The Biggest X-Factor for Every 2015 NBA Title Contender
Aren't we supposed to have some idea of which teams are truly the biggest title threats at this point in the season? The All-Star break is behind us, and players can no longer be traded, so rosters are pretty much set for the stretch runs.
And yet, we still have no idea. The title race feels completely wide open in both conferences.
We're limiting ourselves to 10 teams here, but do note that the Dallas Mavericks (Rajon Rondo as the X-factor), Los Angeles Clippers (Spencer Hawes) and Washington Wizards (Bradley Beal) all deserve mentions. They're not contenders to the point that they earned featured spots, largely for chemistry and health reasons, but they're still quite good at this whole basketball thing.
So what exactly is an X-factor?
It's not necessarily the team's best player, though it can be in some cases. Instead, it's the player who has the biggest impact on the squad's ceiling, as they can single-handedly push the organization to that proverbial next level.
The Golden State Warriors, for example, are the best team in the NBA, but they can leave everyone in the dust when their X-factor is rolling.
Atlanta Hawks: Pero Antic
1 of 10
Position: PF
Age: 32
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 5.7 points, 3.0 rebounds, 0.8 assists, 0.2 steals, 0.3 blocks, 8.8 PER
The Atlanta Hawks, much like the San Antonio Spurs of years past (there's that omnipresent comparison again), are a team that relies on chemistry and cohesive ball movement to such an extent that they basically defy the very notion of an X-factor. When one player is off, the rest of the squad is able to pick up the slack. No one even knows who will take the last shot in a close game—at least, not until that very play is unfolding.
Nonetheless, Pero Antic takes center stage as the Hawks' X-factor, solely because his shot has been so off lately that defenses aren't respecting his floor-spacing ability at all.
When the Macedonian big man is connecting from the perimeter, he can spread out the other team and force defenders to avoid helping off him. And that just hasn't been the case lately.
Since Christmas, Antic has scored 5.9 points per game, but he's received a steady stream of nights off and has shot only 32.4 percent from the field and 28.1 percent from beyond the arc. Now, it's a routine sight to see Antic standing beyond the arc while his man edges away from him. And when the ball finds him, it often clangs off the back iron. That doesn't exactly strike fear into the hearts of the opposition.
Antic still brings plenty to the table. He's a solid and crafty interior defender, and his swing passes allow the Hawks to whip the ball around the perimeter. But unless Antic fixes his shot, Hawks coach Mike Budenholzer will find it tough to justify handing him big minutes.
Chicago Bulls: Derrick Rose
2 of 10
Position: PG
Age: 26
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 18.6 points, 3.1 rebounds, 5.0 assists, 0.7 steals, 0.3 blocks, 16.3 PER
On some nights, Derrick Rose looks completely washed up. He fails to gain any sort of penetration into the teeth of the defense, coughs the ball up incessantly and throws one brick after another at the basket. On other nights, his performances are eerily reminiscent of what we saw during his pre-injury seasons, when he could single-handedly carry the Chicago Bulls for large stretches of games.
Not so surprisingly, the version of Rose we see correlates rather strongly with Chicago's results.
In Windy City victories, the dynamic point guard is averaging 20.1 points, 2.8 rebounds and 5.1 assists per game while shooting 45.1 percent from the field and 33.6 percent from beyond the arc. But when the Bulls lose, he's posting just 16.1 points, 3.5 rebounds and 4.8 dimes per contest. Even worse, that diminished scoring is coming on 35.1 percent shooting from the field and a 23.4 percent clip on his three-point attempts.
Obviously, that's a big difference.
Chicago head coach Tom Thibodeau also believes that Rose's performance has an enormous impact on the team's overall play.
"Well, he’s the catalyst," Thibodeau said, per Joe Cowley of the Chicago Sun-Times. "Your point guard unites and inspires your team, so the more energy and pace he's playing with, the better it is for us. But he's not the only one. Everyone has to have that responsibility. How hard you run the floor, how quickly you move the ball, all those things."
Everyone might have that responsibility, but Rose is the one who can elevate this team's ceiling most.
Cleveland Cavaliers: J.R. Smith
3 of 10
Position: SG
Age: 29
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 13.0 points, 3.0 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 1.7 steals, 0.2 blocks, 14.4 PER (with Cleveland Cavaliers)
This isn't about offense.
