnees is linebacker Paul Davis, who led the team with 119 total tackles and the ACC with 82 solo tackles.
One Reason for Skepticism
1. Skill players. Quarterback Justin Thomas wants to know where all his friends went: The Yellow Jackets lose their four top running backs (Synjyn Days, Zach Laskey, Charles Perkins, Tony Zenon) and their four top pass-catchers (DeAndre Smelter, Darren Waller, Deon Hill, Zenon) from 2014. Other than A-back Broderick Snoddy, who returns from a leg injury, who will replace that production?
Predicted Record: 9-3
19. Stanford Cardinal
7 of 25
Two Reasons for Optimism
1. The way the offense finished last season. Quarterback Kevin Hogan salvaged hope from a down junior year, completing 45 of his final 59 passes for 637 yards, four touchdowns and one interception. The running game still needs work, but college-ready freshman Trent Irwin joins Austin Hooper, Michael Rector and scatback Christian McCaffrey in a promising group of pass-catchers.
2. The schedule. Stanford replaces Utah with Colorado, which is big after dropping consecutive games to the Utes. Its only five road games are at Northwestern, USC, Oregon State, Washington State and Colorado, which means five of its six hardest opponents (and maybe even more if you're fond of Cal and UCF) come to Palo Alto.
One Reason for Skepticism
1. The defense loses a lot—like, a lot—of talent. No starters return on the defensive line; A.J. Tarpley, James Vaughters and Kevin Anderson are gone at linebacker; and Alex Carter, Jordan Richards, Kyle Olugbode and Wayne Lyons are gone from the secondary.
There's a realistic scenario in which Stanford's defense becomes what South Carolina's was last season. The Gamecocks had every reason to regress, but we ignored all the signs and believed in their recruiting and their coaching. I am willing to risk making the same mistake, since I believe in, well, Stanford's recruiting and coaching. But I won't say I didn't warn myself.
Predicted Record: 9-3
18. LSU Tigers
8 of 25
One Reason for Optimism
1. Skill players. Running back Leonard Fournette, the No. 1 overall recruit in the 2014 class, turned a corner late last season and is already a Heisman front-runner. Last year's top four receivers (Travin Dural, Malachi Dupre, John Diarse and Trey Quinn) were all underclassmen, and they'll all joined by true freshmen Tyron Johnson (the No. 5 incoming WR) and Derrius Guice (the No. 5 incoming RB).
Two Reasons for Skepticism
1. Quarterback issues. That's a copy-paste from pretty much every season of the Les Miles era. Anthony Jennings was a disaster in 2014, and true freshman Brandon Harris was only slightly better. Unless the Tigers lure Braxton Miller or Everett Golson to Death Valley (which they won't), one of those guys must make a giant leap.
2. Defensive coordinator Kevin Steele. Rather, defensive coordinator not-John Chavis. The Chief left for Texas A&M in January, and while Steele is not as bad as his last game as a coordinator indicates, he's also nowhere near Chavis' level. LSU does not have the dominant front seven of years past, so this new staff, which specializes in recruiting over strategy, will have to function out of its comfort zone.
Predicted Record: 8-4
17. Boise State Broncos
9 of 25
Two Reasons for Optimism
1. It's Boise freakin' State. No matter who it loses, it's the cream of the Mountain West Conference. Head coach Bryan Harsin won the Fiesta Bowl in his first season, just like Chris Petersen before him, and is a favorite to return every year until proven otherwise.
2. Defensive star power. The Broncos lose their best offensive players (see below) but return eight starters across the line. Defensive end Kamalei Correa and safety Darian Thompson made the All-MWC first team, and linebacker Tanner Vallejo and cornerback Donte Deayon made the All-MWC second team last season.
One Reason for Skepticism
1. The offensive backfield. Quarterback Grant Hedrick led the nation in completion percentage (70.8) last season, and running back Jay Ajayi is a future NFL starter with upside. How does Boise State replace them? True freshman Brett Rypien has a legit chance to start under center, and 5'8" Devan Demas is the top returning rusher.
