Predicting the Top 20 Defenses of the 2015 College Football Season
Does defense really win championships?
Reigning national champion Ohio State finished 19th in total defense last season, while semifinalist Alabama was 12th overall. The other playoff teams, Florida State and Oregon, finished 63rd and 89th, respectively.
Unlike a strong offense, which seems to be easier to maintain, keeping together a consistent defensive unit from one year to the next is much tougher. Only seven schools that finished the 2014 season ranked in the top 20 in total defense were also at that level in 2013, but six of those finished in the top 20 in 2012 as well.
Being able to sustain a strong defense, year in and year out, can go a long way toward ensuring long-term success. But can the programs that have managed to do so the last few years continue with this trend, or are they in line for a setback next season? And who will take their place among the top 20 defenses in college football?
Click through for our predictions on the 20 best defenses in 2015.
NOTE: Number of starters returning is based on whether teams list 11 or 12 starting positions, because of lineup variation, on Ourlads.com.
Alabama
1 of 20
2014 record: 12-2
Total defense rank: 12th
Defensive starters returning: 8
Depending on the perspective, Alabama's defensive line could have been considered as disappointing last season when comparing it to previous Crimson Tide units. They were No. 1 overall in both 2011 and 2012 and ranked in the top eight every season back to 2008, per CFBStats.com, so while finishing 12th is great from an overall standpoint, it does represent a regression.
Look for the Tide to rise again this season, though, with their defensive line set up to be one of the program's best ever and expected improvement in the secondary under new assistant Mel Tucker. He has to find two new safeties and get more out of the cornerbacks, but after watching enough tape of Alabama getting beat deep in obvious passing situations, there's nowhere to go but up.
The defensive line avoided any attrition via the NFL draft, with senior Jarran Reed and juniors Jonathan Allen and A'Shawn Robinson all looking to build off solid performances. Linebacker will be a little thin, but Reggie Ragland returns after spurning the NFL.
The improving offenses in the SEC might make it hard for Alabama (or any team in the league) to take the top defensive ranking in FBS, but the Tide and several others in the conference will remain among the best.
Arizona State
2 of 20
2014 record: 10-3
Total defense rank: 83rd
Defensive starters returning: 9
The lowest-ranked 2014 defense on this list is Arizona State, which was one of the youngest units in the country last season but still fared rather well. The Pac-12 was such a dominant offensive league last year that, outside of Stanford, no team ranked better than 60th in total defense.
Expect a huge leap forward from this rising group this fall, however. Coach Todd Graham's love of blitzing and aggressive play figures to only increase now that his starters have a year of experience under their belts, with future stars such as sophomore linebacker D.J. Calhoun and sophomore tackle Tashon Smallwood candidates for top honors in the Pac-12.
Despite the likely improvement through maturity and experience, this is still an ambitious prediction because of the schedule ASU faces in 2015. It opens against Texas A&M and seven conference games against teams that ranked in the top 40 in offense last year.
Arkansas
3 of 20
2014 record: 7-6
Total defense rank: 10th
Defensive starters returning: 6
When Bret Bielema's name started getting floated around for coaching openings in December, including the vacancy at Nebraska, he reaffirmed his commitment to Arkansas by noting that he was "all Hog."
That would have been a fair assessment of the Razorbacks' defense in 2014, which rose to the occasion in the second half of the season and paced a pair of shutouts against ranked SEC opponents and then smothered Texas in the Texas Bowl.
This year's Arkansas defense might have to be known as "young" Hogs, though, as none of the returning starters will be seniors. But those coming back all looked really good as freshmen and sophomores last year, particularly lineman Taiwan Johnson, linebacker Brooks Ellis and cornerback Jared Collins.
Now heading into his third year, Bielema has quickly turned this program into the team he wanted it to be both in terms of personnel and scheme. Continued offensive improvement figures to be the main emphasis this offseason, but look for Arkansas to remain a capable defensive team that will frustrate many opponents with its size and strength.
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Auburn
4 of 20
2014 record: 8-5
Total defense rank: 66th
Defensive starters returning: 7
Despite reports to the contrary, Will Muschamp is not a defensive god. A guru, maybe, but he's not the savior who will cure all of Auburn's ails on defense.