J.R. Smith can certainly contribute to the scoring abilities of the Cleveland Cavaliers, whether he's raining in contested shots from the perimeter or dazzling crowds—and an exuberant LeBron James—with his double-clutch reverse alley-oops. But it's not as if the surging Cavs need too much scoring help, as they have a trio of stars more than happy to carry the burden there.
Instead, Smith is an X-factor on defense, where he's been a part of a unit that's been much better lately at preventing the other team from posting gaudy totals. The 29-year-old was a negative contributor on the less glamorous end while with the New York Knicks, but defense is often contagious. It's a lot easier to settle into that stance and have the proper mentality when the effort leads to victories.
When Smith has been off the court this season—including the portion of the campaign that came before a midseason trade brought him to Northeast Ohio—the Cavs have allowed 108.1 points per 100 possessions. With Smith on the floor, that number drops to 103.9.
That isn't just a function of Smith playing with the right people. He's been a defensive asset, one capable of using his enduring athleticism to lock down his man. According to NBA.com, Smith is holding his assignment to 42 percent shooting since coming to Cleveland, down from the 43.7 percent they typically shoot from the field.
So long as he keeps up that level of intensity—particularly when closing out against perimeter shooters, as he's done so well since being traded—the defensive ceiling of these Cavs will be significantly higher.
Golden State Warriors: Marreese Speights
4 of 10
Position: PF
Age: 27
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 11.7 points, 4.9 rebounds, 0.9 assists, 0.2 steals, 0.5 blocks, 19.8 PER
"Could the Warriors smoothly welcome [David] Lee back into the rotation and continue to play at an elite level? It might be tricky, but yes," Daniel O'Brien of Bleacher Report posited when the current campaign was still very much in its infancy. "But with the way [Marreese] Speights is playing and the way the team is clicking, Golden State may have the luxury of deeming Lee dispensable."
O'Brien had plenty of evidence to back up that sentiment early in the season. Speights was flat-out rolling and looked as though he could be one of the favorites for Sixth Man of the Year. But now, the 27-year-old big man is going through an extended slump.
During Speights' last 11 games, he's averaging 8.2 points, 4.5 rebounds and 0.5 assists per contest while shooting a putrid 39.1 percent from the field. That forward's smooth stroke allowed him to do some major damage through most of the season's first half, but it has completely abandoned him recently.
And it shouldn't be surprising that four of Golden State's 10 losses have come during that stretch.
In his team's victories, Speights has averaged 12.2 points per game while shooting 51.4 percent from the field. But when the Warriors lose, the power forward has posted 9.5 points per contest and shot 42.7 percent despite spending just as much time on the court.
This is a deep team with plenty of star power. But if the bench wants to remain so successful during the stretch run, Speights needs to rebound. And I'm not just referring to what he does after a shot is missed.
Houston Rockets: Terrence Jones
5 of 10
Position: PF
Age: 23
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 9.4 points, 5.4 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 0.5 steals, 1.8 blocks, 16.0 PER
Last year, Terrence Jones was a breakout player for the Houston Rockets. During his second season since leaving the Kentucky Wildcats behind, the southpaw became a solid per-minute rebounder who could hold his own on the defensive end, swat some shots in smaller lineups and throw up points in bunches.
But the follow-up campaign hasn't gone nearly as smoothly.
Jones appeared poised to pick up where he left off during the first four games of the season, as he averaged 14 points, 7.5 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1.0 steals and 1.8 blocks while shooting 52.1 percent from the field. But then a nerve issue in his left leg knocked him out of the lineup, and he didn't return until Jan. 28.
Houston changed during that time.
The Rockets added Josh Smith after the Detroit Pistons freed themselves of their Smoove problem. Donatas Motiejunas also played well enough to entrench himself as the starting 4, and he's averaged 13.6 points, 6.8 rebounds and 1.8 assists per game on 54.5 percent shooting during his last 20 appearances.
Now, there's a crowd in the frontcourt, even though Dwight Howard continues to struggle with the health of his knees. But Jones is the proven man at power forward here, and he may have the highest ceiling as well. Even if it seems like he's been around for a long time, he's only 23 years old and possesses enduring two-way upside.
Maybe he won't take over the starting gig again this year. But even if he only continues to play around 20 minutes per game, he can be a huge difference-maker for the Rockets.