Predicted Record: 10-2
15. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
10 of 25
Two Reasons for Optimism
1. Continuity. Notre Dame returns 19 starters—nine on offense, 10 on defense—and that's not even counting KeiVarae Russell, last year's projected No. 1 cornerback who missed the season with an academic suspension. No Power Five team returns more than 18.
2. Everett Golson and Malik Zaire. Ignore that maxim about how having two quarterbacks means you have none. You know what having two quarterbacks means? It means you have two quarterbacks.
No matter how head coach Brian Kelly distributes touches, Golson and Zaire can both lead this team to the playoff—and they proved as much against LSU in the Music City Bowl. Golson has the stronger arm, but Zaire is the better runner, so a platoon system, while suboptimal, is not out of the question if neither QB distinguishes himself.
One Reason for Skepticism
1. Golson. He's the only player in the country who counts as both a positive and a negative. When he's on, as he was at Florida State, he can will Notre Dame into a 60-minute game against a playoff team, but when he's off, as he was against Arizona State, he can cost it a game it has no business losing.
Because of his arm strength, Golson gives the Irish a slightly higher ceiling than does Zaire. But because of his recklessness, he also gives them a far lower basement. Personally, I prefer him as the starter, but it's easy to see why Kelly might choose Zaire.
Predicted Record: 10-2
15. Arizona Wildcats
11 of 25
Two Reasons for Optimism
1. Skill players. Head coach Rich Rodriguez wants to feed his athletes often, and next year's Wildcats boast more skill talent than any Rich-Rod team since West Virginia. Running back Nick Wilson is a superstar, and wide receivers Cayleb Jones, Samajie Grant, Trey Griffey and Nate Phillips provide a deep cast of options for redshirt sophomore quarterback Anu Solomon.
2. The Scooby factor. Butkus Trophy, Lombardi Award and Nagurski Award winner Scooby Wright returns for his junior season and is the consensus top defender in the country. He and Ohio State lineman Joey Bosa are the only unanimous All-Americans returning.
No matter what the Wildcats lose around him—six defensive starters, but nothing worth panicking over—Wright will keep this defense afloat. The rangy inside linebacker tallied 163 tackles, 29 tackles for loss, 16.5 sacks and six forced fumbles last season.
One Reason for Skepticism
1. Solomon. Was it injuries or something bigger that ailed him at the end of last season? His quarterback rating dropped each month, and he had three games with multiple interceptions. If he plays even solid football, Solomon can lead this team to a Pac-12 title. But if he plays like he did in December, this team won't go anywhere.
Predicted Record: 10-2
14. Georgia Bulldogs
12 of 25
One Reason for Optimism
1. The running game. As a true freshman Nick Chubb ran for 143 yards at Missouri, 202 yards at Arkansas and 266 against Louisville—the Nos. 12, 8 and 18 respective run defenses in the country, per the S&P+ ratings at Football Outsiders. Good luck stopping him, Sony Michel and Keith Marshall behind a line that returns four starters.
Two Reasons for Skepticism
1. The passing game. Who among Brice Ramsey, Jacob Park and Faton Bauta starts at quarterback? Who replaces Chris Conley, Michael Bennett and Jonathon Rumph at receiver? And, most importantly, how does new offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer fit at the college level? He earned a reputation for banal play-calling in the NFL, but this passing game needs to get creative.
2. The schedule. Georgia replaces Clemson with Georgia Southern but adds Alabama from the SEC West. That is a lopsided trade-off, especially since the Alabama game counts toward conference play. UGA also draws three of four road games against teams that can realistically beat it (Tennessee, Auburn and Georgia Tech).
Predicted Record: 8-4
13. Arizona State Sun Devils
13 of 25
One Reason for Optimism
1. Defensive continuity. The Sun Devils defense started slow but improved throughout last season, and now it returns nine starters and adds blue-chip JUCO linebacker Davon Durant.
If Durant brings back the "Devilbacker" position, which was perfected by Carl Bradford in 2012 and 2013 but eliminated in 2014, this defense has a high ceiling. Either way, a linebacker corps led by Salamo Fiso, Laiu Moeakiola and DJ Calhoun gives ASU a unit to build around.
