Phoenix Suns Should Bite the Bullet, Trade Goran Dragic Before Deadline
Goran Dragic's future with the Phoenix Suns has long been up in the air, with the end result to his upcoming free agency tied to a number of decisive factors, not the least of which are money and sensibility.
More than halfway through this season, Dragic's fate is still largely undetermined. And yet, while nothing is absolutely certain, it's becoming clear what's best for the Suns: ending an experiment that's not working and about to get extraordinarily expensive.
This take is neither new nor especially hot. It's a more definitive spin on an issue that's been danced around since the Suns acquired Isaiah Thomas and re-signed Eric Bledsoe.
"Caveats aside, there is every reason to believe the Suns will trade Bledsoe, or one of their other flashy point guards, in the next few months," Bleacher Report's Howard Beck wrote in December. "It's the logical move, competitively and financially."
Most recently, Gery Woelfel of the Racine Journal Times revealed the Suns even had an asking price in mind for one of their point men:
Though this is really the first time a specific one of Phoenix's floor generals has (allegedly) been made available, the recent chatter, and any that follows, is not surprising.
The Suns' three-headed point guard monster is equal parts exciting and expendable. The offense is pumping in 116.7 points per 100 possessions, and Phoenix is posting a net rating of plus-six when all three share the floor. Those marks would rank first and third, respectively, in the league.
But the defensive issues three-guard lineups create are exhausting. The Suns are often undersized and incapable of defending and crashing the glass. They rank 24th in rebounding percentage and 27th in rim protection. Their defense also equates to the league's worst when Dragic, Bledsoe and Thomas share the floor.
Which is to say, this model has been better in theory than practice. The Suns have needs down low. They rank 22nd in shot attempts within the paint, and they have no true post-up scorer.
Meanwhile, they're overloaded with players who are slotted at the league's deepest position. Even general manager Ryan McDonough, who touted this point guard carousel over the summer, is starting to realize the Suns are packed with floor generals—jam-packed. He said as much during an interview on Arizona Sports 98.7 FM, per ArizonaSports.com's Adam Green:
"I think our roster balance is a little off, and that's my fault. We are a little too backcourt-heavy, especially in terms of guys who, you know, I think you'd define primarily as scorers in the backcourt. So I think at some point we'll need to balance that out, try to get a little more size, a little more frontcourt scoring and rebounding.
"
Now's as good a time as any to start building that balance, and Dragic is the perfect trade bait to get the process underway.
Bledsoe and Thomas are already locked up long term. Dragic is expected to opt out of his contract this summer, at which point he will enter unrestricted free agency and field an onslaught of lucrative offers.
Keeping him will cost the Suns a ton of money. Approaching 29 and playing the NBA's deepest position, Dragic may not nab a max deal, but he's still the only player eclipsing 16 points, three rebounds, four assists and one steal on 50 percent shooting per game. That's production more than one team will reward.
Dragic will almost assuredly command upward of $12 million annually on the open market. If the Suns invest $12 million in him next season, they'll have more than $32.4 million invested in their three primary point guards.
Call that a generous guess, because the cost will probably exceed $32.4 million. There is already one team plotting to offer a max-level contract, according to ESPN.com's Marc Stein: the Los Angeles Lakers. Rivaling that proposal means the Suns' commitment to their three guards would top $40 million.
Per year.
That's a steep price for any backcourt, let alone one that may not even make the postseason. The Suns have just a half-game hold on the Western Conference's final playoff seed, a spot most see as the Oklahoma City Thunder's to lose.
Sinking tens of millions of dollars more into a lottery-bound core isn't prudent business. Funneling that cash into an eighth-place team doesn't make any sense, either.
All the Suns succeed in doing by retaining Dragic is maybe clinching a playoff berth that promises them a first-round exit at the hands of the mighty Golden State Warriors. That's their ceiling, and it's a low one.
Complicated still, there's no guarantee that, after all this, Dragic sticks around.
Sean Deveney of the Sporting News previously said Dragic planned on having an "open" free agency this summer. While his numbers have dipped considerably during this backcourt venture, it's unlikely that stance has changed. If anything, with the Suns' failing to create adequate separation in the playoff race, it's firmer than ever.
Parting ways with Dragic now is a way for the Suns to capitalize on his departure. Finding tangible talent to immediately replace his production won't be possible, but there are teams that both need point guards and have first-round picks to sling.
The Lakers own the Houston Rockets' first-rounder in this year's draft and can pair that with Jordan Hill's expiring contract. They could even ship out Jeremy Lin and Ed Davis with that pick.
Then there are the Rockets themselves. Stein identifies them as another suitor for Dragic, and they have the New Orleans Pelicans' 2015 first-round pick to dangle. Though it's protected for selections one to three and 20 to 30, it's currently projected to fall in that sweet spot.
If the Suns are able to turn Dragic into a first-round selection, they could have up to three for this year's draft. They have their own first-rounder—which will likely land in the lottery—and will receive the Lakers' if it lands outside the top five.
Those picks are serious, cost-effective building blocks the Suns can use to continue their current climb up the Western Conference ladder. They can develop them or pitch them as part of some blockbuster trade that lands another game-changer.
Either way, what's important is the Suns do something different than they are now. They are not a bad team. They're a good team that just isn't good enough.
"General manager Ryan McDonough's goal is to win an NBA championship and the landscape to do this right now in the West is an incredibly difficult task," writes Bryan Gibberman for Bright Side Of The Sun. "Trying to be in the next cycle two to three years down the road could possibly be the most logical path."
Three years from now, Dragic will be pushing 32, on the verge of leaving his prime in the rearview. His window to win is now; the Suns' window won't be open until later. Thomas (26) and Bledsoe (25) are young enough to wait the process out; Dragic needs to become collateral damage for that process to even begin, for the Suns to amass more young talent and, most importantly, picks.
Pulling the plug on this experiment, with the playoffs in sight, is no doubt difficult. But it's the right thing to do.
Biting the bullet now, at a time when they're not dangerous enough, gives the Suns a better chance of being behind the trigger later.
*Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference and NBA.com and are accurate leading into the All-Star break. Salary information via HoopsHype. Draft pick information collected from RealGM.
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