He will, however, get a heck of a lot more out of the Tigers' returners than previous coordinator Ellis Johnson did, and combined with the notable defensive recruits the former Florida coach helped lure to The Plains there won't be as much of a need to cringe and pray when Auburn doesn't have the ball.
The key will be getting Auburn's line to create more pressure on the passer, if not actually get to him before he throws the ball. As a team it had only 21 sacks in 2014, second-worst in the SEC and tied for 94th nationally, and with that putting more pressure on the secondary to make plays the team-wide tackling issues became more glaring.
Defensive end prospect Byron Cowart will help immensely in this area, while Carl Lawson's return from an ACL injury that cost him all of the 2014 season provides additional evidence that Auburn should be much better up front.
"Getting Lawson back will allow Muschamp to build an aggressive front seven," Athlon Sports' Steven Lassan wrote.
Clemson
5 of 20
2014 record: 10-3
Total defense rank: 1st
Defensive starters returning: 4
As Clemson was putting the finishing touches on a blowout win over Oklahoma in the Russell Athletic Bowl, ESPN's cameras and broadcasters spent a lot of time chronicling how animated and active Tigers defensive coordinator Brent Venables was on the sideline.
Imagine what he's going to be like this season, as after building Clemson's defense up from 64th in 2012 to tops in the nation last year, he has to nearly start all over. Ten seniors from the two-deep have moved on, including dominant pass-rusher Vic Beasley and his 25 sacks and 44.5 tackles for loss the past two years.
It's not a complete do-over, though, because rising junior Shaq Lawson had 11.5 tackles for loss last year and the secondary has plenty of depth to work with. And the Tigers landed a top-10 recruiting class, with 5-star defensive tackle Christian Wilkins, per 247Sports, a prospect who could make an immediate impact up front.
Clemson will have a hard time repeating as the top defense in the country, but Venables is too good a coach to let the performance drop off too significantly.
Georgia
6 of 20
2014 record: 10-3
Total defense rank: 17th
Defensive starters returning: 6
The Jeremy Pruitt defensive overhaul reaped strong benefits in 2014, elevating Georgia nearly 30 spots up the total-defense ranks and severely cutting down on the big plays that doomed it the season before. There were still breakdowns, but it's not as frequent as in the past, and the overall tone of the defense was much more positive under Pruitt.
Continued improvement is expected in 2015, despite losing several notable starters. In fact, some predictions have the Bulldogs being better on defense than on offense this year, which is saying something considering that breakout star Nick Chubb is back at running back.
"The Georgia defense is going to start carrying this team, and that could be the missing element that has kept this team from reaching their goals," wrote Michael Collins of DawnOfTheDawg.com.
Georgia's linebackers and secondary will be their strength this season, while up front Georgia needs to reload a bit. That means 247Sports' No. 1 overall recruit Trent Thompson figures to start right away, but several other incoming prospects should play key roles in the Bulldogs' effort to get back to the SEC East title game after slipping up at inopportune times the past two seasons.
Louisville
7 of 20
2014 record: 9-4
Total defense rank: 6th
Defensive starters returning: 4
Using mostly players inherited from the previous staff, Louisville defensive coordinator Todd Grantham made his choice to leave Georgia after the 2013 season seem like a pretty good move. The Cardinals held their first seven opponents under 300 yards last year, and outside of losses to Florida State and Georgia, they never yielded more than 351 yards.
But now comes the real test for Grantham and the players he and coach Bobby Petrino have brought in the past two years, as most of last year's starters are gone. That includes safety Gerod Holliman, who tied the FBS single-season interception record and then jumped to the NFL as a redshirt sophomore.
Senior Sheldon Rankins is the most important piece of the holdovers. He led Louisville in sacks and tackles for loss and now will be paired up with former TCU defensive end star Devonte Fields. Fields, who was the Big 12 Defensive Rookie of the Year in 2012, missed most of 2013 with injuries and then spent last season in junior college after being dismissed from school.