Two Reasons for Skepticism
1. Are we sure about this offense? Scoring has never been an issue for head coach Todd Graham, but quarterback Taylor Kelly, left tackle Jamil Douglas and wide receiver Jaelen Strong played a big role in that success. Now all three are gone, and other than Mike Bercovici at quarterback, there aren't any sure-fire replacements on the roster. And it's not like Bercovici is that much of a sure thing.
2. Turnover luck. Arizona State was the third-most fortunate team in the country last season, gaining 4.69 points per game based on luck, according to Connelly. The Sun Devils recovered 64.9 percent of all fumbles—the fourth-highest ratio in the country—and intercepted 28 percent of their passes defended.
ASU enjoyed similar luck in 2013, which refutes but doesn't disprove the idea that these numbers regress to the mean. In some minds (my own included), it actually means ASU is due for a bad year.
Predicted Record: 6-6
12. Clemson Tigers
14 of 25
Two Reasons for Optimism
1. Deshaun Watson. The rising sophomore quarterback is college football's ultimate wild card. Based on his limited sample size, he has Heisman Trophy potential, but he's recovering from a torn ACL and also broke his collarbone last spring.
As long as he comes back healthy, though, Clemson has a chance to beat anyone. Watson was the No. 41 overall recruit in 2014 and would rank even higher if we regraded the class.
2. Offensive continuity. Coordinator Chad Morris became the head coach at SMU, but Clemson replaced him internally and brings back almost every contributing player. Running back Wayne Gallman, receivers Mike Williams, Artavis Scott and Germone Hopper and four starting offensive linemen ensure Watson will be well-supported.
One Reason for Skepticism
1. Defensive attrition. Clemson loses five starters from the best front seven in college football, chief among them defensive end Vic Beasley, defensive tackle Grady Jarrett and linebacker Stephone Anthony. There is depth on the roster to replace them—sort of—but a drop-off seems inevitable. The question is whether that drop-off becomes a big one or a small one.
Predicted Record: 11-1
11. UCLA Bruins
15 of 25
Two Reasons for Optimism
1. Continuity. UCLA ranks No. 6 in the country and No. 1 among Power Five teams with 18 returning starters. Three of the four players it loses—quarterback Brett Hundley, defensive end Owamagbe Odighizuwa and linebacker Eric Kendricks—were among the best in the country at their positions, but this is still an encouraging number.
2. Defensive coordinator Tom Bradley. The longtime Penn State assistant spent 2014 at West Virginia, quietly helping the Mountaineers improve their defense, and recently signed on to replace Jeff Ulbrich in Westwood. UCLA's defense has not been bad the past few seasons, but it has been inconsistent. Bradley will get the most out of Myles Jack, Eddie Vanderdoes and the rest of the Bruins' exciting pieces.
One Reason for Skepticism
1. Who replaces Hundley? The obvious answer is Josh Rosen, the No. 1 quarterback in the 2015 recruiting class, but UCLA is in win-now mode: Can it really hang its hopes on a true freshman? He's already more polished than Asiantii Woulard, and his upside is higher than that of Jerry Neuheisel, but Rosen remains the biggest question for an offense that is otherwise Pac-12 title-worthy.
Predicted Record: 9-3
10. USC Trojans
16 of 25
One Reason for Optimism
1. Star power. Scholarship restrictions affected depth, but USC never stopped signing the best high-end talent. Quarterback Cody Kessler, wide receiver JuJu Smith, cornerback Adoree' Jackson and safety Su'a Cravens have all flashed All-America potential, and nine of the top 70 true freshmen in the country will arrive by fall camp.
Two Reasons for Skepticism
1. Depth issues. The Trojans signed a 26-player class in February, but their previous three cycles yielded 20 players (2014), 12 players (2013) and 16 players (2012). The sanctions from the Reggie Bush benefits scandal have another year left to reverberate before they disappear. If they stay uncommonly healthy, the Trojans can overcome depth issues in 2015. But doing so requires luck instead of skill.
