Lakers Trade Rumors: Analyzing Buzz on Goran Dragic, Ty Lawson and More
With hours to go before the trade deadline, the Los Angeles Lakers have several important decisions to make. They want to build a roster that can contend next year, which is no small task for a 13-40 team, but can't afford to deal any of their key assets to do so.
Fortunately, the Lakers don't have any players on the roster who should be considered untouchable. Kobe Bryant and Julius Randle aren't going anywhere because they are injured, but everyone else should be in play.
The down side is no one on the roster is going to bring that much in return, so it's going to take some unique maneuvering by general manager Mitch Kupchak to satisfy the franchise's many needs. He's pulled rabbits out of thin air before—see: Pau Gasol in 2008—and will have to do it again.
There's no shortage of rumors and speculation around the Lakers right now, so it gives us plenty to chew on until the 3 p.m. deadline.
The Dragic Package
The saga involving Goran Dragic and the trade deadline keeps getting weirder. It started with Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo Sports reporting that Dragic's camp had given a list of teams where he would prefer to play:
Going back a few days before Wojnarowski's report, ESPN's Marc Stein wrote the Lakers have long been fascinated by Dragic:
"The Lakers, meanwhile, also have coveted Dragic for some time and likewise are said to be intent on testing the Suns' resolve when it comes to their Slovenian point guard. Sources say L.A. plans to chase Dragic this summer anyway with an aggressive four-year offer that would be valued as high as an estimated $80 million if it approaches max-contract territory.
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It would seem that the Lakers and New York Knicks are the two biggest dominoes in this scenario, though neither team would seem to have anything that would satisfy what the Suns are looking for. After all, they are in the playoff mix and have no obligation to simply give away the 28-year-old.
On Wednesday, Wojnarowski reported the Suns are looking for "packages that include a young player with significant potential and a first-round draft pick or two first-round picks."
The Lakers can satisfy part of that request, as they could have multiple first-round picks in 2015. There's also the ironic twist that their first pick would automatically transfer to Phoenix if it's not in the top five stemming from the Steve Nash sign-and-trade in 2012.
The bad news for Los Angeles is it can't give the Suns anything resembling a young player with significant potential. There's also no reason to since Dragic has taken all of the leverage away from Phoenix.
Teams looking at Dragic know he's not going to re-sign with the Suns. There's also the question of if this particular player is worth all the fuss. He's certainly proved to be a good player, especially when he can control the ball, but is he someone you want to mortgage a lot of the future for?
Neil Paine of Five Thirty Eight broke down a lot of the numbers on Dragic and why his stats this season may not be all about not touching the ball enough:
"Perhaps most telling, Dragic is only creating 10.3 points per 36 minutes with his passing, down from 15.1 last season. And according to Synergy numbers, isolations and pick-and-roll plays went from composing 49.4 percent of Dragic’s offensive game a year ago to 34.2 percent this season. Although skill curve theory might predict an uptick in efficiency with such a change, the reality is that Dragic’s effectiveness has cratered on the plays that were once his bread-and-butter. In 2013-14, he ranked in Synergy’s 91st percentile on pick-and-rolls and isolations; this season he ranks in the 43rd percentile.
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Combine everything that's come out about Dragic, his impending free agency this summer and the Lakers' need to keep losing so they can keep their first pick this year, and making a trade for the guard right now makes no sense.
Unless the Lakers are obsessed with "winning" the trade deadline, which is to say generating some positive headlines for the first time all year, there's no need to trade for a player you can sign in the offseason without having to give up anything.
The Alternative Option
In the event the Lakers don't go after Dragic at the deadline, they may have another ace up their sleeve that would make more sense for the franchise right now.
According to ESPN's Chris Broussard, one player on the Lakers' radar is Ty Lawson:
If there is one team that seems to hold the fate of this trade deadline in its hands, it's the Nuggets. A lot of notable moves happened early in the season, so finding teams ready to make big moves now doesn't seem likely.
However, per Alex Kennedy of Basketball Insiders, executives from other teams are monitoring the situation in Denver because of all the potential moves it can make:
It's possible Lawson will cost less than Dragic in a trade, despite being signed through the 2016-17 season, because the Nuggets want to start fresh. They also aren't fighting for a playoff spot like the Suns are, so patience is a virtue that Denver can afford to have.
Yet according to Chris Dempsey of the Denver Post, there's also the question of how motivated the Nuggets are to move Lawson before 3 p.m. ET:
Even though common sense makes it easy to understand why the Lakers would want Lawson, especially if they are also interested in Dragic, they seem like a team to mention more because they checked in rather than because they're a serious player.
The 27-year-old Lawson, who is averaging 16.9 points and 10.1 assists per game, is the kind of player a team like Denver should be building around. Dangling him as a possible trade candidate is smart business to see if some team blows you away with an offer, but all signs point to him staying put.
Used Parts for Sale!
Speaking of common sense, in order to bring something in, you have to move something out. If the Lakers are going to make a deal at the deadline, they have to part with someone on their roster.
That's a problem for Kupchak, as Mark Medina of the Los Angeles Daily News reported none of the role players on the Lakers' roster was close to being moved:
In his written report, Medina noted that the expectation is Los Angeles won't be making any deals before the deadline:
"But the Lakers are “unlikely” to make a deal prior to Thursday’s trade deadline, according to an NBA source familiar with the front office’s thinking. The Lakers have and will still make calls regarding possible trades. Yet, the Lakers are also aware that any moves could compromise a few variables they deem important.
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It's hard being in a market like Los Angeles, where fans aren't going to pay any attention unless you are relevant because there are so many things to do. Coming out of a trade deadline where there are valuable pieces available who have listed the Lakers as a potential destination only compounds the problem.
The good news is Kupchak and Co. appear to be learning from past mistakes. A lot of that has to do with owning one of the league's worst records, so the playoffs are out of the question. But it's also a testament to a franchise finally not overreacting to everything that's happened.
No one wants Jeremy Lin, Nick Young or Wayne Ellington because they aren't good players. Young has the fun Swaggy P persona, but that doesn't change the fact he's shooting 36.5 percent from the field. Lin is a point guard with an assist-to-turnover ratio below 1.93, per Basketball-Reference.
All the Lakers should be doing is riding out this wave that's swallowed the franchise whole this season, then go into free agency with financial flexibility and a clear plan to get better in 2015-16.
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