Louisville also has some potential impact transfers becoming eligible in ex-Georgia defensive backs Josh Harvey-Clemons and Shaq Wiggins, both of whom could start.
LSU
8 of 20
2014 record: 8-5
Total defense rank: 9th
Defensive starters returning: 7
The NFL draft has been LSU's worst enemy the last few years, with the Tigers ranking near the top most years in terms of early departures lured away by the pro ranks. This happened again after the 2014 season, with three defensive starters passing up their senior seasons.
But defensive back Jalen Mills decided to stick around, which was a huge win, and combined with rising corner Jamal Adams and incoming star Kevin Toliver, it gives LSU the makings of one of the best secondaries in the country this fall. The Tigers were third against the pass last season.
The Tigers changed coordinators, with John Chavis skipping out for the Texas A&M DC gig and getting replaced by Alabama linebackers coach Kevin Steele. They also brought in former Ole Miss coach Ed Orgeron to coach the defensive line, an area in great need of improvement but where there's plenty of young talent to build off.
Michigan
9 of 20
2014 record: 5-7
Total defense rank: 7th
Defensive starters returning: 9
As bad as Michigan's season was in 2014, it could have been far worse if not for a defense that held up admirably, despite spending far too much time on the field. The Wolverines' offense struggled to sustain drives and move the ball, putting the pressure on the defense to keep them in games.
New coach Jim Harbaugh will feed off that group's efforts to elevate them to another level this season, and with most of the notable players coming back, there's high expectations. Depth was built through injuries and in an effort to keep starters from wearing down, and that will benefit Michigan going forward.
The addition of a presumably healthy Jabrill Peppers, who was limited to just three games because of leg and ankle injuries, will bolster the secondary, while Harbaugh's hiring of former Florida defensive coordinator D.J. Durkin is a reason for Wolverines fans to be excited about what lies ahead.
Missouri
10 of 20
2014 record: 10-3
Total defense rank: 23rd
Defensive starters returning: 7
Missouri has developed a reputation over the past decade for its development of defensive linemen into NFL players, and this past season was no different, with Markus Golden and Shane Ray both expected to get drafted after monster 2014 performances.
This renowned process helped the Tigers land one of the top linemen recruits in the 2015 class and should help prevent any dropoff after two straight years of major attrition up front.
Five-star defensive tackle prospect Terry Beckner Jr., per 247Sports, will team with junior Harold Brantley to shift the focus up front to the interior, which might cut down on Mizzou's sack numbers but keep their solid effort against the run at a high level.
The Tigers bring back all three starting linebackers and most of the secondary, so expect the back end to be ready to handle SEC quarterbacks and capitalize on the lack of experience at that position in the conference.
Notre Dame
11 of 20
2014 record: 8-5
Total defense rank: 73rd
Defensive starters returning: 10
If you're looking for a candidate for most improved defense in 2015, Notre Dame's underachieving unit is a good place to start.
The Fighting Irish return almost their entire starting lineup, one that last season had to adjust to a complete change in defensive philosophies going from Bob Diaco to Brian Van Gorder as coordinator. The results were not impressive, especially during the late-season slide when five of the five six opponents ran for at least 2,005 yards.
But now Notre Dame heads into this season with 19 players from their two-deep depth chart from the Music City Bowl coming back, not to mention a strong crop of freshmen who redshirted, as well as the possible return of defensive back KeiVarae Russell and defensive end Ishaq Williams (both of whom were suspended amid an academic-fraud investigation and didn't play in 2014) return. They'll all be more well-versed in Van Gorder's system and figure to only get better with each game.
"I believe we've got an opportunity to have a special season in 2015, and I wanted to be a part of that success," defensive end Sheldon Day said in a statement after deciding to return to school for his senior year.
Ohio State
12 of 20
2014 record: 14-1
Total defense rank: 19th
Defensive starters returning: 8
Ohio State's rise from being prematurely eliminated from playoff contention in early September to winning the national title in January saw its offense become nearly unstoppable when all was said and done. But the Buckeyes defense showed similar improvement over the course of the 2014 season and had just as much of a role in their postseason victories as anything they did on offense.
