What Should the Vikings Expect from Teddy Bridgewater in Year 2?
The sophomore-slump phenomenon has rarely manifested itself in recent young quarterbacks in the NFL, which is good news for Teddy Bridgewater and the Minnesota Vikings.
In fact, since 2004, the vast majority of quarterbacks with 12 or more starts as rookies have improved in their second seasons.
Bridgewater, who made 12 starts in 2014 after the Vikings made him the No. 32 overall pick, threw for 2,919 yards, 14 touchdowns and 12 interceptions as a first-year starter. His 85.7 passer rating ranked seventh among rookie quarterbacks with at least 200 attempts in NFL history, while his 64.4 completion percentage ranked third.
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"I thought that this was going to be a year where I was just going to be able to come in and compete, but things happen," Bridgewater told ESPN's Ben Goessling in December. "We were faced with adversity this year and whenever my number was called I had to always be ready."
Bridgewater no longer has to worry about his number being called. He's the present and future of the Vikings franchise. After participating in and eventually losing a three-way competition for the No. 1 job last summer, Bridgewater will enter 2015 as the club's unquestioned starter.
The Vikings should expect improvement.
Since '04, four rookie quarterbacks have started 12 or more games and posted a higher passer rating than Bridgewater's 85.7: Robert Griffin III (102.4), Russell Wilson (100.0), Ben Roethlisberger (98.1) and Matt Ryan (87.7).
| Cmp. % | 64.1 | 63.1 |
| TD/INT | 26/10 | 26/9 |
| Yards/Att | 7.9 | 8.2 |
| Passer Rating | 100.0 | 101.2 |
| Cmp % | 66.4 | 62.7 |
| TD/INT | 17/11 | 17/9 |
| Yards/Att | 8.9 | 8.9 |
| Passer Rating | 98.1 | 98.6 |
Griffin III tore his ACL at the end of his rookie season and certainly wasn't the same coming back the next year. Bridgewater will not be dealing with any sort of catastrophic injury and rehab this offseason. Griffin III's second-year decline can be thrown out.
However, Wilson's healthy second season saw him improve in yards, interceptions, passer rating and yards per attempt. The Seattle Seahawks improved by two wins and eventually won the Super Bowl.
Roethlisberger missed four games in his second season, but he still managed to improve in touchdown percentage, interception percentage, passer rating and yards per attempt. The Pittsburgh Steelers also went on to win the Super Bowl.
Ryan saw dips from Year 1 to 2 in completion percentage and passer rating, but he also threw more touchdowns despite missing two games. In his third season, Ryan became a Pro Bowler.
Other recent rookies also saw jumps in play as sophomores.
Cam Newton increased his yards per attempt and passer rating while cutting down on interceptions during his second season.
Andy Dalton improved across the board, upping his completion percentage, passing yards, touchdowns, yards per attempt and passer rating. Joe Flacco enjoyed a similar jump, with significant improvements in completion percentage, passing yards, touchdowns, interception percentage, yards per attempt and passer rating.
| Cmp % | 58.1 | 62.3 |
| TD/INT | 20/13 | 27/16 |
| Yards/Attempt | 6.6 | 6.9 |
| Passer Rating | 80.4 | 87.4 |
| Cmp % | 60.0 | 63.1 |
| TD/INT | 14/12 | 21/12 |
| Yards/Attempt | 6.9 | 7.2 |
| Passer Rating | 80.3 | 88.9 |
Four other quarterbacks are also encouraging for Bridgewater.
Ryan Tannehill made a sizable improvement in Year 2, throwing for double his rookie touchdowns while also increasing his completion percentage and passer rating. He did so despite taking a league-high 58 sacks as a second-year starter.
While it may be unfair to compare Bridgewater to Andrew Luck, it's worth noting that Luck increased his completion percentage by over six points, cut his interceptions in half and bumped his passer rating up to 87.0 in his second season.
Nick Foles did not make 12 or more starts as a rookie (he made just six), but his second season saw him throw 27 touchdowns against just two interceptions while posting a passer rating of 119.2.
Finally, there's Carson Palmer—a different example but still one worth sharing. Palmer sat out his entire rookie season, making the 2004 season his first as a starter and 2005 his second. In 2005, he upped his completion percentage by almost seven points, threw a league-high 32 touchdowns and finished with a passer rating of 101.2.
Even on the lower end of the spectrum, improvement can be found.
Vince Young upped his completion percentage by over 10 points from Year 1 to 2. Geno Smith was awful as a rookie but far more competitive in his second season, with better numbers in terms of completion percentage, touchdown and interception percentage, and passer rating. Mark Sanchez saw his passer rating jump by over 12 points as a second-year starter. Even Blaine Gabbert improved his passer rating by 12 points.
There are counterexamples.
Mike Glennon fell off the map in 2014 after throwing 19 touchdowns against nine interceptions during his rookie season. Sam Bradford saw steep declines in completion percentage, touchdowns and passer rating on a bad St. Louis Rams team. Brandon Weeden did some encouraging things as a rookie but managed just five starts in his second season. Griffin III crashed back to earth. Hard.
Still, the instances of improvement far outweigh the declines.
Of course, this should be the expectation. The professional game is new, fast and unknown for rookies. After nearly a full year of starts and another offseason, the game starts to slow down, and statistics naturally improve.
Thanks to a historically strong rookie season, in which he had a higher completion percentage and averaged more yards per attempt than Tom Brady, Bridgewater's bar for improvement has been set high.
Wilson, Roethlisberger and Ryan all needed to produce great second seasons to improve on their first. And for the most part, they did. Wilson's 101.2 passer rating was the fourth best ever by a second-year quarterback (min. 10 starts), while Roethlisberger's 98.6 was sixth best.
Wilson became a star in 2013, securing a Pro Bowl invite and a Super Bowl ring. Roethlisberger battled knee injuries but eventually helped the Steelers win a Lombardi Trophy. Ryan, meanwhile, dealt with a turf toe injury and the absence of star running back Michael Turner. His Falcons still finished 9-7.
This isn't to say that Bridgewater needs to win a Super Bowl in 2015. The Vikings have a decent enough chance to be a playoff team next season, but any Super Bowl talk is silly and premature. Improvement from Year 1 to 2 doesn't need to include a ring.
And clearly, more tangible reasons than past trends exist for expecting improvement in Minnesota.
Bridgewater will be a year stronger and wiser. Important pieces of his offensive line will return from injury. The Vikings may welcome back running back Adrian Peterson. The draft could bring a No. 1 receiver or immediate help along the offensive line. Tight end Kyle Rudolph will be healthy. The Vikings aren't expected to lose any major offensive contributor.
Even in-season improvement was evident late in the year. Over the final four games of the season, Bridgewater completed 72.2 percent of his passes and averaged 9.2 yards per attempt. His passer rating was 99.8. Is it so ridiculous to think Bridgewater could replicate—or at least come close to replicating—those numbers over a 16-game sample size?
Bridgewater displayed all the necessary traits of a top-15 quarterback as a rookie. He showed poise, pocket presence, accuracy, ability to work through injury and the mental toughness to operate in a chaotic situation. The opportunity is right there for him to take another step.
Recent history says the sophomore slump probably doesn't exist for quarterbacks. Bridgewater certainly doesn't look like a likely candidate to reverse the trend.
Zach Kruse covers the NFC North for Bleacher Report.
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