Memphis Grizzlies: Jeff Green
6 of 10
Position: SF
Age: 28
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 12.3 points, 3.8 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 0.5 steals, 0.4 blocks, 13.9 PER (with Memphis Grizzlies)
It's a nice luxury to add a player with experience as a primary scorer to the roster midway through the season. The Memphis Grizzlies did just that when they traded for Jeff Green in January. It's especially nice since Green won't have to fill that role as a primary scorer. Instead, he will complement the established pieces that have already made the Grizzlies into one of the NBA's most dangerous teams.
Better still, scoring isn't the strongest part of Green's game.
With the Boston Celtics, the athletic forward was a bit overrated. Sure, he was a two-way player who could put up gaudy point totals, but he wasn't particularly efficient and didn't belong as a No. 1 option. Now, he's back in a role like the one he originally thrived in, serving as a tertiary scorer behind Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett.
So far, the Grizzlies have actually been slightly worse on both ends of the court when Green plays. But as he's given time to adjust, that should change. After all, he's a better shooter than his current numbers indicate—he's not going to hit only 29.6 percent of his triples forever—and he's still learning the Memphis defensive schemes.
This is all about the upside.
"You get comfortable with repetition and time," Green told the Associated Press in late January, via USA Today. "It's been great having Marc [Gasol] and Zach [Randolph] looking for me on cuts. The lane has been there for me, I've just got to be aggressive."
Green's still getting comfortable, since he only has 17 games under his belt while wearing Memphis midnight blue. Give him time, and look out if he starts clicking.
Oklahoma City Thunder: Kevin Durant
7 of 10
Position: SF
Age: 26
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 25.4 points, 6.6 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.9 blocks, 27.7 PER
We all know what Kevin Durant can do when he's on the basketball court.
Fresh off the first regular-season MVP of his career, the 26-year-old Oklahoma City Thunder standout has validated his award whenever he's been healthy enough to play. Though his impact has been limited by injuries, he's still posting those per-game numbers you see above while shooting 51 percent from the field, 40.3 percent from beyond the arc and 85.4 percent at the stripe. Were he playing more, he'd be in the midst of yet another historically impressive campaign.
But he's not.
Instead, he's still dealing with lingering foot soreness from the Jones fracture he suffered in October 2014. Following a minor procedure to alleviate some of the pain, he's out for another week. And at the end of those seven days, there's no guarantee he'll immediately return. Per Royce Young of ESPN.com, he'll simply be re-evaluated.
Jones fractures are notoriously difficult to recover from, and though Durant plays small forward, he's basically the size of a 7-footer. It wouldn't be at all surprising for him to continue struggling with this injury throughout the rest of the season, which would basically knock OKC from the ranks of title contenders.
As Sports Illustrated's Ben Golliver notes, "With Durant, Oklahoma City has a shot to beat anyone in the league; without him, it has an excellent chance to be eliminated by any of the West's playoff teams in the first round."
Russell Westbrook can carry this team into the playoffs. There's little doubt about that, especially with Anthony Davis hurt for the New Orleans Pelicans and the Phoenix Suns taking a step back at the trade deadline.
But without Durant on the floor—or even on the floor and limited—this isn't a title-contending squad. According to my FATS projections (based on historical comparisons and explained in full here), OKC plays like a 40-win team without Durant and a 53-win unit with him.
That just about says it all. When was the last time a sub-.500 team held up the Larry O'Brien Trophy?
Portland Trail Blazers: Arron Afflalo
8 of 10
Position: SG/SF
Age: 29
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 8.0 points, 4.0 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.0 steals, 9.9 PER (with Portland Trail Blazers)
On one hand, Arron Afflalo could be disenchanted coming off the Portland Trail Blazers pine now that he's been traded away from his starting gig with the Denver Nuggets. And if that happens, his performance could suffer. But what if he thinks about this situation as a better version of what happened last year with the Orlando Magic?
That's certainly the early indication, as he wrote for The Players' Tribune after the trade:
"I know I'm not going there as a starter, although I am a proven starter in the NBA, but if it's the depth that I can bring to take this team to the next level then dub me an 'overqualified backup' — as some have already started doing. I'm ready for any role if it means bringing the Larry O'Brien trophy to your city.