2. Seven-win Steve. Head coach Steve Sarkisian has never struggled at acquiring talent, but he has struggled at maximizing talent. After three straight six-loss seasons at Washington, he finally broke through at 8-4 before coming to the Trojans and losing four games again in 2014. No matter what his roster looks like, it's hard to bank on Sark winning 10 or more games until he's done it.
Predicted Record: 9-3
9. Florida State Seminoles
17 of 25
One Reason for Optimism
1. Skill players. Florida State will beat you on the perimeter. Last year's blue-chip freshmen—running back Dalvin Cook and wide receivers Travis Rudolph and Ermon Lane—all earned meaningful playing time, with Cook and Rudolph in particular standing out. Mario Pender, Ryan Green and newcomer Jacques Patrick flank Cook in the backfield, while 5-star freak-of-nature George Campbell (6'3", 184 lbs, 4.36 40-yard dash) joins Rudolph and Lane at receiver.
Two Reasons for Skepticism
1. Close-game regression to the mean. Florida State won seven games by six or fewer points last season. Its only loss came by 39. Going 7-0 in one-score games is unsustainable, no matter your opinion on statistics and regression. FSU either (1) defies probability (again), (2) blows out everyone it plays or (3) loses one or two games. Those are its only three options, and of them No. 3 seems the most realistic.
2. Who replaces Jameis Winston? The only quarterback on the roster with experience is Sean Maguire, and that experience consists of an up-and-down game against Clemson. Redshirt freshman JJ Cosentino has potential, as does late-enrolling freshman Deondre Francois, but no matter how you slice it, there will be fewer late-game heroics from the quarterback. And that is something FSU relied on.
Predicted Record: 10-2
7. Ole Miss Rebels
18 of 25
One Reason for Optimism
1. The class of 2013. Assuming Laquon Treadwell and Laremy Tunsil recover from their injuries, Ole Miss has four 5-star juniors hitting their strides. Treadwell (a wide receiver), Tunsil (a left tackle) and 3-star tight end Evan Engram handle the offense, while defensive tackle Robert Nkemdiche and safety Tony Conner anchor the defense. All five have declare-early-for-the-NFL-draft potential, so Ole Miss must strike now, before the iron turns cold.
Two Reasons for Skepticism
1. The offense. Ole Miss has questions at every spot but wide receiver. Can Clemson transfer Chad Kelly, who comes to Oxford via JUCO and with a checkered off-field history, be trusted to start at quarterback? Can Ryan Buchanan or DeVante Kincade supplant him? Can a running game that's averaged 4.3 yards per carry under head coach Hugh Freeze turn the corner and support a young QB?
Good luck banking on any of that.
2. The schedule. Road trips to Alabama and Auburn will likely result in losses, and even if they don't, the Rebels host Texas A&M, Arkansas and LSU and travel to Florida (harder than it sounds), Memphis (way harder than it sounds) and Mississippi State. Assuming no two-loss team makes the playoff, can we really call Ole Miss a contender? Because that's what a top-eight ranking implies.
Predicted Record: 8-4
7. Auburn Tigers
19 of 25
Two Reasons for Optimism
1. Will Muschamp. Auburn hired Muschamp as its new defensive coordinator less than two weeks after his final game as head coach at Florida. The Gators finished No. 5 in the country and No. 1 in the SEC in yards per play allowed (4.55) last season—and that was the year that led to Muschamp's termination. The new DC should revive Auburn's weaker unit, which does not lack raw talent, in no time.
2. The schedule. Auburn plays in the SEC West, which of course means the schedule is hard, but odd-numbered years work in its favor.
Unlike last year, when it made road trips to Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Georgia and Alabama, it will host that quartet on the Plains. Its hardest road games are at LSU—which it beat 41-7 last season—Arkansas and Texas A&M, and it replaces a nonconference road trip to Kansas State with a slightly easier neutral-field game against Louisville.
One Reason for Skepticism
1. Skill players. It's tempting to believe in Gus Malzahn's system and assume the offense will be fine. But what if we're not giving last year's players enough credit? What if there's a reason Nick Marshall started over Jeremy Johnson, even though Johnson seemed so tantalizing? What if Cameron Artis-Payne was even better than Tre Mason? What if Sammie Coates was the key to this passing game?
