Will 2015 Trade Deadline Haul Push Oklahoma City Thunder into Playoffs?
The Oklahoma City Thunder needed to make a splash at the 2015 NBA trade deadline. They accomplished at least that much amid a flurry of buzzer-beating activity that brought Enes Kanter in and sent Reggie Jackson out.
The dust is still settling on the deadline frenzy, but one thing is already clear: Barring injury, the Thunder have effectively secured their postseason spot.
As part of a three-team swap, Oklahoma City acquired Kanter and swingman Kyle Singler while sending Jackson to the Detroit Pistons and Kendrick Perkins to the Utah Jazz, per Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski. NBA.com's David Aldridge unearthed the rest of OKC's haul:
Immediately, the Thunder went from being a team with depth issues to one overflowing with talent, as CBS Sports Radio's Doug Gottlieb observed:
Those four aren't game-changers on their own, but collectively they could help the Thunder field an embarrassment of riches around arguably the league's top two-man tandem.
OKC was gearing up for a playoff run before the deal. Behind superstars Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, the Thunder entered the All-Star break on a three-game winning streak and just a half-game back of the Western Conference's No. 8 seed.
They enter Thursday's matchup with the Dallas Mavericks holding a 28-25 record that is not at all indicative of this team's talent base.
The Thunder have managed to keep their heads above water despite Durant having lost 27 games to a Jones fracture in his right foot and a right ankle sprain. When the MVP has suited up, the Thunder are 17-9—a .654 winning percentage that would put them percentage points behind the fifth-seeded Mavs.
The perennial title contenders have very much looked the part when they've had a full complement of players available. During Durant's 875 minutes, the Thunder have a better net efficiency rating (plus 6.8 points per 100 possessions) than every other team besides the two conference leaders.
"We'd still be up there if we didn't have injuries," Durant told Darnell Mayberry and Anthony Slater of The Oklahoman. "If I wasn't out, if Russ wasn't out, we'd be up there. So don't act like we a bad team or we got worse. Nah, we had injuries."
Those injuries have healed now, and the Thunder expanded their rotation Thursday in both quality and quantity.
OKC waited long enough for guys like Perry Jones III and Jeremy Lamb to develop into key contributors. That's still a possibility at some point, but thanks to their moves at the trade deadline, the Thunder now have reliable options on their reserve unit.
Dion Waiters is the only second teamer with a double-digit scoring average, but he's posted a woeful .383/.268/.667 shooting slash in 18 games with the Thunder. The typically steady Nick Collison has a 41.2 field-goal percentage, nearly nine percentage points below his previous career worst.
As a group, OKC's bench ranked 24th with a .418 field-goal percentage and was tied for 24th with a 30.8 percent conversion rate beyond the arc, via HoopsStats.com. There was no safety net behind the starters, but it should be there now.
Kanter is the major get from Thursday's trade. At 22 years old, he still has incredible potential for growth. But his basement is already high enough for him to step into a significant role right now.
On the season, he's averaging 13.8 points on 49.1 percent shooting and 7.8 rebounds in 27.1 minutes per night. When he's been given a longer leash, he's made the most of it. In the 20 games he's seen at least 30 minutes of floor time, he's put up 17.5 points on 51.5 percent shooting and 10.1 rebounds.
Kanter is a supremely skilled at the offensive end. The 22-year-old is polished beyond his age in the post and growing increasingly comfortable playing away from the basket. During his rookie year in 2011-12, 84.3 percent of his field-goal attempts came within 10 feet of the rim. This season, that number is down to a career-low 62.7.
Floor spacing is critical to getting burn in OKC. The Thunder live off dribble penetration. The trio of Westbrook, Durant and Waiters averages 18.4 drives per game. Westbrook alone puts up 7.7 shots in the restricted area per game, tied for the fifth most in the league.
This offense can't survive with a congested paint. With Kanter and Serge Ibaka around, the Thunder should be able to keep a rangy big on the floor at all times. Add Steven Adams and rising rookie Mitch McGary to the mix, and this frontcourt rotation has some intriguing offense-defense combinations.
Coach Scott Brooks can also change the offensive approach of his reserves. Isolation attacks will still a play a part as long as Waiters is around, but OKC can also lean on Kanter's interior game, D.J. Augustin's ability to create shots for himself and his teammates and Kyle Singler's perimeter shooting.
Kanter ranks in the 60th percentile with a scoring rate of 0.89 points per possession on post-up plays. Augustin has averaged 20.3 points and 8.2 assists over his last 10 games. Singler is a career 37.9 percent shooter from distance and is converting a personal-best 40.6 percent this season. Steve Novak may never crack the rotation, but if he does, he's a 43.4 percent three-point shooter for his career.
This package of players could collectively have a major impact on the Thunder's postseason success. If nothing else, it's an impressive return for a player who clearly had no intentions of sticking around.
"OKC had to move Jackson because a) his agent had demanded it, b) the two sides were far apart in terms of what they'd be willing to accept in a new contract," wrote CBSSports.com's James Herbert. "To get this much for a guy who had one foot out the door is impressive."
Jackson forced the Thunder's hand, and they responded better than anyone could have imagined.
At worst, they fortified their ranks for what could be another lengthy playoff run. At best, they may have grabbed a key piece for their future.
Kanter, like Jackson, is slated to hit restricted free agency at season's end. The Thunder are already planning to keep the former No. 3 pick around, per Wojnarowski:
But Oklahoma City has more immediate plans for Kanter and the other players it acquired. Collectively, they might help the Thunder navigate through the minefield that is the Western Conference playoff bracket.
OKC has the pieces to go small, running two-point guard lineups with Augustin and Westbrook or three-guard looks with those two and Waiters. The Thunder have four reliable bigs to throw at taller teams in Kanter, Ibaka, Steven Adams and rookie Mitch McGary. They can build a wall of stoppers or unleash a batch of explosive scorers.
The question isn't whether this deal moves OKC into the playoff picture; that was going to happen anyway. The Thunder are aiming much higher up the conference ladder, and this trade could be the fuel that takes them there.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
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