"
Sure, he won't play as many minutes as he did while with the Nuggets or Orlando. But he's going to have a chance to lead the charge as a No. 1 scoring option once more, and that worked out rather well in Orlando, where he was an All-Star snub thanks to his torrid shooting in the first half of 2013-14.
Afflalo isn't going to dislodge anyone from the Rip City starting five, which is without question one of the very best in the NBA. But he's also rather easily the top player coming off the pine, which means he has a chance to function as a lead option while playing with guys like Steve Blake, Chris Kaman, Dorell Wright and Alonzo Gee.
And Portland pretty desperately needs that help.
Though the bench has improved this year, it's still a rather weak unit. Portland coach Terry Stotts probably has some minor heart palpitations when he's forced to turn to an entirely second-string lineup, as it's the starting five that has carried Rip City to so much success.
But if Afflalo can look like a surging Sixth Man of the Year candidate during the stretch run and give the Blazers bench more legitimacy, this team will not only see its ceiling lifted. It will also be able to keep the key starters fresh and healthy for the inevitable playoff run through the Western Conference gauntlet.
San Antonio Spurs: Aron Baynes
9 of 10
Position: C
Age: 28
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 6.5 points, 4.6 rebounds, 0.5 assists, 0.2 steals, 0.3 blocks, 15.0 PER
With Tiago Splitter struggling to make much of an impact, the San Antonio Spurs have handed the reins at center over to Aron Baynes. The 28-year-old big man from New Zealand has started five of his team's last six games, and he's only trending in the upward direction.
During San Antonio's past three outings, he's averaged 12.7 points and 6.0 rebounds while shooting a scorching 62.1 percent from the field. His touch around the basket is spectacular, particularly on his quick hooks, and his defense has improved. Somewhat surprisingly, the Spurs are actually allowing 2.7 fewer points per 100 possessions when he's on the floor.
Splitter is still the superior defender, but Baynes' offensive abilities have helped the San Antonio scoring units thrive.
Per NBA.com, Baynes is scoring 1.11 points per possession when serving as a roll man and 1.31 when cutting. Though we don't have access to numbers before this season, both of those feel like huge improvements, as Baynes' ability to work his way into space and time his dives to the rim both look substantially improved.
If this is going to continue, the Spurs are even deadlier than we thought. The Baynes-Tim Duncan combination has been quite effective thus far, and bringing Splitter's defense off the bench only helps shore up the point-preventing abilities of the second unit.
And even if the Brazilian big man is merely using this diminished run as a way to get and stay healthy for the stretch run, Baynes will have benefited from his increased responsibilities.
Toronto Raptors: Terrence Ross
10 of 10
Position: SG/SF
Age: 24
2014-15 Per-Game Stats: 10.1 points, 3.1 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 0.6 steals, 0.3 blocks, 11.0 PER
Terrence Ross hasn't exactly been a consistent contributor for the Toronto Raptors.
He's shot only 40.7 percent from the field and 36.3 percent from beyond the arc, and his game is far from well-rounded. Although he's a scoring threat, the third-year man out of Washington makes virtually no impact on the glass and has nearly as many turnovers as he does assists. The Raptors are also far worse defensively when he's on the court.
While Ross has fallen out of the starting lineup, Raptors coach Dwane Casey—who at times has appeared to be the young swingman's biggest supporter—still plays him, and his minutes often come at the expense of underrated players like James Johnson. Why?
One word: upside.
We're now over a year removed from Ross' 51-point explosion against the Los Angeles Clippers, but Ross has had a few shining moments between then and now. He's scored at least 20 points four times this season, and the Raptors are 10-3 when he hits three or more triples in a game.
This team will ultimately go as far as Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan take it. The Raptors also know what they're going to get out of the efficient Jonas Valanciunas and the spark plug known as Lou Williams. But Ross is a breakout away from drastically elevating the ceiling of this squad.
"According to league sources, Ross is going nowhere. 'Absolutely not,' one rival executive told Sporting News," reported Sean Deveney of before the trade deadline on Feb. 19. "'They still have a lot of belief in him and there is not much you could do to get him from them.'"
Ross still has the athleticism that made him so intriguing after his career with the Huskies ended. He can become a two-way force, so long as he regains confidence in his shooting stroke and develops more consistency on the defensive end.
There are no guarantees here. But are there ever with X-factors?
Note: All stats, unless otherwise indicated, come from Basketball-Reference.com and are current heading into Feb. 23's games.