Personally, I don't believe any of that stuff: Johnson is a legitimate Heisman dark horse, Jovon Robinson and Roc Thomas will thrive at running back, and there's enough depth behind D'haquille Williams to survive the loss of Coates. But I won't dismiss the chance that I'm wrong.
Predicted Record: 11-1
6. Michigan State Spartans
20 of 25
Two Reasons for Optimism
1. Unfinished business. Three of Sparty's four underclassman draft prospects—quarterback Connor Cook, offensive tackle Jack Conklin and defensive end Shilique Calhoun—returned for another season. Cornerback Trae Waynes was the only departure.
"I have unfinished business that I want to do, that I want to accomplish next year," Cook said in December, per Noah Trister of The Associated Press. Fortunately, Calhoun and Conklin both bought in.
2. The lines. Both of them. Center Jack Allen made the All-Big Ten first team, and younger brother Brian Allen, a guard, was named a FWAA Freshman All-American. Both return with Conklin next season.
Defensive tackle Malik McDowell also made the Freshman All-America team, living up to his hype as a 5-star prospect. He and fellow blue-chipper Lawrence Thomas, who finally scratched the surface of his potential in 2014, will join Calhoun on the defensive front.
One Reason for Skepticism
1. The schedule. Michigan State lost to both CFP Championship Game participants (Ohio State and Oregon) last season and plays them both again in 2015. Oregon travels to East Lansing and Michigan State heads to Columbus, which is different but probably worse than last year since only the OSU game counts toward the Big Ten record.
Predicted Record: 10-2
5. Oregon Ducks
21 of 25
One Reason for Optimism
1. Skill players. Whoever starts at quarterback will have a deep cast of weapons around him, especially in the backfield, where Thomas Tyner, Royce Freeman, "taser" Byron Marshall and the best incoming class of running backs in the country make camp.
But the talent extends to wide receiver, where 2013 starter Bralon Addison—now one year removed from ACL surgery—joins a group that returns its top three and four of its top five players.
Two Reasons for Skepticism
1. Who replaces Marcus Mariota? Vernon Adams posted Mariota-like numbers at Eastern Washington, but he won't join the team until the summer. Oregon will start either an untutored FCS transfer (Adams), an uninspiring backup (Jeff Lockie) or a redshirt freshman (Morgan Mahalak) at the most important spot on the field. Adams and Mahalak have star potential, but on paper that's a pretty big risk—especially with a trip to East Lansing on the horizon September 12.
2. Losses in the back seven. The Ducks had a quietly impressive secondary last season, but cornerbacks Ifo Ekpre-Olomu and Troy Hill and safety Erick Dargan all depart. So do senior linebackers Derrick Malone Jr. and Tony Washington.
Have the Ducks developed enough depth to replace those guys? Especially at cornerback, things look dicey. Defensive coordinator Don Pellum, a longtime Ducks assistant but only a second-year coordinator, has some proving to do next season.
Predicted Record: 10-2
4. Alabama Crimson Tide
22 of 25
One Reason for Optimism
1. Recruiting. This is the default answer for Alabama every season. Nick Saban won his fifth straight recruiting national championship in 2015, which means every non-transfer player on this roster was part of the top class in the country. No matter how many holes need to be filled—and there are plenty—Alabama has the bodies to fill them.
Two Reasons for Skepticism
1. Pass defense. Alabama needs star rankings to matter at cornerback, where it has signed four 5-star prospects the past two cycles but still lacks definitive answers. And where is the patented All-America candidate at safety? Is Geno Smith supposed to fill the role of Landon Collins, Ha Ha Clinton-Dix and Mark Barron? The past two classes need to reach their potentials—and fast.
2. Pass offense. Quarterback Blake Sims, Biletnikoff Award winner Amari Cooper and starting receivers DeAndrew White and Christion Jones all depart. Five highly touted candidates are competing to start at quarterback, but combined they've thrown 100 college passes (all by redshirt senior Jake Coker), and no returning receiver has more than 300 career receiving yards.
