5 Cincinnati Reds Players Who Will Determine If They're a 2015 Contender

The stakes are a bit higher this season. Johnny Cueto may be pitching his last season in uniform, and while Mike Leake and Homer Bailey are both front-of-the-rotation-type talents, they are far from ace status. It's hard to succeed without at least one of those.

If the Reds are out of it by the All Star break, expect Cueto to be shipped before August. It would be wasteful to hang onto him then, and many people are already suggesting the Reds trade him now to get optimal value in return. The longer Cueto's in Cincinnati, the more his trade value suffers, as the amount of control a team would potentially have over Cueto lessens daily.

But this is hopefully just meaningless fodder. Because if the Reds play to their potential, they'll undoubtedly compete for the National League Central. There's just too much talent on the roster to not compete and be taken seriously.

The following is a short list of five guys on the roster whose performance will likely determine the trajectory of this team. The list is made up of guys who may have something to prove after last season, so it won't feature all of the obvious must-haves, even if it features some. The list will range from important to critical. 

5. Devin Mesoraco, C

Devin Mesoraco was largely responsible for any offense the Reds managed to muster last year. He slashed .273/.359/.534 in 114 games. According to Reds manager Bryan Price, that workload will increase. He offered the following to Hal McCoy of the Dayton Daily News: 

"

"I’ve been asked that question a lot about Mesoraco playing first base,” said Price. “How much would he play? Only if Votto was injured. Realistically, I see him as a Yadier Molina type guy who is going to catch 145 games a year, more so than I see him catching 110 a year and playing 20 or 30 at first base."

"

Increased playing time is definitely a good thing for an offense in need of more production. And at least according to his 2014 splits, he performed great as a starter. He started 105 games and slashed .274/.361/.540. 

Whether or not he's insertable in the middle of the lineup is still a matter of debate. From the fourth spot in the lineup, he slashed .224/.342/.426 in 53 games from that spot. But he hit 10 home runs there, a notable figure, especially if a healthy Joey Votto is batting in front of him.

The Reds need Mesoraco to contribute like he did. His 25 home runs and 80 RBI are enticing, but his .359 OBP says he's insertable virtually anywhere. I like the idea of his playing time increasing, and I think the Reds get better because of it. 

The problem is that last year was the best Mesoraco had hit yet, though it's the most plate appearances he saw in a season. But is it repeatable? Or is Mesoraco somewhere closer to his career .245/.315/.432? His bat will demonstrate as much, but his contribution is all but mandatory. 

4. Tony Cingrani, SP/RP

If the Reds are going to win in 2015, it's going to take a lot of #CingraniFace. The biggest variable facing the Reds coming into 2015 is the back end of its starting rotation now that both Mat Latos and Alfredo Simon are pitching in different uniforms. Cingrani makes for an enticing option to fill one of the two spots.

A quick look back at Cingrani's nasty 2014–in 11 starts, Cingrani went 2-8 with a 4.55 ERA before being demoted to Triple-A and ultimately the DL after a shoulder injury. He only managed 63.1 innings before going to Louisville.

For the Reds to compete this season, they'll need the 2013 version of Cingrani, the one who went 7-4 with a 2.92 ERA and a sick 1.099 WHIP. That season, Cingrani had 120 strikeouts in 104.2 innings. What a difference a year makes–he went from a 2.2 WAR in 2013 to a -0.2. 

According to John Fay of The Cincinnati Enquirer, via Twitter, Cingrani's recovery is going great, and he's ready to go.

"

Price said Cingrani threw without any issue yesterday. Threw fastballs and breaking balls. “Said he felt awesome.” #reds

— John Fay (@johnfayman) February 20, 2015"

A healthy Cingrani legitimizes the back end of the Reds rotation and immediately improves the outlook of the Reds.

3. Jay Bruce, RF

Jay Bruce, along with another polarizing, high-paid Red, can be found at the center of most discussions involving the 2014 offense. And with reason. Bruce slashed just .217/.281/.373 in 137 games. He hit only 18 home runs, a steep decline from the 30 in 2013.