And there's nothing to indicate that the upcoming title defense won't be equally driven by the defense, despite all of the attention being paid to how OSU plans to handle its overabundance of quarterback candidates.
"Ohio State showed drastic defensive improvement in its last three outings, but with what's returning in 2015, the best is yet to come," Bleacher Report's David Regimbal wrote.
Tackle Michael Bennett is the only significant loss, while other holes at linebacker and cornerback will quickly be filled by the next men up. And like the Buckeyes showed last year with their offensive depth (at quarterback and elsewhere), the quality that exists and is incoming on defense will keep them among the nationally ranked top units for 2015 and beyond.
Penn State
13 of 20
2014 record: 7-6
Total defense rank: 2nd
Defensive starters returning: 7
James Franklin's hiring at Penn State was met with plenty of excitement last year, as the thought of the innovative coach working with one of the best young quarterbacks in the country led to high expectations. But the biggest move Franklin made was bringing along Vanderbilt defensive coordinator Bob Shoop, who took what the Nittany Lions had and made them into an elite unit.
Even with the loss of three key seniors and the early departure of junior defensive end Deion Barnes, the Lions could be even better in 2015.
Anthony Zettel heads into his senior year coming off a monster junior campaign, where he led the team in sacks (eight), tackles for loss (17) and tied with Adrian Amos for three interceptions. He was a big reason the Lions allowed only 2.95 yards per rush and limited opposing quarterbacks to just a 53 percent completion rate.
PSU went heavy on offense in its recruiting class to try to address a woeful attack from 2014, but thanks to strong reserves already in place, the defense won't be lacking in terms of depth this fall.
Pittsburgh
14 of 20
2014 record: 6-7
Total defense rank: 34th
Defensive starters returning: 8
Pat Narduzzi made a name for himself as one of the best defensive coordinators in the country at Michigan State, where over the previous four seasons he oversaw a unit that finished no worse than eighth nationally in total defense.
He was the Broyles Award winner in 2013 as the nation's top assistant coach, and with cornerback Trae Waynes projected as a first-round pick, according Bleacher Report's Matt Miller, he'll have seen defensive backs go in the first round in two straight drafts.
What he did at one school won't automatically translate to defensive success at another, but Narduzzi is walking into a good situation for his head coaching debut at Pittsburgh. The Panthers return seven of their top eight defensive linemen and most of their secondary, as well as some promising young players at linebacker.
They held their own last season, and now with the chance to work with a defensive mastermind like Narduzzi, the Panthers aren't likely to get torched like they did late in their bowl loss to Houston.
Stanford
15 of 20
2014 record: 8-5
Total defense rank: 3rd
Defensive starters returning: 3
Stanford has been a top-30 defense for five years, and even with a change at coordinator last season (Lance Anderson was promoted from linebackers coach after Derek Mason left to coach Vanderbilt), the Cardinal had their best performance of that run. Yet the true test of how great Stanford's approach on defense is will be how this next season's group fares, since so many of the top contributors will be first-time starters.
Only linebackers Kevin Anderson and Blake Martinez and safety Zach Hoffpauir return in 2015, which would initially make you think this group is set for a significant regression. But Stanford lost five top-tier defenders after the 2013 season and saw its per-game and per-play numbers go up.
Ultimately, it will come down to how the Cardinal handle their revamped defensive line, writes David Lombardi of ESPN.com:
"The defensive line has been the foundational pillar of the Cardinal's dominant 3-4 defense, and this is the first time in several years that the program has had to replace all three starters up front."
TCU
16 of 20
2014 record: 12-1
Total defense rank: 18th
Defensive starters returning: 5
While it was the offensive metamorphosis that TCU underwent in 2014 that got most of the attention—as well as the bulk of the credit for the push for a playoff spot—the Horned Frogs defense was also a huge part of the season's formula for success. That is expected to continue this fall, despite the loss of several key starters and longtime coordinator Dick Bumpas, who retired.
