Andrew Cashner's Fulfilled Potential Could Allow for a Cashner-Cole Hamels Trade

The upside is finally here.

After 10 years of being a wanted commodity, Andrew Cashner is now at a point in his career where he can be traded for a high-value, highly proven stock. We are no longer talking about trading high upside for high upside like when the Chicago Cubs dealt him away for Anthony Rizzo in 2012, when both players were still nothing more than high-ceiling hopefuls.

The last two seasons have vaulted Cashner into the realm of a player finally living up to his billing. The Padres see this. So do other teams.

That is why the Padres should strike hard and trade Cashner in what could be the final blockbuster trade of this crazy, hectic offseason—Cashner for Cole Hamels.

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Padres still working hard to get a frontline SP. Worth noting: Ruben Amaro covets Andrew Cashner, and SD not on Cole Hamels' no-trade list.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) February 4, 2015"

The major roadblock is getting the Philadelphia Phillies to buy in.

Before signing Shields, several reports had the Padres interested in both pitchers. And according to Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports, Padres general manager A.J. Preller made an “aggressive offer” to Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. to get Hamels before signing James Shields earlier this week.

Amaro rejected the offer, although Rosenthal did not have its specifics. So far, Amaro has dropped the ball in trading his ace, Hamels, as part of Philadelphia’s rebuilding plan. If he likes Cashner, the Padres should move on that.

The situation is not so simple for the Phillies, though.

H. Rumph Jr/Associated Press

First, the Padres’ side.

That previous tweet from Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan came before the Padres made their blockbuster signing of Shields. Shields will slot wonderfully into the top of the team’s starting rotation this season, and if the Padres were to go into spring training with Shields, Cashner, Tyson Ross, Ian Kennedy, Brandon Morrow and Josh Johnson vying to fill out the rotation, fine. They have done enough at this point to be a National League playoff contender.

But when you completely remake your team by adding Matt Kemp, Wil Myers, Justin Upton and Shields, being a postseason contender is not the goal. The goal is building a World Series-caliber roster and doing so as quickly as possible. That puts the Padres in the win-now level of teams, because doing all they did in this offseason only to miss the playoffs by a game or two? Well, that is just unacceptable.

Lenny Ignelzi/Associated Press

The Padres also still have money to spend, and if they plan to no longer operate like a small-market team, then they can afford Hamels for $96 million over the next four seasons, especially if the Phillies kick in a little of that sum. As of now, the Padres have a reported payroll of approximately $99 million, according to U-T San Diego's Jeff Sanders. Sanders also notes the team has a “soft” salary cap of $105 million, and “soft” should mean “unless something great comes up.”

Hamels would be that great thing. He is way better than Cashner even in the last two seasons when Cashner has broken through as a starter to compile a 4.3 WAR (per Baseball-Reference.com). Hamels’ WAR just for last season: 6.6.

This is a no-brainer for the Padres, especially with their payroll commitments for upcoming seasons in the $50-60 million range. We know the Padres still have money to play with because they are seriously interested in Cuban prospect Yoan Moncada.

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The Padres are taking over the world: Sources say San Diego is working out Yoan Moncada today and plans to be aggressive in bidding for him.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) February 9, 2015"

Now, the Phillies’ side.

Amaro might “covet” Cashner, but he is not a piece to rebuild around. Not when he will be 29 before the end of the season and has a scary injury history. While Amaro fumbled the Hamels situation last July and all offseason, he is probably wise not to deal with San Diego here, even with Cashner’s emergence as a front-line kind of pitcher.

Cashner has been on the disabled list five times as a major leaguer, and he has had two significant stints just in the last year with the Padres. Cashner had a right elbow strain last May that put him on the DL for 24 days, and last April, he went back on with right shoulder inflammation that cost him 65 days. He made only 19 starts last season.

In total, as a major leaguer, Cashner has missed 318 days on the DL, according to Baseball Prospectus.

Don Boomer/Associated Press

Cashner can also become a free agent after the 2016 season, and Philadelphia’s rebuild, because of Amaro’s follies to this point, will take longer than just this coming season. That makes Cashner a better candidate for a team ready to win now, a team like the Padres.

However, his inclusion in a trade could be warranted if Preller had something else to offer, say a big-time prospect like Rizzo, who the Padres used to get Cashner. They do have defense-first catcher Austin Hedges, pitching prospect Matthew Wisler or outfield prospect Hunter Renfroe, but Rosenthal reported the Phillies think the Padres might “not have enough” to land Hamels from them and that Amaro’s preference is to deal with the Boston Red Sox and their bushel of prospects.

It is also quite possible Amaro would like to have Cashner and any of those aforementioned Padre prospects, just not at the price of Hamels.

The certainty here is Cashner has pitched himself into a position of value despite his injury history. What is also certain is that if the Phillies were to accept Cashner in a blockbuster trade for a durable Hamels in his peak, the Padres should not hesitate to part.

And yet another certainty: A healthy Cashner will be a key piece to San Diego’s rotation as currently constructed.

Anthony Witrado covers Major League Baseball for Bleacher Report. He spent he previous three seasons as the national baseball columnist at Sporting News and four years before that as the Brewers beat writer for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Follow Anthony on Twitter @awitrado and talk baseball here.