Many people will focus on how his RBI went from 109 in 2013 to 66 in 2015. But there's an easy answer for that kind of drop-off. In 2013, the Reds' team OBP was .327, sixth-best in baseball and second in the National League. In 2014, the Reds' team OBP was .296, second-worst in the entire sport.

Correlation never equals causation, but it would take liquid courage to call it a coincidence. 

I also don't think it's much of a coincidence that Bruce suffered his worst professional season in seven years in a year in which he had arthroscopic knee surgery midseason. 

He was hitting just .216 with three home runs before finally going on the disabled list. Considering Bruce is hitting a career .251, in seven years of professional baseball experience, it's hard to pretend like last year was anything more than a statistical outlier related to injury.

Last year was the first season Bruce has hit fewer than 20 home runs. Consider this: Bruce played in 65 wins and 72 losses. In Reds wins, Bruce slashed .276/.337/.470. In losses, he slashed .165/.231/.287.

2. Homer Bailey, SP

If not for the guy sitting in the No. 1 spot, this may be the most critical Red in 2015, minus the obvious ace of the staff, whose contribution goes without saying. With Latos gone, Homer Bailey now becomes the No. 2. His return to form is critical.

And there's no reason to suspect he won't deliver. Prior to last season, which by all means was a great year for Bailey minus the DL, Bailey had decreased his ERA in five straight seasons. He threw over 200 innings in 2012 and 2013. He finished 2014 with 145.2 innings and a 3.71 ERA with a 9-5 record. 

Again, it's a matter of statistical trajectory. Not only did Bailey drop his ERA in five straight years, but his WHIP dropped in five straight years too. And in 2013, Bailey's strikeout-per-nine-innings rate was a career-high 8.6.

Meaning despite putting together a solid 2014 season, it probably could have been a lot better, at least according to his trajectory. And the Reds will really need the kind of elite production from 2013, but unfortunately, he's already projected to miss Opening Day. In an interview with C. Trent Rosecrans of The Cincinnati Enquirer, Price said:

"

He's well on his way and we have complete faith he'll be able to go at some point in time fairly early in the season," Price said on Wednesday. "I don't know if it's going to be Opening Day, but I don't imagine we'll be talking about May, either."

"

1. Joey Votto, 1B

Because, who else? Outside of Johnny Cueto, who has virtually no question marks surrounding him after an almost-Cy Young 2014 season, who else is more vital to the success of the Reds? Votto wouldn't have made this list had he not been injured last year because, of course, Votto's performance will determine if the Reds contend. The reason he tops this list is because somehow he's shrouded in doubt and skepticism, for no good reason.

Joey Votto is arguably the most polarizing professional athlete in Cincinnati, rivaled only by the Cincinnati Bengals' Andy Dalton. After unapologetically slashing .255/.390/.409 in just 62 games, he's suddenly become the poster child in the great debate between old-school Tea Marty-ists who believe in home runs and RBI, and new-school saber nerds who worship at the altar of Fangraphs.com.

But regardless of how you feel about the topic, one thing is certain: If Joey Votto doesn't contribute in a significant fashion, the Reds cannot compete. Whether he's getting on base at an absurd rate, hitting 40-plus doubles or 20-plus home runs, he has to contribute in a big way again.

Votto is slashing a career .310/.417/.533 in eight seasons. He's won one MVP, one Golden Glove and has made four All-Star appearances. This is the guy they're paying $14 million this year. For that kind of career line, it's money well-spent.

Questions about his health are both warranted and fair. But for the Reds to have any chance at competing this year, Votto has to be healthy. Even if he performs to his 2013 line, .305/.435/.491, the Reds are exponentially better than last season, especially if the aforementioned guys in this article are healthy and performing with him.

This is a product that prior to last year had managed 90 to 90-plus wins in three of four years. The talent is there. With good health and a little luck, it's not far-fetched to see this team returning to the postseason. 

Stats courtesy of Baseball-reference.com unless noted otherwise.