The Frogs have to retool their secondary after losing safeties Chris Hackett and Sam Carter and cornerback Kevin White, but corner Ranthony Texada has promise to be their next lockdown defender and top 2015 recruit Deshawn Raymond (an early enrollee) could start as a freshman. The defensive line made huge strides last season, and brings back three starters, but both linebackers have graduated.
Coach Gary Patterson has said he plans to "tweak" how TCU's defense operates, per Carlos Mendez of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. Odds are those changes will help the Frogs remain among the top units in the country.
Tennessee
17 of 20
2014 record: 7-6
Total defense rank: 37th
Defensive starters returning: 9
Tennessee's youth movement in 2014 was an all-over-the-field approach, with freshmen contributing at nearly every key position and helping get the Volunteers back into bowl season. Now their youthful defense is ready to make the next step and become an elite group, one that will rival many others in the SEC in terms of experience thanks to last year.
The departure of co-leading tackler A.J. Johnson and cornerback Justin Coleman will be felt, but returners such as defensive end Derek Barnett, linebacker Jalen Reeves-Maybin and corner Cameron Sutton will help account for those losses.
So, too, will another strong crop of impact recruits, including several defensive line prospects (highlighted by 5-star tackle Kahlil McKenzie, per 247Sports) who could give the Vols the best front four in the conference.
"This will allow Barnett to continue to dominate up front, as opposing offenses won’t be able to key solely on the star defensive end due to the amount of dynamic talent surrounding him," wrote Ethan Levine of Saturday Down South.
Considering Barnett had 10 sacks and 20.5 tackles for loss as a true freshman, working mostly alone, this Tennessee defense could be scary.
Texas
18 of 20
2014 record: 6-7
Total defense rank: 26th
Defensive starters returning: 5
We saw a vast improvement on defense from Texas in 2014 under new coach Charlie Strong, but that was only the beginning. That Longhorns unit was mostly comprised of players left over from the Mack Brown era, and many of them have now moved on.
Those who are still around have little guarantee of a job this upcoming season, though, not with the bevy of talent that Strong pulled in on the recruiting trail. Fifteen of his 28 signees were on defense, with eight of them earning 4- or 5-star rankings from 247Sports.
Linebacker Malik Jefferson, an early enrollee, has a chance to be the face of the Longhorns program under Strong. He and fellow linebacker recruit Anthony Wheeler figure to step right in for graduating starters and help push forward Strong's tough-as-nails agenda.
Texas was a headache for teams in the Big 12 to deal with last season. This year it will be a migraine.
Virginia
19 of 20
2014 record: 5-7
Total defense rank: 29th
Defensive starters returning: 6
Virginia faced some of the nation's top offenses last season and did pretty darn good against them. Facing the likes of BYU, Florida State, Georgia Tech, North Carolina and UCLA, the Cavaliers allowed an average of 369.8 yards, but those opponents scored 33.2 points per game and won every matchup.
Look for this year's Virginia team to buckle down on the big plays and the occasional mental lapses that led to those unbalanced defensive results, though it will need to do so with an entirely new starting linebacker unit. Henry Coley and Daquan Romero graduated, while Max Valles turned pro as a redshirt sophomore.
The Cavs also have to replace talented defensive end Eli Harold, who declared early, and safety Anthony Harris. It will be a youth movement, but one anchored by a promising defensive back (safety Quin Blanding) who led the team in tackles as a true freshman.
Wake Forest
20 of 20
2014 record: 3-9
Total defense rank: 41st
Defensive starters returning: 7
When in doubt, start on the defensive side.
This is the mindset that led Wake Forest to tabbing Bowling Green's Dave Clawson as its coach last year, going for his defensive background that led his Falcons teams in 2012 and 2013 to finish in the top 10 nationally in yards allowed. The Demon Deacons had an underrated defense last year, but one that didn't get much attention because the team's offense was among the worst in the country.
Expect another strong performance on the defensive side in 2015, with holdovers from the Jim Grobe era such as safety Ryan Janvion, linebacker Marquel Lee and tackle Josh Banks combining with Clawson's recruits from the past two classes to keep that work going.
If Wake Forest can just get a decent offense put together, it could find itself back in a bowl game for the first time since 2011.
Statistical information provided by CFBStats.com.
Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
