Arron Afflalo Trade Shows Portland Trail Blazers Believe They're True Contender
Hours before Thursday's NBA trade deadline, the Portland Trail Blazers went all-in on their championship chances.
In desperate need of depth and insurance (for a hobbled Nicolas Batum now and possibly for free-agent-to-be Wesley Matthews later), the Blazers seem to have found both in a single transaction.
As Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski first reported, Portland pulled two-way swingman Arron Afflalo from the Denver Nuggets in a five-player deal.
Afflalo and small forward Alonzo Gee are headed to Portland, while Denver receives a future first-round pick, shooting guard Will Barton and power forwards Thomas Robinson and Victor Claver. The 2016 first-round selection carries lottery protection that year and the following, per Wojnarowski, and will convert to two future second-rounders if it hasn't been conveyed by then.
It isn't an exorbitant price for Portland. Robinson was the most utilized player of the three for the Blazers, and he only averaged 12.2 minutes in 32 games this season. Losing a future first always stings, but Portland, which is tied for fourth in winning percentage and one of only three teams with top-10 efficiency ranks on both sides of the ball, has reasons to be focused on the present.
However, this isn't a risk-free investment. Afflalo has a $7.75 million player option for next season, which could change the perception of this deal if it turns into only a partial-year rental.
But even if this exchange is viewed differently down the line, it looks a major coup for today.
"In the short term this is a score for Portland because Afflalo can start at the three for Batum, or come off the bench and play the two or the three—Terry Stotts has options," wrote NBC Sports' Kurt Helin. "Portland’s bench has been an issue all season, and it just got better."
| Minutes | 15.9 | 27th |
| Points | 25.8 | 28th |
| Assists | 6.8 | 16th |
| Rebounds | 15.2 | 19th |
| Steals | 2.1 | 27th |
Chris Kaman leads Portland's reserves in scoring at 8.9 points per game, but there's a low ceiling on how much the 32-year-old can give. Not to mention, the Blazers have been 9.2 points per 100 possessions better without him this season. Steve Blake has had his moments, but the 12-year veteran is shooting only 36.5 percent from the field and 32.9 percent from distance.
Behind those two, it's been a revolving door of question marks. Afflalo's arrival breaks that cycle.
"Arron is a proven winner with playoff experience who will be easily integrated into our culture," Blazers general manager Neil Olshey said, per USA Today's Sam Amick. "He possesses a skill set that complements our style of play on both ends of the floor and will make an immediate impact as we continue our playoff push."
Afflalo is a proven scorer, a potent three-point shooter and a strong, versatile defender. He hasn't had the same success he did with the Orlando Magic last season, but overall, he's been a pretty steady source of complementary scoring and floor spacing over the last few years.
There have been some peaks and valleys, but the production has been fairly consistent. Given the supportive role the Blazers will likely ask Afflalo to play, he could see his efficiency soar.
He was the guy in Orlando two seasons ago and averaged the third-most shots in Denver this year. He won't face the same demands in Portland, where 21-plus-points-per-game scorers LaMarcus Aldridge and Damian Lillard already reside.
As good as Afflalo is, he'll be just another piece for the Blazers. The more weapons they can throw at a defense, the harder they'll be to contain.
Portland can shred teams from distance with its collection of shooters, bully them inside with Aldridge and Robin Lopez or beat them off the dribble with Lillard. Afflalo adds to that arsenal with a deadly in-between game that gives Portland a weapon it didn't have, per ESPN Stats & Info:
There could be some adjustments to the role Afflalo will play in Portland. He's been a full-time starter since 2009-10, but that's going to change.
Portland's starting lineup of Lillard, Matthews, Batum, Aldridge and Lopez has posted a net efficiency rating of plus-9.6 points per 100 possessions during its 520 minutes together this season. Only the 42-9 Golden State Warriors have a higher net rating.
Olshey said recently that if his team made a deadline move, it wouldn't change which five players open the game for Portland.
"That is our starting lineup. It's one of the best starting lineups in the league," Olshey said, per Mike Richman of The Oregonian. "... We're committed to not only having them this year but in the future. We're not touching that."
As they shouldn't.
But this deal allows Stotts to tweak his approach. He may not need Matthews to keep logging 34 minutes per game now that there's a reliable replacement on the second team. The Blazers can lighten the load on Batum, who's battled a torn ligament in his right wrist for months and posted career-low shooting percentages from the field (37.5) and three (27.2).
Afflalo should play a prominent role in Portland's rotation. He can play behind and with either of the Blazers wings. Embracing a sixth-man spot just months before potentially testing the free-agent waters is probably less than ideal, but making this work could help him and this team.
"As long as Afflalo's willing to sacrifice some playing time and touches in Portland, he can be one of the best sixth men in the league, contributing to a winning time and increasing his value in free agency this coming summer," wrote CBS Sports' James Herbert.
What remains to be seen is how much this actually lifts Portland's ceiling.
The Blazers addressed their biggest need and did it without sacrificing any key components. Afflalo will give them a boost, and this team was already sitting close to the top. It's easy to see why Portland made this move.
"The window to win in the NBA is small," wrote John Canzano of The Oregonian. "When it opens, you climb through... rapidly... with all your limbs... and you go for it."
The Blazers are going for it and, as Sporting News' Sean Deveney noted, perhaps sending a valuable message to Aldridge before he reaches free agency as well:
Portland is better than it was before the trade. And this was already one of the NBA's elite teams.
The championship field looks as crowded as it's been in a long time. Portland's fate still rests in the hands of Aldridge and Lillard, but Afflalo could help nudge this team closer to the crown.
The Blazers are buying stock in their banner-raising potential. Considering the price paid and possible prize at stake, it seems like a savvy investment.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
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