For most schools, 2015 would be chalked up as a rebuilding year. But Alabama isn't most schools—and especially after Ohio State won the national title in a so-called "rebuilding year," expectations say this team can go the distance. I just wonder if that's asking too much.
Predicted Record: 10-2
3. Baylor Bears
23 of 25
Two Reasons for Optimism
1. The defensive line. Even more than some of those old receiving corps, this is the best position group Art Briles has ever coached. Defensive end Shawn Oakman bypassed the NFL draft—in which he would have been a first-round pick—and is flanked by returning starters Andrew Billings, Beau Blackshear and K.J. Smith.
2. The offense is in good hands. Whether Seth Russell, Jarrett Stidham or Chris Johnson starts at quarterback, he'll be aided by one of the best offensive lines in the country (four returning starters including All-American LT Spencer Drango), a threesome of proven running backs (Shock Linwood, Johnny Jefferson, Devin Chafin) and almost too many explosive pass-catchers to count (KD Cannon, Corey Coleman, Jay Lee, Davion Hall, Ishmael Zamora, et al.).
One Reason for Skepticism
1. The schedule. Man, that thing is back-loaded. Baylor is a virtual lock to start the season 7-0, but beginning Thursday, November 5 in Manhattan, Kansas, it plays at Kansas State, home to Oklahoma, at Oklahoma State and at TCU in four consecutive weeks. Then it gets a bye before hosting Texas to end the season. You'd prefer those games fall evenly across the schedule instead of clumping together.
Predicted Record: 11-1
2. TCU Horned Frogs
24 of 25
One Reason for Optimism
1. The offense brings back everything. Left tackle Tayo Fabuluje is the only departed starter, and Aviante Collins, a rising senior, seems like a capable replacement. Quarterback Trevone Boykin, running back Aaron Green, receivers Josh Doctson and Kolby Listenbee and, most importantly, coordinators Doug Meacham and Sonny Cumbie are all back from last year's No. 2 scoring offense.
Two Reasons for Skepticism
1. Turnover luck. No team was more fortunate than TCU last season. The Horned Frogs intercepted 33 percent of their passes defended, per Connelly, and gained 6.34 points per game based on luck. (No other team gained more than 5.15.) Even if they force turnovers at a decent clip, they are primed for considerable regression.
2. Who's playing linebacker? Paul Dawson (136 tackles) had an All-American senior season, and Marcus Mallet (100 tackles) was about as good. Sammy Douglas, Paul Whitmill, Ty Summers and true freshmen Alec Dunham and Mike Freeze will compete for the starting jobs, but none of those players has proved much at the FBS level.
Predicted Record: 9-3
1. Ohio State Buckeyes
25 of 25
Two Reasons for Optimism
1. The offense. Ohio State returns three potential All-Big Ten quarterbacks (J.T. Barrett, Cardale Jones, Braxton Miller), the MVP of the College Football Playoff (Ezekiel Elliott) and four starting offensive linemen. Even with a new offensive coordinator (Tim Beck), head coach Urban Meyer will keep this unit ticking.
2. The defense. Lineman Joey Bosa was a unanimous All-American, linebackers Joshua Perry, Darron Lee and Raekwon McMillan have NFL potential, and defensive backs Eli Apple and Von Bell will compete to make the All-Big Ten first team. This defense isn't dominant, but it doesn't need to be; it merely needs to get the job done. Last year's defense did, and next year's should be better across the board.
One Reason for Skepticism
1. Winning streaks are hard. There's a reason we see so few back-to-back champions. Ohio State is better than every team on its schedule and will likely give a touchdown or more each weekend. But there will always be games that come down to a weird bounce, a blown call, a turnover. Florida State enjoyed absurd close-game luck last season, which has duped us into thinking long winning streaks are common.
They aren't. I just don't have the stones to pick against it.
Predicted Record: 12-0
Note: All recruiting info refers to the 247Sports composite rankings.
Follow Brian Leigh on Twitter: @BLeigh35
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